Friday, May 4, 2018

Eye on Iran: Top Trump Ally Predicts Iran Deal Will Hold Up, for Now



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TOP STORIES


Rep. Mark Meadows suggested that the president doesn't want a withdrawal to get in the way of ongoing discussions with North Korea and China.


European powers still want to hand Donald Trump next week a plan to save the Iran nuclear deal, but they have also started work on protecting EU-Iranian business ties if the U.S. president makes good on a threat to withdraw, six sources told Reuters.


Air France is cutting its Joon subsidiary's service between Paris and Tehran to the summer season only, blaming a poor economic performance over two years in operation. 

UANI IN THE NEWS


President Macron and Chancellor Merkel will do their best to save the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), while simultaneously seeking ways to pressure Iran to cease behaviour that has engendered significant international condemnation and sanctions. To do so we need more than threats. The Iranian regime needs to understand that if it behaves responsibly, access to international markets, technology, and financial systems will follow, and with it, economic success and domestic political stability. The priority for Europe and the US should therefore be to develop an incentive architecture that ensures responsible behaviour.


I think President Trump should remain in the accord but continue to work with our European partners to fix the deal. If he withdraws on May 12, he really risks maying the U.S.'s behavior the U.S., as opposed to Iran's intransigence in the region, support for terrorism, and other problematic activity. And the president would really be best served in trying to, now that he has John Bolton and Mike Pompeo on board, negotiating with our European allies to make the deal more rigorous and better.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


An Israeli satellite imaging company on Thursday released images showing what it described as "unusual" movement around the Iranian Fordo nuclear facility, a one-time uranium enrichment plant buried deep underground that was converted to a research center as part of the 2015 nuclear deal.


Donald Trump seems set on pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal next week, with U.S. officials suggesting that any initial diplomatic turbulence will be followed by negotiations for a new accord.


Iran's foreign minister took to YouTube on Thursday to criticize President Donald Trump's threat to withdraw from the nuclear deal, saying Iran will not "renegotiate or add onto" the atomic accord.


It's time to start preparing for what happens after the United States exits the deal. The media and many think-tank experts will be apoplectic. The Europeans will rail about yet another transatlantic divide. But in the end, none of that will matter. What matters is whether President Trump is finally willing to learn from the mistakes of 15 years of transatlantic diplomacy with Iran. That will involve implementing a maximum pressure campaign modeled on his efforts on North Korea.


The JCPOA, then, isn't really an arms-control agreement; it's just cover for American inaction, and for President Obama's acute desire to leave the Middle East. So, let us go post-JCPOA... We can use America's approach to the Soviet Union as a model: Contain, roll back, and squeeze.


Make no mistake: the Iranian archives that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently presented to the world are very important. Maybe the information we have seen so far is not new, although there is a multitude of documents that we might still hear about. But it comes straight from the horse's mouth. These are Iranian documents, which lay out their nuclear plans and activities in a very clear and unambiguous manner. There's no room for any doubt that Iran was working on a military nuclear program.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


One of Donald Trump's main arguments for cancelling the Iran nuclear deal has been Iran's role in devastating conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon

SYRIA, ISRAEL & IRAN

IDF believes Iran won't strike back before Trump's deadline on nuclear deal, elections in Lebanon.


[Israeli] Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman sought assurances from Russia on Thursday that its advanced missile defense systems won't be used against Israeli jets over Syria, and he called on Moscow to condemn Iran for its repeated threats against the Jewish state.


On an official visit to Damascus this week, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy committee said that the Islamic Republic would retaliate against Israel for last month's strikes on an air Syrian military base that killed several Iranian nationals.


The commander of the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan militia unit fighting under the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' leadership in Syria, has rejected media reports that missiles hit its military base near Syria's northwest over the weekend.

ECONOMIC NEWS


The 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers - the US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany - lifted international sanctions on Iran's economy, including those on oil, trade and banking sectors.In exchange, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to abandon the agreement and will make a decision on 12 May about whether to reintroduce sanctions from his country. So, as that deadline draws nearer, Reality Check examines how Iran's economy has fared since the nuclear accord came into effect.


Newly arrived in the city of Tabriz in northwestern Iran, Corneilis Vamoorschot wanted to change his euros into rials, but quickly realised it wouldn't be a simple task. "We wanted to change at the bank, but the banks accept neither euros or dollars. We came to the foreign exchange bureau, but they had no money," said the Dutch tourist, enchanted by the city's brick bazaar, despite the inconvenience.


Iran is seeing bumper oil exports. But that doesn't mean production is on a similar trend.

HUMAN RIGHTS


Iran's intelligence operatives have arrested two, and possibly three, Iranians with British connections in the past two months, human rights activists and others said Thursday.


An Iranian academic named Dr. Abu El Fadl Beheshti attacked and insulted Ahwazi activist Shaima Silawi during a seminar held on Wednesday in Brussels, involving a film about the victims of mines in Iraq and Iran. In the video about the incident, which was widely shared on social media sites, an Iranian activist who claimed to be working for the security of the Iranian embassy in Brussels is seen beating up and insulting the activist Shaima Silawi, a representative of the Ahwaz Human Rights Organisation (AHRO).


Arabs have long said they face discrimination in Iran, but two human rights groups say that hundreds of people have been arrested around Ahvaz in the last few weeks alone amid protests against water and power cuts, poverty and alienation.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz called, on Thursday, King Mohammed VI of Morocco. King Salman affirmed Saudi Arabia's stand with the brotherly Morocco Kingdom against all threats to its security, stability and territorial integrity, reported Saudi Press Agency. During the telephone call, the two leaders stressed the need to unify positions and coordinate efforts to confront the aggressive acts of the Iranian regime, its interventions in the affairs of Arab countries, and its policies which aim at destabilizing security and stability in the Arab world.

TERRORISM & EXTREMISM


Hezbollah has expanded its regional clout by recruiting thousands of young men from Lebanon's Bekaa Valley to fight in Syria. But the war next door is producing a tide of discontent at home for the Lebanese militia and political group ahead of elections on Sunday.

IRAQ & IRAN


With Iraq's May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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