Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Eye on Iran: Fearing Price Increases, Iranians Hoard Goods









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Top Stories

NYT: "Iranians rushed to supermarkets to buy cooking oil, red meat and other staples on Tuesday, stockpiling the goods over new fears of price spikes from a change in the official exchange rate that could severely reduce the already weakened purchasing power of the rial, the national currency. Prices of staples long deemed essential are set to increase by as much as 60 percent because of the currency change, which nearly doubles the mandatory exchange rate for importers of goods like medicine, chicken and sugar, but also machinery spare parts and some chemicals. Under Iran's complicated system of multiple exchange rates, the importers had been paying a rate of 12,260 rials to the dollar, but will now have to pay 24,500 rials to the dollar. The new exchange rate is much closer to the rial's actual market value, which currency traders estimate to be 35,500 rials to the dollar. The Iranian news media said it would take up to a week for consumers to feel the change, which appeared to accelerate many people's efforts to buy what they could as soon as possible." http://t.uani.com/17hq6kR

Reuters: "Fuel made from Iranian oil is legally powering thousands of flights a year out of Dubai's booming airport, despite U.S. pressure on buyers to shun Tehran's petroleum exports. It may even fuel U.S. allied military jets in the Middle East... Meanwhile, close U.S. ally Dubai, long a major user of Iranian light oil known as condensate, continues to process tens of thousands of barrels a day at an Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) refinery, according to oil industry sources and shipping data. ENOC then pumps the resulting fuel to Dubai airport, the world's second busiest... U.S. and European companies are not allowed to buy any Iranian refined oil products, under tough sanctions imposed by Washington to force Tehran to stop its nuclear activities. But any airline is free to use fuel made from Iranian oil in other countries, because once it passes through a refinery outside Iran it is no longer considered of Iranian origin under sanctions. 'In our view jet fuel from an Emirati refinery is Emirati jet fuel, it is not Iranian no matter what it was made from,' a U.S. government official in Washington said. ENOC says it is the largest provider of jet fuel at Dubai International Airport (DXB) and that its portfolio boasts a growing number of military customers. One such customer is the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) which supplies planes at the Al Minhad airbase near Dubai, a hub for U.S.-allied forces in the Middle East." http://t.uani.com/11MSENW

AFP: "Iran's Finance Minister Shamseddin Hosseini said Tuesday that international sanctions had pushed inflation above 30% and were causing 'a lot of trouble' but that Iran's nuclear drive would not be halted. Lashing out at measures by the United Nations, United States and European Union, Hosseini said the Iranian economy was increasingly gearing up to produce at home the goods that it cannot import... The minister said the sanctions were 'quite vast, all-encompassing and political most of all.' They cause 'quite a lot of trouble, quite a lot of hard work.' The minister said Iran's inflation rate was now above 30%, up from an official rate of 21% a year ago. Analysts say the figure is much higher. He said unemployment had fallen from 12.3% a year ago to 12.2%. 'The waves of inflation in the last calendar year, we see these being born out of sanctions,' Hosseini said... According to the minister, non-oil exports, including mining, agricultural and industrial products, rose by 20% in 2012 and that imports declined by 14%." http://t.uani.com/11MXISJ
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Nuclear Program

Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday it will hold a new meeting with Iran on May 15 aimed at enabling its inspectors to resume a stalled investigation into suspected nuclear bomb research by the Islamic state. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been trying for more than a year to coax Iran into granting IAEA officials the access to sites, documents and officials they want for their inquiry. Tehran says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful. The May meeting will be the 10th round of talks since early 2012 in the search for a framework accord between the two sides that would set the terms for how the IAEA should conduct its inquiry, so far without success." http://t.uani.com/13tRoSG

AP: "The case against an Iranian-American man accused of helping Iran launch its first satellite may sound like a James Bond movie but it's a real life drama, a prosecutor said Tuesday as trial opened. Nader Modanlo, 52, is accused of brokering a deal to help Iran launch the earth observation satellite from Russia. Prosecutors say the Maryland resident violated a trade embargo the United States has had against the Middle Eastern country since the mid-1990s and that he was paid $10 million for his assistance. 'The case you're about to hear is not a movie script,' prosecutor David Salem told jurors in opening statements Tuesday in federal court in Greenbelt. Salem said Modanlo knew about the trade embargo but was in financial trouble." http://t.uani.com/11kgfqt

Sanctions

Reuters: "Before Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad started a visit to Niger last week, there was talk that the poor West African state might add Iran to its list of buyers for the uranium mined in its remote desert north. Such a deal would have alarmed world powers seeking to have Iran curb its shadowy nuclear program. But the outcome of Ahmadinejad's trip was far less spectacular: an agreement on visas for diplomats and another on health cooperation. Ahmadinejad's final African tour before he steps down this year illustrated how Iran's campaign to court the fast-growing continent has yielded remarkably little in the way of trade and votes at the United Nations against sanctions targeting its disputed nuclear activity over the past seven years. 'There is a general sense that Iran's influence in Africa is on the wane,' said Manoah Esipisu, a Johannesburg-based Africa analyst. 'Iran means trouble with Washington and its allies, and there is little appetite for that.'" http://t.uani.com/ZoM9oW

Press Trust of India: "India has slashed import of crude oil from Iran by over 26.5% in the financial year ended March 31 as US and European sanctions made it difficult to ship oil from the Persian Gulf nation. The nation imported about 13.3 million tonnes of crude oil from Iran in 2012-13 fiscal, down from 18.1 million tonnes shipped in the previous financial year, official sources said. The decline in shipments to the world's fourth-largest oil importer was sharper than by Iran's other two big buyers, China and South Korea, as New Delhi struggled with insurance and payment problems." http://t.uani.com/13uxIhA

Terrorism

AP: "Canadian authorities claim al-Qaida operatives in Iran directed a failed plot to attack a passenger train. Iran denies it has any links to the two suspects. What falls in between is Iran's complicated history with the terror group that has included outright hostility, alliances of convenience and even overtures by Tehran to assist Washington after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks." http://t.uani.com/17VZnLQ

AP: "An Iranian man using a fake Israeli passport is being questioned in Nepal after being arrested outside the Israeli embassy, police said. The man was arrested last week after Israeli embassy officials told them that a suspicious man appeared to be scouting the embassy in the upscale Lazimpat neighborhood in Katmandu, said Kesh Bahadur Shahi of Nepal's Central Investigation Bureau. He said Wednesday that the man identified only as Mohsin Khosravian is being held in a detention center in Katmandu. Police said they could not give any more details as the case is a sensitive diplomatic issue and still being investigated. Several attacks and plots around the world in recent years are believed to be linked to a covert war between Israel and Hezbollah and the militant group's patron, Iran." http://t.uani.com/17hpQCm

Syrian Uprising

Reuters: "Syria hopes to clinch more financial aid from its allies Russia and Iran soon, but still has enough foreign reserves to pursue its war on rebels trying to oust President Bashar al-Assad, the central bank governor said. Speaking at the bank's headquarters, hit by a car bomb on April 8, Adeeb Mayaleh said: 'We are expecting much more support from friendly countries... Yes, financial support from Iran and Russia and it could also be from other friendly countries. Discussions are going on. We are in the process of putting the final touches on the subject of financial aid in a clear way,' he told Reuters in an interview, without specifying how much money Iran and Russia would provide. He said Tehran had already given Syria a $1 billion credit line, more than half of which had been used, and that Russia was now printing Syrian banknotes, formerly supplied by Germany and Austria until the European Union imposed sanctions on Syria." http://t.uani.com/ZIy8AR

AFP: "Iran wants Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad to stay on and contest the presidential election scheduled for next year, a visiting senior Iranian envoy said on Monday. 'We think the best scenario is for Mr Assad to remain president of the republic until the summer of 2014,' said Aladin Borujerdi, head of parliament's national security and foreign affairs commission. 'After that, free elections will be held and the Syrian people can express themselves and decide on their future,' he told a Damascus press conference after a meeting with Iran's ally Assad." http://t.uani.com/10cuNWz

Domestic Politics

AP: "Iran's armed forces joint chief of staff is accusing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of trying to manipulate public opinion. It is the latest exchange of harsh rhetoric between outgoing Ahmadinejad and his conservative opponents ahead of the June election. The conservative Khabaronline news website on Tuesday quoted Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi as saying that recent remarks made by Ahmadinejad were 'unacceptable.' On Monday, the Iranian president - without naming names - complained that some people in power had tied the 'hands and feet of his administration,' while expecting it to work properly. Then on Tuesday, Ahmadinejad promised to disclose more against his opponents in the future. Under Iranian law, manipulating public opinion is punishable by up to two years in prison." http://t.uani.com/17VXIWs

Opinion & Analysis

Peter Bergen in CNN: "The news that Canadian law enforcement on Monday arrested two men accused of planning to derail a passenger train in the Toronto area has attracted much attention, in part, because the plotters are also charged with 'receiving support from al Qaeda elements in Iran.' If these allegations are true, it would appear to be the first time that al Qaeda elements based in Iran have directed some kind of plot in the West. And it also underlines the perplexing relationship between the Shia theocratic state of Iran, which the Sunni ultra-fundamentalists who make up al Qaeda regard as heretical but with which they have had some kind of a marriage of convenience for many years. While there isn't evidence that al Qaeda and the Iranian government have ever cooperated on a terrorist attack, al Qaeda's ties to Iran, surprising perhaps to some, stretch back more than a decade. As recently as October, the U.S. Treasury named as terrorists six al Qaeda members living in Iran who it alleged were sending fighters and money to Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad's regime and were also funding terrorism in Pakistan. Al Qaeda's Iranian presence began after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan during the winter of 2001 when some of Osama bin Laden's family and his top lieutenants fled to neighboring Iran, where they lived under some form of house arrest. They included Saif al-Adel, the Egyptian military commander of al Qaeda; Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, bin Laden's son-in-law and spokesman; and Saad bin Laden, one of the al Qaeda leader's older sons who has played a leadership role in his father's organization. Saad helped bin Laden's oldest wife, Khairiah bin Laden, and a number of his father's children to move to Iran in 2002. Bin Laden's sons Ladin, Uthman and Muhammad and his daughter Fatima, who is married to Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, settled in Tehran, the Iranian capital. According to Saudi officials, it was from al Qaeda's leaders in Iran that al Qaeda's Saudi affiliate received the go-ahead in 2003 for a number of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia that killed scores of Saudis and Westerners and targeted Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure... Abu Ghaith and the two suspects just arrested in Canada, 30-year-old Chiheb Esseghaier of Montreal and 35-year-old Raed Jaser of Toronto, will obviously be the subject of much interest from U.S. and Canadian intelligence officials. Those officials will surely be seeking answers to the precise nature of the Iranian government's relationship with al Qaeda over the past decade. Has it been passive acquiescence or more active complicity?" http://t.uani.com/14OaQOR

David Blair in The Daily Telegraph: "When Canada accused 'al-Qaeda elements in Iran' of guiding the alleged plot to derail a train, the veil was briefly lifted on a tangled yet crucial relationship between Osama bin Laden's followers and Tehran. Iran and al-Qaeda, divided by race and religion, are not exactly natural allies. Bin Laden's heirs are radical Sunni Arabs with a visceral suspicion of Iran's Shia Persian regime. Indeed the hardline Salafists of al-Qaeda consider the Shia faith a heresy: in their eyes, Shias are not true Muslims at all. Yet Iran and al-Qaeda are united by anti-Americanism and the compelling logic of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'. With this in mind, there is no doubt that Iran granted refuge to senior al-Qaeda figures after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The fugitives included bin Laden's daughter, Fatima, and no less than four of his sons: Othman, Mohammed, Laden and Sa'ad. Along with various other key figures, they were kept under house arrest, but given safety. 'The reality is that since 2001, Iran has provided refuge for al-Qaeda elements, including some senior leaders,' said Jonathan Eyal, head of security studies at the Royal United Services Institute. 'The Canadian claim that this plot has been engineered on Iranian soil is entirely plausible. Western intelligence agencies have known for a long time about the presence of al-Qaeda operatives in Iran.' But a refuge is not necessarily an operating base. Iran might have granted protection to al-Qaeda figures, but carefully prevented them from planning or executing any attacks. That probably has been Iran's general approach, yet the picture is still murky... In the end, the relationship between these two mutually suspicious partners depended on whether the logic of a common enemy overrode racial and religious hatred. The evidence suggests that sometimes it did - and often it didn't." http://t.uani.com/14ObADu

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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