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Top Stories
AP:
"The Obama administration may have to backtrack on its promise that
it will suspend only nuclear-related economic sanctions on Iran as part
of an emerging nuclear agreement, officials and others involved in the
process tell The Associated Press. The problem derives from what was once
a strong point of the broad U.S. sanctions effort that many credit with
bringing Iran to the negotiating table in the first place. Administration
officials vehemently reject that any backtracking is taking place, but
they are lumping sanctions together differently from the way members of
Congress and critics of the negotiations separate them. Under the
sanctions developed over decades, hundreds of companies and individuals
have been penalized not only for their role in the country's nuclear
program but also for ballistic missile research, terrorism, human rights
violations and money laundering. Now the administration is wending its
way through that briar patch of interwoven economic sanctions... For
example, they say measures designed to stop Iran from acquiring ballistic
missiles are nuclear-related because they were imposed to push Iran into
the negotiations. Also, they say sanctions that may appear non-nuclear
are often undergirded by previous actions conceived as efforts to stop
Iran's nuclear program... Eliminating the secondary sanctions across the
board could have wide-ranging implications, making it easier for Iran's
Revolutionary Guard Corps and its police, intelligence services and
paramilitary groups to do business." http://t.uani.com/1GynODh
Bloomberg:
"United Nations monitors said governments reported no new incidents
of Iran violating Security Council sanctions against its nuclear program,
even though some have unfolded in plain sight. 'The current situation
with reporting could reflect a general reduction of procurement
activities by the Iranian side or a political decision by some member
states to refrain from reporting to avoid a possible negative impact on
ongoing negotiations' between Iran and six world powers, said a panel of
experts for the UN committee on Iran sanctions in its latest report,
dated June 1 and made public Tuesday... The report raised questions about
whether countries, including the U.S. and its European allies, have
looked the other way on some sanctions violations. No country reported
that General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the elite Quds force of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, violated a UN-mandated travel ban
despite 'a number of media reports with photographs and videos' showing him
in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, 'reportedly organizing and training militia
and regular forces in those countries.' The report included examples of
such photos." http://t.uani.com/1f2ERkH
AP:
"The top U.S. military officer reassured Israel on Tuesday that it
will maintain a military edge over potential adversaries, including Gulf
Arab states, regardless of whether Washington completes a nuclear deal
with Iran. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
said Israeli officials raised with him their concern about the scope of
U.S. arms sales to Gulf Arab states as they build defenses against an
expansionist Iran. The U.S. has long promised to ensure that Israel
enjoys a qualitative military edge in the region... Dempsey said he
understands why Israelis believe a nuclear deal will give Iran room to
accelerate its funding of surrogate Shiite groups like Hezbollah and to
put more resources into its own military. 'I share their concern,'
Dempsey said. 'If the deal is reached and results in sanctions relief,
which results in more economic power and more purchasing power for the
Iranian regime, it's my expectation that it's not all going to flow into
the economy to improve the lot of the average Iranian citizen. I think
they will invest in their surrogates; I think they will invest in
additional military capability.'" http://t.uani.com/1MIiso1
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AP:
"Israel's prime minister said Tuesday that Arab leaders agree with
him that an emerging nuclear deal with Iran won't stop Tehran from
getting atomic weapons. Benjamin Netanyahu's remarks come as Tehran and
the six world powers negotiating with Iran face a June 30 target date for
a comprehensive deal on curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for
sanctions' relief. Netanyahu told the prestigious Herzliya conference, an
annual gathering that draws speakers from around the world, that he is
not the only voice in the Middle East against the deal. 'I am often
portrayed as the nuclear party pooper,' Netanyahu said. 'But I speak with
quite a few of our neighbors, more than you think, and I want to tell you
that nobody in this region believes this deal will block Iran's path to
the bomb.' ... Netanyahu also warned the deal would spark a nuclear arms
race that will see the region 'crisscrossed with nuclear trip wires as
other states nuclearize' in fear of Iran. He said lifting the sanctions
rewards Iran with 'prosperity at home' while allowing it to continue
'aggression abroad.'" http://t.uani.com/1L1hnJQ
AP:
"Nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers are accelerating as
the sides try to seal a deal by the June 30 target date. After a meeting
last week that stretched into the weekend, experts from all seven nations
are resuming negotiations Tuesday. They will be joined by senior
officials later in the week." http://t.uani.com/1f2CA98
WSJ:
"When a leading cybersecurity firm discovered it had been hacked
last year by a virus widely believed to be used by Israeli spies, it
wanted to know who else was on the hit list. It checked millions of
computers world-wide and three luxury European hotels popped up. The
other hotels the firm tested-thousands in all-were clean. Researchers at
the firm, Kaspersky Lab ZAO, weren't sure what to make of the results.
Then they realized what the three hotels had in common. Each was targeted
before hosting high-stakes negotiations between Iran and world powers
over curtailing Tehran's nuclear program. The spyware, the firm has now
concluded, was an improved version of Duqu, a virus first identified by
cybersecurity experts in 2011, according to a Kaspersky report reviewed
by The Wall Street Journal and outside security experts. Current and
former U.S. officials and many cybersecurity experts believe Duqu was
designed to carry out Israel's most sensitive intelligence-collection
operations." http://t.uani.com/1B6cThK
NYT:
"In the shadow of the final weeks of nuclear talks, Iran and the
United States appeared headed on Tuesday toward a possible confrontation
over the recent purchase of nine used Airbus jetliners by Mahan Air, an
Iranian airline blacklisted under American sanctions more than three
years ago. Mahan Air acquired the planes - eight A340s and one A321 - in
May from sellers in Iraq, Syria and the United Arab Emirates as part of
what was described as an expansion plan to service Mahan's international
routes. The United States Treasury Department, which polices compliance
with sanctions, said at the time not only that the purchases had violated
American restrictions but also that the aircraft were now 'blockable.'
That means they could theoretically be prevented from leaving airports of
American allies and other countries that have civil aviation agreements
with Iran but that wish to avoid running afoul of the sanctions or
antagonizing the United States government. On Tuesday, the head of Iran's
civil aviation authority said an American effort to have the planes
impounded or to thwart Mahan Air's plans to fly them abroad would not be
tolerated". http://t.uani.com/1GdQyxL
WSJ:
"The U.S. cut funding for a civil society program in Lebanon that
seeks to develop alternative Shiite political voices to Hezbollah, the
powerful Iranian-backed militia and political party. The group that
received the U.S. support and critics said that the Obama administration
was curtailing its efforts to counter Hezbollah to avoid confronting
Shiite Iran, with which it is negotiating to conclude a historic nuclear
accord this month. These people say the funding cut imperils a program
that underpinned criticism in Lebanon of Hezbollah's growing role in
supporting President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war. 'We are more
immediately worried about the message this sends to Shia communities, in
Lebanon and the region, about their options for the future,' said Lokman
Slim, director of Hayya Bina, the organization that lost the funding...
Some pro-democracy activists in Washington also voiced concern that
cutting Hayya Bina's funding will send a message that the U.S. is tacitly
accepting Hezbollah in an effort to appease Iran." http://t.uani.com/1cLBvAJ
AFP:
"US Secretary of State John Kerry is doing some work by phone from
his hospital bed in Boston, 10 days after breaking his leg in a cycling
accident in the French Alps, officials said Tuesday. The State Department
has remained relatively tight-lipped about Kerry's progress after
America's top diplomat underwent surgery on his broken right femur in
Boston, Massachusetts on June 2. Officials have released no photos of
Kerry, 71, since he crashed his bicycle on May 31. The avid cyclist was
in the region for talks in Switzerland with his Iranian counterpart
Mohammad Javad Zarif on Tehran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1BYGSDe
Regional
Destabilization
AEI:
"The Islamic Revolution's current borders reach Bab el Mandeb and
Mediterranean coast. Hojjat al Eslam Ali Saidi discussed the ongoing
nuclear negotiations and Iran's global influence. The Supreme Leader's
Representative to the IRGC highlighted Iran's growing regional footprint,
stating that at the time of the Islamic Revolution, Iran's borders were
Haj Omran (in Iraq's Arbil Province) and Shalamcheh (in Khuzestan
Province, Iran)." http://t.uani.com/1QLU8lr
Extremism
Fars (Iran):
"Iranian Ground Force Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza
Pourdastan Tuesday called on Muslims, Shiites or Sunnis, to grow more
united against the divisive plots of the US to wreak havoc on them.
Pourdastan said that Washington's religion against religion strategy is
behind bloody attacks of the terrorist groups of ISIL, al-Nusra and Boko
Haram against Muslims in the region." http://t.uani.com/1cLHOo1
Human Rights
IHR:
"According to the Iranian state media 13 people have been executed
in different Iranian cities. Two men were publicly hanged in the town of
'Shahr Babak' (Kerman province, Southeastern Iran) Tuesday morning June
9, reported Iranian state media... The report also said that more than
4000 people watched the executions. Pictures published by the Iranian
media show several children among the public... The official website of
the Judiciary in Hormozgan province reported about the execution of 8
prisoners in the prison of Bandar Abbas (southern Iran) Monday morning
June 8." http://t.uani.com/1IFmr67
CBC:
"A man with Canadian permanent resident status has been sentenced to
eight years in an Iranian prison. Mostafa Azizi, 53, was sentenced Monday
in Iran on charges of collusion against Iran and insulting the supreme
leader. The charges apparently stem from some of Azizi's social media
posts. 'I'm still in shock,' says Parastoo Azizi, his daughter, who lives
in Toronto. Mostafa Azizi, a prominent filmmaker, emigrated to Canada
with his family in 2008. His children have Canadian citizenship, and
Azizi is a permanent resident who was in the process of gaining
citizenship. Azizi recently travelled back to Iran to visit his
relatives. During that trip, Azizi was arrested and held in Tehran's Evin
prison. After his trial, he was sentenced to eight years in prison."
http://t.uani.com/1JFiTRF
Toronto Star:
"At 40, many of us step back and assess where our lives are heading.
But if Iran's clerical regime has its way, Saeed Malekpour's future is
assured. Locked in Tehran's dungeonlike Evin Prison, the Canadian
resident is serving a life sentence that made his landmark birthday on
June 5 just one more day in the thousands that will pass, predictably,
without choices, aspirations or decisions that face those on the outside.
In the seven years he has already spent behind bars, the passage of time
has become a blur of accustomed pain, anxiety and numbness, which began
with his arrest in October 2008 during a visit to his dying father."
http://t.uani.com/1Ge2mAe
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI Advisory
Board Member Michael Singh in WSJ: "A foreign policy
fracas erupted last week when an Obama administration official slammed a
New York Times story asserting that growth in Iran's stockpile of
enriched uranium-reported in an International Atomic Energy Agency update
on Tehran's compliance with its international obligations-presented an
obstacle to negotiations over a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. In unusually
caustic language, an administration spokesperson called the Times's
contentions 'patently absurd' and 'bizarre.' The issue was technical:
The 'Joint Plan of Action' interim accord permits Iran to enrich uranium
up to 5%-this is considered 'low-enriched uranium'-while obligating it to
cease enrichment above that level. The accord also commits Iran to cap
its stockpile of uranium hexafluoride gas-the material that, if further
enriched, could provide fuel for a nuclear weapon-by converting any newly
produced low-enriched uranium and all uranium gas enriched to 20% into
other forms. Both lines of effort have faltered: Iran has made scant
progress in converting its low-enriched into the powder form prescribed
in the plan, or in turning its 20%-enriched uranium into fuel plates for
its research reactor. While it's possible that Iran could be preserving
its stockpiles in case the nuclear negotiations collapse, the Obama
administration has suggested, plausibly, that Iran is simply struggling
to master unfamiliar processes and that Iran is not in violation of the
joint plan because compliance with the caps is measured as of June 30,
not on a rolling basis... Iran's technical struggles as revealed by the
IAEA should strengthen U.S. leverage in this debate. If Iran cannot
master-or perhaps has never seriously prioritized-the technologies to
produce reactor fuel, that is another argument for Iran obtaining that fuel
from abroad rather than producing it indigenously. And if Iran cannot
meet the generous caps laid out in the joint action plan, it is likely to
have an even harder time meeting the more stringent stockpile
restrictions and other technical demands of a final agreement. This
suggests that more straightforward solutions, such as shipping Iran's
low-enriched uranium and other proscribed materiel abroad, should not
only be preferred but may also be necessary to deter Iranian
noncompliance. The reporting based on the IAEA disclosures could, then,
be a positive for the administration as it tries to negotiate a
worthwhile deal with Iran. But its public reaction to the Times report-a
news outlet certainly not considered to be slanted against the Obama
administration-and responses to some nonproliferation experts who raised
questions about the IAEA report were vehement, unequivocal, and, in some
cases, ad hominem. This sort of response risks conveying to Iran and to
others in the region and in Washington that the administration is
closed-minded to reports suggesting Iranian noncompliance or flaws in the
U.S. negotiating strategy-and that zealous enforcement of an agreement
may take a backseat to U.S.-Iran comity. Amid U.S. efforts to demonstrate
that Washington is determined to hold Iran to its commitments and will
not give it a free pass for the sake of smooth relations, the reaction
was ill-considered." http://t.uani.com/1Tbd0hP
Economist:
"Iran openly mocks America's timidity. "Obama hasn't done a
damned thing" in Ramadi, said Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds
Force, which runs Iran's numerous foreign operations; only Iran and its
militia clients were willing to fight IS. Yet it is on the possibility of
a deal with Iran that Mr Obama's best hope for a positive legacy in the
Middle East lies. Under the terms of April's "framework
agreement" on Iran's nuclear programme, the Islamic republic's
capacity to enrich uranium and produce plutonium will be curtailed and
subjected to unprecedented monitoring in return for the lifting of
sanctions. The capacity constraints, though not the inspection regime,
would ease off after a decade. Iran says it with then greatly enlarge its
programme, bringing its "breakout time" (the time needed to
produce enough fissile material for a single bomb) down from the year or
so that the deal is meant to guarantee to weeks or days. Mr Obama sees
the deal, due to be finalised at the end of this month, as making good
his promise to curb weapons of mass destruction. But it upsets old allies.
Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has openly agitated against
it, aggravating relations with Mr Obama already strained by rows over
settlement-building and the lack of progress on a Palestinian peace deal.
White House officials now say America might no longer block all UN
resolutions that Israel dislikes. And the Arab monarchies are aghast at
the prospect of an Iran free from sanctions stirring up even more
trouble. At a summit in Camp David last month, the leaders of the
six-member Gulf Co-operation Council did not get the American commitment
to contain Iran that they wanted. Mr Obama reassured them about America's
readiness to defend them against a direct attack; but behind closed doors
he told them the likelier threats were internal, and "asymmetric"
prodding by Iran, for instance on the safety of shipping lanes. The
allies' worries are not helped by Mr Obama's mixed signals. Sometimes he
presents the nuclear negotiation as a transaction with which to secure a
specific arms-control goal; at other times he talks of the possibility of
a broader rapprochement with Iran creating a "new equilibrium"
in the region. Some critics suspect Mr Obama wants to align America more
closely with Iran. But for Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department
official, now at the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, "the Iran
deal is not an attempt to get into bed with Iran; it is an attempt to get
out of bed with Saudi Arabia." He argues that America's dependence
on Gulf oil has diminished, and the price has become less sensitive to
political crises in the region (see chart). If the threat of an Iranian
nuclear bomb is set aside, says Mr Shapiro, America could disengage more
easily, relying on a lighter military presence to keep the Gulf's sea
lanes open. But if America retains an interest in the region's overall
stability, such disengagement would not serve it well. Even if a deal
strengthens Iran's doves, its hawks may either try to sabotage the deal
or demand greater latitude to expand their influence abroad as the price
of acquiescence. On the evidence of the Saudi-led coalition's actions
against the Houthis Iran supports in Yemen, nervous Gulf allies can be
expected to react forcefully, even overreact, to perceived Iranian
adventurism. They may, despite American entreaties, seek to develop a
nuclear capacity to match Iran's; a deal to halt nuclear weapons
proliferation may lead instead to the proliferation of nuclear-threshold
states. And Israel makes no secret of the fact that another round of
fighting with Lebanon's Hizbullah, Iran's main proxy, is only a matter of
time." http://t.uani.com/1MFy8Z2
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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