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TOP STORIES
The U.S. took a step toward cutting Iran off from the
global economy on Thursday, levying sanctions on a financing network
and accusing the country's central bank of helping funnel U.S.
dollars to the blacklisted elite military unit known as the Quds Force.
The Israeli military said it struck dozens of
Iran-linked military targets in Syria on Thursday in response to
rocket fire, marking a significant escalation in regional hostilities
a little more than a day after the United States withdrew from the
Iran nuclear deal. Israel said the attacks followed a volley of
rockets directed at Israeli positions in the Golan Heights, which
caused no casualties.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister told CNN on Wednesday
that his country stands ready to build nuclear weapons if Iran
restarts its atomic weapons program.
UANI IN THE NEWS
While the United States has debated the JCPOA, Iran has
advanced in Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere with little resistance, and
prospects for war between Iran and Israel, or Iran and Saudi Arabia,
have increased significantly. What Washington really needs is a new
Iran policy, not just a nuclear policy-and the will to roll up its
sleeves and carry it out.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Having returned from North Korea on Thursday, Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo will embark on talks to persuade allies in
Europe, the Middle East, and Asia to press Iran to return to
negotiations over its nuclear and missile programs, U.S. officials
said.
"I hope to be able to make a deal with them, a good
deal, a fair deal - a good deal for them, better for them,"
Trump said at a campaign rally. "But we cannot allow them to
have nuclear weapons. We must be able to go to a site and check that
site. We have to be able to go into their military bases to see
whether or not they're cheating."
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini will host a
meeting with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany on
Tuesday in Brussels to discuss the Iran nuclear deal after U.S.
President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of it. The group will
also then meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the
European External Action Service said in a statement.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told Iran's
president that she supports maintaining a big-power nuclear accord,
following the withdrawal of the United States, as long as Tehran
upholds its side of the deal... Merkel called for talks to be held in
a broader format on Iran's ballistic missile program and its regional
activities - including in Syria and Yemen, her office said in a
statement. She condemned overnight attacks by Iranian forces on Israeli
military positions in the Golan Heights, and called on Iran to
contribute to de-escalation in the region, the statement added.
The White House wants intrusive inspections of Iran's
nuclear sites to continue despite President Donald Trump's withdrawal
from a landmark accord on Tehran's atomic program, US officials have
told AFP.
The theory behind the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action, or JCPOA, was that the Iranian regime would, in the interests
of its own people, trade its nuclear ambitions for economic
incentives. But rather than focusing on behaving responsibly, Tehran
has poured billions of dollars into military adventures abroad,
spreading an arc of death and destruction across the Middle East from
Yemen to Syria. Meanwhile, the Iranian people have suffered at home
from a tanking currency, rising inflation, stagnant wages and a
spiraling environmental crisis... [Withdrawing from the deal]
reversed an ill-advised and dangerous policy and set us on a new
course that will address the aggressive and hostile behavior of our
enemies, while enhancing our ties with partners and allies.
Amid President Trump's announced withdrawal from the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran has threatened to expand its
nuclear program beyond the restraints mandated in that agreement.
Assessing the potential significance of this threat requires a closer
look at the technical details behind the JCPOA and the regime's
current nuclear capabilities.
Iran's bold rocket assault on Israeli forces Thursday
signals an unwillingness to just take a diplomatic approach to the
U.S. exit from the nuclear agreement, and it's likely to do
everything it can to get around sanctions.
One of the lines Iranian diplomats and supporters like
to repeat is that the Islamic Republic will not change its behavior
in response to pressure. Sanctions and threats don't work, they say;
engagement and mutual respect do... [But] hreatening Iran's regime
has worked in the past and may be working again now.
Israelis are celebrating. President Donald Trump's
decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, formally named the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, makes America, Israel and the
world much safer.
Now we have the US on one side, Iran on the other, and 5
others in between. Iran will exploit the disunity. But don't blame
Trump for that. Blame the original sin
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
[R]enewed sanctions on Iran could, once again, send its
economy into a downward spiral. Over the past several weeks, Iran's
rial has lost 25 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar, while
inflation is hovering at around 8 percent. Iranians are also
struggling with a severe credit crisis that has seen several banks go
bankrupt. Unemployment is above 11 percent and citizens have taken to
the streets to protest mismanagement and government corruption.
The U.S. decision to withdraw from a nuclear deal with
Iran further hampers a tentative effort by a handful of smaller
European banks to plug the Middle Eastern country back into the
global financial system.
The Trump administration has decided to withhold its
power to compel the U.N. Security Council to reinstate wide-ranging
U.N. sanctions on Iran, including a series of measures that would ban
Tehran from testing its ballistic missiles, according to senior U.S.
officials. The move underscores the Trump administration's preference
for going it alone and imposing instead a range of old and new U.S.
sanctions aimed at inflicting maximum economic pain on Iran and its
business partners. It could also mean that while President Donald
Trump pulled out of the Iran deal, he has stopped short of blowing it
up altogether.
Once bitten, twice shy-unless you're a French car maker.
Peugeot and Renault are among the few companies that have bet on Iran
since the 2015 nuclear deal. Their history risks repeating
itself.
Eni has recouped all outstanding payments that Iran owed
the Italian oil company for past investments and has no plans for any
new projects, Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi told shareholders at
its annual meeting on Thursday.
The snap-back of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports
may well see international shipping companies, which have carried
more than half of Iran's oil exports over the past six months, pull
back from the trade, leaving the Persian Gulf country to depend much
more on its own tanker fleet, writes Bloomberg oil strategist Julian
Lee.
Kim Jong-un tried it in North Korea, Nicholas Maduro
tried it in Venezula - now Hassan Rouhani could begin experimenting
with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as the country braces for fresh, US
led, Iran sanctions.
President Donald Trump's announcement that the US will
leave the deal means that Washington will begin reinstating
sanctions. But what will the economic impact be on Iran and its
trading partners?
[T]he end of [the Iran nuclear] deal is now a fact of
life for the United States... [W]hat will it mean for your business?
Even if you don't do business with anyone in Iran--most U.S. companies
don't--there's a good chance your company will experience some
effects of the decision.
Oil markets have so far reacted to President Donald
Trump's decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal without
either enthusiasm or panic - without even much apparent interest.
There are many good reasons for this, but also many reasons to think
oil markets' complacency could change. Fortunately, the Obama-era
sanctions that Trump has moved to reimpose have some lesser-known
safety valves should oil markets later overheat as a result of the
Iran decision.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said on Thursday that European
nations are not supporting President Trump's decision to exit the
Iran nuclear deal because of business ties to the country.
SYRIA, ISRAEL & IRAN
The White House on Thursday condemned rocket attacks
that Israel says Iran launched overnight from its bases in Syria amid
rapidly escalating tensions in the region. "We strongly support
Israel's right to act in self-defense," the White House said in
a statement. "The Iranian regime's deployment into Syria of
offensive rocket and missile systems aimed at Israel is an
unacceptable and highly dangerous development for the entire Middle
East."
Israel's blistering counterattack to Iranian rocket fire
at its soldiers early Thursday shows the country is determined to
dislodge Tehran's forces in Syria from its border, despite the risk
of a wider Middle East war..
Iranian forces in Syria reportedly did not ask the
Syrian government, or even notify Syrian leaders, before launching 20
missiles at Israel last night, [Israel's] Channel 2 reports. The
report suggests that there is some disquiet in Damascus over Iran's
policy of using Syrian soil to attack Israel. Russian leaders, too,
are unhappy with Iranian entrenchment in Syria, and are not planning
on using Moscow's significant forces in Syria to limit Israel's
operations against Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had
crossed a "red line" by firing rockets at Israeli forces
from Syria, leading to major Israeli air strikes on Thursday in the
neighbouring country.
Iran on Friday supported Syria's right to defend itself
against aggression from Israel, state TV reported, accusing others of
remaining silent over the attacks on Tehran's key regional
ally.
Iranian President Hassan Rohani said Thursday evening
that the Islamic Republic does not want "new tensions" in
the Middle East, AFP reported, in his first response since the
overnight flare-up between Israel and Tehran. Earlier Thursday, an
Iranian official denied that Iran was behind an overnight barrage of
missiles on Israel, saying it does not have military forces in Syria,
despite the fact that Israel blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guard for
the attack... The deputy head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hossein
Salami, said that diplomacy will not help Iran and that resistance is
the only way forward.
The United Nations is calling for a halt in hostilities
in Syria to avoid "a new conflagration" in the Middle East,
while Israel is demanding that the world body condemn an Iranian
missile attack.
Britain condemns Iran's attacks on Israel and calls on
Russia to use its influence in Syria to stop any further attacks, a
spokesman for Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday, after
Iranian forces fired rockets at Israeli army bases.
The latest clash indicates that Tehran has underestimated how far the
IDF will go to prevent Iranian military entrenchment on its northeast
border.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Political prisoners have long been used by governments
in their political chess games; it's telling that so many of them in
recent history have been held in either Iran or North Korea.
Much will be written about what the U.S. and its allies
should do on the nuclear file. Iran's leaders have made vague
threats, and the West must prepare for the prospect of losing
visibility into the country's declared nuclear infrastructure. That
said, the most urgent task now for Trump is increasing the odds of
success for Iran's democracy movement.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
President Trump sent two private letters to Middle East
allies in recent weeks complaining that the United States has spent
too much money in the region and urging them to pick up more of the
burden as part of a coalition to counter Iran's influence, a person
familiar with them said Thursday... Mr. Trump essentially enshrined
this point in a letter that was sent a few weeks ago to the leaders
of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain...
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
In a statement, the Gaza-based terror group saying it
regards "the Israeli occupation's military attack on Syria as
further proof of its acts of terrorism in the region and the threat
it poses for the Middle East peace and stability."
IRAQ & IRAN
President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the
Iranian nuclear deal has cast a shadow over an already fraught
election in Iraq, where Tehran and Washington have vied for influence
since the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003... Whoever
wins must balance Iraq's interests - and the need to reduce the
struggling economy's dependence on oil - with those of the United
States and Iran, whose intensifying rivalry makes that more
difficult.
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