Posted: 21 Feb 2017 09:55 AM PST
Palestine is many things. A Roman name and a Cold War lie.
Mostly it’s a justification for killing Jews.
Palestine
was an old Saudi-Soviet scam which invented a fake nationality for the Arab
clans who had invaded and colonized Israel. This big lie transformed the
leftist and Islamist terrorists run by them into the liberators of an
imaginary nation. Suddenly the efforts of the Muslim bloc and the Soviet bloc
to destroy the Jewish State became an undertaking of sympathetically
murderous underdogs.
But the Palestine lie is past its sell by date.
What we think of as “Palestinian” terrorism was a low-level conflict pursued
by the Arab Socialist states in between their invasions of Israel. After
several lost wars, the terrorism was all that remained. Egypt, Syria and the
USSR threw in the towel on actually destroying Israel with tanks and jets,
but funding terrorism was cheap and low-risk. And the rewards were
disproportionate to the cost.
For less than the price of a single jet fighter, Islamic terrorists could strike
deep inside Israel while isolating the Jewish State internationally with
demands for “negotiations” and “statehood.”
After the Cold War ended, Russia was low on cash and the PLO’s Muslim sugar
daddies were tired of paying for Arafat’s wife’s shoe collection and his
keffiyah dry cleaning bills.
The terror group was on its last legs. “Palestine” was a dying delusion that
didn’t have much of a future.
That’s when Bill Clinton and the flailing left-wing Israeli Labor Party
which, unlike its British counterpart, had failed to adapt to the new
economic boom, decided to rescue Arafat and create ”Palestine”.
The resulting terrorist disaster killed thousands, scarred two generations of
Israelis, isolated the country and allowed Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and other
major cities to come under fire for the first time since the major wars. No
matter how often Israeli concessions were met with Islamic terrorism, nothing
seemed able to shake loose the two-state solution monkey on Israel’s back.
Destroying Israel, instantaneously or incrementally, had always been a small
price to pay for maintaining the international order.
The same economic forces that were transforming the world after the Cold War
had salvaged “Palestine”. Arafat had lost his sponsors in Moscow, but his new
sugar daddy’s name was “Globalism”.
The Cold War had been the focus of international affairs. What replaced it
was the conviction that a new world tied together by international commerce,
the internet and international law would be born.
The demands of a clan in Hebron used to be able to hijack the attention of
the world because the scope of the clash between Capitalism and Communism
could globalize any local conflict. Globalization was just as insistent on
taking local conflicts and making them the world’s business through its
insistence that every place was connected. The terrorist blowing up an
Israeli pizzeria affected stock prices in New York, the expansion prospects
of a company in China and the risk of another terrorist attack in Paris. And
interconnectedness, from airplane hijacking to plugging into the
international’s left alliance of global protest movements, had become the
best weapon of Islamic terrorists.
But now globalization is dying. And its death may just take “Palestine” with it.
A new generation of leaders is rising who are actively hostile to
globalization. Trump and Brexit were the most vocal rebukes to
transnationalism. But polls suggest that they will not be the only ones. The
US and the UK, once the vanguards of the international order, now have
governments that are competitively seeking national advantages rather than
relying on the ordered rules of the transnational safety net.
These governments will not just toss aside their commitment to a Palestinian
state. Not when the Saudis, Qataris and countless other rich and powerful
Muslim countries bring it up at every session.
But they will be less committed to it.
45% of Americans support the creation of a PLO state. 42% are opposed. That's
a near split. These historical numbers have to be viewed within the context
of the larger changes sweeping the country.
The transnationalists actively believed that it was their job to solve the
problems of other countries. Nationalists are concerned with how the problems
of other countries directly impinge on them without resorting to the mystical
interconnectedness of everything, from climate change to global justice, that
is at the core of the transnational worldview.
More intense competition by Western nations may make it easier for Islamic
agendas to gain influence through the old game of divide and conquer. Nations
facing terrorism will still find that the economic influence of Islamic oil
power will rally the Western trading partners of Islam against them.
But without the transnational order, such efforts will often amount to little
more than lip service.
Nationalist governments will find Israel’s struggle against the Islamic
invaders inconvenient because it threatens their business interests, but they
will also be less willing to rubber stamp the terror agenda the way that
transnationalist governments were willing to do. The elimination of the
transnational safety net will also cause nationalist governments to look
harder at consequences and results.
Endlessly pouring fortunes into a Palestinian state that will never exist
just to keep Muslim oil tyrants happy is not unimaginable behavior even for a
nationalist government. Japan has been doing just that.
But it will be a less popular approach for countries that don’t suffer from
Japan’s energy insecurity.
Transnationalists are ideologically incapable of viewing a problem as
unsolvable. Their faith in human progress through international law made it
impossible for them to give up on the two-state solution.
Nationalist governments have a colder and harder view of human nature. They
will not endlessly pour efforts and resources into a diplomatic black hole.
They will eventually take “No” for an answer.
This won’t mean instantaneous smooth sailing for Israel. It will however mean
that the exit is there.
For two decades, pledging allegiance to the two-state solution and its intent
to create a deadly Islamic terror state inside Israel has been the price
demanded of the Jewish State for its participation in the international
community. That price will not immediately vanish. But it will become easier
to negotiate.
The real change will be on the “Palestinian” side where a terrorist
kleptoracy feeds off human misery in its mansions downwind of Ramallah. That
terror state, conceived insincerely by the enemies of the West during the
Cold War and sincerely brought into being by Western transnationalists after
the Cold War ended, is a creature of that transnational order.
The “Palestinian Authority”, a shell company of the PLO which is a shell
company of the Fatah terrorists, has no economy worth speaking of. It has
foreign aid. Its diplomatic achievements are achieved for it by the
transnational network of foreign diplomats, the UN, the media and assorted
international NGOs. During the last round of “negotiations”, Secretary of
State John Kerry even attempted to do the negotiating on behalf of the
Palestinian Authority in the talks with Israel.
Take away the transnational order and the Palestinian Authority will need a
new sugar daddy. The Saudis are better at promising money than actually
delivering it. Russia may decide to take on the job. But it isn’t about to
put in the money and resources that the PA has grown used to receiving from
us.
Without significant American support, the Palestinian Authority will perish.
And the farce will end.
It won’t happen overnight. But Israel now has the ability to make it happen
if it is willing to take the risk of transforming a corrosive status quo into
a conflict that will be more explosive in the short term, but more manageable
in the long term.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, in stark contrast to rivals on the left like Peres
and on the right like Sharon, is not a gambler. The peace process was a big
gamble. As was the withdrawal from Lebanon and the expulsion from Gaza. These
gambles failed and left behind scars and enduring crises.
Unlike the prime ministers before and after him, Netanyahu has made no big
moves. Instead he serves as a sensible steward of a rising economy and a growing
nation He has stayed in office for so long because Israelis know that he
won’t do anything crazy. That sensible stewardship, which infuriated Obama
who accused him of refusing to take risks, has made him one of the longest
serving leaders in Israeli history.
Netanyahu is also a former commando who participated in the rescue of a
hijacked airplane. He doesn’t believe in taking foolish risks until he has
his shot all lined up. But the time is coming when not taking a risk will be
a bigger risk than taking a risk. Eventually he will have to roll the dice.
The new nationalist wave may not hold. The transnational order may return. Or
the new wave may prove darker and more unpredictable. It’s even possible that
something else may take its place.
The status quo, a weak Islamist-Socialist terror state in Ramallah supported
by the United States, a rising Muslim Brotherhood terror state in Gaza backed
by Qatar and Turkey, and an Israel using technological brilliance to manage
the threat from both, is already unstable. It may collapse in a matter of
years.
The PLO has inflicted a great deal of diplomatic damage on Israel and Hamas
has terrorized its major cities. Together they form an existential threat
that Israel has allowed to grow under the guise of managing it. The next few
years may leave Israel with a deadlier and less predictable struggle.
“Palestine” is dying. Israel didn’t kill it. The fall of the transnational
order did. The question is what will take its place. As the nationalist wave
sweeps the West, Israel has the opportunity to reclaim its nation.
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