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TOP STORIES
About one year after the United States decided to
leave the Iran nuclear deal, the State Department is set to announce
that all countries will have to completely end their imports of
Iranian oil or be subject to U.S. sanctions. This is an escalation of
the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign,
which seeks to force Tehran to end its illicit behavior around the
world.
Iran's supreme leader has replaced the top commander of
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, state media reported Sunday,
two weeks after the Trump administration designated the elite force
of the Iranian military as a foreign terrorist organization. The
supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, did not specify why he was
removing the Revolutionary Guards commander, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali
Jafari, who had held the post since 2007.
The United States has largely carved out exceptions so
that foreign governments, firms and NGOs do not automatically face
U.S. sanctions for dealing with Iran's Revolutionary Guards after the
group's designation by Washington as a foreign terrorist group, according
to three current and three former U.S. officials. The
exemptions, granted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and described
by a State Department spokesman in response to questions from
Reuters, mean officials from countries such as Iraq who may have
dealings with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC,
would not necessarily be denied U.S. visas.
UANI IN THE NEWS
The IRGC proscription follows US Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo's trip to Beirut in March, in which he presented a
stark warning to Lebanon. It essentially read as a 'them or us'
choice between US support for the country, or allowing Hezbollah to
grow. Nasrallah's response to the US designation of the IRGC was to
be expected, according to analysts. "The only reason the IRGC
designation may in any way affect Lebanon is because of Hezbollah's
presence - this isn't an attack on Lebanon itself," said David
Daoud, a research analyst on Hezbollah and Lebanon at United Against
Nuclear Iran, a Washington DC-based advocacy group.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
The Trump administration is poised to end a program that
has allowed five large nations, including China and India, to buy
Iranian oil despite American sanctions, two senior American officials
said on Sunday, a decision that is intended to squeeze Tehran's
government but could lead to higher oil and gasoline prices. The move
to choke off all exports of Iranian oil is part of an
increasingly aggressive pressure campaign by the Trump
administration to starve Iran of revenue with the goals of forcing
political change among its ruling clerics and getting it to rein in
its military actions across the Middle East.
The United States is expected to announce on Monday that
buyers of Iranian oil need to end imports soon or face sanctions, a
source familiar with the situation told Reuters, triggering a 3
percent jump in crude prices to their highest for 2019 so far. Officials
in Asia opposed the expected move, pointing to tight market
conditions and high fuel prices that were harming industry. The
source confirmed a report by the Washington Post that the
administration will terminate the sanctions waivers it granted to some
importers of Iranian oil late last year.
Oil topped $74 a barrel on Monday, the highest since
November, with the United States set to announce a further clampdown
on Iranian oil exports, tightening global supplies. The United
States is expected to say later on Monday that buyers of Iranian oil
need to end imports soon or face sanctions, a source familiar with
the situation said, confirming an earlier Washington Post
report. "This does bring a lot more uncertainty in terms
of global supplies," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix.
"It is a bullish surprise for the market."
China consistently opposes unilateral U.S. sanctions
against Iran, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday amid
reports that Washington is expected to announce that buyers of
Iranian oil must halt imports soon or face sanctions. Ministry
spokesman Geng Shuang, speaking at a daily news briefing, said
China's bilateral cooperation with Iran was in accordance with the
law.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Tehran has denied it took part in negotiations over
possible limitations on its missile program, prior to the U.S.
withdrawal in May 2018 from the Iran nuclear agreement . Earlier, the
French ambassador to the U.S., Gerard Araud, had asserted that before
Washington's withdrawal, there were talks underway to reach an
agreement over Tehran's missile program, and adding it as a
supplement to the JCPOA, or the nuclear agreement.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
The United States has decided to designate the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps a foreign terrorist organization
under section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This
is a major step toward effectively countering Tehran's systemic use
of terrorism as a tool of statecraft. It is also welcome news for the
Iranian people, whose efforts over 40 years to bring about change
have been violently suppressed at every turn by the Guard.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Sadaf Khadem had been interested in sports as a child in
Iran in the 2000s. She began by playing basketball and then in
her teenage years, added a punching bag to the makeshift
gym in her family's garage and finally convinced her parents to
let her join a boxing club. Earlier this month, the 24-year-old
Khadem won the first ever victory by an Iranian female boxer at the
international level.
The Islamic Republic of Iran's center in Vienna, Austria
announced in a lethal homophobic video YouTube that homosexuality
spells the end of humanity. The Center of Islamic Culture Imam Ali's
video targets children and is part of a series that launches attacks
on liberal, western values and societies. The Austrian paper Kurier
reported the video was deleted on Friday after being online for three
months.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Two weeks since the storms started, relentless rain and
flooding throughout Iran has left some 2 million people facing a
humanitarian crisis. The deluge has swamped large swaths of the
country, from the mountains in the north down to the Persian gulf in
the south. Twenty-five out of 31 of Iran's provinces have been
affected. Officials say say 76 people have been killed so far, with
some 150,000 homes partially or completely destroyed. Bridges across
the country and miles upon miles of road have been left unusable.
Some 300,000 flood-hit Iranians are to be housed in
flood shelters in Iran's Khuzestan Province following the declaration
of a state of emergency in the three cities of Abadan, Khorramshahr
and Shadegan, local officials have announced on Saturday April 20.
The Iranian Red Crescent Society says its 2800 relief workers have
offered relief aid to some 600,000 individuals and airlifted at least
8,340 to safer areas during the past month.
Iran's latest monthly inflation rate has hit 51.4
percent, according to the Iranian Statistical Center (ISC). The first
month of the Iranian year (March 21-April 20) showed a more than 50
percent rise in prices compared to the same month last year. ISC also
reported that the inflation rate in the past 12 months reached 30.6
percent. This is lower than the International Monetary Fund's
estimate of inflation in Iran in 2018, at 31.2 percent. For 2019, IMF
has predicted inflation at 37.2 percent.
Iran's leaders have been underplaying the country's
economic crisis, despite many Iranian people continuing to suffer
financially. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last month highlighted his
optimism in a pre-recorded video broadcast on Iran's state
TV. He said: "In the face of severe, and according to them
unprecedented, sanctions from America and Europe, the Iranian people
showed a strong and powerful reaction both in the field of politics
and the economy."
In about two weeks, from mid-March to the beginning of
April, some 70 percent of the annual precipitation fell in Iran.
About 1,900 cities and villages - some estimates cite 4,500
communities in about 21 districts - were flooded with water and mud.
More than 70 people were killed and about two million are in need of
food and medicines. Some 150,000 housing units were destroyed or
damaged, dozens of bridges collapsed or were rendered unsafe and some
12,000 kilometers of roads, about one third of Iran's paved roads,
have been damaged or destroyed. According to a preliminary assessment
the damage is $2.2 billion.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
France has warned Lebanon that Israel will not tolerate
the existence of an Iranian-backed manufacturing facility for
precision-guided missiles located inside the country, the
London-based Arabic-language Al-Hayat newspaper reported on Saturday.
Diplomatic sources from within the Arab world told the newspaper
details of the facility were conveyed to France from the US and
originated with Israel.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
A summit organized by Iraq brought together regional
rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran on Saturday as part of a broader effort
by Iraqi leaders to fashion the country's image as a friend among
neighbors. Scarred by more than three decades of war, Iraq is recasting
itself as a mediator among neighbors who are often at odds over
weighty issues, including the civil war in Syria and U.S. sanctions
against Iran. The summit, hosted by Parliament Speaker Mohamed
al-Halbousi, brought together top lawmakers of Iraq's six neighbors:
Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, and Kuwait.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned top
military commanders in a private meeting this week that there will be
a war with Israel this summer and that he may not be around to
support them, according to Elijah J. Magnier, a writer for the
Kuwaiti Al Rai news. "I may not remain among you for very long;
it is possible that the entire first level of leadership could be
killed, including myself," Nasrallah reportedly told the
commanders. "Measures and procedures have already been taken to
be ready even if this extreme case happens."
Houthi rebels were stopping relief convoys from reaching
dozens of civilians, some of whom were being used as human shields in
the centre of the Al Durayhimi district, eastern Hodeidah. The
Iran-backed rebels, who control a small neighbourhood in Al
Durayhimi, prevented an Emirates Red Crescent relief convoy from
providing aid to 50 civilians in the district on Saturday, which was
90 per cent liberated by pro-government forces in August 2018.
"We called on the Houthis who still hold that neighbourhood,
urging them to leave peacefully or allow the detained civilians to
reach the relief convoy, which stopped about one kilometre
away," Col Wathah Al Dubaish, spokesman for the joint forces in
Hodeidah, told The National. "But they shot at us and at some of
the women."
The Yemeni army has accused Houthi militias of smuggling
dozens of African fighters into the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah to
fight alongside the insurgents. Yemeni National Army spokesman
Brigadier General Abdo Abdullah Majali told Asharq Al-Awsat that the
Houthis have forced a large number of migrants coming from the Horn
of Africa region to enroll in their camps. The insurgents later
deployed them on several fronts, he said. Majali urged the
international community to take action to stop the militias from
recruiting African migrants and children.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
A group of militants crossed the border from neighboring
Iran earlier this week and carried out a deadly attack against
Pakistan armed forces in southwestern Baluchistan province, killing
14, the Foreign Ministry said Saturday. The ministry said in a letter
to the Iranian government that the assailants were from a newly
formed Baluch separatist group, Raji Aajoi Sangar, and that they were
based in Iran's adjacent Baluchistan province.
It urged Iran to act against the attackers who had fled
back across the border. Groups operating within Pakistan's and Iran's
Baluchistan provinces, which share a long border, seek independence
from both countries. The ministry said the "killing of 14
innocent Pakistanis by terrorist groups based in Iran is a very
serious incident that Pakistan protests strongly."
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan arrived in Iran on
Sunday to discuss security and regional issues, Iranian state TV
reported, a day after Islamabad urged Tehran to act against militants
behind killings in Pakistan's Baluchistan province. A new
umbrella group representing various insurgent groups operating in
Baluchistan claimed responsibility for an attack on Thursday when 14
passengers were killed after being kidnapped from buses in the
province, which borders Iran.
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