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TOP STORIES
Three months before presidential elections in Iran, it
appears incumbent Hassan Rouhani will not fulfill a key pledge he
made before winning office: to free opposition leaders held under
house arrest since a 2009 crackdown. The supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, has rejected calls for "national
reconciliation," effectively guaranteeing that opposition
leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi - leaders of the
"Green Movement" protests that followed the disputed 2009
presidential election - will remain under house arrest. It was the
latest setback to reformists who back the moderate Rouhani, who
signed the historic nuclear agreement that improved Iran's relations
with the West, but is facing criticism from conservatives as the
economy has failed to improve even as many international sanctions
were lifted.
No country is more important for Iran's regional
influence than Lebanon, where the Shiite militia Hezbollah plays an
outsize role. Now that President Donald Trump seeks to roll back this
Iranian sway, many Lebanese fear their country will end up paying the
price... Hezbollah is by far the most important of these Iranian
regional proxies and the shift in Washington came just as Hezbollah,
benefiting from regime victories in Syria, reached unprecedented
authority inside Lebanon. "Today, Hezbollah is acting as the
main decision maker in Lebanon," said parliament member Samy
Gemayel, president of the predominantly Christian Kataeb party which
belongs to the Sunni-led political grouping known as the March 14
alliance. "This is very dangerous. The Lebanese state as a whole
can be sanctioned if it is considered to be under the umbrella of
Hezbollah. This is what we fear." There are many ways the Trump
administration could squeeze Lebanon if it so desired-from targeting
its banks to curtailing funding for the national army and for some 15
million Syrian refugees living here. "Lebanon would be uniquely
vulnerable to a U.S.-Iran escalation. Its banking system is exposed
to Treasury actions that can be imposed quickly and painfully,"
said Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies.
Iran has held its first conference in six years
supporting Palestinian uprisings, a forum that it says drew hundreds
of delegates from 80 countries, reflecting the country's resurgent
clout on the world stage. The two-day Sixth International Conference
in Support of the Palestinian Intifada ended Wednesday in the Iranian
capital, Tehran, with Iran's president pledging more aid for
Palestinians fighting against Israel. Tehran has long provided
monetary and military assistance to Palestinian militants. Iranian
state media quoted President Hassan Rouhani as saying his people
"have paid a high cost for supporting the Palestinians and
opposing the Zionist regime of Israel's actions, but they will
continue their support with determination." State media said
Rouhani made the comments while meeting Palestinian National Council
chairman Salim al-Zanoun on the forum's sidelines. Speaking to
conference delegates, Rouhani also called Israel a "fake
regime" that should be replaced by a Palestinian state for
"Muslims, Christians and Jews."
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The head of the UN's atomic watchdog is confident the
US will not scupper Iran's nuclear deal, despite President Donald
Trump's swingeing criticism of the accord. Yukiya Amano,
director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the
Financial Times that the agreement, which Mr Trump this month
described as the "worst deal I've ever seen negotiated",
was proving more durable than expected. "As long as it is
implemented, this agreement is more robust than many people
think," Mr Amano said, referring to the deal, which the IAEA
monitors and verifies. "Finding [an]other solution would be
extremely difficult." He highlighted Iran's compliance with the
agreement's provisions and said that Republicans in Congress were
growing more aware of the benefits provided by the deal. "I
don't claim the verification system is perfect, but it is the best we
can expect under the circumstances," Mr Amano said, while making
clear it was not up to Washington alone to decide whether to keep or
ditch the deal. "This is not bilateral, this is not an agreement
among several [parties], but the whole international community."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
A Washington-based lawyer for a U.S. permanent
resident imprisoned in Iran has described him as a
"hostage." Jason Poblete said in a statement on Thursday
that Iranian allegations that Nizar Zakka confessed to authorities
are "completely false." A semi-official Iranian news agency
on Wednesday published remarks from a Revolutionary Guard commander
saying Zakka confessed to trying to "encourage decadence"
in Iranian society. Poblete demanded the immediate and unconditional
release of Zakka, a Lebanese computer expert whose organization
previously did contract work for the U.S. government , and all other
Westerners held by Iran.
BUSINESS RISK
ZTE Corp. is currently working with the U.S.
government to settle allegations that it secretly conducted business
with Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions, but the company
nevertheless has warned its investors that it will likely incur
severe penalties in the process. In a Friday filing required by the
Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China-based ZTE said it was still
cooperating with the various U.S. government agencies probing its
alleged dealings with Iran, but that penalties and fines are
expected. "The outcome of the settlement issues still remains
uncertain but will likely have a material impact on the financial
conditions and operating results of the company," ZTE said.
"The company will make announcements of material development of
the above matters as soon as practicable."
Iran is hard at work gaining a foothold in the global
energy market, and it's not letting U.S. President Donald Trump's
confrontational tone stop it from trying. Political rhetoric is
unlikely to turn into tangible impediments for Iran's s ambition to
join Russia and Norway in the ranks of major gas exporters, according
to Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia. The nation has about
$7 trillion worth of gas reserves sitting underground, based on
European benchmark prices, and its doors are open to those who will
help it cash in on the fortune. Zamaninia thinks those sorts of
figures mean the business case for Iranian energy is too tempting for
the world to pass up, even as its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and Trump exchange barbs... "There are concerns and the
international capital is scarce, but our projects and our environment
are so attractive that we don't think we will face a great deal of
difficulty," Zamaninia said in an interview last week at the CWC
Iran LNG & Gas Summit in Frankfurt. "We don't think that the
new administration in the U.S. will pose a big problem in this
department, in the oil and gas business." ... "Iran's got
just a huge amount of potential but I don't see anything major
happening for some time," said Christopher Haines, head of oil
and gas at BMI Research in London. "We need a lot more trust
between operators and the government and confidence in the political
environment."
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Swedish investment firm Serkland Invest AB agreed to
buy a stake in Iran's Sahar Dairy Co., which makes Danone and Le
Groupe Bel SA products in the country. Serkland, which invests in
consumer goods, will spend "tens of millions of euros" on
the minority holding in Sahar, and may secure further investment from
other European firms for the stake, founder Omid Gholamifar said in
an interview in Tehran on Sunday. "Consumer goods companies know
that Iran is the very last frontier," Gholamifar said. "The
investments you can make here, you can't make anywhere else in the
world."
Indian Register of Shipping (IRClass) has received
authorisation as a recognised organisation from Iran's maritime
administration - Ports and Maritime Organisation. Strengthening its
presence further in the Middle East, IRClass has also set up an
office in Tehran to offer its services to the Iranian maritime
sector. The agreement was signed on 5 February 2017 at a ceremony
held in Tehran. "The Middle East is a key focus market and we
see significant potential for growth. India and Iran share strong
historical ties both in terms of trade as well as culture," said
Suresh Sinha, md of IRClass. "The trade between two countries is
expanding rapidly. We are confident that this development will
further the cause of increasing trade and benefit the maritime
industry in both countries," said Sinha. IRClass has also been
engaged with Iranian Classification Society and had signed a MOU for
co-operation in January 2015.
The European Union's trade with Iran amounted to €13.7
billion in 2016, a 78 percent rise compared to 2015, based on the
latest figures released by the European Union's statistics agency
Eurostat. The figure was €7.68 billion in 2015, Tasnim news agency
reported. Iran's exports to the EU stood at €5.46 billion in 2016,
with 4.5-fold rise from €1.23 billion in the preceding year. The
noticeable increase is due to the EU's resumption of oil imports from
Iran... While the EU's imports from Iran rose noticeably in 2016, its
exports to the country increased just by 27 percent and reached €8.24
billion from €6.45 billion in 2015.
Holding of the 7th Iran Steel Market Conference (ISMC)
on February 14-15 in Tehran provided the impetus for reviewing
present opportunities and challenges in the country's steel industry
as well as analyzing venues for reaching envisaged goals in the 6th
five-year National Development Plan (NDP). The international event
was attended by over a thousand domestic and foreign activists in the
steel market or related industries. Key figures who made
presentations in the opening ceremony included Minister of
Industries, Mines and Trade Mohammadreza Nematzadeh, Deputy Minister
and Chairman of Board of Iranian Mines and Mining Industries
Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO) Mehdi Karbasian,
Former Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri,
Deputy Minister and Chairman of the Board of Islamic Republic of Iran
Railways (abbreviated RAI) Saeid Mohammadzadeh as well as Managing
Director of Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) Hamed Soltaninejad. Also,
Italy's Danieli CEO Gianpietro Bendetti, Managing Director of Spain's
Sarralle Equipos Siderogicos Javier Esquiroz, CEO of Germany's SMS
Group Burkhard Dahmen, Russia's INTECO Chairman and CEO Harald
Holzgruber as well as Market Analyst in Turkish Steel Exporters
Association Cihan Akdeniz were foreign guests who presented lectures
on the opening day of ISMC 2017.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Iran is increasingly using Syrian battlefields as a
proving ground for fresh military officers in training, according to
Iranian media reports and Syrian opposition figures. Tehran-based
Imam Hossein University, a school affiliated with The Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), said it recently deployed military leadership
students to fight in Syria as part of an educational program designed
for future officers, according to state-run media. Tehran says its
forces are in Syria to protect the Zeinab Shrine in Damascus, a
Shi'ite holy site. But since 2011, Iran has been a major backer of
the Syrian regime in its war with rebel groups across the country, at
first sending advisers, then forces from the IRGC expanding far
beyond the shrine area.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran's semi-official Fars news agency is reporting
that the son of late dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali
Montazeri has begun serving a six-year prison term. In November, a
clerical court sentenced Ahmad Montazeri to six years in prison for publishing
a tape recording of his father condemning the execution of thousands
of prisoners in 1988 at the end of the country's protracted war with
Iraq. A website close to his family confirmed Wednesday that Ahmad
Montazeri has been sent to prison after being summoned by the court.
The spiritual leader of Iran's Sunnis has written to
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to express concern over
"rumors" of a secret order for the speedy execution of
Sunni prisoners convicted of drug trafficking. Molavi Abdolhamid, the
Friday Prayers leader of the southeastern city of Zahedan in the
restive Sistan-Baluchistan Province, calls in his letter to Khamenei
for "wise and fatherly" intervention into the issue.
Abdolhamid, who's been outspoken about the rights of Sunnis and the
discrimination they face in Iran, appears to be referring to a recent
report by a news site close to the country's reformist politicians
that is making the rounds on social media. The report issued earlier
this week by Amadnews.com claims that the head of Iran's hard-line
judiciary has ordered Sunni prisoners convicted of drug smuggling to
be executed as soon as possible so they won't be subject to a
parliament bill that proposes the elimination of the death penalty for
prisoners convicted of drug-related offenses.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
After a four-year hiatus, Iran recently resumed
destructive cyber attacks against Saudi Arabia in what U.S. officials
say is part of a long-term strategy by Tehran to take over the
oil-rich kingdom and regional U.S. ally Late last month, the Saudi
government warned in a notice to telecommunications companies that an
Iranian-origin malicious software called Shamoon had resurfaced in
cyber attacks against some 15 Saudi organizations, including
government networks. The Shamoon malware was last detected in the
2012 cyber attack against the major Saudi state oil producer Aramco.
That cyber attack damaged or destroyed some 30,000 computers and was
considered one of the more destructive state-linked cyber attacks to
date... A cyber security expert familiar with details of the latest
Saudi cyber attack who spoke on condition of anonymity said the
November incident was "Iranian-directed" and linked to two
hacker groups in Iran known as "Cadelle and Chafer" in
cyber security circles. The new Shamoon 2 "is meant to do
damage," the expert said, noting that the recent cyber attack
was not as effective as the earlier one in 2012.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
The deteriorating relations between Hezbollah and
Syrian regime fighters are no longer secret. Lebanese social media
platforms affiliated with Shiite supporters of Hezbollah are replete
with mockery of the Syrian army's incompetence, corruption,
clumsiness, cowardice, and lack of resources. Bashar al-Assad's
forces are often blamed for causing Hezbollah losses or hampering
operations against the rebels. While this trend has seemingly
inflated egos among the group's core supporters back home, it also
suggests that political and military alliances are more complicated
on the ground in Syria Relations between Hezbollah fighters and their
commanders in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are
similarly complicated, but much more problematic to discuss publicly.
Hezbollah remains Iran's most skilled militia, but anecdotal accounts
indicate that it may no longer enjoy its privileged status with
Tehran, at least in terms of how its forces are treated on the
battlefield. The war in Syria has uncovered Iran's true expansionist
intentions, along with a Persian arrogance toward Arab Shiites that
Hezbollah fighters are not used to. To get a better sense of how the
group's members perceive these dynamics, this article draws on author
interviews with a large number of Hezbollah fighters and commanders.
Although there is no way to tell how representative their views are,
the high level of agreement they express on certain issues is
telling. In particular, they tend to blame IRGC-Qods Force commander
Qasem Soleimani for the deteriorating relations.
Trump should start pushing back on Iran's ambitions in
the Middle East, moving away from Obama's narrow approach--seeing the
latter through an arms-control lens--and not shy away from presenting
a credible threat to use force against Iran for its propping up
dictators such as Bashar al-Assad and supporting terrorist
organizations such as Hezbollah. Israel and others in the region may
publicly cheer you, President Trump, if you do walk away from the
JCPOA, but they would rather have you wriggle out from the Iranians
more concessions, than create a situation where the Iranians were
made free of obligations which they have accepted. While Iran may
enjoy the situation of a wedge driven between the U.S. and the other
P5+1 negotiators, they will have to face the challenge created by the
U.S., which convinced the others that their serious omissions in the
agreement need to be rectified.U.S allies in the Middle East have
been looking to an assertive, not destructive, U.S. policy. The other
five in the P5+1 who negotiated with Iran may, albeit reluctantly,
agree to approach Iran on the issues which the JCPOA left out, like
missiles. However, they will leave the U.S. alone if the latter walks
out of it. Key issues and decisions which were handled feebly by the
outgoing administration, call for reassessment and reassertion by the
U.S combination of U.S power projection, of a U.S toughened-up
diplomacy and willingness to rethink long-held truths. There is lot
to be said--for example, for a grand bargain between the U.S. and
Russia. It can include Russia's conduct in Europe, the political
future of Syria and a revamped JCPOA. If all fail, there is always
the possibility of walking away. But not yet.
The first front on which Iran challenges the new American
administration is that of the nuclear agreement. In response to
Trump's call during the campaign to reopen the July 2015 agreement
between Iran and the P5+1, Iran declared that it is unwilling to do
so. Recently, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran even stated that
it intends to input enriched material into advanced centrifuges
(IR-8), in order to advance the research and development program of
centrifuges that are more efficient than those currently used in
Iran. The Iranian goals are to develop its technological ability to
enrich uranium, to quickly amass fissile material, to reduce the size
of installations required for future industrialized enrichment, and
to make it easier to hide enrichment facilities should it choose to
do so. This is not a blatant violation of the nuclear agreement, but
rather "gray area" activity that depends on one's
interpretation of the agreement. Iran is attempting to force its
interpretation, which naturally is more permissive than the American
interpretation, and is testing American resolve to enforce the
agreement in accordance with its own interpretation. The second front
pitting the Trump administration against Tehran appeared in the
headlines this month thanks to a failed Iranian test of a North
Korean-model ballistic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead
some 4000 kilometers. Although the United States and Germany declared
that the test launch violated UN Security Council resolution 2231,
this resolution does not unequivocally prohibit Iran from performing such
a test, but "calls" for it not to carry out tests of
ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weaponry. Just as with
the nuclear issue, Iran is not violating the resolution, but
challenging it in practice and testing American willingness to respond.
Furthermore, it has been reported that Iran tested a cruise missile
capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. This action also does not
violate the Security Council resolution, which does not relate to
cruise missiles, but only ballistic missile tests. The third front
where Washington faces Tehran is in the non-nuclear realm. Iran works
to expand its regional power against its main enemies-Israel and
Saudi Arabia-by establishing militias and military proxies, as well
as by providing Iranian weaponry and support to terror organizations.
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