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AP:
"World powers are prepared to accept a nuclear agreement with Iran
that doesn't immediately answer questions about past atomic weapons work,
U.S. and Western officials said, even though Washington had previously
declared such concerns must be resolved in any final deal. The Obama
administration said after a November 2013 interim accord that a
comprehensive solution 'would include resolution of questions concerning
the possible military dimension of Iran's nuclear program.' Those
questions won't be answered by the June 30 deadline for a final deal,
officials said, echoing an assessment by the U.N. nuclear agency's top
official earlier this week... Instead of resolving such questions this
month, officials said the U.S. and its negotiating partners are working on
a list of future commitments Iran must fulfill in an agreement setting
decade-long curbs on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for billions of
dollars in sanctions relief. The suspension of some sanctions would be
tied to Iran finally answering all questions, giving world powers greater
leverage, said the officials, who weren't authorized to speak publicly on
the private discussions and demanded anonymity." http://t.uani.com/1I8Qde3
WSJ:
"When Abdullah, a Taliban commander in central Afghanistan, needs more
rifles and ammunition, he turns to the same people who pay his
$580-a-month salary: his Iranian sponsors. 'Iran supplies us with
whatever we need,' he said. Afghan and Western officials say Tehran has
quietly increased its supply of weapons, ammunition and funding to the
Taliban, and is now recruiting and training their fighters, posing a new
threat to Afghanistan's fragile security... Iran's strategy in backing
the Taliban is twofold, these officials say: countering U.S. influence in
the region and providing a counterweight to Islamic State's move into the
Taliban's territory in Afghanistan... 'Iran is betting on the
re-emergence of the Taliban,' said a Western diplomat. 'They are
uncertain about where Afghanistan is heading right now, so they are hedging
their bets.'" http://t.uani.com/1GBYD2F
WSJ:
"Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in a letter to
lawmakers that Iran and Hezbollah remain threats to the U.S., responding
to what Senate critics said was an omission in a global threat assessment
submitted to Congress earlier this year. Mr. Clapper told Republicans on
the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran and Hezbollah 'directly
threaten the interests of the United State and our allies.' The
intelligence community considers Iran to be the 'foremost state sponsor
of terrorism' and sees Tehran increasing its ability to influence
regional crises and conduct terrorism, largely through Iran's
Revolutionary Guard and Lebanese Hezbollah, Mr. Clapper wrote in the June
3 letter, the contents of which haven't been previously reported. Mr.
Clapper wrote in response to a letter lawmakers sent in April expressing
concern that the unclassified threat assessment report submitted to the
Senate earlier this year didn't fully represent the threat posed by
Iran's support for terrorist organizations and certain Shiite militias in
the Middle East. Iran and Hezbollah weren't included as terror threats in
the intelligence community's unclassified report presented to the Senate
in February." http://t.uani.com/1GBYXhW
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
WashPost:
"The deadline for completing the deal is June 30. With little time
left to influence the outcome, opponents and proponents are gearing up to
sway public and congressional reaction to the final agreement, which
lawmakers will have at least 30 days to review. AIPAC is 'undertaking a
major mobilization,' said an AIPAC official who declined to be named. It
has been joined in opposition to the anticipated agreement by the
American Jewish Committee and Republican-leaning think tanks and
political groups... Many believe the deadline will not be met. 'My own
view is that it's highly unlikely,' said Thomas R. Pickering, a former
top U.S. diplomat who has met with numerous members of Congress to build
support for the agreement. Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian
nuclear negotiator close to President Hassan Rouhani, told the Tehran
Times this week that talks might be extended an additional one to two
months and that it was 'more constructive in the long run for negotiators
to take the necessary time' to complete complicated annexes that will lay
out the specifics of the deal... If lawmakers do not receive a copy of
the agreement and all technical annexes by July 10, their review period
increases to 60 days, taking them beyond their summer recess and into the
fall session. In addition to whatever problems an extended review might
cause between Iran and the United States and its negotiating
partners...it would also give those opposed to the deal in this country more
time to build support for a disapproval vote." http://t.uani.com/1L56YNo
WashPost:
"Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) went to the Senate floor on Thursday
to cite chapter and verse on Iran's refusal to abide by current
agreements and the administration's penchant for making excuses. He put
the White House and Iran on notice that he will come 'again and again' to
the Senate floor to shine a light on Iran's conduct. The major portion of
his address came from an article written by an expert we have cited here before
- David Albright from the Institute for Science and International
Security. Menendez explained that Albright 'says that the State
Department's explanation of Iran's newly produced 3.5 percent enriched
uranium falls short and that the State Department seems to be making
excuses for the fact that Iran has not reduced its enrichment level which
they agreed to do in the Joint Plan of Action.' In other words, Iran is
not now reducing its nuclear stockpile, it is expanding it... That is not
all that concerns Menendez. Reading from a U.N. Security Council report,
he enumerated a host of other concerns: 'Iran has continued to deny the
legitimacy of Security Council resolutions not addressed in the Joint
Plan of Action; that Iran's arms transfers have actively continued,
raising concerns in particular in the region; that cases of
non-compliance with the travel ban have also been observed; that Iran has
continued certain nuclear activities including enrichment and work at
Arak; that there is no progress by Iran in addressing possible military
dimensions that had been agreed to by Iran and the IAEA.' He added, 'The
most troubling relates to allegations of large-scale high-explosives
experimentation at Parchin.'" http://t.uani.com/1QS7tsw
Tasnim (Iran):
"A top Iranian cleric outlined the main red lines in the nuclear
negotiations between Iran and world powers, urging the country's
parliament to pass a law requiring those necessities observed in a
possible agreement... He said a final nuclear deal should have the
entire anti-Iran sanctions terminated, and not suspended, as soon as it
takes effect. Among the other principles, the cleric added, are Iran's
rejection of talks 'under the specter of threats' and insistence that its
nuclear achievements should be safeguarded. Ayatollah Khatami reaffirmed
that no inspection of Iran's military sites or access to its nuclear
scientists for interviews will be ever permissible. He also made it clear
that the commitments under a deal should not be one-sided, meaning that
the measures of the other side should be also verifiable. And the final
red line, the cleric noted, is that the negotiations should deal with the
nuclear issue alone and discussing any other issue would be deemed
'illegitimate.' He further called on the Iranian parliament to pass a
law, making the Iranian officials legally bound to stick to those red
lines." http://t.uani.com/1Hzo4Rd
Sanctions
Relief
Breaking Energy:
"Oil and gas deals between China and Iran are set to change. Last
week, several news agencies in the region, including the Iran Daily and
Trend News Agency said that Iran and China have agreed that China would
pay in cash for the oil and gas it buys from Iran. China is currently the
biggest buyer of Iranian crude oil, purchasing more than 440,000 barrels
per day (b/d), but Tehran imports goods instead of receiving cash from
these sales... 'We wanted to transfer part of the export earnings to
other countries, such as South Korea and Japan, to pay for imports or
receive it in cash. Hence, consultations were made and an agreement was
reached in this respect,' said Asadollah Asgaroladi, chairman of the
Iran-China Chamber of Commerce. 'Under the new agreement with Chinese
authorities, it was decided that after a commission rebate, the balance
of the oil and gas exports earnings is returned to Iran,' Asgaroladi
said." http://t.uani.com/1Qtn9rk
Human Rights
Guardian:
"Iran's judiciary has unleashed a wave of heavy jail sentences
against artists and activists in what appears to be an attempt to send a
warning to those who dare to express dissent... Those targeted recently
include film-maker, writer and TV producer Mostafa Azizi, who has been
sentenced to eight years in prison, painter Atena Farghadani, sentenced
to 12 years, and anti-death-penalty activist Atena Daemi, sentenced to 14
years. All three have been found guilty of insulting Iran's supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, through their activities on social
networking sites such as Facebook. They have also been convicted of other
vague charges, which are often used against activists held on political
grounds, including 'spreading propaganda against the ruling
establishment'... 'The extremely harsh prison sentences handed down to
Mostafa Azizi, Atena Daemi and Atena Farghadani are another nail in the coffin
of freedom of expression in Iran, where the cost of voicing peaceful
dissent is escalating rapidly,' said Raha Bahreini, Amnesty
International's Iran researcher." http://t.uani.com/1MvDm9a
Free Beacon:
"A U.S. pastor imprisoned in Iran was reportedly beaten again last
week as his wife testified before Congress to help secure his freedom.
Saeed Abedini received an eight-year prison sentence in Iran for his
efforts to organize Christian house churches in the country, though his
participation occurred years before his charges. He has endured numerous
beatings throughout nearly three years of detention that have left him
with debilitating internal injuries. According to the American Center for
Law and Justice (ACLJ), the law firm that represents Abedini and his
family, he was abused again last week: 'Unprovoked, fellow
prisoners attacked Pastor Saeed as he attempted to leave his cell,
punching him in the face near his left eye and nose. In addition to
physically beating the persecuted pastor, prisoners demolished a small
table Pastor Saeed used to study and read.'" http://t.uani.com/1L5773f
Domestic
Politics
Reuters:
"An Iranian appeals court upheld the jail sentence of Mehdi Hashemi
Rafsanjani, son of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, on
corruption and security charges, state news agency IRNA quoted a
judiciary official as saying on Thursday. Rafsanjani appealed three
separate sentences issued in March by a Tehran Revolutionary Court that
amounted to 15 years in jail on charges involving national security and
embezzlement, Iranian media reported. 'The appeals court has confirmed
his initial sentences but under Iranian law he will only serve the
longest of the three, that is 10 years,' said judiciary spokesman
Gholamhosein Mohseni-Ejei, IRNA reported." http://t.uani.com/1QtjGZT
Opinion &
Analysis
Hanin Ghaddar in
Tablet: "U.S. administration officials are still
defending the nuclear deal by assuring us that Iran will only use the $50
billion 'signing bonus' they expect to receive on the country's internal
needs. No Iranian official has ever promised that, not even to the
Iranian people who have been struggling with economic hardships. Yet the
U.S. administration has presumed that Iran's infrastructure is more
significant to the regime than hegemony over Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.
Let's imagine a scenario where Iran decides to spend the windfall on
infrastructure and on addressing the needs of the Iranian people, as
Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew assured the world it will in an address
to the Washington Institute last month. The Iranian people will surely be
relieved, and the credibility of the reformists will probably increase.
But most significantly, Iran will become a nation with no ambitions for regional
dominance. Iran will eventually have to let go of Syria's Assad,
Hezbollah, and all their militias in the region-including those in Yemen
and Iraq, because the money is needed for infrastructure and to help
rebuild the country's own economy. The mullahs will then sit down with
the world powers to find a realistic political solution for Syria and
stop the bloodshed. Wonderful, isn't it? Unfortunately, the Obama
Administration's big hopes are unlikely to pan out, for two big reasons.
One, no one has forced or will force Iran-deal or no deal-to stop its
military operations in the region, so why would they? They can spend the
$50 billion both internally and on their regional militias and maintain
some kind of 'Resistance Economy' until sanctions are lifted and
investments get going. Two, Syria is too significant for Iran to just let
go, as Iranian officials have declared publicly many times. Without
Syria, Iran will lose its link to Hezbollah and thereby its leverage over
Lebanon and its borders with Israel. If this leverage is lost, Iran will
be forced to let go of its ambitions to become a main regional player and
to forget about exporting the Islamic Revolution, the hope on which the
regime was founded... A look at Iran's current budgeting shows that the country's
leadership seems to be boosting its military budgets at the expense of
providing services to the Iranian people. And contrary to recent
assertions by President Barack Obama himself, Iran's programs of regional
subversion and terror do not come cheap. Even under sanctions, Iran has
been bankrolling Hezbollah with up to $200 million a year. This budget
has been recently cut by 40 percent in 2015 due to the economic crisis
Iran is facing, which has been caused by sanctions and the drop in oil
prices. However, this cut affected Hezbollah's social and health
services, not its military budget. Services were sacrificed for the sake
of military strength... When Iran's finances improve, its services to its
people and the Shiites in Lebanon will improve-but not at the expense of
the military operations and regional goals. Obama's $50 billion check to
Iran will make sure of that." http://t.uani.com/1HzrjrZ
Lee Smith in The
Weekly Standard: "The problem isn't simply that
Obama has failed to come up with a strategy to defeat the Islamic State.
It's something far more disturbing: The region-wide Sunni rebellion
spearheaded by ISIS is the direct, dangerous fallout of the
administration's own Middle East policy. The president decided that a
deal with Iran is the be-all and end-all of his second term in office.
And to reach that deal, he would have to make nice with the clerical
regime in Tehran, subordinating all other regional issues that might get
in the way. This has meant tacitly or overtly siding with Iran's beleaguered
allies-the Assad regime in Syria and the Shiite-dominated Iraq government
in Baghdad, among others. The White House has thereby helped push many of
the Sunni Arab tribes who once fought against al Qaeda extremists into
ISIS's fold. ISIS and its tribal enablers will continue to advance unless
the White House changes direction and turns against Iran, which the Sunni
tribes of Iraq (and Syria) see as an even bigger threat than the Saudis,
Chechens, Tunisians, and other foreign fighters of the Islamic State. The
December 2011 withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq left a vacuum that has
been filled by Iran, in particular by Quds Force commander Qassem
Suleimani. The U.S. departure left Iraq's then-prime minister Nuri
al-Maliki free to wage a sectarian campaign against the Sunnis, including
the tribes who had fought side by side with American forces against Al
Qaeda in Iraq. Without U.S. troops on the ground, all the Obama
administration could do was petition Maliki to govern more inclusively.
Left to fend for themselves, the Sunnis eventually lined up with the
remnants of AQI as well as with the dead-enders from Saddam Hussein's
military and intelligence services who today constitute much of the
Islamic State's leadership. The Islamic State is in many respects simply
the bloodiest and most fanatical part of a regionwide Sunni uprising
against Iran's imperial ambitions in the Middle East. In March 2011,
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, another Iranian client, embarked on his
own sectarian war against the Sunnis. Obama told Assad to step aside but
did nothing to make it happen, even after Assad crossed Obama's red line
regarding the use of chemical weapons. In time, the Sunnis came to
understand that what seemed like American impotence was in reality the
White House expressing its preferences. In order to protect the nuclear
deal with Iran, Obama was siding with Tehran's allies and against
Tehran's rivals, the Sunni Arabs. After idly watching as hundreds of
thousands of Sunnis were slaughtered by Assad, the administration finally
moved to protect Yazidis and Christians targeted by ISIS in Iraq. The
White House said that there were no good guys in the Syrian conflict, but
U.S. airstrikes targeted ISIS and other Sunni terror organizations, even
while we promised Iran that we would avoid hitting Assad and Shiite
terror groups like Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC). Administration spokesmen and media surrogates explained that the
White House wasn't going to set up a no-fly zone in Syria and thereby
'serve as al Qaeda's air force.' But when Suleimani and Iraqi militias
couldn't take Tikrit back from ISIS on their own, the administration had
no problem tasking American pilots to, in effect, serve as the IRGC's air
force. The administration is similarly flying drones over Lebanon that
feed intelligence to Hezbollah-controlled units of the Lebanese Armed
Forces. The White House may believe that it's just fighting the Islamic
State, but that's not how it looks to the Sunnis in the Middle East. Iran
and its allies, including Syria, Hezbollah, Baghdad, even under new prime
minister Haidar al-Abadi, and Iraq's Shiite militias, are at war with the
Sunnis. Since Washington is now seen as Iran's ally, the White House is
also understood to be taking sides against the Sunnis, who happen to be
the regional majority by a margin of nearly nine to one. Iraq's Sunni
Arab tribes have thus lined up with ISIS because they don't see a better
choice. More U.S. troops on the ground aren't enough to change their
minds. Absent a change in policy, there will just be more Americans put
in harm's way on behalf of Iran's interests. By partnering with Iran, the
White House has only ensured that ISIS will grow, drawing its strength
from the wider Sunni population." http://t.uani.com/1f6Pnap
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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