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Top Stories
Reuters:
"More than half of U.S. senators support a bill to impose new
sanctions on Iran should the Islamic Republic break an agreement to curb
its nuclear program, aides said on Thursday, but there was no plan yet to
debate the measure. The White House has threatened to veto the
legislation, and Iran says last November's nuclear deal struck in Geneva
would be dead if the U.S. Congress imposes new sanctions. The 'Nuclear
Weapon Free Iran Act' is now supported by at least 54 senators in the
100-member chamber, according to a congressional record, with six
senators joining on Wednesday. A Senate aide said two more joined on
Thursday, bringing the total to 56. It is uncertain whether the bill will
be introduced in the Senate and whether backers can win the two-thirds
majority to overcome a veto by President Barack Obama. A senior Senate
Democratic aide said there were no plans yet for advancing the bill to
the Senate floor, despite the growing list of co-sponsors." http://t.uani.com/1lInBQE
AFP:
"Iran and EU representatives met for a second day Friday to discuss
how to implement a landmark deal on containing Tehran's nuclear
programme, which they aim to put into action within 10 days... The
diplomats were painstakingly poring over three outstanding issues in a
bid to put the groundbreaking November 24 deal into action, Iran's deputy
chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said. 'We still have disagreement
on three points... If we solve these issues then the Geneva deal will be
executable,' Araqchi told Iranian state-run TV. He was meeting for a
second and final day Friday in Geneva with Helga Schmid, deputy to EU
foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, whose office represents the
so-called P5+1 group of world powers -- Britain, China, France, Russia
and the United States plus Germany." http://t.uani.com/1d793X0
Reuters:
"Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods swap that would
let Iran lift oil exports substantially, in defiance of the Western
sanctions that helped force Tehran in November to agree a preliminary
deal to end its nuclear programme. Three Russian and Iranian sources
close to the negotiations said final details were in discussion for a
barter deal that would see Moscow buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of
Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. 'Good progress
is being made at the moment with strong chances of success,' said a
Russian source. 'We are discussing the details and the date of signing a
deal depends on those details.' ... Russian purchases of 500,000 bpd of
Iranian crude would lift Iran's oil exports by 50 percent and provide a
major filip to its struggling economy. At current oil prices near $100 a
barrel Iran would earn about an additional $1.5 billion a month." http://t.uani.com/1d74axa
Sanctions
FP:
"In a surprise development in Congress, a long-building effort to
impose new sanctions on Iran has reached a near-filibuster-proof majority
in the Senate. Despite months of White House lobbying against the bill,
58 Senators now support the so-called 'Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act,'
according to a Senate aide close to the process. The bill's
bipartisan backing puts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in an awful
bind. Either he defies President Obama and allows a vote on the
legislation. Or he goes along with the White House -- and takes on the
majority of his fellow senators. 'The only way you can get a vote is if
Reid allows it,' said a separate Senate aide. 'Hence the question ...
Does Reid support sanctions -- yes or no?'" http://t.uani.com/1adUqNx
Free Beacon:
"U.S. officials are concerned that the Italian government's recent
rush to reenter the Iranian marketplace could hasten the collapse of
international economic sanctions and undermine Western efforts to
pressure Tehran into inking a final nuclear deal. The Italian government
has been leading the charge to reopen the Iranian marketplace in order to
cash in on Tehran's lucrative energy sector, according to numerous
reports and sources tracking the situation. As the Italians seek to boost
their economic ties with Iran-sending high-level officials and lawmakers
for talks-U.S. officials and other experts say they are growing concerned
that Italy's aggressive outreach could undermine the international
sanctions regime. A delegation of Italian lawmakers met with a top
Iranian official over the weekend, possibly laying the groundwork for a
visit later this month by Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, according
to Iranian officials." http://t.uani.com/1aNdstT
Terrorism
Guardian:
"A rapprochement between Hamas and Tehran is under way almost three
years after a breach over the Palestinian party's refusal to back the
Syrian government in the civil war, and amid its current political
isolation following the demise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The
rebuilding of the relationship is likely to dismay Israel and the US,
which had welcomed the weakened ties between Gaza's rulers and their
powerful political, financial and military sponsors. 'Relations between
us are now almost back to how they were before [the crisis over Syria].
We believe we will soon be back at that point,' said Taher al-Nounou, an
aide to Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh. Contacts between
high-ranking officials from both sides had resumed, he said." http://t.uani.com/1lYUkOU
Syria Conflict
AFP:
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Thursday a Syrian peace
conference planned for later this month will fail if Tehran, Damascus's
main regional ally, does not participated, media reported. The remarks
came ahead of a meeting Monday at which Russia and the United States are
to discuss Tehran's possible involvement in the talks set to start in
Montreux, Switzerland on January 22. 'Any trans-regional meeting that is
not attended by influential players will be unable to solve the Syria
crisis,' Rouhani told Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone, the
ISNA news agency reported. 'Thus, the Geneva 2 conference has already
failed without it even being started,' he added, calling the Russian-US
initiated forum 'a negotiation show.'" http://t.uani.com/1lYUfuB
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"Iranian users are experiencing inconsistent filtering of various
Internet and mobile application technologies as Iranian authorities
determine their communications policies. On December 26, 2013, the
Secretary of Iran's Working Group to Determine Instances of Criminal
Content on the Internet told Fars News Agency that blocking Tango, Viber,
WhatsApp, and other mobile communications applications remain on the
Working Group's agenda. Three days later, Iranian users reported that
Viber had been blocked in Iran; Instagram and WeChat had been blocked
earlier, despite disagreement from Iran's Ministry of Culture and Islamic
Guidance. These developments have cast serious doubts among users about
whether the Rouhani administration may be able to deliver on his promise
of access to information. The frequent announcements about banning
different Internet services are in direct contradiction with Hassan
Rouhani's statements." http://t.uani.com/1dC7fBM
Domestic
Politics
CSM:
"Nearly eight months after President Hassan Rouhani's surprise
election victory, in which the centrist cleric trounced influential
conservative candidates, Iran's hardliners are behaving as if they never
lost. Shadowy vigilantes on motorcycles have menaced the family home of a
pro-Rouhani filmmaker, and reform-minded journalists are showing up on
target lists. Hard-line Friday prayer leaders warn darkly that
seditionists 'have become ambitious' with Mr. Rouhani in power, and the
motorcade of the president himself was hit with eggs and a shoe after
Rouhani placed a historic phone call to President Barack Obama. 'It's not
a full-fledged war, but they are trying to start one,' says an Iranian
journalist who could not be named because of the sensitivity of the
subject. 'They are very small circles, but they are closely knit and they
operate while enjoying impunity.'" http://t.uani.com/JN6JK2
Al-Monitor:
"Reza Faraji Dana, Iran's minister of science, research and
technology, has received a warning card from parliament. Faraji Dana
is the second member of the new cabinet - after Minister of
Education Ali Asghar Faani - to be called to parliament to
answer questions in an open session. His answers about his hirings,
however, did not satisfy conservative MPs, resulting in the warning card.
Any MP who receives three warning cards, known as yellow cards in Iran,
is automatically impeached." http://t.uani.com/1evXZB5
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"Security forces in the United Arab Emirates have detained three
Iranians suspected of kidnapping a British-Iranian businessman who went
missing in Dubai in June, the Dubai government said on Thursday.
Britain's Foreign Office said in August it was in touch with the Dubai
and Iranian governments over the case of Abbas Yazdi, who went missing in
June in Dubai. His wife had told a UAE newspaper that he may have been
kidnapped by 'elements in Iran'... Yazdi went missing on June 25 and his
wife, Atena, told the 7Days newspaper that she feared he may have been
kidnapped by Iranian intelligence officers." http://t.uani.com/KalXrZ
Opinion &
Analysis
Sen. Robert
Menendez in WashPost: "A diplomatic breakthrough
resulting in a peaceful and verifiable termination of Iran's nuclear
weapons program is the preferred outcome of the Obama administration's
negotiations with Iran. Backing up this achievement by taking out a
diplomatic insurance policy is an act of reasonable pragmatism...
Opponents of prospective sanctions against Iran argue that sanctions are
like a spigot - easy to turn on and easy to turn off. But the story
of sanctions, while effective, is more complicated. Passing anything in
Congress takes time. Writing regulations and implementing sanctions takes
even longer, and enforcement of sanctions is an ongoing process. The
Nuclear Weapons Free Iran Act, a bill with bipartisan support in the
Senate, guarantees immediate additional sanctions if Iran breaches its
diplomatic commitments. The legislation endorses the Obama
administration's efforts and the Joint Plan of Action achieved in
November. It supports continued negotiations, gives the administration a
year of flexibility to secure a comprehensive agreement, respects the
sanctions relief Iran is set to receive and prevents any new sanctions
from taking effect while good-faith negotiations are underway. If the
Iranians abide by their commitments, they'll receive the economic relief
they desperately want. Should Iran breach this agreement or fail to
negotiate in good faith, the penalties it would face are severe. Nations
would be required to further reduce their purchases of Iranian petroleum,
and new sanctions would be applied against Iran's mining, engineering and
construction sectors. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has
said that 'the entire deal is dead' if prospective sanctions are passed
by Congress. 'We do not like to negotiate under duress,' he told Time
magazine. But the opposite is true. The proposed legislation is a
clarifying action. It allows all sides to negotiate in certainties and
provides one year of space for the parties to continue talking. It spells
out precisely the consequences should the agreement fail. This should
motivate Iranians to negotiate honestly and seriously. At the same time,
these prospective sanctions play a positive and reinforcing role in
negotiations. The big winner is the administration. Its ability to pursue
a diplomatic path is enhanced by being able to communicate this position
in its negotiations with Iran. This is hardly a march to war, as some
critics have suggested. The legislation explicitly does not authorize the
use of force, though it does restate the language of a resolution, passed
99 to 0 by the Senate, supporting the United States' commitment to Israel,
should Israel be forced to defend itself against Iran. The American
public supports diplomacy. So do I. The American public doesn't trust the
Iranian regime. Neither do I. During this pivotal time, we have a
responsibility to work together across parties and branches of government
in the interest of achieving U.S. national security objectives. As the
Senate returns to work, let us concentrate our efforts on achieving
shared goals: a diplomatic resolution to Iran's pursuit of nuclear
weapons, coupled with a diplomatic insurance policy should negotiations
fail." http://t.uani.com/1fj3GHG
UANI Advisory
Board Member Fouad Ajami in WSJ: "The ground burns
in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Borders are being contested, and militant
Islamists have all but overwhelmed secular authorities. Yet America's
chief diplomat, Secretary of State John Kerry, was in the neighborhood
this week, for the 10th time, on an expedition to Israel and the
Palestinian territories. There was no sudden urgency to the impasse
between Israel and the Palestinians, nor had an opening presented itself
for serious negotiations. Israel's attention was focused, as it had to
be, on the large menace of Iran and its nuclear drive, and the
Palestinians remained mired in their own squabbles. It was the practice
of so many years that Arabs deployed what pressure they could exert on
the United States on behalf of the Palestinians. No longer. It is the
struggle for Syria, and the Iranian bid for primacy in the Fertile
Crescent, that engage the Arabs. This 'shuttle diplomacy' of our
secretary of state, if anything, is evidence of the retreat of American
power. President Obama and his foreign policy lieutenants are given to
the assertion that they don't want the U.S. caught in the middle of other
peoples' wars. But by deeds of commission and omission, the U.S. is
caught up in a deadly sectarian struggle between Shiite Iran and its
'sister republics' in the Arab world on one side, and the Sunni order of
Arab power on the other. Mastery of the arcane details of the Shiite-Sunni
schism may not be an American specialty, but over the last two years this
president and his advisers have placed the U.S. on the side of Iran and
its Arab satraps in Lebanon and, now, Iraq. Iran planned and prepared for
this fight. Its role in Lebanon dates to the early 1980s, when the regime
of Ayatollah Khomeini found fertile soil among the Shiites of that
country. Iran formed the Hezbollah militia in the country's south and in
the Bekaa Valley to the east. Hezbollah fighters, newly urbanized young
men in search of financial patronage and a sense of mission, came to
think of themselves as soldiers in Khomeini's wilayat al-faqih, a Shiite
notion involving ordained supremacy. The Sunnis had their Arab
nationalism and ties to the Arabs of Egypt and the Gulf; the Christians
had their sense of Lebanese identity and their ease with the West. With
Iran at the head, this was the Shiites' opportunity to conquer their
self-contempt and sense of isolation. But of late it is the breakdown of
the Syrian state, and the fight over that pivotal country, that has given
the Iranians this chance at a big role in Arab endeavors. Iran and
Syria made common cause in the 1980s when Old Man Assad still ruled. He
broke with the taboos of Arab brotherhood and sided with the Iranian
revolutionary regime in its war with Saddam Hussein. This wasn't an
alliance of equals, but Hafez Assad held his own in that delicate
relationship. His son, current President Bashar Assad, could not maintain
that balance, and the massive rebellion that broke out against his regime
in 2011 by the Sunni majority forced him into greater dependence on
Iranian subsidies and military support. The Sunni Arab charge that Syria
is now occupied by Iran is a slight exaggeration, but only ever so
slight. Iraq presented Iran with an entirely different setting. This was
a wealthy oil country, populous, with a jealous sense of its own place in
the region. After the American invasion in 2003, political primacy
belonged to Iraq's Shiites, but Iraqi Shiism was not eager to slip into
subordination to Iran's will and preferences. But here, too, the Syrian
war, and the lack of American interest and willpower were of immense help
to the Iranians. The U.S. had quit Iraq by the end of 2011, leaving no
residual forces... The sectarianism unleashed by the Syrian civil war
rendered the Iraqi government more susceptible to Iran's influence, and
helped poison the well between the Baghdad government and its Sunni
population... When the U.S. lay down the foundations of its presence in
the Arab world, it befriended and worked with the powers that be-the
Sunni regimes. The Shiites were then outsiders, and the inroads Iran was
to make into the Arab states were unthinkable. This is a radically
different moment. America's allies in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the smaller
states of the Gulf, and among the Sunnis in Lebanon and Syria can be
forgiven the conclusion that the U.S. has acquiesced in this Iranian
project. Washington is keen to conciliate Iran. Secretary Kerry has
proposed a role for the Iranians in negotiations over Syria-even as
Iranian forces and proxies are busy battering what is left of that
country. Beirut once mattered to the U.S., but we have left it to the
reign of Hezbollah, and what help comes to Lebanese moderates is now
offered by Saudi Arabia and France." http://t.uani.com/1evUv1p
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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