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TOP STORIES
President Trump has sought to put the brakes on a
brewing confrontation with Iran in recent days, telling the acting
defense secretary, Patrick Shanahan, that he does not want to go to
war with Iran, administration officials said, while his senior
diplomats began searching for ways to defuse the tensions. Mr. Trump's
statement, during a Wednesday morning meeting in the Situation Room,
sent a message to his hawkish aides that he does not want the
intensifying American pressure campaign against the Iranians to
explode into open conflict.
Iran's most prominent military leader has recently met
Iraqi militias in Baghdad and told them to "prepare for proxy
war", the Guardian has learned. Two senior intelligence sources
said that Qassem Suleimani, leader of Iran's powerful Quds force,
summoned the militias under Tehran's influence three weeks ago, amid
a heightened state of tension in the region. The move to mobilise
Iran's regional allies is understood to have triggered fears in the
US that Washington's interests in the Middle East are facing a
pressing threat. The UK raised its threat levels for British troops
in Iraq on Thursday.
A U.S. official said Thursday that Iranian missiles
loaded on small boats in the Persian Gulf were among the
"threats" that have triggered a beefed-up military
deployment in the region. "The missiles on civilian boats are a
concern," said the official, who asked not to be named. The
person was confirming reports in The New York Times saying that
Washington reacted to aerial photos from U.S. intelligence agencies
showing traditional boats carrying Iranian missiles in the Gulf, one
of the world's most strategic waterways.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Imagine an executive of a respected French or German
multinational corporation attending a conference organised by
officials from Islamic State in 2016 because it controlled oil wells
worth billions of euros. Imagine also that there is a very high
likelihood of being surveilled, scouted for intelligence value or
even recruited by one of the most active terror organisations in the
world at this conference. You would assume that no executive would
take such a risk, right?
...According to David Daoud, a research analyst on
Hezbollah and Lebanon at United Against Nuclear Iran, while the video
suggests that the IRGC base was discovered this past February, it
"could be much older." "I also doubt APCs would be of
any use to Iran or its proxies in confronting the United States or
regional allies like the Israelis. They'd be easy targets for
superior stand-off firepower," Daoud told The Jerusalem Post.
Nevertheless, the fact that the base is in close proximity to Rayak
Air Base shows two things, Daoud said.
During a recent speech, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
declared that "Obama, the president of the United States, asked
me nineteen times for a meeting. But the government did not have the
authorization to respond." Most likely, President Barack Obama
did not ask 19 times for such a meeting, but another U.S. president
has made it publicly clear that he wants to have talks with Iran.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The remaining signatories of Iran's nuclear deal should
act to save the accord as "supportive statements" are not
enough, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Iranian
state media before leaving Japan on his way to China. Last week,
Iran notified the five remaining signatories that it would scale back
some commitments under its 2015 nuclear deal, a year after Washington
left the pact and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. Tehran has asked the
other signatories to help protect its economy from U.S. sanctions.
Iran's foreign minister traveled Friday to China on his
Asian tour aimed at keeping world markets open to Tehran amid an
intense sanctions campaign from the U.S. as tensions across the
Persian Gulf remain high. Concerns about a possible conflict have
flared since the White House ordered warships and bombers to the
region to counter an alleged, unexplained threat from Iran that has
seen America order nonessential diplomatic staff out of Iraq.
Iran could consider talks with the Trump administration
if it first returns to the 2015 nuclear deal and ends its sanctions,
the vice president said, as fears grow that the two countries are
heading for armed conflict. "If they go back to the original
position that they had at the beginning of their government then yes,
it can be considered," Masoumeh Ebtekar said in an interview at
her office in Tehran on Wednesday.
President Hassan Rouhani announced earlier this
month that Iran would suspend implementation of some of its
commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA), one year after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
Rouhani also signaled that unless the remaining JCPOA signatories
stepped up to fulfill the promised economic dividends of the accord,
then there would be subsequent phases of Iranian action ahead.
Israel's acquisition in early 2018 of a
significant portion of Iran's nuclear archive, which details an
effort to build five nuclear weapons and prepare an underground
nuclear test site in the early 2000s, has revealed an unpleasant
truth: Iran has been in violation of the spirit, if not the
letter, of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the 2015
nuclear deal, and other non-proliferation commitments.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Oil prices increased for a third straight day Thursday,
driven by stock market gains on Wall Street and escalating skirmishes
between Iran and U.S. allies that threaten to disrupt oil supplies
and shipments in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate
futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, ended 1.4% higher at $62.87 a barrel
on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking the biggest one-day gain
in three weeks and the highest close since May 1.
Iraq has contingency plans for any stoppage of Iranian
gas imports for its power grid but hopes no such disruption will take
place, Oil Minister Thamer Ghadhban said on Thursday. He also
said a meeting of OPEC's ministerial monitoring committee in Saudi
Arabia this weekend would assess member states' commitment to a deal
reducing oil production and that oil prices and markets were now
stable.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
In a statement issued on Thursday, the Iran's Writers
Association (IWA), a civil society union, has protested the
sentencing of three Iranian writers, who received a total of 18 years
in prison IWA condemned the verdict as one "against all writers
and everyone struggling for freedom of expression." Iran's
Judiciary on Wednesday sentenced Reza Khandan Mahabadi, Baktash
Abtin, and Kayvan Bajan to a total of 18 years in jail, the writers'
defense lawyers told the press.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
A senior Iranian military official has accused U.S.
President Donald Trump of dishonesty, saying Washington is calling
for talks while "holding a gun" at Tehran, the
semi-official news agency Mehr reported on Friday. Trump has
said publicly he wants to pursue a diplomatic route with Iran after
withdrawing the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, moving
to cut off all Iranian oil exports this month while beefing up the
U.S. Navy and Air Force presence in the Gulf.
Intelligence collected by the U.S. government shows
Iran's leaders believe the U.S. planned to attack them, prompting
preparation by Tehran for possible counterstrikes, according to one
interpretation of the information, people familiar with the matter
said. That view of the intelligence could help explain why Iranian
forces and their allies took action that was seen as threatening to
U.S. forces in Iraq and elsewhere, prompting a U.S. military buildup
in the Persian Gulf region and a drawdown of U.S. diplomats in Iraq.
The Pentagon is working with its Defense Intelligence
Agency to declassify and release images -- including two traditional
sailing vessels carrying land-attack missiles -- to back up the Trump
administration's claims of a growing threat from Iran, according to
four defense officials. The evidence may be released within a day,
according to one of the officials, because the White House recognizes
it needs to disclose more documentation to skeptical allies, U.S.
lawmakers and the public.
The prospect of U.S. military action against Iran has
notably little international support. U.S. allies
have publicly balked at the idea, and major powers such as
Russia and the European Union have called for restraint. There is
little support for conflict with Iran among U.S. lawmakers, some of
whom have expressed exasperation about a lack of information.
Even the tough-talking U.S. president, ever fond of trashing Tehran,
is reported to have pushed back on White House national security
adviser John Bolton's calls for a more hawkish Iran policy.
To listen to most Democrats or television pundits, one
could believe Trump administration officials are intentionally and
recklessly trying to provoke a war with Iran, trapping a reluctant
president in a costly conflict that would imperil U.S. security
and his own political future. In fact, that's not their aim. But
their strategy to combine "maximum pressure" and "deterrence"
is difficult and risky. To be sure, the Trump administration is
partially responsible for the widespread confusion over its Iran
policy.
Iran's foreign minister said Thursday there is "no
possibility" of negotiations with the United States to reduce
spiraling tensions, Japan's Kyodo news agency reported. "No,
there is no possibility for negotiations," the news agency cited
Mohammad Javad Zarif as telling reporters in Tokyo, where he is
meeting with Japanese officials. Kyodo said the comment was in
response to a question on whether he would be open to bilateral talks
with Washington aimed at easing tensions.
During a trip to Japan, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif spoke to journalists regarding the latest status of the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the increasing tension
with the United States. Zarif said that any military action by the
group he dubbed the B-team (national security adviser John Bolton,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammad bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Zayed) would be "political suicide."
The top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee says he
is "convinced" there is cause for concern around
Iran's activists following a pair of briefings on the Gulf nation.
"I am convinced that the information and warnings that we have
collected are of greater concern than the normal Iranian harassment
activity that we've seen in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding
area," Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas) told
reporters Thursday.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
A senior Iranian lawmaker said on Thursday he was gathering
signatures in the parliament to support a motion to oust Oil Minister
Bijan Zanganeh for his inability to counter U.S. sanctions on Iran's
oil sales. Hedayatollah Khademi was quoted as saying by Fars
news agency that "we have prepared the motion for impeachment of
Zanganeh because we believe he is not a man for difficult days in the
oil ministry."
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
The drums of war are sounding across the Middle East,
driven by the Trump administration as well as by disputed
attacks on Saudi Arabian tankers and an oil pipeline. But Rohile
Gharaibeh, a prominent Jordanian politician and newspaper columnist,
has watched it all with a mixture of disdain and weary exasperation.
"A circus," Mr. Gharaibeh said in a phone interview,
describing recent events as little more than a spectacle with
multiple foreign actors on the stage. "It's no more than
shenanigans to apply more pressure on Iran."
In the event of war with the United States, Iran
"will not be alone." That message was delivered by the
leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group to a mass rally in
Beirut in February marking the 40th anniversary of Iran's Islamic
Revolution. "If America launches war on Iran, it will not be
alone in the confrontation, because the fate of our region is tied to
the Islamic Republic," Hassan Nasrallah said.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
A former Uggs salesman with a rocky marriage has been
found guilty of working as a "sleeper" agent for an arm of
Hezbollah while living in the Bronx - helping the terror group
prepare for attacks on New York City. After less than a day of
deliberations, a Manhattan federal jury found Bronx resident Ali
Kourani, 34, guilty on eight counts that included providing support to
Hezbollah, which carries up to life in prison.
Israel has been providing Washington with intelligence
about potential Iranian attacks. Its prime minister, Benjamin
Netanyahu, has made Iran's strategic ambitions an obsession. And as
recently as February he floated the idea of war with Iran. But
analysts and former Israeli military and intelligence officials say
the Israeli government is not angling for a full-blown war between
the United States and Iran. Such a war, Israeli officials fear, could
plunge Israel into a mutually destructive conflagration with Iran's
ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
GULF STATES, YEMEN & IRAN
Yemen's Houthis are an indivisible part of Iran's
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and are subject to the IRGC's
orders, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel al-Jubeir,
said on Thursday. He added that this is confirmed by the Houthi
targeting of facilities in the Kingdom.
CHINA & IRAN
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is set to
visit China on Friday for talks on "regional and international
issues", state news agency IRNA reported. Coming amid soaring
tensions between Washington and Tehran, the visit would be an opportunity
to discuss the 2015 nuclear deal from which the United States
unilaterally withdrew a year ago, IRNA said.
IRAQ & IRAN
A top Iranian general has told Iran-backed militias in
Iraq to "prepare for proxy war" in the wake of
heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S.,
which accused the militias of moving missiles toward American
forces. Qassem Soleimani, a commander of Iran's extraterritorial
military operations Quds Force, called for a meeting with the
militias three weeks ago, but the exact timing of the gathering
remains unclear, the Guardian reported Thursday.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Britain agrees with the United States that Iran poses a
heightened threat and will work closely with its ally, Foreign
Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday. Hunt said he had discussed
Iran with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week in London, and
again in Brussels on Monday. "We share the same assessment of
the heightened threat posed by Iran," Hunt said on Twitter.
"As always we work closely with the USA."
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