Turkey's
Unimportant Election
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Almost every assessment of the national parliamentary election to take
place in Turkey on June 7 rates it among the most important in the
republic's nearly century old history. The New
York Times deems it "crucial" and the London Daily
Telegraph "pivotal." Huffington
Post calls it "the biggest election" in the republic's
history. The Financial
Times declares that "Turkey's future is at stake."
But I disagree. I see it among the least important of Turkey's
elections. Here's why:
The focus is not the usual one on "Who will form the next
government?" Analysts agree that the Justice and Development Party
(Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, or AKP), in power since 2002, will win
again. But will it have to sign up a junior partner? Will it win
sufficient seats to change the constitution and fulfill President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan's plan to turn his position from a largely symbolic one
into a fully executive position?
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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
stumping for votes with a Koran in hand.
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Erdoğan wants powers so wide reaching that he actually compares them
to those wielded by absolute Saudi
monarchs. Ironically, those powers would be extracted from the prime
minister, which position Erdoğan filled for eleven years until last
August, when he voluntarily ceded the position to a hand-picked
successor, a mild-mannered
academic, and moved over to the grander but far less powerful
presidency.
Expressed numerically, the question fascinating Turks is whether the
AKP will win a one-seat majority (276 seats out of 550) to rule alone,
the 3/5s majority (330 seats) enabling it to change the constitution
pending a public referendum, or the 2/3s majority (367 seats) required to
change it unilaterally.
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Do Americans find a
similarity between Erdoğan's logo and that of a certain prominent U.S.
politician?
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The main drama concerns a new party, the leftist, Kurdish-oriented
Peoples' Democratic Party (Halkların Demokratik Partisi, or HDP): Will it
manage to reach the world's
highest threshold of 10 percent of the total vote and enter
parliament, in this, its first national campaign? If yes, it will could
deprive the AKP of its majority 276 seats; if no, the AKP will likely
reach that number and maybe even the magic 330.
But where others find high drama, I see near-tedium, and for two
reasons. First, the AKP has used ballot-box shenanigans and other dirty
tricks in the past; many indications point to its preparing to do so
again, especially in Kurdish-majority districts.
Second, since the moment Erdoğan's presidency began nine months ago,
he has behaved as though his wished-for constitutional changes had
already been effected; he has chaired cabinet meetings, chose AKP
candidates, leaned on the judiciary, and deployed a bevy of
"czars" to compete with the prime minister's staff. He is lord
of all he surveys.
He also blatantly defies the ban on political activities by the
president, illegally stumping the country, worshipful governmental media
at his disposal, Koran often in hand, urging citizens to vote AKP and
thereby enhance his powers as cumhurbaşkan.
As he transforms a flawed democracy and NATO ally into a rogue state,
ostrich-like Western governments sentimentally pretend it's still the
1990s, with Ankara a reliable ally, and abet his growing despotism.
Therefore, I conclude, how many seats the AKP wins hardly matters.
Erdoğan will barrel, bulldoze, and steamroll his way ahead, ignoring
traditional and legal niceties with or without changes to the
constitution. Sure, having fully legitimate powers would add a pretty
bauble to his résumé, but he's already tyrant and Turkey's course is set.
Being a brilliant domestic operator and also an egomaniac in a
tinderbox of a region suggests where Erdoğan's future troubles lie –
abroad. Under his leadership, Ankara suffers poor to terrible relations
at present with nearly the entire neighborhood, including Moscow,
Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Jerusalem, Cairo, Athens, the Republic of
Cyprus, and even with the new
leader of Turkish Cyprus.
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Smiles aside, Mustafa
Akıncı, the newly-elected head of Turkish Cyprus, has tense relations
with Erdoğan.
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Some foreign policy blunder on Erdoğan's part, perhaps with Russia (in
Ukraine) or Israel (in Gaza), perhaps in the killing fields of Syria or
the gas fields of Cyprus, will likely bring the Erdoğan era to its
shuddering and inglorious demise.
And when that moment arrives, hardly a soul will bring up the results
of the June 7 election; and none will remember it as a turning point.
Still, even an unimportant election matters: I invite readers to join
me in the unwonted experience of rooting for a left-wing party, the HDP,
to gain 10 percent of the vote, to win parliamentary representation, and
then, one hopes, cleverly to obstruct Erdoğan's power grab in what small
ways it can.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the
Middle East Forum. © 2015 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
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text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an
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