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TOP STORIES
Iran's supreme leader issued a veiled threat in the same
speech in which he stated that "no one is seeking war,"
saying it wouldn't be difficult for the Islamic Republic to enrich
uranium to weapons-grade levels amid rising tensions with the U.S.,
state media reported Wednesday. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad,
meanwhile, ordered all non-essential, non-emergency government staff
on Wednesday to leave Iraq immediately amid escalating tensions with
Iran. Washington did not publicly provide any evidence to back up
claims of an increased threat from Tehran.
The U.S. ordered all its nonemergency staff to leave
Iraq immediately, amid heightened tensions with Iran over
recent attacks against oil tankers and facilities in the Persian Gulf
region. The decision comes amid fears that Iran-allied militia
in Iraq could target U.S. citizens and soldiers in the country. Normal
visa services will be temporarily suspended both at the U.S. Embassy
in Baghdad and the U.S. Consulate in Erbil, according to a brief
statement posted on the website of the U.S. Embassy in Iraq.
Yemen's Houthi rebels carried out multiple drone attacks
on Saudi oil facilities on Tuesday, a day after Saudi Arabia said two
of its oil tankers had been damaged in an act of sabotage, ratcheting
up tensions in the region. A Houthi spokesman, Mohammed Abdul Salam,
claimed responsibility for the drone strikes on Twitter, saying that
they were a response to Saudi "aggression" and
"genocide" in Yemen.
UANI IN THE NEWS
On May 10, United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) Chairman
Senator Joseph I. Lieberman and CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace
co-authored an op-ed on FoxNews.com applauding the Trump
Administration's "maximum pressure" policy against Iran,
including designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as
a Foreign Terrorist Organization and eliminating sanctions waivers on
the purchase of Iranian oil. But as they wrote, more can be done, and
that means "plugging the sanctions gaps on the other critical
pillar of Iran's energy export-dependent economy:
petrochemicals."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran is officially ending one of its key
commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal, local media
reported Wednesday, citing a senior official at the country's
Atomic Energy Agency. A "program has been launched" to stop
some of Iran's obligations on orders from the country's Supreme
National Security Council, the Iranian Students' News Agency
reported. The official, who was not named, highlighted suspension of
compliance with the nuclear deal's cap on enriched uranium and heavy
water production.
European countries were key to negotiating the landmark
2015 international accord that restricted Iran's nuclear program in
return for relief from sanctions that had strangled its economy.
After U.S. President Donald Trump, an outspoken critic of the deal
brokered by his predecessor, pulled the U.S. out in May 2018,
European governments vowed to keep the agreement viable. But that's
proved difficult in the face of reinstated U.S. sanctions that are
again squeezing the Persian Gulf nation.
In March 2007, agents from Israel's intelligence agency,
Mossad, broke into the Vienna suite of the director of
Syria's atomic energy agency and secretly downloaded the contents of
his computer. They discovered that Syria was building a nuclear
reactor with the assistance of the North Korean regime in a region
known as Deir al-Zour near the Euphrates River.
United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that
all kinds of bad things happened during the nuclear deal and that it
increased terrorism and led to a radical increase in malign behavior
from the Iranians. In an interview to CNBC, Pompeo said: "there
were more missile launches and a radical increase in malign behavior
from Iranians toward entities that range from the Houthis to
Hezbollah," Pompeo said.
The Iranian ambassador to the UK has warned Europe it
has 60 days to ease Iranian oil sales or else see the end of the
nuclear deal as tensions rise with the US. Hamid Baeidinejad claimed
it was obvious for all to see that the US national security adviser,
John Bolton, was bent on a military confrontation with Iran, and
the only question was whether Washington would be caught in his trap.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Oil production from Iran dropped in April as the country
remained under U.S. sanctions. In its closely watched monthly
oil market report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries said Iranian supply fell 164,000 barrels a day in April to
2.55 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabian supply also falling by
45,000 barrels a day. The drop in supply was mitigated by rising
output from Nigeria and Iraq, meaning OPEC crude oil production fell
by 3,000 barrels a day to 30.031 million barrels, according to
secondary sources.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with his Indian
counterpart in New Delhi, days after India decided to follow U.S.
restrictions on buying Iranian oil. India's foreign ministry said
Zarif held discussions with Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma
Swaraj on issues of mutual interest, including the evolving situation
in Afghanistan. It didn't give any details. Iran is the third-largest
oil supplier for India after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India bought 23.6
million tons of Iranian oil in the financial year ending in March
2019.
The world will require very little extra oil from OPEC
this year as booming U.S. output will offset falling exports from
Iran and Venezuela, the International Energy Agency said on
Wednesday. The IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of
industrial nations, said Washington's decision to end sanctions
waivers that had allowed some importers to continue to buying Iranian
crude added to the "confusing supply outlook."
South Korea's Iranian oil imports rose 17% in April from
a year earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday, but shipments are
set to end from May as waivers on U.S. sanctions on Tehran expired at
the start of this month. South Korea in April imported 1.45
million tonnes of crude oil from Iran, or 353,223 barrels per day
(bpd), compared to 1.24 million tonnes a year earlier, according to
customs data.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Students at Tehran University demonstrated on
Monday against the Iranian institution's policy of coercing
women to wear hijabs. The headscarf - or hijab - is
required in public for all women in Iran. Those who violate the rules
are usually sentenced to two months in prison or less and fined
around $25. The Center for Human Rights in Iran, or CHR, said on its
website that the catalyst for the protest was the university's
deployment of "female agents" on campus to enforce the
"Hijab and Chastity Program."
Human Rights Watch (HRW) has urged the Iranian
authorities to immediately release at least eight labor activists and
journalists who have remained in detention since their arrest during
a May Day demonstration in central Tehran. The New York-based
watchdog made the call on May 15, saying in a statementthat the
authorities should allow labor activists to exercise their rights to
peaceful assembly and raise their demands, instead of arresting them.
A prominent Iranian physicist and human rights
activists, Nargess Mohammadi, who is a political prisoner, has been
taken from prison to hospital to undergo surgery. Ms. Mohammadi's
husband, Taqi Rahmani twitted on Tuesday, May 14, "Lung
specialists and gynecologists had suggested a year ago that her wife
must immediately undergo surgery for hysterectomy." Taqi
Rahmani, who lives in exile in Paris, has affirmed that his
47-year-old wife, was taken to a hospital escorted by security
agents.
The British Council has said it believes one of its
Iranian employees, Aras Amiri, has been sentenced to 10 years in
prison in Iran for spying. Sir Ciarán Devane, chief executive of the
UK cultural organisation, said he was dismayed by the reported
sentence and was "profoundly concerned for Aras' safety and
wellbeing". "We firmly refute the accusation levied against
her," he added.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran vigorously denied a U.S. claim that it was behind
attacks on four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf that set the Middle
East on edge, as the Trump administration confronted mounting
skepticism from allies abroad and Democrats at home. Iran
accused officials in the Trump administration of trying to pull it
into a war with the U.S. and its regional allies. Democratic
political leaders and presidential candidates began speaking out,
charging that the Trump administration's path risked an unintended
and unnecessary armed conflict with Iran.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said the United
States does not seek a war with Iran, amid rapidly growing tensions
between the two countries. Speaking in Russia, Mr Pompeo said the US
was looking for Iran to behave like a "normal country" but
would respond if its interests were attacked. Meanwhile, Iran's
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also said there will be no
war with the US. Last week, the US deployed warships and warplanes to
the Gulf.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on
Tuesday Tehran does not seek war with the United States despite
mounting tensions between the two arch-enemies over Iranian nuclear capabilities
and its missile program. In comments to senior officials carried
by state television, Khamenei also reiterated that the Islamic
Republic would not negotiate with the United States on another
nuclear deal. "There won't be any war. The Iranian nation has
chosen the path of resistance," Khamenei was cited as saying by
the state media.
International worries that the Trump administration is
sliding toward war with Iran flared into the open Tuesday amid
skepticism about its claims that the Islamic Republic poses a growing
threat to the U.S. and its allies in the Persian Gulf and
beyond . The U.S. military rebutted doubts expressed by a
British general about such a threat. President Donald Trump denied a
report that the administration has updated plans to send more than
100,000 troops to counter Iran if necessary. But Trump then stirred
the controversy further by saying: "Would I do that?
Absolutely."
Iran's foreign minister said on Tuesday that
"extremist individuals" in the U.S. government were
pursuing dangerous policies, amid a war of words with Washington over
sanctions. Mohammad Javad Zarif was in New Delhi for talks with
Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj after New Delhi stopped purchases of
Iranian oil this month in the wake of renewed U.S.
sanctions. Tensions have risen again after Saudi Arabia said
armed drones had struck two oil pumping stations in the kingdom on
Tuesday in what it called a "cowardly" act of terrorism two
days after Saudi oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the
United Arab Emirates.
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Tuesday he
was getting indications from talks with both the United States and
Iran that "things will end well" despite the current
ramping up of rhetoric from both sides. Speaking to journalists at a
news conference, Abdul Mahdi said Baghdad was communicating regularly
with Tehran and Washington, its two main allies who are themselves
enemies, and was trying to reduce tensions.
The U.S. military on Tuesday reaffirmed its concerns
about possible imminent threats from Iranian-backed forces to its
troops in Iraq, who were now at a high level of alert. Earlier
in the day, a senior British commander in the U.S.-led coalition fighting
Islamic State remnants in Iraq and Syria said there had been no
increase in the threat from Iran-backed militia. British Major
General Chris Ghika appeared to contradict increasingly heated
warnings from Washington, where officials say they see a growing
threat from Iran.
Don't assume a looming war based on the New York
Times' report on military briefings to the White House on
Iran. Those briefings almost certainly represent standing
contingency plans. Individually known as an operation plan or OPLAN,
these plans are developed for potential security issues around the
world. Refined as needed or directed, each OPLAN involves Pentagon
war-planners and their area combatant command equivalents.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a prominent foreign
policy hawk, voiced confidence in a new interview that the U.S. could
win a war with Iran, saying it would take "two strikes."
"Yes, two strikes," he told Margaret Hoover of
"Firing Line" when asked if the U.S. could win a war
against Iran. "The first strike and the last strike." Cotton said that
he would not advocate for a war with Iran but warned there would be a
"furious response" to any provocation against U.S.
interests in the region.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani has declared the Islamic
Republic is "too great to be intimidated by anyone" in a
late night meeting with clerics. "God willing we will pass this
difficult period with glory and our heads held high, and defeat the
enemy," Rouhani said late Monday as he met Sunni clerics to mark
the holy Muslim month of Ramadan, the official government website
dolat.ir said.
Sen. Bernie Sanders issued a sudden live video saying
that war with Iran would be "many times worse than the Iraq
War," in response to reporting by The New York
Times saying that the Trump administration is reviewing a plan
to send up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East. The idea was
reportedly spearheaded by John Bolton, the president's national
security adviser, who served in the George W. Bush administration at
the height of the conflict in Iraq.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
For decades, a controversial law has denied citizenship
and equal rights to Iranian children born to foreign
fathers. The discriminatory legislation has affected thousands
of children both inside and outside Iran -- but none more than those
fathered by Afghan refugees and migrants living in Iran. But after a
lengthy effort the country has taken a major step toward overturning
the policy, under which only Iranian men can pass their nationality
to spouses or children.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday
reiterated his support for US President Donald Trump's stance against
Iranian "aggression", as tensions mount between Washington
and Tehran. "Israel and all the countries of the region and all
the countries who seek peace in the world should stand together with
the United States against Iranian aggression," Netanyahu said at
a ceremony to mark one year since the opening of the United States
embassy in Jerusalem.
Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed Shiite forces will
join the battle if Iran were to be attacked by the U.S. or Israel
over its nuclear program, political analysts said Tuesday.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
Saudi Arabia said armed drones struck two oil pumping
stations in the kingdom on Tuesday in what it called a
"cowardly" act of terrorism two days after Saudi oil
tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the United Arab
Emirates. The attacks took place against a backdrop of
U.S.-Iranian tension following Washington's decision this month to
try to cut Iran's oil exports to zero and to beef up its military
presence in the Gulf in response to what it said were Iranian
threats.
U.S. national security agencies now believe proxies sympathetic
to or working for Iran may have attacked four tankers off the United
Arab Emirates rather than Iranian forces themselves, a U.S. official
familiar with the latest U.S. assessments said on Tuesday. The
official said possible perpetrators might include Houthi rebels in
Yemen and Iran-backed Shi'ite militias based in Iraq but said
Washington did not have hard evidence on who sabotaged the four
vessels, including two Saudi tankers, off Fujairah emirate on Sunday.
IRAQ & IRAN
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's surprise visit to
Baghdad this month came after U.S. intelligence showed Iran-backed
Shi'ite militias positioning rockets near bases housing U.S. forces,
according to two Iraqi security sources. He told Iraq's top brass to keep
the militias, which are expanding their power in Iraq and now form
part of its security apparatus, in check, the sources said. If not,
the U.S. would respond with force.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The US-Iran tensions have now reached a new high.
Following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, its
imposing of harsh sanctions on Tehran, and deploying
the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf region, the
Islamic Republic has been isolated financially, militarily, and
diplomatically. "Iran doesn't have an economic, political, or
diplomatic way to face the US or Europe, nor to negotiate with Russia
and China," Dr. Hassan Hashemian, a political analyst told Al
Arabiya.
CYBERWARFARE
When an attractive young Middle Eastern woman contacted
Saudi dissident Ali AlAhmed over Twitter last November, he was
immediately suspicious. AlAhmed's radar was up because he had
previously been targeted by hackers posing as a female journalist.
But this turned out to be part of a different operation. The Twitter
account, purportedly belonging to an Egyptian writer named Mona
A.Rahman, was not an attempt to hack the Washington-based AlAhmed -
it was an attempt to enlist him in an ambitious global disinformation
effort linked to Tehran, according to the Canadian internet watchdog
Citizen Lab.
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