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TOP STORIES
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard has launched several
sophisticated rockets during military exercises, Iranian media
reported on Monday... the launch of the "smart and
advanced" rockets came during an annual three-day maneuver which
began on Monday in Iran's central desert... Gen. Mohammad Pakpour,
head of the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces told the channel that
rockets with ranges of more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) as well as
the Fajr-3, Fajr-4 and Fajr-5 rockets, all believed to have under
100-kilometer range, were all successfully tested in the exercise.
Saudi Arabia and Israel both called on Sunday for a
new push against Iran, signaling a growing alignment in their
interests, while U.S. lawmakers promised to seek new sanctions on the
Shi'ite Muslim power. Turkey also joined the de facto united front
against Tehran as Saudi and Israeli ministers rejected an appeal from
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for Sunni Gulf Arab
states to work with Tehran to reduce violence across the region.
While Saudi Arabia remains historically at odds with Israel, their
ministers demanded at the Munich Security Conference that Tehran be
punished for propping up the Syrian government, developing ballistic
missiles and funding separatists in Yemen... Saudi Foreign Minister
Adel al-Jubeir called Tehran the main sponsor of global terrorism and
a destabilizing force in the Middle East. He sidestepped a question
about Israel's call for concerted action with Sunni Arab states amid
growing speculation that the two countries could normalize relations
and join forces to oppose Tehran, much as Turkey has done...
"Iran remains the single main sponsor of terrorism in the
world," Adel al-Jubeir told delegates at the conference.
"It's determined to upend the order in the Middle East ... (and)
until and unless Iran changes its behavior it would be very difficult
to deal with a country like this."
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on
Tuesday for the "complete liberation" of Palestine from the
"tumour" of Israel, renewing his regime's refusal to recognise
Israel's right to exist. Khamenei was speaking at the sixth
international conference in support of Palestinian intifada
(uprising), one of a number of showcase events the Tehran authorities
organise in solidarity with the Palestinians. "This cancerous
tumour, since its start, has grown incrementally and its treatment
must be incremental too," Khamenei said in a speech broadcast
live on state television. "Multiple intifadas and continuous
resistance have succeeded in achieving very important incremental
goals. "It continues to advance towards its other objectives,
ultimately the complete liberation of Palestine," he added...
Moderate President Hassan Rouhani, and the conservative brothers who
head parliament and the judiciary -- Ali Larijani and Ayatollah
Sadegh Larijani -- flanked the supreme leader as he spoke.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John
Bolton, who is reportedly on President Trump's consideration list for
the next national security advisor, said he does not think the Trump
administration will be able to break up Russia and Iran's alliance.
"I don't see how. They both are and have been strong supporters
of the Assad regime. Russia is not going to back away from that
regime," Bolton said after his recent speech at a United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) and the Jewish Institute for National Security of
America (JINSA) Capitol Hill briefing about the future of Iran
policy... PJM asked Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) the same question. In
his answer, Gardner referenced a letter that he wrote along with
other senators to Trump about adopting a tougher policy toward
Russia. "Every president in recent history has tried to start
talking to Russia: President Obama did, President Bush did, President
Trump did. But there are certain lines we cannot cross and certain
things we cannot allow Russia to skate by with and that needs to be
made clear. So do I think it's good to talk about things of mutual
interest? Yes. Do I think it's bad to give up on national interest?
Yes," he said.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
U.S. Republican senators plan to introduce legislation
to impose further sanction on Iran, accusing it of violating U.N.
Security Council resolutions by testing ballistic missiles and acting
to "destabilize" the Middle East, a U.S. senator said
Sunday. "I think it is now time for the Congress to take Iran on
directly in terms of what they've done outside the nuclear
program," Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed
Services Committee, told the Munich Security Conference. Graham said
he and other Republicans would introduce measures to hold Iran
accountable for its actions. "Iran is a bad actor in the
greatest sense of the word when it comes to the region. To Iran, I
say, if you want us to treat you differently then stop building
missiles, test-firing them in defiance of U.N. resolution and writing
'Death to Israel' on the missile. That's a mixed message,"
Graham said. Senator Christopher Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, told the same panel there was nothing preventing
Congress from imposing sanctions beyond those that were lifted as a
result of the 2016 nuclear agreement with Iran. Murphy, a Democrat,
told the panel that he had backed the nuclear deal in the explicit
understanding that it would not prevent Congress from taking actions
against Iran outside the nuclear issue.
With a new leader in the White House bent on
disrupting the status quo, could it also be time for a fresh approach
to Middle East peace? The United States this week encouraged a
"regional" solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
backing a proposal for the Jewish state to unite with Sunni Arab
powers against Shiite Iran, their common foe... US experts said the
alignment of interests between Israel and Sunni Arab countries
against the Iranian regime should be supported by the Trump
administration, which has already broken from the policies of
predecessor Barack Obama who had signed the landmark deal giving
Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear
ambitions.
Iran's foreign minister brushed aside new pressure
from the United States on Sunday, declaring that his country is
"unmoved by threats" but responds well to respect...
"Iran doesn't respond well to threats," Iranian Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the Munich Security Conference, an
annual gathering of top diplomats and defense officials. "We
don't respond well to coercion. We don't respond well to sanctions,
but we respond very well to mutual respect. We respond very well to
arrangements to reach mutually acceptable scenarios"... He
mocked "the concept of crippling sanctions," which he said
didn't stop Iran acquiring thousands more centrifuges, used for
enriching uranium, before talks with the U.S. on the nuclear
agreement got underway... Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina
Republican, said that Iran has been working to try and build a
nuclear weapon, and "if they say they haven't, they're lying."
He proposed new sanctions in Iran for various reasons, including what
he said were violations of U.N. resolutions and destabilizing the
Mideast. "I think it is now time for the Congress to take Iran
on directly," he said. "I think most Republicans are on
board with that concept and we'll see where President Trump's
at."
A group of nearly 100 prominent Iranian dissidents is
demanding that Congress launch investigations into clandestine
efforts by the Islamic Republic to influence U.S. policy using a
network of lobbyists and propaganda pieces placed in Voice of
America's Persian service, according to a letter sent to leading
lawmakers and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. The group of
dissidents, composed of prominent Iranian voices that oppose the
hardline regime in Tehran, says that Congress is not doing enough to
expose the Iranian regime's lobbying efforts in D.C. and propaganda
network, which is said to include some at VOA Persia... Organizations
such as the National Iranian American Council, or NIAC, which played
a key role in championing the Iran nuclear agreement and worked
closely with the Obama administration, have long operated under a
cloud of suspicion. Dissident voices maintain that NIAC in particular
serves as a mouthpiece for Iran's regime in the United States. The
group of dissidents-which includes foreign policy experts, university
professors, interfaith leaders, prominent real estate developers, and
human rights activists, among others-also requested that Congress
shine a light on VOA Persia's activities... Peter Kohanloo, a chief
architect of the letter and president of the Iranian American
Majority, told the Free Beacon that the missive represents an
unprecedented effort by Iranian dissidents to expose the Iranian
regime's "influence-peddling agenda."
REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION
Iran summoned the Turkish ambassador in Tehran on
Monday over comments made by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu and President Tayyip Erdogan accusing the Islamic Republic
of destabilizing the region... On Sunday, Cavusoglu told delegates at
a security conference in Munich, "Iran wants to turn Syria and
Iraq into Shi'ite," according to Turkey's state-run Anadolu news
agency. Cavusoglu also said Turkey was against any sectarianism in
the Middle East and had called on Iran to stop threatening the
region's stability and security. "We will be patient with their
positions," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi
said on Monday in reference to the comments made in Munich, according
to the Mehr News agency. "But there is a certain cap for our patience."
The Turkish foreign ministry responded by saying Iran should
"revise its regional policies and take constructive steps,
rather than criticizing countries that voice criticism of Iran"
Iran on Monday criticised what it said was
coordination between Israel and regional rival Saudi Arabia,
describing attempts to create an "international atmosphere"
against Tehran. Foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said the
two countries "imagine they can compensate for their numerous
defeats and failures in the region by creating an international
atmosphere against our country." The alignment is "not
accidental", he was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news
agency. Israel and Saudi Arabia accuse Iran of fuelling regional
conflicts by supporting armed Shiite movements in Syria, Iraq, Yemen
and Bahrain.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Japan's Mitsubishi Corp bought a naphtha cargo from
Iran last month, the Asian country's first such purchase from Iran
since October 2016, sources familiar with the matter said. The
naphtha cargo, loaded in late January, has arrived in Japan and is
from the new Persian Gulf Star Refinery (PGSR), one source added... A
Mitsubishi spokesman confirmed it had bought naphtha from Iran
recently, but declined to comment on details or which refinery the
cargo was from due to company policy.
Russia hopes to get around European Union sanctions by
reaching a deal with Iran for the supply of gas turbine equipment for
two power plants in Crimea, the head of Russian state defence
conglomerate Rostec said on Monday. EU sanctions bar European
individuals and companies from providing energy technology to Crimea,
which was annexed by Moscow from Ukraine in 2014.
South Africa's MTN has increased its investment in an
Iranian e-commerce business, it said on Monday, without disclosing
the size of the transaction. MTN, Africa's largest mobile phone
company, told Reuters last year that it planned to expand in Iran,
where it has a leading position but from which it has not been able
to repatriate profits until recently due to U.S. sanctions. MTN said
its Iranian unit Irancell led a funding round for the Iran Internet
Group (IIG) to accelerate the e-commerce group's growth.
Iraq and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on
Monday to study the construction of a pipeline to export crude oil
from the northern Iraqi fields of Kirkuk via Iran, the Iraqi oil
ministry said in a statement. The agreement, signed in Baghdad by the
oil ministers of the two countries, also calls for a commission to
solve a conflict about joint oilfields and the possible
transportation of Iraqi crude to Iran's Abadan refinery, it said. The
pipeline would help Iraq diversify the export routes of crude
produced in Kirkuk and reduce its reliance on transit through the
Kurdish Region Government's territory.
Iran expects its oil production to reach 4 million
barrels per day by mid-April, and plans to drill 500 new wells over
the next five years to raise output to 4.7 million bpd, a senior oil
official was quoted as saying on Saturday.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranian chess officials have barred two teen siblings
from domestic chess tournaments and the national team for crossing
some of the religious establishment's so-called red lines at an
international chess event. The Iranian National Chess Team dismissed
18-year-old Dorsa Derakhshani for appearing at the Tradewise
Gibraltar Chess Festival 2017, which ran from January 23 to February
2, without the Islamic head scarf that became compulsory in Iran after
the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Her 15-year-old brother, Borna
Derakhshani, was banned for playing against an Israeli opponent at
the same event.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Days of protests over dust storms, power failures and
government mismanagement in one of Iran's most oil-rich cities
subsided on Sunday after security forces declared all demonstrations
illegal. Residents of Ahvaz, a city with a majority Arab population
near the border with Iraq, had been protesting for five days in
increasingly large gatherings, shown in cellphone video clips shared
on social media. The region around Ahvaz is a center of oil
production in Iran, and since economic sanctions were lifted, Iran's
government has been hoping for foreign investment in the area to
update refineries and power stations and fix deepening ecological
problems. The cellphone clips show protesters calling for the
resignation of the local governor. And as the number of demonstrators
grew, the demands started to include a call for top officials from
the capital, Tehran, to come to Ahvaz to see the problems for
themselves... In the weeks before the demonstrations, Ahvaz was hit
by large dust storms. Rain turned the dust into mud, which caused
power stations to stop working... In addition to the short-term
effects of the dust storm, the city is wrestling with long-term
environmental challenges. Ahvaz, home to around one million people,
is surrounded by petrochemical factories that emit pollutants on a
large scale. A 15-year drought, in combination with poorly planned
dam building, has caused local marshes to dry up, increasing the
level of dust particles in the air to record highs. The World Health
Organization said in 2015 that Ahvaz was the most polluted city in
the world. Locals said they felt ignored and had had enough. "We
feel as if we live in a special zone, where the government only makes
money from," said Mobin Ataee, a local student. "It seems
they would prefer people to leave so they can turn this whole area
into an oil-business-only region."
Iran's transport minister survived a no-confidence
vote in parliament on Sunday, state media reported, defeating a
motion which could have derailed Iran's landmark deals with
planemakers Boeing and Airbus. In a session broadcast live on state
radio, 176 lawmakers voted against and 74 for the no-confidence
motion which accused Roads and Urban Development Minister Abbas
Akhoundi of mismanagement after a railroad collision and over alleged
lack of transparency in the plane purchases. Akhoundi helped steer
Iran's move to sign contracts with Airbus and U.S. rival Boeing last
year to purchase about 180 passenger planes, the first direct deal by
Tehran to buy Western-built aircraft in nearly 40 years.
Iran has found shale oil reserves of 2 billion barrels
of light crude in its western Lorestan province, a senior official at
the state-run National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) was quoted as
saying on Saturday... [He] said exploration was also being carried
out for shale gas reserves in the area, and the studies were expected
to be completed by October, 2017. Iran's proven oil reserves of about
160 billion barrels, almost 10 percent of the world's total, rank it
fourth among petroleum-rich countries.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
When Iranian minister of foreign affairs Mohammad
Javad Zarif speaks to the Munich Security Conference this weekend,
his words are likely to be misleading at best and deceitful at worst.
But it is nonetheless appropriate that Iran be represented at this
premier world security conference because Iran continues to be the
greatest threat there is to world security. Mr. Zarif may proclaim,
as he has before, that Iran will "never initiate war" even
though it is obvious that is exactly what Iran has done, for years,
either directly or indirectly through radical Islamist terrorist
proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Mr. Zarif may again accuse the United
States of breaking the Nuclear Agreement between Iran and the P5+1,
but, of course, it is Iran that has broken at least two explicit
obligations of the Agreement and tested ballistic missiles in
defiance of UNSC Resolution 2231 which endorses the Nuclear
Agreement. America has a new president and his views about Iran are
quite different from his predecessor. After Iran recently tested
those ballistic missiles, president Trump's national security adviser
publically put the Iranians "on notice" that the US would
respond to such belligerent behaviour. And then the Trump
administration's Treasury department imposed new economic sanctions
on Iran. Thus far the US has been alone in standing up to Iran, but
if the US remains alone, Iran will only grow stronger, bolder, and
more threatening to the rest of the world. Therefore the support of
the European allies is needed.
... [T]he Trump administration is facing its first
foreign policy tests less than a month after the inauguration.
Unsurprisingly, the two actors who are actively testing President
Trump's resolve come straight from George W. Bush's "axis
of evil": Iran and North Korea, two of America's most implacable
adversaries. What is more intriguing is whether the two are
coordinating their ballistic missile tests - and how much support
they are receiving from their "sugar daddies" in Moscow and
Beijing... Future sanctions may involve not just the two
terror-supporting states, but companies in Russia and China that are
working to boost the missile efforts in both countries. Beyond that,
the administration may consider broader deployment of missile
defenses in the Middle East, South Korea, and Japan, and potentially,
U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in vicinity of the two aggressors...
Sources in the Arab Gulf suggest that Tehran may be involved in
testing its nuclear weapons and developing its ICBMs in North Korea.
.. The Trump administration and U.S. allies also need to broaden
their focus from Iran's nuclear program to take in Teheran's
aggressive and disruptive behavior in the Middle East. Today, four
Arab capitals: Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana'a, are effectively
being controlled by Teheran. Moreover, Iran is a strategic ally of
Russia in the Middle East, and it allows Russian bombers to use its
air space for air strikes in Syria. The Europeans need to limit their
rush to trade with Iran by conditioning investment in the Iranian
economy on cessation of the missile program and expanding JCPOA to
permanently stop uranium enrichment. The IRGC, which runs the missile
testing and production, as well as the nuclear program, need all
their numerous businesses sanctioned - inside and outside Iran. This
should include IRGC leaders, their family members, and their
businesses. Any companies that do business with Iran's military
proxies, such as Lebanese and Iraqi Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels,
which threaten navigation off the coasts of Yemen and at the
strategic Bab-el-Mandeb straits, should also be sanctioned.
Maybe President Trump's bluster masks a growing
recognition within the administration that the deal is a good one for
America's security and that of our allies... But any apparent retreat
by the administration may be temporary and tactical - not a strategic
rethink. While Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State
Rex W. Tillerson are said to counsel sticking with the deal, senior
White House advisers continue to talk it down around Washington.
These advisers do recognize that a frontal assault - through
unilateral American withdrawal - would divide us from our European,
Russian and Chinese negotiating partners, isolating the United States
rather than Iran. Instead, they envisage the deal's demise by other
means... One approach is to demand a "better deal."
President Trump's broadsides help lay the predicate for a
renegotiation. This might be focused on greater access to military
sites or on the agreement's "sunset provisions," through
which some constraints on Iran's nuclear program will be phased out
over time. Or it could center on Iran's testing of ballistic missiles
capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which is not covered by the
agreement and remains subject to sanction under a United Nations
Security Council resolution - and for which Mr. Flynn put Iran
"on notice"... Given the effort that went into reaching the
agreement and its complexity, it is highly unlikely the other
signatories would support a renegotiation. Unless, that is, the
administration offered "more for more" - for example,
greater economic benefits to Iran in return for additional
constraints on its nuclear program. It is equally implausible that
the Trump administration would be willing to "give" Iran
anything. The main purpose of demanding a renegotiation would be to
generate a slow-motion breakdown while muddying the waters so that
Washington could avoid blame.
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