Thursday, April 18, 2013

Eye on Iran: A Well-Oiled Smuggling Machine









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Top Stories

Free Beacon: "Iran is engaged in an elaborate oil smuggling scheme that enables it to skirt international sanctions as it transmits valuable crude oil to China, according to an investigation released last week by a watchdog group. Iranian ships have been travelling out of the country's Kharg Island oil export terminal, making their way east of the Strait of Hormuz, then shutting down communication devices in order to mask their activities, according to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which recently concluded a detailed investigation into Iran's sanctions-busting behaviors. UANI discovered Iranian ships are illicitly offloading their crude oil at sea, falsely billing it as a legal product, and shipping it to China, which is the top purchaser of Iranian crude oil. Western governments including the United States have failed to act on this new information despite UANI's efforts to petition authorities, a spokesman told the Washington Free Beacon. Iran activities can clearly be classified as illegal smuggling because 'the vessels transfer their oil to other vessels in secret, in order to disguise its origins and circumvent international sanctions,' UANI spokesman Nathan Carleton said." http://t.uani.com/Z2TCc5

AP: "Technicians upgrading Iran's main uranium enrichment facility have tripled their installations of high-tech machines that could be used in a nuclear weapons program to more than 600 in the last three months, diplomats said Wednesday. They say the machines are not yet producing enriched uranium and some may be only partially installed. Still the move is the latest sign that 10 years of diplomatic efforts have failed to persuade Tehran to curb its uranium enrichment. Instead, Iran continues to increase its capacities. The installations also suggest that Iran possesses both the technology and the raw materials to mass-produce centrifuges that can enrich uranium much faster than the more than 12,000 inefficient machines now making up the backbone of its enrichment program." http://t.uani.com/ZzCbLQ

Reuters: "Iran may in the future need highly enriched uranium to power submarines and other vessels, a top nuclear official was quoted as saying on Tuesday. The comments by Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, are likely to stoke Western concerns about the nature of Iran's nuclear program, as uranium enriched beyond 20 percent fissile purity is a relatively short technical step from weapons-grade. 'For now we have no plans for enrichment above 20 percent,' Abbasi-Davani said, according to the Fars news agency. 'But in some cases ... such as ships and submarines, if our researchers have a need for greater presence under the sea, we must build small engines whose construction requires fuel enriched to 45 to 56 percent.' Western experts doubt that Iran, which is under a U.N. arms and nuclear technology embargo, has the capability to make the kind of sophisticated underwater vessel any time soon that only the world's most powerful states currently have. But experts have said Iran could use the plan to justify more sensitive atomic activity." http://t.uani.com/17Gk9Pk
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Nuclear Program

WSJ: "The U.S. should change its approach on Iran by holding two-way talks and offering to ease punitive sanctions in exchange for nuclear concessions, according to a bipartisan group that has drawn support in the past from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel. A report on Wednesday by the Iran Project, which is backed by a group of former diplomats, military officers and lawmakers, will recommend the U.S. promise to lighten sanctions if Iran reduces stockpiles of enriched uranium and provides other concessions. 'Here is an option that really ought to be looked at before you move to military force,' said veteran U.S. diplomat Thomas Pickering. 'The negotiation track should be made as robust and forward leading as the pressure track has been up until now.' ... Fred Kagan, a defense expert at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said Iran wants the capability to become a nuclear state and diplomacy stands little chance of success. 'It is naiveté about how the Iranians operate, and it is naiveté about what we are looking at,' Mr. Kagan said. 'The Iranians have made the decision to acquire the capability to field a nuclear weapon.'" http://t.uani.com/ZwiYvg

AFP: "The leaders of Iran and Niger on Tuesday said they had engaged in 'fruitful' discussions but had not talked about uranium during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's two-day visit to the world's fourth-largest uranium producer. 'Niger is a uranium producer, but as surprising as it may sound to you, we did not touch upon that,' Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou said during a press conference in Niamey. 'The specific question of uranium has not been discussed.' ... 'We are (both) signatories to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and we agree that uranium should serve people, promoting life and not (be used) for destruction,' Issoufou told reporters." http://t.uani.com/ZzBX7h

Sanctions

UPI: "An oil exhibition in Iran is a chance to show that sanctions do little to displace the country as a world leader, Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said. Iran kicks off its 18th International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition this week. Qasemi said the event showcases Iran's ability to make progress in the energy sector despite economic sanctions. '(Sanctions) have not only failed to paralyze Iran but also contributed to the blossoming of national domestic talents in the light of self-sufficiency campaign,' he was quoted by Press TV as saying. Qasemi said he expects more than 1,000 foreign and domestic companies to attend the four-day event." http://t.uani.com/112IJVw

Bloomberg: "Dubai's state refining company, which buys most of its condensate from Iran, is seeking alternative sources of the fuel to curb imports from the Islamic republic and avoid running afoul of international sanctions. Iran is 'still the major supplier,' Saeed Khoory, chief executive officer of Emirates National Oil Co., said today in an interview in Dubai. 'We are trying to find other sources.' ENOC, as the refiner is known, wants new suppliers of condensate because U.S. sanctions threaten financial penalties for companies that trade with Iran. ENOC said in February it had signed a contract with the Gulf sheikhdom of Qatar for a year's supply of condensate. ENOC operates a 120,000 barrel-a-day condensate refinery that splits the light crude into oil products such as naphtha, reformate, jet fuel and diesel." http://t.uani.com/XRae7T

Domestic Politics

NYT:
"Southeast Iran was hit Tuesday by the most powerful earthquake to strike the country in 40 years, and its reverberations were felt as far away as India, but Iranian officials said the tremor had originated so deep underground, and in such a sparsely populated area, that it caused relatively few casualties and only minor damage. The authorities in Iran had initially feared hundreds of deaths from the 7.8-magnitude earthquake, but scaled back their assessment as it became clear that its depth, initially reported to be only about 10 miles beneath the surface, was more than 56 miles beneath. The shallower the quake, the greater the ground motion and potential for damage. The earthquake, which struck at 3:14 p.m. local time, was felt in several countries, rocking buildings in the Indian capital, New Delhi, sending panicked residents of Karachi, Pakistan, fleeing into the streets and causing tremors through Persian Gulf states." http://t.uani.com/17nQCHl

AFP: "The U.S. on Tuesday offered assistance to Iran and Pakistan after a massive earthquake near their border, despite Washington's tense relationship with Tehran. Secretary of State John Kerry offered 'our deepest condolences' to the families of the dead and to the injured following the magnitude 7.8 quake that killed at least 34 people. 'We stand ready to offer assistance in this difficult time,' Mr. Kerry said. Disaster relief contributed to an earlier thaw in relations between the U.S. and Iran, which--then led by reformist president Mohammad Khatami--accepted U.S. personnel following the massive Bam earthquake in 2003. But Iran has declined U.S. offers for assistance in more recent tragedies." http://t.uani.com/13h5WJa

Opinion & Analysis

Marc Champion in Bloomberg: "Iran suffered a massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake this morning -- one more demonstration of why the country's nuclear program is an albatross it should shed. Just last week, that a smaller 6.1 magnitude quake hit 100 miles from Iran's only nuclear plant, Bushehr on the Persian Gulf, killing 37 people and injuring 950. Fortunately, that quake was too small to damage the Bushehr reactor and today's was too far away, on the border with Pakistan. There were conflicting reports of how many died either side of the border, but the toll is likely to be relatively small for such a big tremor, because the area is sparsely populated. (For comparison, a smaller 6.6 earthquake in 2003, in the adjacent Iranian province of Kerman, killed more than 26,000). These two narrow escapes should be extremely worrisome for Iranians and the Persian Gulf city-states across the water from Bushehr. In Dubai this morning, swaying buildings were evacuated because of the strength of an earthquake more than 400 miles away. After last week's quake, gulf-state officials said that they wanted to send inspectors to check Bushehr for themselves. Their capitals are downwind from the plant, and much closer to it than Tehran. Bushehr's Russian operators said again today that the plant was unaffected. Bushehr is unique, a Russian reactor bolted onto a different German design after a consortium led by Siemens AG ceased work at the time of the 1979 revolution. It is a bespoke nuclear plant, which in terms of safety and predictability is a bad thing. Mismatches in the design were one reason (there were many) why it took so long and cost so much to build. Iran insists it wants to make nuclear fuel only for civilian purposes. So it's worth a quick recap of why the Iranian program hurts Iran: Bushehr provides just 2 percent of the country's electricity, so it isn't necessary; Iran has the world's second largest reserves of natural gas after Russia and the world's fourth-largest proven reserves of oil, so again nuclear isn't necessary; in part because of sanctions imposed over Iran's economically worthless nuclear program, investment in the country's gas and oil extraction has suffered, and production and exports are well below where they should be -- this was true even before sanctions got tough last year. Most important, Iran's lack of training and equipment and the failed response to the 2003 is one of the countries least well equipped to deal with major disasters, whether natural or nuclear." http://t.uani.com/13imBbr

Michael Ledeen in WSJ: "With an Iranian presidential election coming in June, President Obama may be presented with a second chance to get his policy right. In 2009, when massive protests followed Iran's disputed presidential vote, Mr. Obama sat by as the insurrection was brutally put down by the Tehran regime. But the rage against the regime is still intense, and if similar protests explode in June, the White House should be prepared.  The president ought to know from the example of the Arab Spring that seemingly secure despots can be toppled by popular will. The coming elections offer a chance for America to demonstrate its belated support for the Iranian opposition, and Washington would do well to encourage the Iranian people to rise up in the coming months. Mr. Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said that Iran is unlikely to produce a nuclear weapon in less than a year. That period gives the U.S., Israel and their allies breathing room to pursue an alternative to the two stark choices of accepting a nuclear Iran or launching a military strike to stop it. A third option is encouraging and supporting the opposition in Iran, where millions of people yearn to be freed of the ayatollahs' oppressive rule. Like the Soviet Union in its latter days, Iran's regime is hollow and detested by most of its people. Few believed that Soviet rule would end without war, yet it imploded with little violence. At the time, intelligence assessments described the Soviet regime as stable and the economy as relatively healthy-even though unrest was actually rampant, the economy moribund.  Thanks to sanctions and government mismanagement, Iran can't even make a pretense of economic health: Official analyses from the Iranian parliament's research center show that, in a survey of 98 companies, production over the past 12 months has declined 40.3%. Employment has dropped 36.5% over that same year. Inflation is roaring: Finished products cost 87.9% more, and raw materials are up 112%. The country is riddled with strikes and protests from workers who haven't been paid for months. The Iranian government is also widely viewed within the country as corrupt and illegitimate, having stolen the 2009 elections. The Green Movement, which briefly flourished after the vote, has seen its leaders arrested by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has also shut down scores of newspapers, magazines and websites... What can the U.S. do to make this happen? Take a page from the playbook used to stir internal challenges to Moscow's rule.  Leaders in both the executive and legislative branches should publicly call for the end of the regime, just as President Reagan decried the 'evil empire.' And the Iranian people must hear about it: At present, American broadcasting to Iran focuses heavily on American events and policies, often very critically. A more concerted effort should be made to give Iranians real news about their country. And members of the opposition should be furnished with the hardware to better communicate with each other and the outside world." http://t.uani.com/15jRwYV

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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