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TOP STORIES
President Trump struck back Monday at Iran by issuing
"hard-hitting" financial sanctions against Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his associates. "Today's action
follows a series of aggressive behaviors by the Iranian regime in recent
weeks including shooting down a U.S. drone," the president said
in the Oval Office, calling Khamenei "responsible for the
hostile conduct of the regime."
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, speaking
after the United States increased sanctions against Iranian
officials, said Washington was still willing to talk to
Iran. "The president has held the door open to real
negotiations to completely and verifiably eliminate Iran's nuclear
weapons programme, its pursuit of ballistic missile delivery systems,
its support for international terrorism and other malign behaviour
worldwide," Bolton said in Jerusalem. "All that Iran needs
to do is to walk through that open door."
The U.S. and Israel are working to convince Russia to
join them in reining in Iran during an unusual gathering of the three
countries' national security advisers this week, part of a flurry of
diplomatic activity amid tensions with Tehran. White House
national security adviser John Bolton will huddle with his Israeli
and Russian counterparts Tuesday in Jerusalem to discuss Middle East
security, including Iran's military position in Syria and
its influence more broadly in the region, according to U.S. and
Israeli officials.
UANI IN THE NEWS
...Jason Brodsky, policy director for the advocacy group
United Against Nuclear Iran, said that by hitting Mr. Khamenei's
office, the U.S. "is focusing on the real power centers."
The supreme leader's office is a large bureaucracy and Mr. Khamenei has
representatives in many of the state institutions, creating a
"deep state" that runs a parallel government. Because
much of the global economy wants to maintain access to the U.S. as
the world's biggest market for goods and financial services, the power
of such sanctions often is enforced by other countries and followed
by their companies and banks.
Trump "ran on a platform to de-emphasize foreign
engagements and I think he's staying true to plot," said Mark
Wallace, the CEO of the group United Against a Nuclear Iran, which is
known for pressing companies to keep out of Iran. But he's still
sending a message "if you do something bad, you're going to get
a reaction."
Many commentators have blamed the Trump administration
for causing the rising tensions between Iran and the United States in
the Persian Gulf. According to their analysis, it was the decision of
President Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (the JCPOA)
and reinstate secondary economic sanctions that pushed Iran into a
corner and caused Iranian leaders to retaliate by attacking oil
tankers in the Persian Gulf. Yet, there is a much simpler explanation
for the current tensions that needs to be considered: The Trump
administration is holding Iran accountable to norms of international
behavior, and Iran does not want to be held accountable.
Jason Brodsky: Well tensions between the United States
and Iran are nothing new, they've been going on for 40 years. I think
what has happened over the last few days is there are those on the
left who see the United States careening towards conflict and those
on the right who see the president as dithering. But I think it's
something more on the middle ground, and that's signaling. The United
States is signaling the credibility of its deterrence, that it's
prepared to use military force when warranted to push back at
irresponsible Iranian behavior in the region.
President Trump's Iran policy over the weekend was both
erratic and masterful. Doves and isolationists, panicked by what they
see as the administration's inexorable drift toward war, rejoiced
when Mr. Trump announced that a military strike had been called back.
Hawks criticized him for an Obama-like climb-down, but the
announcement of cyberattacks and tightening sanctions helped smooth
ruffled feathers. The result? Mr. Trump more than ever dominates U.S.
Iran policy; contending political factions within the administration
and outside it must jockey for his support. And the more he talks and
tweets about Iran, the less clear anyone is about his ultimate
intentions.
NUCLEAR DEAL & PROGRAM
France, Britain and Germany have sent an official
diplomatic warning to Iran about the serious consequences Tehran
faces if it scales back its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal,
two European diplomats said on Monday. Three diplomats said the
European signatories to the deal lodged the diplomatic demarche, the
term for a formal note, on June 22, with two saying the communication
aimed to warn Iran specifically against scaling back its commitments
to the accord.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
President Trump announced on Monday that he was imposing
new sanctions on Iran, stepping up a policy of pressuring the
nation's leaders and further squeezing the Iranian economy in
retaliation for what the United States says are recent
aggressive acts by Tehran. The move came on top of actions taken by
the administration this spring to cut off all revenues from
Iranian oil exports, the lifeblood of the nation's economy.
Iranian officials have railed for two months against the
Trump administration's sanctions blocking their oil sales as
"economic warfare." But the response to the latest American
penalties imposed on Monday, which targeted the Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders, was more measured,
even mocking. "Ridiculous," declared a headline from the
semiofficial Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Iran said Tuesday new U.S. sanctions on its supreme
leader closed the door on diplomacy and threatened global
stability, as American officials renewed efforts to build a global
alliance against Tehran. President Trump on Monday signed an
executive order designating Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei in a new round of sanctions aimed at top Iranian leaders,
including Mr. Khamenei's office and associates. Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. would later this week sanction Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as well.
Iranian hardline media said on Monday the new U.S. sanctions
imposed on Tehran were based on "fabricated excuses" while
Iranian officials have not responded yet to the hard-hitting
limitations on the country. Iran's semi-official Tasnim and Fars
news agencies said "America has imposed new sanctions on Iran based
on fabricated excuses."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Monday the
new executive order signed by President Donald Trump will lock up
billions of additional dollars in Iranian assets, squeezing the
country further amid escalating tensions with Washington. Mnuchin
said the order was in the works before last week's downing by Iran of
a U.S. military surveillance drone but was in response to that as
well as to previous Iranian actions in the Gulf.
Iran's government has plans to protect the nation
against U.S. economic pressure, Iran's Economy Minister Farhad
Dejpasand was quoted as saying on Tuesday, a day after Washington
imposed new sanctions on Tehran. "We have our plans and
options to counter the enemy's pressure and sanctions," the
semi-official Tasnim News agency quoted Dejpasand as saying.
"But I will not reveal more details about our plans."
Iranian crude exports have dropped so far in June to
300,000 barrels per day (bpd) or less after the United States
tightened the screw on Tehran's main source of income, industry
sources said and tanker data showed, deepening global supply
losses. The United States reimposed sanctions on Iran in November
after pulling out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and six
world powers. Aiming to cut Iran's sales to zero, Washington in May
ended sanctions waivers to importers of Iranian oil.
The U.S. is seeking support from allies for a program to
monitor commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf after attacks on
tankers that the Trump administration has blamed on Iran. The effort
is intended to deter Iran by equipping ships with cameras to monitor
tanker traffic and document any threats, a senior State Department
official told reporters on Monday. The official said Secretary of
State Michael Pompeo sought participation from Saudi Arabia for the
effort it's calling "Sentinel" during a visit to the
kingdom on Monday.
The Middle East presents a dangerous nexus of nuclear
reactors and violence. It remains the only region where foreign
powers have attacked their enemies' nuclear plants. On
Monday, President Donald Trump signed an executive
order putting in place what he called "hard-hitting"
new sanctions on Iran. Should continuing tensions between Tehran and
Washington boil over into intense hostilities, one ominous nuclear
policy question cannot be ignored: Will the presence of reactors in
an enlarged conflict zone open a Pandora's box to the first
radioactive war in history?
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
The Islamic Republic of Iran is spreading its
state-sponsored terrorism to Western African countries to attack the
US and Western assets, the British Daily Telegraph reported
on Wednesday. "Iran is setting up a network of terror cells in
Africa to attack US and other Western targets in retaliation for
Washington's decision to impose sanctions against Tehran, according
to Western security officials," according to the newspaper.
Half a ton of explosives was brought to Paris in a
diplomatic suitcases in order to carry out a terror attack, before
being foiled by French authorities, it was reported in the British
media. The British newspaper "Independent in Arabic" quoted
an intelligence source as saying that in 2018 Iran had delivered half
a ton of TATP explosives in diplomatic packages to a civilian plane
that was supposed to be transferred to Paris to carry out an attack
in the city.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Jailed British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe will serve out her five-year prison sentence,
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday, dismissing a call
for her release by a British minister visiting Tehran. "Mrs
Zaghari is an Iranian. She has been convicted on security charges and
is spending her sentence in prison," Iranian Foreign Ministry
Spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, was quoted as saying by the state media. "Iran
does not recognize dual nationality," he said.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper will be ready
to update European allies on tensions with Iran as he heads to NATO
headquarters this week during his inaugural trip as Pentagon chief, a
senior U.S. official said. Esper, whose first full day in the Pentagon
was on Monday, led the Army until the surprise resignation of Patrick
Shanahan as acting defense secretary last week. Esper is now the
third person in six months to work at the defense secretary's
desk.
Once the dust cleared, it turned out that one of the
enduring lessons from the past week occurred at about 22,000 feet.
The Iranian downing of an RQ-4A Global Hawk on Thursday is thought to
have been the first time one of the Pentagon's surveillance
workhorses has been shot out of the sky. Aside from the fact the
incident nearly risked taking the United States and Iran to war for a
few hours, it was also stark evidence of an escalation in Tehran's
military capabilities.
President Donald Trump pulled back at the last minute
from military strikes on Iran, but he did not refrain from entirely
hitting back at Tehran, launching cyberattacks on Thursday against
the country's intelligence and military apparatus. The cyberattacks,
which were first reported by Yahoo News, targeted the Iranian
intelligence organization that helped plan recent attacks on oil
tankers and also struck Iranian missile systems. An Iranian
official claimed on Monday that the attacks were
unsuccessful.
Where do we go from here? That's the question many are
asking after President Trump abruptly canceled military
strikes he ordered against Iran in retaliation for Thursday's
downing of an American surveillance drone in the Persian Gulf. The
president's decision contained hostilities - at least for the moment.
But it left Iranian-American tensions high, underlying problems
unresolved and critics wondering whether Trump has a viable exit
strategy.
The official explanation for President Trump's
last-minute decision to postpone a strike on Iran contains two
separate claims. First, the move shows that Trump is capable of
restraint, forbearance and great temperamental poise. Second, his
resolve and willingness to unleash spectacular military might should
not be underestimated. Those two things aren't necessarily
contradictory. Indeed, the argument is that Trump is judiciously balancing
those two impulses.
Iran can come to the negotiating table or let its
economy crumble, the U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian
Hook, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Monday. "Iran's
proxies are suffering from financial shortfalls" and so is
Tehran, Hook said. His remarks came hours before U.S. President
Donald Trump was expected to impose new sanctions on Iran. Trump last
week called off retaliatory strikes on Iran following the downing of
an American drone because the action wouldn't have been
"proportionate."
Middle East policymakers in Washington these days
should take some advice from that noted diplomat, Bob Dylan. His
adage "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to
lose" is getting tested with the Trump administration's
"maximum pressure" sanctions regime on Iran. The outcome of
this particular experiment could well determine the direction of oil
prices as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections next year.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Senate Democrats are weighing whether to filibuster the
annual defense policy bill that is on the floor this week to try to
force a vote on an amendment that would require President Donald
Trump to get congressional approval before launching war with Iran.
Democratic aides and senators say a determination hasn't been made
whether to carry out the contentious move that would block
that National Defense Authorization Act, legislation that
typically wins broad bipartisan support.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, filed legislation Monday that
would take hundreds of millions of dollars from frozen Iranian bank
accounts and use them to offset the cost of an American military
drone that was shot down by Tehran last week. The proposal, which was
first reported by the Washington Free Beacon, would require the Trump
administration to asses the cost of the drone, which was believed to
be between $120 million and $220 million.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday
his country will do "everything" to prevent arch-rival Iran
from obtaining nuclear weapons, during a visit by a senior Russian
security official. "Israel will not allow Iran, which calls for
our destruction, to entrench on our border; we will do everything to
prevent it from attaining nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said. He
was speaking alongside Nikolai Patrushev, the head of Moscow's
powerful security council, whose visit followed weeks of simmering
tensions between Tehran and Washington in the Gulf.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Saudi Arabia's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs
warned regional rival Iran there would be more sanctions if it
continued its "aggressive polices", but said Riyadh wanted
to avoid war. "Today, Iran is under severe economic
sanctions," Adel al-Jubeir told Le Monde newspaper in an
interview published on Monday. "These sanctions will be strengthened.
If Iran continues its aggressive policies, it will have to pay the
price."
Oman on Monday denied reports that it had conveyed a
message from the United States to the Iranian government over the
downing last week of an American unmanned drone. "The
Sultanate is watching current regional developments with concern and
hopes that the Iranian and American sides show restraint and address
unresolved issues through dialogue," the foreign ministry also
said in a post on Twitter.
Yemen's Houthi rebels have accelerated missile and drone
attacks on Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, highlighting the kingdom's
military vulnerabilities in defending itself against an Iranian ally
amid a crisis in U.S.-Iran relations. The Houthis have executed 10
missile or drone attacks since April on Saudi airports, a
desalination plant, a major oil pipeline and other targets,
escalating fighting on a key front in the regionwide confrontation
between U.S. and Iran. The Houthi attacks have occurred around the
same time as the tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman that the U.S. has
blamed on Iran.
A gun, a comic magazine about jihad and qat to chew -
for many kids in Yemen, these are integral parts of their childhood.
About 50,000 children have been recruited in the past three months by
the Houthi rebels to fight in the country's bloody civil war, with
around 10% of them being girls, according to Yemen's Information
Minister Moammar Al-Eryani. With the difficult economic situation in
the country when salaries are mainly being paid only to those willing
to fight, families have to find a way to survive.
Yemen's Houthi rebels blocked a food shipment earmarked
to feed 100,000 families in the impoverished nation that has been
pushed to the brink of starvation by more than four years of war. A
World Food Programme (WFP) spokesperson, who spoke on condition of
anonymity, said on Tuesday the aid was prevented from reaching
civilians after the UN body partially suspended relief efforts last
week, accusing the rebels of looting it.
CYBERWARFARE
A Trump administration official said that Russia, China,
and Iran are trying to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the
2020 elections but that none has successfully corrupted physical
election infrastructure, which remains a potential target for state
and non-state actors. China has primarily used conventional media
outlets to advocate for certain policies, including trade, while
Russia and Iran have been more active on social media platforms, a
senior U.S. intelligence official told reporters on Monday, speaking
on the condition of not being identified.
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