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TOP STORIES
President Trump approved military strikes against Iran
in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled
back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating
tensions. As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were
expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White
House among the president's top national security officials and
congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration
officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations.
President Donald Trump declared Thursday that "Iran
made a very big mistake" by shooting down a U.S. surveillance
drone over the Strait of Hormuz but suggested it was a foolish error
rather than an intentional escalation of the tensions that have led
to rising fears of open military conflict. Asked about a U.S.
response, the president said pointedly, "You'll soon find
out."
The U.S. ambassador to the European Union questioned the
bloc's stance toward Iran, underscoring the transatlantic tensions
over relations with Tehran. Gordon Sondland said the EU's refusal so
far to pin blame on the country for an attack last week on two oil
tankers outside the entrance to the Persian Gulf only served to
strengthen the Iranian administration.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Senior officials from Iran, France, Germany, Britain,
China and Russia will meet on June 28 in Vienna to discuss ways to
save the 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran, the European Union said on
Thursday. The meeting will look at how to "tackle
challenges arising from the withdrawal and re-imposition of sanctions
by the United States on Iran," the EU added, referring to U.S.
President Donald Trump's decision to quit the deal last year.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Some global airlines are re-routing flights to avoid
Iran-controlled airspace over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman,
they said on Friday, after the U.S. aviation regulator barred its
carriers from the area until further notice. Thursday's
emergency order from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
came after Iran shot down a high-altitude U.S. drone with a surface-to-air
missile, sparking concerns about a threat to the safety of commercial
airlines.
Oil prices rallied towards $65 per barrel on fears of a
U.S. military attack on Iran that would disrupt flows from the Middle
East, which provides more than 20% of the world's oil
output. Brent crude was up 42 cents, or 0.66%, at $64.87 a
barrel by 0850 GMT. The global benchmark jumped 4.3% on Thursday and
was up around five percent for the week, in its first weekly gain in
five weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 21 cents,
or 0.38%, at $57.28 a barrel.
"It is not the role of the United States to take
the lead in protecting neutral shipping in the [Persian]
Gulf."(1) That was George Shultz, President Ronald Reagan's
Secretary of State, arguing in early 1987 against granting a request
from Kuwait to reflag its oil tankers as American and gain
protection from Iran during the so-called "Tanker
War." Shultz didn't prevail. The reflagging and U.S. Navy convoy
operation known as Earnest Will kicked off within months.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
FIFA President Gianni Infantino has demanded Iran
provide assurances women will be allowed to attend 2022 World Cup
qualifiers after expressing disappointment the country has reneged on
its commitments to open up stadiums. Infantino faced criticism for
attending a Tehran derby in March 2018 where women were shut out of
the stadium. But when he returned to the Iranian capital in November
for the Asian Champions League final, hundreds of Iranian women were
allowed to watch Persepolis play Kashima Antlers of Japan.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Asked how the United States will respond to Iran after
Iran shot down an American drone, U.S. President Donald Trump told
reporters, "You'll find out." Trump called Iran's
move a big mistake in remarks to reporters before a meeting with
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but kept open the possibility
of talks with Iran. Trump also said the United States has
documented that its drone was in international waters, not in Iranian
territory, as Tehran has said.
The Trump administration has portrayed Iran's
recent moves, including its threat to resume stockpiling
low-enriched uranium in violation of the nuclear agreement, as
proof that Iran is an implacable rogue state, bent on acquiring
nuclear weapons, that can be contained only through the threat of
military force. Iran has indeed often acted as a regional
provocateur, but in this case some nonpartisan experts
on Iran and on United States policy in the Middle East see
something different.
Iranian officials told Reuters on Friday that Tehran had
received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump through Oman
overnight warning that a U.S. attack on Iran was imminent. They
spoke shortly after the New York Times reported that Trump had
approved military strikes against Iran on Friday in retaliation for
the downing of a U.S. surveillance drone, but called off the attacks
at the last minute. "In his message, Trump said he was
against any war with Iran and wanted to talk to Tehran about various
issues..."
The United States is trying to create "Iran
phobia", Iran's defence minister Amir Hatami said on Friday,
according to the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA). "Very
complicated and suspicious conditions exist in the region," he
was quoted as saying. "It seems that all of this is in line with
an overall policy for creating Iran phobia and creating a consensus
against the Islamic Republic."
The debris field from a U.S. military drone that was
shot down by Iran is in international waters in the Strait of Hormuz,
and U.S. naval assets have been dispatched to the area, a U.S.
official told Reuters, contradicting Iran's account of the
shoot-down. The U.S. military did not immediately comment about
the location of the debris from the Navy MQ-4C Triton drone.
As the Trump administration tries to rally international
support for its case against Tehran, it faces the quandary that on
two key objectives-curtailing Iran's nuclear program and reversing
Iran's assertive behavior in the Middle East-its policies have so far
had the opposite effect. In outlining the administration's demands
last year for a new Iran deal, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
insisted that Iran stop enriching all uranium and halt its
"malign behavior"in the Middle East, vowing to impose
"the strongest sanctions in history."
Weeks of threats and counterthreats have culminated
here: Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance drone overnight, marking the
most serious escalation to date in the U.S.-Iran confrontation. The
U.S. has been accusing Iran and its allies of repeated attacks
against commercial shipping and U.S. allies and interests in Saudi
Arabia and Iraq, but now, for the first time, Iran has claimed a
direct attack on an American military target.
From the U.S.S. Maine in Havana Harbor in 1898 to the
U.S.S. Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964, maritime incidents,
shrouded in the fog of uncertainty, have lured the United States into
wars on foreign shoals. Which is why cooler heads must prevail - and
Congress must be consulted - as American and Iranian forces inch
closer to open conflict in and around the Strait of
Hormuz.
With the United States on the brink of a potential
military conflict with Iran on Thursday, the Pentagon decided to
say...well, almost nothing. Officials at the Department of Defense
summoned reporters to a hastily arranged briefing to discuss the
tense situation unfolding in the Gulf of Oman after Iran's military
shot down an American surveillance drone. The incident
followed attacks on shipping vessels in the region last
week.
There is a danger that Iran's attack on a U.S.
surveillance drone could turn America's strategy of deterrence into a
full-blown conflict. But the U.S. has several options short of a full
war to respond to this latest provocation. And President Donald Trump,
who downplayed Iran's non-lethal attack last week on two
oil tankers near Oman, also downplayed the drone incident. "I
find it hard to believe it was intentional," he said
Wednesday. "It could have been somebody who was loose and
stupid."
CONGRESS & IRAN
Several top U.S. House Republicans, including leader
Kevin McCarthy, said on Thursday the United States must undertake a
"measured response" to Iran after Washington accused Tehran
of shooting down a drone and attacking oil tankers. "Iran
directly attacked a United States asset over international waters.
This provocation comes a week after they attacked and destroyed two
commercial tankers in international waters," McCarthy and
Representatives Michael McCaul, Mac Thornberry and Devin Nunes said
in a statement.
The Trump administration called top congressional
leaders to the White House for a briefing later on Thursday on Iran
following the downing of a U.S. surveillance drone, a source with
knowledge of the meeting said. The meeting, with the top four
leaders of the U.S. Congress as well as heads of the U.S. Congress
Armed Services and Intelligence committees, will be held in the White
House Situation Room at 3 p.m. (1900 GMT), the source said.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a
U.S. military attack on Iran would be a catastrophe for the Middle
East that would trigger a surge in violence and a possible refugee
exodus. Putin, speaking during his annual televised question
and answer session, said Moscow believed Tehran was in full
compliance with its nuclear commitments and called sanctions against
Iran groundless.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday
called on the international community to support the United States
against Iran as tensions between the two countries escalated after
the downing of a U.S. drone by Iran. "In the last 24 hours
Iran has intensified its aggression against the United States and
against all of us. And I repeat my call for all peace-loving
countries to stand by the United States in its effort to stop Iranian
aggression," Netanyahu said in a statement. "Israel stands
by the United States on this."
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Iran has created a grave situation and jeopardized
global oil supplies with its aggressive behavior, Saudi Arabia's
minister of state for foreign affairs said on Thursday, adding that
the kingdom was consulting with allies on next steps. The
United States and Saudi Arabia are among countries that have blamed
Iran for attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a major
transit route for global oil supplies. Tehran has denied involvement.
U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook met
Saudi Arabia's Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in
Riyadh on Friday, the minister tweeted. They discussed recent
attacks in the region which the United States and Saudi Arabia blame
on Iran and Iran denies being behind. Prince Khalid affirmed Saudi
support for the U.S. campaign to pressure Tehran.
CYBERWARFARE
When two countries begin to threaten war in 2019,
it's a safe bet that they've already been hacking each other's
networks. Right on schedule, three different cybersecurity firms now
say they've watched Iran's hackers try to gain access to a wide array
of US organizations over the past few weeks, just as military
tensions between the two countries rise to a breaking point-though
it's not yet clear whether those hacker intrusions are aimed at
intelligence gathering, laying the groundwork for a more disruptive
cyberattack, or both.
Iran's state-sponsored computer hackers have been under
a steady and unusually public bombardment in recent months, with
details of their secret operations bared to the world and portions of
their online infrastructure stolen away. That unwanted attention has
left Iran's cyberwarriors battered and bruised, even as tensions with
the West elevate to new levels. If you're looking for a way to
inflict pain on America and its allies without killing American
troops or citizens, cyber seems like a domain that's ripe for
mischief.
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