Thursday, June 27, 2019

Eye on Iran: Iran's Supreme Leader Vows Never To Capitulate To U.S. Sanctions



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In his first public comments since President Trump aborted an imminent attack on Iran last week, its top leader on Wednesday ruled out any negotiations with Washington and said that only the threat of military force provides protection from American domination. "Negotiation is an effort to deceive into doing what the U.S. desires," said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to the English translation on his official website.


U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he was "not talking boots on the ground" should he take military action against Iran and that he had "unlimited time" to try to forge an agreement with Tehran. Iran suggested it was just one day from breaching a limit in the 2015 nuclear deal that restricted its stockpile of uranium, a move that would pressure European countries aiming to be neutral to pick sides. 


European governments will double down this week on their efforts to keep alive economic ties with Iran, officials said, providing a credit line to help a special mechanism establish a route for trade between Iran and the West. The Europeans are planning to take the step despite Tehran's threat to disregard some commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal and in the face of Washington's demand to maximize economic pressure against Iran.

UANI IN THE NEWS


...While Toby Dershowitz, Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) senior vice president for government relations and strategy, said: "As victims of its corruption, the people of Iran know best that their government runs amok of global standards. But the security and integrity of the global financial system are also victims of Iran's willful and persistent failure to comply with FATF's standards." While United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) chief executive and co-founder Mark Wallace said: "As long as Iran chooses to remain an extremist regime, it should remain closed for business."

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Iran told the UN Security Council on Wednesday that it cannot "alone" save the nuclear deal, turning up pressure on the Europeans, Russia and China as it moved toward a possible breach of its commitments to limit its nuclear activities. "Iran has done a lot and much more than its fair share to preserve the nuclear deal," Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi told a council meeting.


Iran is set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal for the first time on Thursday, piling pressure on European powers attempting to salvage it from crippling U.S. sanctions and avert a slide toward war. Iran's atomic energy agency has said the country will probably exceed a cap on stockpiles of low-grade uranium on June 27, and could early next month raise enrichment purity beyond a 3.67% limit put in place to prevent Iran from making weapons-grade material.


Amid escalating tensions with the United States, Iran said on June 17 that by Thursday it would surpass the limit on the uranium supply permitted under the 2015 nuclear agreement, a potentially combustible new phase in the country's confrontation with Washington. The declaration came days after the United States accused Iran of attacking two oil tankers, and days before Iran shot down an American drone and President Trump approved, then aborted, a strike in retaliation.


Iran will exceed limits on low-enriched uranium set by the 2015 nuclear accord unless Britain, France and Germany take timely, practical steps to preserve the agreement that is "now in critical condition," the Iranian ambassador to the U.N. said Wednesday. Majid Takht Ravanchi told a Security Council meeting that the three European countries, which support the deal, and the United States, which pulled out of it, will have to "accept the full responsibility for any possible consequences" if serious steps aren't taken.


Iran's United Nations envoy described his country's nuclear deal with world powers as being in "critical condition" on Wednesday and warned "Iran alone cannot, shall not and will not take all of the burdens anymore to preserve" the 2015 agreement.  "As long as illegal sanctions are in place, one cannot be expected to trust the offer for an honest and genuine dialogue," Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi said of talks with the United States.


Iran is still short of the maximum amount of enriched uranium it is allowed to have under its deal with major powers but it is on course to reach that limit at the weekend, the latest data from U.N. nuclear inspectors shows, diplomats say. This makes it unlikely Iran will follow through on its threat to violate one of the nuclear deal's central restrictions on Thursday, which could have unravelled the pact altogether. It also sets up a meeting with other signatories on Friday aimed at saving the accord, which is straining under U.S. pressure.


French President Emmanuel Macron warned Iran on Thursday not to quit its 2015 nuclear deal or give signals that it intended to do so, and said he would discuss efforts to avoid military escalation with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S. allies in Europe have been alarmed by an escalation between the United States and Iran in recent weeks, which culminated last week when Trump ordered air strikes only to call them off minutes before impact. 


Iran is on the verge of crossing a key line included in the nuclear deal it reached with the U.S. and other powers in 2015. As soon as Thursday, it's expected to announce that its uranium stockpiles have exceeded limits set by the deal. "I think it's a major bridge for them to go across," says David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, which monitors Iran's nuclear program.


Europe urged Iran on Wednesday to continue implementing its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal and not disregard them in retaliation for the reimposition of U.S. economic sanctions. "Today we may be at a critical juncture regarding the future of the JCPOA," European Union Ambassador to the U.N. Joao Vale de Almeida said, using the acronym for the nuclear deal. "Yet, it should be recalled that the JCPOA is a nuclear agreement that has been working and delivering on its goals. 


If the US had not pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran would be a stronger aggressor today because the restrictions on its nuclear program would have been lifted eventually, US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook told Al Arabiya English on the sidelines of the 'Peace to Prosperity' workshop in Bahrain. "We have put in place the right foreign policy at the right time- it is long overdue.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  


The head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday that recent U.S. sanctions against Tehran were a desperate measure after downing of U.S. drone in the Gulf of Oman by Iran.  "The recent U.S. sanctions against the Guards commanders show their desperation and anger in face of Iranian prowess," Hossein Salami was quoted as saying by the state news agency IRNA.  Salami said after downing of a U.S. drone by the Guards, U.S. resorted to "illogical and senseless" reactions to save face.
  

The United States has asked the UN Security Council to update its sanctions blacklist on Iran after complaining of lapses in enforcing travel bans and asset freezes, according to a letter seen by AFP on Wednesday. The push for tougher enforcement of UN sanctions came amid soaring tensions between the United States and Iran following Washington's decision to impose new sanctions on Tehran and recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf.


China is buying Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions and providing what Tehran hopes will be a financial lifeline for the country's buckling economy. Although Beijing customs data show crude purchases from Iran are down month-on-month, China is still importing Tehran's oil despite US measures designed to cut exports to "zero". Last week the Chinese received their first delivery of an Iranian oil cargo since the Trump administration in May scrapped exemptions on Iranian sanctions.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS


Richard Ratcliffe calls what Iran is doing "hostage diplomacy." He has been on a hunger strike for 12 days. Camped outside the Iranian Embassy in London, his message is simple: His wife, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, must be freed. Nazanin was arrested while visiting her mother with her then 2-year-old daughter in Tehran three years ago and ultimately convicted of trying to overthrow the regime, charges her family calls false. They believe she is nothing but a bargaining chip.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


Iran's supreme leader said his country wouldn't back down in the face of U.S. sanctions, days after President Trump targeted him personally with a new round of measures to further isolate the country. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday called U.S. pressure "obvious tyranny" and labeled Washington the "most hated, evil government in the world," demonstrating how the U.S. and Iran remain locked in a standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and American economic sanctions.


The U.S. special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, is meeting with French, German and British top diplomats in Paris for talks on the Persian Gulf crisis at a time when European powers are trying to save the 2015 nuclear deal struck with Tehran. European countries want to avoid a further escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran and are trying to convince Iran not to leave the nuclear deal, which the U.S. pulled out of last year.


Iran warned the United States against violating its borders, with parliament speaker Ali Larijani threatening a stronger reaction, the Tasnim news agency said on Thursday, a week after Tehran shot down a U.S. drone, spiking tension between them.  "The downing of their drone was a good experience for them to avoid any aggression against our borders," the semi-official agency quoted Larijani as saying late on Wednesday. 


U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that any war between the United States and Iran would be swift, although he reiterated his desire to avoid a military confrontation even as he blasted Tehran's leaders. "I hope we don't, but we're in a very strong position if something should happen," Trump told Fox Business Network when asked if a war was brewing. "I'm not talking boots on the ground ... I'm just saying if something would happen, it wouldn't last very long."


U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in an interview with local media in India on Wednesday that the United States had done everything it could to de-escalate tensions with Iran.  "If there is conflict, if there is war, if there is a kinetic activity, it will be because the Iranians made that choice. I hope that they do not," Pompeo told broadcaster India Today from New Delhi, where he is on an official visit.


As fear of a conflict with Iran rises, Democrats want to make clear that they will not support any offensive military action against the country unless there is prior authorization from Congress. But they have already come to the realization that their message will have little practical effect, as the Republican-led Senate won't pass a duo of Democratic measures.


Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey was the only candidate who refused to commit to re-entering the Iran nuclear deal on Wednesday during the first 2020 Democratic debate of the presidential campaign.  Ten candidates, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New York Mayor Bill De Blasio and former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke, faced off around issues such as healthcare, gun laws, abortion and immigration.


On Tuesday, President Trump tweeted a warning to Iran that an attack "on anything American will be met with great and overwhelming force. In some areas, overwhelming will mean obliteration." The threat comes days after the New York Times reported that Trump backed down from retaliating against Iran for downing a U.S. surveillance drone. People have speculated about the reasons for Trump's decision to back down, especially given his statement that the expected casualties from a U.S. strike weren't "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone."


In a world of global financial markets, 5G networks and cyberwar, geography still rules. The two shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, each two miles wide, hold the key to the Persian Gulf and roughly half of the world's proven oil reserves and production capacity. That is why the recent attacks, widely assumed to have been ordered by Iran, on tankers in the Gulf of Oman, a strategic waterway just outside the Strait, has frayed geopolitical nerves the world over.


One of us (Max Boot) was critical of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal - the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The other supported it. We both agreed, however, that, with Iran abiding by the JCPOA, it was a mistake for President Trump to exit the agreement in 2018. That move, followed by the imposition of sanctions, has created the current standoff with Iran that nearly led to war last week. But there is no way to unscramble this omelet.


The U.S. remains on a collision course with Iran. Donald Trump continues to declare minimalist objectives - direct talks focused on nuclear activities - while his advisers pursue maximalist ends, ranging from a list of demands that Iran cannot hope to meet to regime change. His administration, meanwhile, is working to strangle Iran's economy through sanctions with no consistent aim. Iran, in turn, has no clear understanding of what it is being asked to do, and thus views U.S. moves in existential terms.  

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iran plans to scrap a law banning women from passing their nationality to their children, which human rights experts said could help thousands of children living in legal limbo by letting them acquire citizenship. Iran is one of 25 countries that do not permit women married to foreigners to hand their nationality to their children. Citizenship experts say such laws can fuel statelessness, potentially depriving people of basic rights such as education, health care, housing and employment, and leaving them vulnerable to exploitation.


Iran's tax collection in the first quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (beginning March 21) shows a 28% increase compared with the same period in the previous year, Iran's Minister of Economy has claimed. Without providing details, Farhad Dezhpasand said on Tuesday, June 25, the government managed to collect 240 trillion rials (approximately $2 billion based on free market rates) of tax revenues in the first quarter of the current year.

CONGRESS & IRAN


Senate Republicans are confident they have the votes to defeat a bipartisan amendment that would require congressional approval for any military action President Trump takes against Iran. The amendment, which Democrats want to attach to the annual National Defense Authorization Act, would require 60 votes to pass. That means at least 13 Republicans would have to join all 47 Democrats - including two independents who caucus with Democrats - to pass the amendment.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow will try to persuade the United States and Iran to start "civilized" dialogue.  "This, of course, assumes the end to the policy of ultimatums, sanctions and blackmail," Lavrov told a briefing.


The Iran-backed Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah believes a U.S. war on Iran is unlikely and U.S. President Donald Trump would not be able to control the results of a conflict that could engulf the region. Sheikh Naim Qassem, in an interview with Lebanon's al-Joumhouria newspaper, said such a war would be fought on many fronts, not just one, meaning losses would be countless.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that some nations in the Persian Gulf are pushing the U.S. and Iran towards a military conflict, and should instead focus on facilitating dialogue. Speaking with journalists on Wednesday, Lavrov said a military conflict between Washington and Tehran would be an "international crisis" that would be "detrimental to both the Middle East and Africa," state news agency Tass reported.

CYBERWARFARE


A claim by US officials that a retaliatory cyber attack ordered by the White House crippled Iranian missile launching systems will remain almost impossible to substantiate, experts say. Citing unnamed sources, US media reported last week that the attack launched by the US Cyber Command disabled computers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard unit responsible for shooting down an American surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz on June 20.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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