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TOP STORIES
European Union governments are showing more support for
the idea of new sanctions on Iran proposed by Britain, France and
Germany as a way of dissuading U.S. President Donald Trump from
pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal, diplomats say.
The U.S. sanctions on Russian aluminum producer United
Co. Rusal should be a stark warning to Iran and buyers of its oil.
This White House doesn't seem to care about the impact of its
sanctions on important markets, and oil could be next.
President Donald Trump is "perfectly fine walking
away from" the Iran nuclear deal next month if an agreement
isn't reached with European partners to address his concerns, Senate
Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said
Wednesday.
UANI IN THE NEWS
[UANI Veterans Advisory Council member Michael] Pregent
has been advocating walking away from the Iran deal, increasing
leverage on Tehran, Baghdad, and the European Union, countries which
are hesitant to invest in Iran, even with the JCPOA still in
effect... "We are going to get back the leverage we had before
Obama lifted the sanctions; put sanctions back on the central bank of
Iran. There will be sanctions on Iran's economy. We will negotiate
from a position of strength, not a position that the Obama
administration negotiated, which was simply giving into demands with
hope of success," the senior Middle East analyst stressed.
NUCLEAR DEAL
The United States is hopeful of reaching agreement with
Britain, France and Germany to address U.S. concerns about the Iran
nuclear deal, U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood told a news
conference in Geneva on Thursday. Wood said that the discussions were
"intense" ahead of a May 12 deadline, and said the United
States had concerns about a failure to address Iran's ballistic
missile program, 10-year "sunset" clauses for limits on
Iran's nuclear programs, and Iran's general behavior in the Middle
East.
French President Emmanuel Macron is cautious about his
chances of convincing Donald Trump to stick with the Iran nuclear
accord and doesn't expect any breakthrough on his visit to the U.S. next
week, his aides said... France, along with Germany and the U.K., will
seek to give Trump guarantees that the deal can work, the officials
said. Macron will offer to set out the European nations' additional
commitments in a side deal to the main accord, they said.
President Donald Trump will host German Chancellor
Angela Merkel, one of two European leaders heading to Washington as
he mulls the fate of the nuclear deal with Iran.
Pompeo himself knows the flaws of the Iran deal better
than almost anyone in Washington. As a member of Congress, he met
with European diplomats and bankers to inform them of the many risks
that attended investment in Iran's corrupt economy. If anyone can
cajole the Europeans to strengthen the nuclear agreement, it's a man
who mastered the arcane details of U.S. sanctions and Iran's illicit
money laundering.
NUCLEAR & MISSILE PROGRAMS
An unidentified air-launched cruise missile, rarely
seen, was on display at Iran's Army Day parade on Wednesday. Marked
with initials of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, the missile
features trapezoidal grid fins, most commonly associated with U.S.
missiles, and a seeker in tip. According to Ian Williams, associate
director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, this suggests the
mysterious missile is equipped with some kind of homing guidance,
possibly an infrared or TV seeker.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY
WARS
Iran's supreme leader warned top officials Wednesday
that their country was facing threats of espionage and subversion
from foreign foes who sought to undermine the Islamic Republic and
its increasingly large sphere of influence in the Middle East.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Iranian Ministry of Intelligence
officials to be ready to fight an "intelligence war" over
public opinion and the integrity of the country's ruling ideology
that required both offensive and defensive strategies to win.
As North Korea has ably demonstrated, a motivated
opponent will eventually improve their ability to defend themselves
from the United States-and Iran has far more resources than North
Korea does. A breakthrough in capability, whether it be antiship
ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons, or some similar technology,
could allow Iran to quickly catch up and effectively challenge
American military power. Iran is currently incapable of sinking a
U.S. Navy carrier, but that is not an advantage the Pentagon can
count on enjoying forever.
SYRIA & IRAN
The US-led attack on Syria's chemical weapons facilities
did not achieve most of its objectives and will not deter President
Bashar Assad, according to Israeli intelligence assessments.
Seven years after getting involved in the Syrian war,
Iran may be beginning to have second thoughts about the wisdom of an
adventure that shows no signs of ending.
Mr. Assad's latest chemical-weapons attack handed Mr.
Trump an opportunity to take advantage of rare trans-Atlantic and
bipartisan support to target Iran's activities in Syria. The
president should exploit it to the maximum.
ECONOMIC NEWS
Iranian government institutions will start reporting
foreign currency amounts in euros rather than U.S. dollars, state
media said on Wednesday as part of the country's effort to reduce its
reliance on the American currency.
Foreign intelligence services have played a role in
fueling Iran's currency crisis in an effort to destabilize the
economy, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Global markets for equities, currencies and metals have
all been whipsawed by the uncertainty over what President Donald
Trump's next geopolitical move would be. Oil's about to have a turn.
The weight of bad loans in Iranian banks could be far greater
than official estimates, and the government may not be able to afford
a fix.
It is no secret that over the past decade all Iranian
banks were negatively affected by sanctions, internal mismanagement
and corruption. Another disturbing factor in the financial sector has
been the presence of unlicensed financial institutions that distorted
the market and created unregulated competition for regulated banks.
Furthermore, corruption and government interference have led to the
accumulation of tens of billions of dollars of bad debts that will
continue to put pressure on the balance sheets of Iranian banks for
some time to come. Should these toxic assets lead to a collapse of
the banking sector, Iran will experience major economic hardship.
ISRAEL & IRAN
Israel has reportedly canceled plans to send warplanes
to a joint military exercise with the U.S. amid concern about the
buildup of Iranian forces across the border in Syria.
The ongoing debate among experts as to whether
Washington has a strategy for dealing with the Syrian civil war in
the wake of missile strikes by U.S., British, and French forces on
alleged Syrian chemical weapons facilities masks a far more urgent
strategic need: a coherent approach to the increasingly volatile
confrontation between Israel and Iran.
An Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel is likely
in the works. Where and how Tehran chooses to carry out its attack is
still unclear, but for reasons that we describe below, it is most
likely to be a rocket or missile attack launched from Syria. The
choice will define what to expect for the future of Iranian and
Israeli confrontations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday
issued a veiled warning to Iran, saying in a Memorial Day speech that
his country will defend itself against anyone that tries to harm it.
Israel faces a harsh new world as Syria's civil war
winds down: while Iran remains far away, the Iranian threat now is
next door.
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman on Wednesday warned
Israel's enemies the Jewish state would not "compromise" on
its security, telling Iran and the Hamas terrorist group to
"take this into account and take it seriously."
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran banned government bodies on Wednesday from using
the popular Telegram instant messaging app as Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office said his account would shut down to
protect national security, Iranian media reported... The order came
days after Russia - Iran's ally in the Syrian war - started blocking
the app in its territory following the company's repeated refusal to
give Russian state security services access to users' secret
messages.
While welcoming the 15 April release on bail of Iranian
educator unionist Mohammad Habibi after 44 days of detention,
Education International urges the Iranian authorities to set jailed
trade unionists free.
The European Union last week extended its existing human
rights sanctions on Iran by one year. While the EU's decision marks
an important step in penalizing Tehran for its ongoing domestic
repression, it remains insufficient to address the chronic and
systemic human rights abuses that continue to pervade the country.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
An earthquake of at least magnitude 5.5 struck in
southern Iran near the country's sole nuclear power plant on Thursday
morning, shaking countries across the Persian Gulf. There was no
immediate report of damage or injuries.
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