Thursday, May 10, 2018

Eye on Iran: Israel and Iran Trade Fire in Most Direct Confrontation Yet



   EYE ON IRAN
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In the most direct confrontation between Israel and Iran to date, the two regional enemies exchanged fire for hours during a volatile night in the Golan Heights.


Iran's supreme leader on Wednesday hinted that his country might step up its nuclear program, signaling a possible escalation in an already volatile relationship with Washington after President Trump announced he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal.


President Donald Trump is preparing to impose new sanctions on Iran, perhaps as early as next week, to ensure it does not develop nuclear weapons, the White House said on Wednesday, a day after Trump announced the United States was withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

UANI IN THE NEWS


I think [U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal] is overdue. I think it was a bold step and it was needed. Any sober, realistic reading of the agreement would see that it was not in the national security interests of the U.S., that it failed in its primary and secondary objectives-mainly to verify the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and secondarily to increase the moderation, if you can call it that, of the Iranian regime.


I would say the deal had certain advantages. However, the deal was perceived by its opponents to have multiple constraints, which were exploited by Iran to enable it to conduct an unprecedented expansion inside the region and an expansion of its missile program.

UANI Senior Adviser Norman Roule on the Iran Nuclear Deal | Bloomberg Markets: Americas

Supporters of the Iran deal will say that [the president's withdrawal from it] sends a message to North Korea that perhaps the U.S. cannot be relied upon, and the administration will have to work through that. At the same time it tells the North Koreans that we are not going seek a deal similar to the Iran deal, which as opponents state, all the benefits were provided upfront, where the deal was allowed to be piecemeal, where the deal allowed our adversary to retain a large portion of its nuclear enterprise in what was perceived as an unconstrained fashion.


The President, I believe, is concerned, and rightfully so, that there has been little done to push back against Iran's aggressive posture in the region, its development of new surrogates, its proliferation of advanced missile technology against Saudi Arabia and Israel, and of course its development of an unreasonably large ballistic-missile program which is a threat to the entire region. 
  
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Immediately on returning from North Korea on Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will embark on talks with allies in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to try to persuade them to press Iran to curb its nuclear and missile programs, U.S. officials said.


Defense Secretary Jim Mattis held out hope that renewed efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear program in consultation with European nations could still work, a day after President Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact, upsetting some of the Pentagon's most important allies abroad.


European countries are powerless to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran after the United States pulled out, the deputy head of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Thursday.  


The Iran nuclear deal will not "fall apart" despite the United States withdrawing from the landmark accord, the European Union's representative to China said Wednesday. 


President Donald Trump could soon face the first public test of his nuclear deal gambit as Iran weighs a formal complaint against the United States for violating the agreement. 


Here is a look at Iran's options after President Donald Trump announced he will pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear agreement.


National Security Adviser John Bolton said in an "Ingraham Angle" exclusive that the Iran nuclear deal has been "flawed from the beginning"... "It's in our security interest to get out of this flawed deal," he said, adding that now, there is a better ability "stop this dangerous [Iranian] regime."


French President Emmanuel Macron says U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to exit the nuclear deal with Iran was "a mistake." 


Donald Trump pulling America out of the Iran nuclear deal is the biggest thing he's yet done on the international stage, with the greatest consequences. I understand entirely why people might feel nervous: Iran's warning that it is ready to start nuclear enrichment was frightening. But the President is, on balance, correct. Either the world deals with Iran now, or it deals with a nuclear Iran in the future.


Finally: A US president is pushing back on Iran's dangerous and growing power. President Trump's decision Tuesday to withdraw from Team Obama's badly flawed Iran deal and reimpose sanctions sends a clear message to the mullahs: The jig's up.


Donald Trump pulling America out of the Iran nuclear deal is the biggest thing he's yet done on the international stage, with the greatest consequences. I understand entirely why people might feel nervous: Iran's warning that it is ready to start nuclear enrichment was frightening. But the President is, on balance, correct. Either the world deals with Iran now, or it deals with a nuclear Iran in the future.


The president is right to recoil from [the Iran deal's shortcomings]. The challenge, as always, is to craft something better. Presumably, the Europeans and Iran will attempt to preserve the agreement. Much will depend on whether Trump is willing to squeeze the Europeans with secondary sanctions that make them choose between us and the Iranians. And it makes no sense to rip up the deal if Trump isn't willing to back a comprehensive anti-Iran strategy that means staying engaged in Syria and Iraq.

SANCTIONS & OTHER BUSINESS RISKS


President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has left foreign firms with a choice: Stop doing business in Iran or run the risk of U.S. sanctions. Multinational companies have billions of dollars tied up in Iran. In 2016, the European Union exported more than €8.2 billion ($9.7 billion) worth of goods to Iran, while importing almost €5.5 billion ($6.5 billion) from there, according to the European Commission.


Major companies like Boeing could see billions of dollars in commercial deals canceled because of the U.S. decision to reinstall sanctions on Iran, though the ultimate impact remains unclear due to the possibility of renegotiations and exemptions, experts say.


Washington's decision to reinstate Iranian sanctions is likely to slowly cut off a chunk of the world's crude supply-a shift that could redraw global supply lines and require Iran's big customers to find alternative sources.


Billions of dollars of deals signed by international companies with Iran are under threat after the US president, Donald Trump, announced he was pulling out of a "rotten" nuclear deal with Tehran.


The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal means Boeing's licenses to sell billions of dollars in commercial jetliners to Iran will be revoked [as will those of its competitor Airbus], Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday.


European governments vowed on Wednesday to try to shield their improved economic ties with Iran from the impact of renewed U.S. sanctions, but business leaders struck a more pessimistic note.


President Donald Trump is pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal and bringing back harsh economic sanctions. But it's how European governments and companies respond that may matter most. Germany, France and the United Kingdom have vowed to uphold the agreement, setting up a showdown with the Trump administration over trade with Iran.


U.S. President Donald Trump's new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, warned German companies to halt activities in Iran after the U.S. leader said Washington was pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and would reimpose sanctions.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


A coalition commander expressed confidence Tuesday that U.S. and partnered forces in the Mideast are prepared for any provocations stemming from President Donald Trump's scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal. The estimated 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria and 5,000 in Iraq have already been bolstered by the arrival in the eastern Mediterranean of the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, which began airstrikes May 3 against Islamic State targets in Syria.


U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis moved to allay concerns on Wednesday that the United States had alienated itself from close allies with its decision to withdraw from an international nuclear deal with Iran.

Iran hopes to set up a naval base on the Mediterranean Sea for its warships and submarines that would pose a "palpable threat" to everyone, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday in Nicosia.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS


U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that, after he announced the United States would be withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing new sanctions, Iran would either negotiate or "something will happen." It was not immediately clear what actions he was suggesting would take place.

CONGRESS & IRAN


Congressional leaders are split, but not neatly along party lines, over President Donald Trump's decision Tuesday to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Some welcomed the pullout, believing the 2015 accord was unsound, but others worried the U.S. was now in the position of reneging on an international commitment and without a backup plan.


U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner said Tuesday that he supported President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, and he suggested the U.S. should work with its allies to seek new economic sanctions against Tehran.

SYRIA, ISRAEL & IRAN


Syria said Tuesday that Israel carried out an attack on a military base south of Damascus, which was used by Iranian forces. According to reports, Israeli fighter jets entered Syrian airspace and struck Iranian missiles aimed at Israel. The Israeli military said it identified what it said was unusual movements of Iranian forces in Syria, and it believed those forces were preparing for an imminent retaliation against Israel.


Syrian opposition leaders on a visit to London on Wednesday welcomed President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. 

HUMAN RIGHTS


A day after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, several families of American prisoners held in the Islamic Republic urged the White House to start humanitarian talks with Tehran to win their release.


Relatives of Americans imprisoned in Iran implored the Trump administration on Wednesday not to forget their loved ones, whose fates may have just become murkier now that the United States has quit the nuclear accord.

NORTH KOREA & IRAN


President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal injects a new variable ahead of his coming talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The move could make it harder to convince the North Korean regime that the U.S. is reliable in standing by deals it makes. But it also signals a tougher line that could give Mr. Trump more leverage with a counterpart that Washington regards as having a history of backtracking on nuclear deals.

CHINA & IRAN


President Donald Trump put Iran back in the penalty box on Tuesday - but the impact on the oil market could be determined by how China responds. China, a voracious consumer of oil, holds great sway because it's Iran's biggest customer.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


Saudi Arabia is monitoring the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on oil supplies and is ready to offset any shortage but it will not act alone to fill the gap, an OPEC source familiar with the kingdom's oil thinking said.


Gulf Arab countries were on Wednesday bracing for the economic and security fallout after President Donald Trump announced the United States was exiting the Iran nuclear deal. Three countries led by Saudi Arabia immediately backed Trump while Qatar reacted cautiously. Oman and Kuwait also gave circumspect positions.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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