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TOP STORIES
Uncertainty surrounding the sanctions on Iran and its
relations with the United States pose a risk to the oil-producing
nation's economy, the International Monetary Fund said Monday. The
comments were a reference to the new sanctions the Trump
administration imposed early this month on individuals and companies
supporting Iran's ballistic missile program and the Revolutionary
Guards military force... The IMF's annual report on Iran's economy,
known as the Article IV review, said "renewed uncertainty regarding
sanctions is dampening sentiment." The IMF staff said in their
assessment the country benefited from higher oil production and is
expected to grow 6.6 percent in 2016/2017, before easing to 3.3
percent in the next year. However, the uncertainty surrounding the
nuclear agreement "and especially relations with the US, could
deter investment and trade with Iran and short-circuit the
anticipated recovery," the report cautioned. "If the
agreement is derailed, the economy could risk recession."
Reimposing sanctions "would lower direct investment and capital
inflows, and disconnect Iran from the global financial system."
Jafar Mojarrad, IMF executive director for Iran, noted that,
"Regrettably, remaining US sanctions and related uncertainty
have hindered the return of global banks to the Iranian market and
continue to hamper large-scale investment and trade."
Victims of terror attacks against Americans in the
1970s, '80s and '90s will start receiving checks in coming weeks from
a $1.1 billion compensation fund carved out of a settlement struck
between the U.S. government and a French bank, BNP Paribas SA. The
government last week began sending out letters notifying roughly
2,300 victims or their surviving relatives they were in line for
money from the fund, which was established by Congress in 2015. The
fund is designed to compensate people who were injured in terror
attacks before 2001 as well as the families of those killed. Those
include victims of the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in Africa, the 1983
and 1984 attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, the families of the
hostages taken at the U.S. Embassy in Iran in 1979, and the family of
Malcolm Kerr, a university president in Beirut when he was killed by
terrorists in 1984. One of Mr. Kerr's sons, Steve Kerr, is now a basketball
coach in the NBA... The settlement follows charges that BNP evaded
U.S. sanctions against Iran and other countries for years, creating a
tie between the wrongdoing and the issue of terrorism.
Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan said
Monday that Iran has successfully test-fired the latest version of a
submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) named 'Nasir' during
Velayat-95 military war game conducted by the Iranian naval forces.
'During the military drills in the Iranian territorial waters in the
South, the new model of the SLCM named Nasir was test-fired and
successfully hit its target,' he said.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran's economy rebounded out of a recession after the
nuclear deal with world powers, the International Monetary Fund said
on Tuesday, though uncertainty over future sanctions and problems
plaguing the country's domestic banks could cause fiscal trouble
ahead. Iran's real gross domestic product grew by 7.4 percent, buoyed
by the quick re-entry of Iranian oil on the international market,
according to the IMF. Inflation also dropped to single digits while
GDP growth is expected to stabilize around 4.5 percent, the IMF said.
But ordinary Iranians largely have yet to see any of the benefits
from the nuclear accord, which saw some international sanctions
lifted in exchange for Iran limiting its uranium enrichment. Meanwhile,
concerns persist about what a harder line, promised by the
administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, will mean for the
Islamic Republic. "The lifting of sanctions and (Iran's)
ambitious reform agenda are yet to produce their full beneficial impact
on the Iranian economy," Jafar Mojarrad, an IMF executive
director, wrote in an addendum to the report. "Regrettably,
remaining U.S. sanctions and related uncertainty have hindered the
return of global banks to the Iranian market and continue to hamper large-scale
investment and trade."
Russia's No. 2 oil producer Lukoil hopes to reach a
deal to develop two oilfields in Iran in April, Chief Executive Vagit
Alekperov said on Monday. Lukoil said last month that it was in talks
with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) on taking part in
development of the Abe Timur and Mansuri fields in central-western
Iran. It said it would start talks on contractual terms if Iran
agrees to the development plans Lukoil has already submitted. "A
large number of our experts have been working in Iran. Once the (new)
oil law in Iran is in place - it has not been completed yet - we,
with the current pace of work, will be able to be ready for signing
the deal in April," the veteran chief executive told Reuters.
Total is in talks to buy a multi-billion dollar stake
in Iran's partly-built liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility,
Iran LNG, seeking to unlock vast gas reserves. The French oil major
-- the first of its peers to strike deals in Iran after sanctions --
seeks entry into Iran LNG at a discount to the pre-sanctions price in
exchange for reviving the stalled project, two sources with knowledge
of the matter said. A third source confirmed Total was in the running
for a stake, alongside several other oil majors, but any deal was
still some way off. Total declined to comment. Iran's National Gas
Export Co. (NIGEC), a central stakeholder in the project, did not
respond to requests for comment by email and phone. "Iran is
trying to revamp its oil and gas projects and the abandoned LNG plant
is one of them," the third source added.
State-owned energy company Pertamina will submit
proposals to the Iranian government for the exploration of two oil
fields in the country, a press statement says. The statement, issued
by the Office of the Coordinating Economic Minister, says the
proposals will be submitted during a visit of Coordinating Economic
Minister Darmin Nasution to the country from Feb. 26 to 27. "The
oil fields are located in Ab Teymour and Mansouri, Bangestan
province, the eastern part of Iran," said a press statement on
Monday. Based on a study conducted by Pertamina, the oil reserves in
the two fields amount to 1.5 billion barrels. "The production
potential reaches 200,000 barrel per day in each field," the
statement says. Previously, Energy and Mining Resources Deputy
Minister Archandra Tahar previously expressed the government's wish
to do business in Iran.
A new player has been created in Iran's industrial gas
industry, as The Linde Group and Delvar Afzar Industrial Gases have
teamed up in a joint venture. The Tier One corporation and Delvar
Afzar Industrial Gases, part of the Delvar Afzar Industrial Group,
have united under the name 'Linde Delvar Afzar Industrial Gases'
(LDAIG). It is understood that in pooling strengths and leveraging
the assets of both parties, LDAIG aims to become a leading supplier
of industrial merchant gases and healthcare gases in the Middle
Eastern country. The company also aims to implement an industrial gas
culture and develop new sales for molecules including both liquids
and gases. Delvar Afzar's facilities will provide the majority of the
company's liquid gases supply. Linde CEO Professor Dr. Aldo Belloni,
Linde Board Member Bernd Eulitz and Dr. Iraj Ghorbani, CEO of Delvar
Afzar Industrial Group, signed the agreement to establish the new
organisation on 17th January in Iran.
Iran's Rise Investment and Strategy Extension Company
(RISECO) and France's Mecaplast Group signed a joint venture deal on
manufacturing auto parts, IRNA reported on Friday. The deal, which
was signed by Rise Holding Group's Chairman of the Board Hamidreza
Samadi and Mecaplast's CEO Pier Boulet in Paris, focuses on
production of automotive engine and decorative parts. As Samadi
informed, according to the penned deal, 30 percent of the jointly
manufactured products will be exported. The signing ceremony was also
attended by Iran's Ambassador to Paris Ali Ahani.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
In the midst of the usual Washington cacophony, most
are missing the point that the Trump administration is beginning to
lay the foundations of a sensible Iran policy. The Islamist regime
that has been busy over the past few years brandishing a narrative of
success with its triumphs in the region seems unsettled by the
tough-talking new Trump team. An uneasy Iran is likely to be a
hesitant one, hunkering down until the storm passes. It is the Trump
administration's task to ensure the storm lingers over Tehran. This
is not the first time the theocratic regime has faced a hard-hitting
American adversary. The well-honed Iranian strategy of dealing with
such challenges is to behave with caution until the United States
gets distracted by another crisis and then to resume their nefarious
activities in full force. It is a formula that has historically
served the regime well, as Iran and its machinations have not
remained an important priority for even hawkish administrations with
too many other entanglements... The task at hand for the Trump
administration is to build on its initial success and to develop a
systematic and disciplined approach to Iran that will not be
distracted by other competing mandates. Despite its grandiose
pretensions, the Iranian regime is disdained by its neighbors. A
state whose primary instruments of power are terrorism and subversion
and whose closest allies are Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad does not have too many adherents in the region. Still, the
clerical regime's principal vulnerability remains at home as it rules
over a restive population tired of its cruelty and corruption.
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