Eye on Iran: UN Nuke Chief Concerned About Iran

For continuing coverage follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.    Top Stories AP: "The U.N's top nuclear official expressed concern Tuesday that Iran may be secretly continuing work on nuclear weapons while his agency is tied up in protracted negotiations with the country on restarting an investigation into past suspected research and development of such arms. The comments by International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano are bound to resonate with Israel and Western nations, which assert Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capacity even though it insists its atomic activities are transparent and peaceful... 'We do not know for sure, but we have information indicating that Iran was engaged in activities relevant to the development of nuclear explosive devices in the past and now,' he told The Associated Press in what appeared to be his most specific assertion that such activities are continuing into the present. While not going into detail, Amano said the IAEA's information was 'cross checked ... so we have concerns.'" http://t.uani.com/Z1poCp Bloomberg: "The first international treaty regulating the $70 billion global arms trade was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly yesterday in a vote that came amid a U.S. debate on gun control. The treaty was approved by a 154-3 tally, easily more than two-thirds of the 193-member General Assembly. Iran, Syria and North Korea voted against the pact, and 23 countries abstained... Hammered out after years of negotiations, the agreement seeks to stop cross-border shipments of conventional weapons -- from small arms and missile launchers to tanks, warships and attack helicopters -- that could enable war crimes, terrorism or human rights violations." http://t.uani.com/ZzBGky Reuters: "Iran will pursue its nuclear quest although it has reaped few gains from a totem of national pride that has cost it well over $100 billion in lost oil revenue and foreign investment alone, two think-tanks said on Wednesday. A report by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Federation of American Scientists said Iran's atomic work could not simply be ended or 'bombed away' and that diplomacy was the only way to keep it peaceful. 'It is entangled with too much pride - however misguided - and sunk costs simply to be abandoned,' the report's authors, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group and Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour, said of Iran's five-decade-old nuclear program, which began under the U.S.-allied shah... The report, entitled 'Iran's Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks', seeks to tabulate the opportunity costs of the nuclear program, and puts these at 'well over $100 billion' in terms of lost foreign investment and oil revenues... 'No sound strategic energy planning would prioritize nuclear energy in a country like Iran,' the report said." http://t.uani.com/14NiLLe   Nuclear Program WashPost: "After more than four years of diplomacy, the Obama administration is struggling to contain the nuclear threats posed by North Korea and Iran, a pair of nations already isolated internationally and resistant to the economic incentives offered in return for an end to their programs... In the case of Iran, the administration is pursuing an elusive deal to halt that country's nuclear advances. Diplomats from the United States and five other world powers will meet with Iranian officials in Kazakhstan on Friday for negotiations aimed at persuading Tehran to agree to limits on its nuclear program. A round of talks in February was hailed as 'positive' by Iranian officials, but it yielded no concessions by Iran. Western diplomats involved in preparations for this week's talks say Iran is expected to make a new offer that would include an agreement to restrict or suspend some of its production of enriched uranium. But they say Iran is likely to insist on immediate relief from economic sanctions, something that the United States and its European allies are not likely to grant. A former senior administration official said Monday that chances for a deal in the near future remain slim. 'I have such low expectations for what's going to come out of this next round of talks that I think it's a mistake to try to set the bar,' the former adviser, Gary Samore, told a panel at the Brookings Institution in Washington. 'I think that it really is unrealistic to expect that there'll be some kind of breakthrough in these talks.'" http://t.uani.com/XdhvfD Sanctions Reuters: "Trade sanctions against Iran and the bankruptcy of U.S. steelmaker RG Steel were among the troubles that forced London-based commodities trader Balli to enter administration, industry sources said... 'Most of Balli's business was done with Iran, so obviously with the sanctions their ability to do business out of London with Iran was dramatically reduced,' a steel trader said." http://t.uani.com/14Nk1hx NPR: "According to recent reports from Iran, inflation rates rose for the sixth consecutive month in March. It currently stands at 31.5 percent. Robert Siegel talks with New York Times reporter Thomas Erdbrink about the effects of high inflation rates on Iran." http://t.uani.com/XM2D9D Human Rights BBC: "BBC Persian TV continues to defy the odds by reaching record numbers of viewers in Iran in 2013. A new survey puts the audience at a new high of 11.4m - up 90% on last year's figure of 6m - despite persistent jamming of satellites from inside Iran and harassment of the families of BBC Persian staff by Iranian officials. The success follows a similarly massive audience jump in 2012, when the number of viewers rose by 85% from 3.1m to 6m. Peter Horrocks, World Service director, attributes the growth to 'the professionalism and bravery' of staff whose families in Iran have faced intimidation by the Iranian authorities. 'It is clear that crude attempts to discredit our journalism are failing and ordinary Iranians are increasingly turning to the BBC for independent news they can trust,' he says." http://t.uani.com/XM6VxH Opinion & Analysis Patrick Clawson in WINEP: "The image of Iran's economy as oil, carpets, and pistachios was always flawed, but has now become badly dated. The Islamic Republic is in the midst of a non-oil export boom -- it has the potential to remain a middle-income country even with no oil exports, and the reserves to finance the transition in the meantime. For years, Iran's leaders called for reduced reliance on oil but did little to meet that goal. Western sanctions have seemingly spurred them to action -- in his annual Nowruz address on March 21, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei acknowledged for the first time that restrictions on the country's oil exports had made a serious impact: 'The sanctions have had an effect, which is because of an essential flaw that we are suffering from. The flaw that our economy is suffering from is that it is dependent on oil.' He also acknowledged that Iran's 'economic weakness' had led to 'harsh conditions for certain groups of people.' Rather than change Iranian nuclear policy, however, he argued, 'We can turn every threat into an opportunity...The sanctions caused the massive domestic capacities of the Iranian nation to become activated.' While still important, oil is becoming a smaller part of Iran's trade. In 2012, the country imported $57 billion in goods and exported $34 billion in non-oil products, meaning that non-oil exports covered 60% of the import bill, compared to 24% in 2002 and 14% in 1992. It produced this shift in part by converting more of its oil into industrial products for export; according to the Iranian Customs Administration, the $29.2 billion in non-oil exports over the first eleven months of fiscal 2012/2013 included $9.0 billion in chemical products (mostly petrochemicals such as urea fertilizer and polyethylene) and $3.2 billion in plastics made from oil. But other products are also being exported at high rates, including $8.2 billion in minerals, stone, cement, and related products, $5.3 billion in agricultural products, and $800 million in carpets. The country's largest market is Iraq, which took $5.6 billion in goods over the same period, including much of Iran's manufactured exports (e.g., more than $300 million in automobiles). The next-largest customers were China ($4.8 billion), the United Arab Emirates ($3.9 billion), Afghanistan ($2.5 billion), India ($2.4 billion), and Turkey ($1.3 billion). Overall, Iran's 179-page monthly customs report shows in great detail how the balance of trade is steadily improving, with category after category of exports headed up and category after category of imports headed down. To be sure, the country still has a large non-oil trade deficit, a problem exacerbated by the deficit in services and on the capital account. But its capital outflow also appears to be decreasing -- Central Bank data reported in Tehran's Donya-e Eqtesad newspaper pegged this outflow at $2.4 billion in April-May 2012 compared to $11.4 billion the previous year, in no small part because international banks cut their exposure to Iran. If the declining deficits continue, Iran could use its ample reserves to finance a moderately smooth transition to an economy without oil exports... Thus far, international sanctions have focused on decreasing Iran's oil income, but Tehran has apparently decided to accept the immediate pain while promoting a smaller role for oil, undercutting the West's strategy. In fact, the regime's approach is good for Iran in the long term. To quote OPEC founder Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, oil has often been the devil's curse, encouraging a windfall mentality that impedes growth. Exploring alternative Western strategies requires a fuller study, but a few implications of this analysis merit mention. One is that extending sanctions to cover all Iranian exports would be very difficult. Getting Turkey, China, India, and others to give up Iranian oil was hard enough; persuading them not to buy Iranian fertilizer would be even tougher." http://t.uani.com/16nlpne Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.