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TOP STORIES
From airplanes to oilfields, billions of dollars are on
the line for international corporations as President Donald Trump
weighs whether to pull America out of Iran's nuclear deal with world
powers. Regardless of where they are headquartered, virtually all
multinational corporations do business or banking in the U.S.,
meaning any return to pre-deal sanctions could torpedo deals made
after the 2015 agreement came into force.
Hezbollah and its political allies won just over half
the seats in Lebanon's parliamentary elections, unofficial results
showed, boosting an Iranian-backed movement fiercely opposed to
Israel and underlining Tehran's growing regional clout.
Well I'm encouraged by what the President has said so
far and I hope he does pull out because I give you the perspective of
somebody who was in the Senate for 24 years, worked with people in
both parties to put sanctions, economic pressure on Iran with a
singular goal which was to denuclearize Iran, to stop their nuclear
weapons development program.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The May 12 renegotiation deadline for the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action is just days away. President Donald
Trump is still apt to withdraw from the agreement unless world
leaders can come together and address its flaws. As this deadline
draws near, I can't help but think of how distinctly history has
repeated itself. After all, it was just decades ago that officials
were calling for reform of a signed agreement with North Korea. Now,
with Iran, we have two rogue nations using the threat of nuclear weapons
and missile technology to hold the world hostage and threaten
international safety.
The Trump administration should use the Israeli
revelations as a new source of leverage to "fix" the deal and
not simply walk away from it.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
As a looming deadline approaches for the Iran nuclear
deal, there may be a plan to prevent the United States from pulling
out of the agreement -- essentially a workaround that would help
President Trump deliver on a campaign promise of renegotiating the
deal... [T]he U.S. and its European allies would create a proposal
that addresses Mr. Trump's concerns about the agreement -- ballistic
missiles, military site inspections and the sunset clause -- thus
allowing Mr. Trump to claim he "fixed" the 2015
international agreement without actually altering a word of the
agreement and without Iran's consent. It would be a workaround to
help the U.S. and its allies promise to punish Iran for actions that
were not included in the 2015 deal. This plan wouldn't include
Russia, China and Iran.
On the streets of Tehran, every day seems to bring more
worry and fear ahead of President Donald Trump's decision this week
on whether to pull America out of the nuclear deal with Iran.
Exchange shop windows that once showed rates for Iranian rial to U.S.
dollar transactions have gone blank, as black-market rates have
skyrocketed to 70,000 rials to the dollar, far higher than the newly
government-imposed rate of 42,000 for $1.
President Hassan Rouhani hinted on Monday that Iran
could remain in its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers even if the
United States dropped out but Tehran would fiercely resist U.S.
pressure to limit its influence in the Middle East.
Churchill's famous conclusion was that democracy
constituted the "worst form of government - except for all those
other forms that have been tried." He was not succumbing to
pessimism; on the contrary, faced with an array of unappetizing
options, there is a deep wisdom in choosing the one with the smallest
downside and then fixing its limitations. So it is with the Iran
nuclear agreement that President Trump is now reviewing, with May 12
- this Saturday - looming as the next deadline for him to pull out of
the deal.
The foreign ministers of France and Germany say they
will hold on to the nuclear agreement with Iran, regardless of the
upcoming U.S. decision on whether to nix the deal.
Israel's prime minister on Sunday stepped up his calls
for world powers to end the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran as President
Donald Trump decides whether to withdraw from the agreement by next
week. In a briefing to foreign reporters.
John Kerry's bid to save one of his most significant
accomplishments as secretary of state took him to New York on a
Sunday afternoon two weeks ago, where, more than a year after he left
office, he engaged in some unusual shadow diplomacy with a
top-ranking Iranian official... With the Iran deal facing its gravest
threat since it was signed in 2015, Kerry has been on an aggressive
yet stealthy mission to preserve it, using his deep lists of contacts
gleaned during his time as the top US diplomat to try to apply
pressure on the Trump administration from the outside.
Once Trump is out, Washington can get serious about the
regime's misbehavior.
Having found so much common ground on the broad
principles for an improved Iran strategy, it would be a particular
shame if the negotiations still failed. Rather than allowing the
disagreement of what at this stage are only details, albeit important
ones, over Iran turn into a transatlantic crisis, a renewed resolve
to confront Tehran's destructive behavior ought to reinvigorate the
European-American partnership.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Rudy Giuliani pushed for regime change in Iran on
Saturday, saying President Donald Trump is "as committed to
regime change as we are.".
CONGRESS & IRAN
Texas Congressman Mac Thornberry said on Fox News Sunday
it would be a mistake for Trump to scuttle the nuclear accord reached
with Tehran. "I would counsel against it," he said.
SYRIA, ISRAEL & IRAN
An Israeli minister on Monday threatened that the Jewish
state could kill Syrian President Bashar Assad if his regime doesn't
prevent Iranian forces from launching attacks against Israel from his
territory. The warning came amid reports that Tehran is planning a
revenge missile strike against Israel.
BUSINESS RISK
Richard Grenell, the newly confirmed US ambassador to
Germany, said in an exclusive interview with Fox News on Thursday
that German companies should stop trade with the Islamic Republic of
Iran because Tehran sponsors terrorism.
SANCTIONS
After more than a
year of assessing how effective OPEC and friends have been at keeping
a lid on supply, it's fair to ask how much more they can produce.
This is really a question about spare production capacity -- and it's
an urgent one. President Donald Trump has to decide by May 12 whether
to extend waivers on Iranian sanctions, and all the indications are
that he won't. The drop in supply could easily exceed a million
barrels a day, if the president decides to impose extra-territorial
sanctions on anyone doing business with Iran -- would-be buyers could
decide that the safest course is to shun the country's oil.
OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Oil futures rose sharply in Asian trading Monday,
hitting new 3 1/2-year highs as the U.S. benchmark hovered around $70
a barrel and a deadline to renew waivers of U.S. sanctions on Iran
loomed.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The Iranian authorities must stop their ongoing
harassment campaign against Raheleh Rahemipour, a 65-year-old human
rights defender, who faces trial for a second time in reprisal for a
complaint filed with the UN on the enforced disappearance of her
brother and his infant daughter, said Amnesty International today.
RUSSIA & IRAN
Russia will stand by the Iran nuclear deal and develop
closer ties with Iran if U.S. President Donald Trump withdraws from
the agreement on May 12, a senior Russian official said on
Friday.
Lebanon held on Sunday its first parliamentary elections
in nine years, as citizens expressed cautious optimism that the
country's rigid, oft-deadlocked sectarian political system could be
swayed. Behind the scenes, however, one of the world's leading powers
has quietly eyed the small state as a potential ground to project its
power in the Middle East and into the Mediterranean. But it won't be
easy.
As Israel and Iran increasingly square off against each
other amid Syria's multi-dimensional war, it is Russia that finds
itself between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
HEZBOLLAH & LEBANON
In March, an Iran state-affiliated media outlet
inappropriately published a speech by Lebanese Hezbollah chief Hassan
Nasrallah. The speech was a private - candid - address to an Iranian
audience in Beirut in the same month. After backlash in Arab media
against the speech, including Nasrallah's declaration of loyalty to
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei above all, the Iranian outlets retracted
the article. Hezbollah denied that Nasrallah had delivered the
speech. The retraction and denial, however, strongly suggest a
cover-up attempt. The speech was meant for internal distribution,
thus making it a valuable document. It was likely addressed to
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel.
What will the situation of the Lebanese state be if
Hezbollah manages to cobble a majority in parliamentary elections?
IRAQ & IRAN
Iran may be working to establish a key strategic
foothold at the tip of the 4,800-foot Sinjar Mountain in Iraq that
could leave Israel and regional U.S. forces in the crosshairs of
potential attacks.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Teachers went on strike in central Iran's city of Yazd.
Steelworkers and hospital staff walked off the job in the southwest
city of Ahvaz. Railway employees protested near Tabriz. And a bus
drivers union in Tehran battled the private companies that control
many city routes.
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