Israel
Hopes to Use Current Lull to Prepare for Radical Islamic Storm
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
June 12, 2015
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If you ask defense officials in Israel today for a short-term security
forecast, chances are good that you will hear an optimistic outlook and an
expectation of relative quiet and stability.
Yet a longer-term glance at the next four to five years is less rosy,
and suggests the approach of storm clouds, driven by violent, radical
Islamic winds.
That's why defense chiefs are keen to use the coming years to improve
the Israeli military's readiness, build up intelligence and firepower
capabilities, and improve civil defenses, while the "sun is still
out."
Recent public comments by security figures provide a glimpse into this
long-term strategy.
Speaking this week at the 2015 Herzliya Conference, which focused on the issue of
Israeli deterrence, retired Maj.-Gen. Amos Gilad offered a mixed message:
"Our security situation hasn't been so good in a long time. We are
enjoying good deterrence on the northern front." Despite Hizballah's
massive rocket and missile arsenal pointed at Israel, the Lebanese terror
organization remains deterred by Israel.
That deterrence is based partly on the country's firepower and ground
offensive capabilities, and partly on the fact that Hizballah is entangled
neck deep in the Syrian civil war, where it has lost an estimated 700
fighters trying to save its ally, the Assad regime.
Following Iranian commands, Hizballah dispatched around 7,000 (of its
30,000) armed members to neighboring Syria, where they fight daily battles
against the Al-Nusra Front, Islamic State, and other Sunni terror
organizations. As a result, Hizballah's motivation for opening a new
front against Israel has never been lower.
Iran, too, is busy across the region. It is orchestrating the defense of
Assad's dwindling regime, and has sent very senior military advisers to
Syria to try to rescue it, injecting a constant flow of Shi'ite militias
from other countries, money and weapons.
But for Iran, the battle for Syria is already lost. The Alawites, backed
by Iran and Hizballah, and who rule Syria through dictator Basher Al-Assad,
make up just 10 percent of the population, while 80 percent of Syrians are
Sunnis.
The Iran-led axis is essentially fighting now to set up a statelet, made
up of sections of Damascus, and a corridor leading from the Syrian capital
to the west of the country, to the Latakia area that is the center of
gravity for the pro-regime Alawite community.
"I would like to announce the death of Syria," said Gilad, now
the director of the Defense Ministry's Political-Military and Police
Bureau. "Assad still gets a salary as president, but he governs a
third of Syria. Southern Syria is under al Qaida; northern Syria is controlled
by ISIS. There is nothing there and it has no future. Assad will continue
to diminish."
As the vacuum in Syria grows, radical Islamic forces – both Sunni and
Shi'ite - move in to fill it. The Islamic State is expanding in Syria, but
it is not getting closer to Israel's borders at this time. Hizballah and
Iran already tried to build a terrorism base on the Syrian Golan, near the
border with Israel, but an air strike in January foiled that effort.
Meanwhile, to the south, Israel's enemies are also preoccupied. In
the Gaza Strip, Hamas is busy rehabilitating its armed wing, restocking on
domestically-made rockets, and digging new tunnels.
Hamas is trying to take the pressure off itself and ease its isolation.
It is keen to kick start civilian reconstruction programs after last year's
war with Israel.
Renewed conflict does not seem to be in Hamas's current interest, as it
would disrupt its military reconstruction efforts and jeopardize its rule
in Gaza.
In fact, Israel is looking to help grow the Gazan economy, a development
that could further restrain Hamas.
Unconventional threats on Israel, meanwhile, are decreasing. Syria gave
up its chemical weapons program, and Iran's nuclear program is temporarily
frozen, though Tehran might be tempted to try to covertly break-out to
nuclear weapons production.
"The quiet is pretty amazing compared to all the turbulence around
us," Gilad said in his speech.
But how long will it last?
Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, the former head of Israel's National
Security Council, attempted to answer that question in a major new paper he published at the Begin-Sadat Center
for Strategic Studies, at Bar Ilan University.
Amidror noted that forces that come from the "dark world of the
choppy Middle East" are consolidating themselves on Israel's borders,
replacing state actors.
They include: Radical Salafi-jiahdis in the Sinai Peninsula and the
first signs of Islamic State forces rising in this vast desert Egyptian
province; the armed wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and its ally,
Islamic Jihad, in Gaza, and Hizballah in Lebanon, which is "the
strongest terror organization in the world. It is in possession of advanced
military force, over 100,000 missiles and rockets, surface to sea missiles,
surface to air missiles, and tens of thousands of armed, well trained
fighters, some of whom have gained combat experience in Syria."
Syria, Amidror said, is divided and ruled in part by extreme Sunni
entities, while Assad's regime is kept alive by Iranian and Hizballah
assistance (alongside quiet Russian help).
"Israel is surrounded by terrorist organizations that have
considerable offensive capabilities, from almost every direction. Their
ability may not be the same as those of official militaries (Hizballah is
the exception, due to its firepower capabilities), but because of their
character, we must take into account the need to go from routine times to
combat against them in a very short time frame, and without prior
warning," Amidror cautioned.
Israel will, in the coming years, have deal with non-state, armed,
radical Islamic organizations that are gaining strength around it, he said.
This development is part of a larger trend: The rise of radical Islam in
the Middle East. Future rounds of fighting with such forces will almost
definitely not be followed by peace, he predicted.
Israel must be ready to engage terrorists operating in the midst of
civilians who either support them or are indifferent to their presence. The
very presence of these noncombatants complicates combat and harms the IDF's
ability to act freely.
Despite their differences, rivalries, and feuds, all of the radical
Islamic groups have a common, fundamental attribute: They all believe that
Islam must rule the world, Amidror said.
Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, speaking to visiting Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey on Tuesday, noted the existence
of no fewer than "30 terrorist organization in Syria that we will have
to deal with. They are not dealing with us now, and we are not involved in
what is happening there, yet the moment can come when that will change. In
such a situation, we must strike them with force."
As a result, senior IDF officers say now is the time to focus on
intensive training and building-up the power of the air force, navy, ground
forces, and civil defenses.
Now is the time to increase readiness, because in five years, many of
these threats could bear down on Israel in a very direct way, according to
the officials.
The Israel Defense Forces, under the command of a newly appointed chief
of staff, Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, has begun to train in earnest.
The Israel Air Force is in training to increase its ability to strike
all of Hizballah's known targets – thousands of them – in just four to five
days. Navy and ground forces have to be able instantly launch large-scale
operations. The entire military must prepare for multi-front conflicts,
with an emphasis on northern battle arenas – Lebanon and Syria. All IDF
units must improve their combat skills in built-up areas.
Reserve military forces have begun training for two straight weeks –
double the previous training times. In the coming year, the reserve units
will be free of operational missions, to enable them to focus purely on
training.
The IDF is stocking up on advanced Namer armored personnel carriers, and
Merkava Mk 4 tanks, both of which come with active protection systems
against missiles and mortars, enabling them to safely travel into Hizballah
or Hamas-ruled areas rife with shoulder-launched missile ambushes.
With cyber-attacks becoming an ever-increasing threat, the IDF might
launch a new cyber warfare division in the coming months.
In the long run, the most dangerous threat, however, remains Iran,
according to the Defense Ministry's Amos Gilad.
"Iran is like a Greek god with two heads," he told the
Herzliya conference. "One says it wants negotiations [with the West],
the other is working to build a Shi'ite empire," he said.
Therefore, Israel must prepare for the potential of direct confrontation
with Iran, too.
Related Topics: Yaakov
Lappin, IDF,
Herzliya
Conference, Hizballah,
Hamas,
Islamic
State, Alawites,
Syrian
civil war, Amos
Gilad, Yaakov
Amidror, Moshe
Ya'alon, Gadi
Eisenkot
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