Tensions
Intensify As Israel Endeavors To Keep Iran From Growing A Second Proxy
State On Its Border
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
April 27, 2018
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 Tensions between
Iran and Israel have risen significantly following a military strike on an
airbase in central Syria this month that targeted an Iranian military
presence. Iran blames Israel for the strike and is threatening
to respond.
But this incident is merely a symptom of a much larger event unfolding
in the region, which is Iran's pursuit of a grand, expansionist plan for
the Middle East, and Israel's determination to disrupt this dangerous
process.
Media reports speculated about what was hit at the T4 Syrian airbase on
April 9. One report said it was an Iranian surface-to-air
missile system, while others suggested it was an Iranian armed drone program.
What's clear is that several members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) were killed in the attack on the airbase, and Iran
quickly blamed the strike on Israel. Since then, Iranian officials have
unleashed a series of threats, promising retribution.
In response, the Israeli defense establishment appears to have sent its
own warning, reportedly releasing maps of Syria that show the location of
Iranian military assets, thereby reminding the Iranians of what they stand
to lose if this conflict escalates. Israel's Defense Minister, Avigdor
Liberman, responding to a flurry of Iranian threats on Tel Aviv and Haifa,
told a Saudi media outlet that any attack on Tel Aviv would be answered by a retaliatory strike on Tehran.
Yet these events, while indicating a surge in tensions, are actually
part of a wider and more disturbing picture. Iran is following a grand,
long-term plan made up of multiple stages, which is designed to make it the
dominant Middle Eastern power, able to activate armies of terrorist-guerilla
forces.
Iran is working patiently toward this goal, employing the 'strategy of a
thousand cuts' to move into Syria.
Ideologically, Iran remains committed to the idea of exporting the
Shi'ite Islamic fundamentalist revolution, as espoused by the regime, far
and wide. From the start, it cast itself "as an Islamic Revolution for Muslims
throughout the world."
The Islamic Republic continues to view the doctrine of its founding
father and first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, as a cornerstone for
its policies, Doron Itzchakov, a research associate at the Begin Sadat
Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, told the
Investigative Project on Terrorism. Khomenei preached "Shi'ite
activism," and set up a regime based on defining the enemy as the West
and Israel, Itzchakov said.
Khomenei also called for spreading the "Guardianship of the Islamic
Jurist" model, which the regime in Tehran bases itself on, far and
wide. Later on in his life, Khomenei called for the establishment of a
"resistance axis," a call that today provides legitimacy for the
IRGC's subversive activities across the region.
The Iranian regime also creates its own definition of
"repressed" and "repressor," and uses that as a
justification for spreading its influence and military activities,
Itzchakov said.
Iran's religious elite use the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the
eight-year long Iran-Iraq war, as proof of divine backing, and they
regularly make use of concepts of defensive and offensive jihad to justify
Iran's activities, he added.
To be sure, some segments of Iran's population do not buy into the regime's position, and have
recently become more emboldened to say so. Chanting
"not Gaza, not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran," Iranian
protesters, driven by major economic troubles, recently made it clear they
oppose spreading out in the region and investing treasure for that purpose,
before the protests were crushed.
Despite such protests, the Iranian regime continues to exploit
deep-rooted hatred for Israel, a hatred that was embodied by Khomeini, as
"a mechanism to prove that it is sticking to his path, and therefore,
when it comes to Israel, there is a consensus among the various factions in
the Iranian regime," Itzchakov added.
Iran relies heavily on Khomenei's tenets, but there is no doubt that its
program to spread Iranian hegemony in the area stems "from
geopolitical and geo-strategic motivations, which illustrate its ambition
to lead the Muslim world," he said.
This strategy, if successful, would turn Iran into an actor to be
reckoned with: a state able to control large swaths of territories beyond
its borders. As part of that vision, Iran is creating a land corridor
linking Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea, via Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon – a
corridor it could use to move military forces and proxies.
The IRGC was once limited to being the overseer of ground operations in
Syria, organizing, supporting, and advising the combatants fighting for the
Assad regime. But now, it is attempting to set up its own permanent
military presence in Syria.
Iran would like to flood Syria with more radical Shi'ite armed proxies,
and insert its own military capabilities as well.
This vision, if left unchecked, could lead to the creation of Iranian
air force bases, and naval ports appearing in Syria. The land corridor
could be used to move Iranian military formations into Syria. All of this
would turn Syria into one big Iranian forward base, allowing it to threaten
Israel in an unprecedented manner.
Meanwhile, Iran seems willing to wait patiently for the nuclear deal to
expire, so that it can reactivate the program from a position of greater
military and economic strength, and eventually produce nuclear weapons.
Disrupting the plan
Israel has no intention of letting this plan unfold. So far, most
efforts to disrupt the Iranian activities in Syria have occurred quietly,
and the Iranians have been too focused on pursuing their plan and
consolidating their presence to get involved in a big fight with Israel.
But recently, Iran has been signaling a new willingness to escalate the
situation. It sent an armed drone into Israel from Syria in February,
launching it from the same T4 base that was struck this month. Rhetorical
threats from Iran, which have been ongoing for years, continue with full
force. Ali Shirazi, a senior aid to Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei, recently repeated an often-stated Iranian threat to destroy
Israeli cities. "If Israel wants to continue its treacherous existence
... it should avoid stupid measures. If they give excuses to Iran, Tel Aviv
and Haifa will be destroyed," Shirazi said.
Lebanon has already been lost to Iran. Hizballah is the world's most
heavily armed and best organized non-state army. It utterly dominates
Lebanon.
But Israel has determined that it cannot allow Syria to become a second
Lebanon. Israel is determined to stop Syria from becoming flooded with
Iranian missiles, rockets, terrorist cells, and Shi'ite militias.
Jerusalem has been using advanced air power and intelligence gathering
to enforce its red lines.
Now, the ball is back in Iran's court and Tehran will have to decide if
it is willing to risk crossing those lines again.
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
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