|
Join UANI
Top Stories
AP: "Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei says that average Iranians have not seen any benefit from the
nuclear deal with world powers... saying: 'Weren't the supposed sanctions
lifted to change the life of the people? Is any tangible effect seen in
people's life after six months?' Khamenei, who has final say on all
state matters, said the U.S. has continued to thwart Iran's economic
relations with other countries despite the landmark accord. He said
Tehran will not accept any further talks with Washington due to what he
described as U.S. violations of the deal, though he's previously ruled
out further negotiations in other speeches." http://t.uani.com/2aoWEzH
Bloomberg: "Iran is expected to approve a
new model for oil contracts on Wednesday, as part of a push to attract
billions of dollars of foreign investment to help rebuild its energy
industry... Iran has been working on the oil contract model for the
past two years. The Persian Gulf country hopes foreign companies will
invest as much as $50 billion a year in its oil sector. Major European
oil companies such as Italy's Eni SpA and France's Total SA have
expressed an interest in developing Iran's oil and gas fields. 'We'll be
into next year before we see any significant activity on the ground,,
said Robin Mills, chief executive officer of Dubai-based consultant Qamar
Energy. 'For a tender you really want three bidders at least per project
and I'm not sure they have a competitive enough situation.' Details
to look out for in the contract include legal clauses related to halting
work if sanctions are re-imposed and taxes, Mills said." http://t.uani.com/2aoJ6ur
Reuters: "Britain's vote to leave
the European Union and the rise of U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump
have paralyzed efforts by Western governments to encourage already highly
reluctant international banks to do business with Iran. Uncertainty
is frustrating Tehran's push for foreign investment to revive its
struggling economy: over Britain's political and economic future, over
whether Trump - who wants to scrap a nuclear deal with Iran - will get into
the White House, and over whether banks will fall foul of U.S. sanctions
if they process transactions with the Islamic Republic... Many large
banks also fear breaking the remaining U.S. restrictions on Iran,
including on dealing with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -
a military force that has extensive business interests including through
front companies."http://t.uani.com/2all7Gg
Business Risk
Arne Mielken in Compliance Week: "For those
compliance officers watching Iran closely, and especially within
companies considering doing business with Iran, what does all of this
mean?... [U]ncertainty-which is probably the worst enemy of
business-still remains. Even though a broad range of sanctions has been
lifted, an important part is still in force... While these primary
sanctions do not prevent banks outside the United States from processing
transactions in other currencies, the reality is that most banks are
deeply concerned that they may unwittingly breach U.S. sanctions and face
huge fines. Every bank has still in mind the case of BNP Paribas,
sentenced to a $9 billion fine for having financed transactions with
Iranian entities in U.S. dollars. As most major banks have
activities in the United States and employ U.S. citizens, they have to be
very careful in their transactions with Iranian parties. Many currently
feel the benefits are not worth the risks. Thus, they tend to reject
trade finance deals with Iranian connections out of fear of breaching
U.S. sanctions, even if these deals are in non-U.S. currency. Companies
and banks are also worried that the view of the U.S. Treasury Department
could be different from the view of American prosecutors and financial
regulators... Difficulties remain on the Iranian side as well.
Iranian enterprises struggle to make payments to companies abroad due to
the reluctance of many banks to deal with Iranian banks. The Iranian
banking system is outdated, much less regulated and much less transparent
than its Western counterparts. Iranian banks are weighed down by an
accumulation of bad debts, mainly as a result of investments in real
estate that went sour after the tightening of sanctions in 2011-2012 and
the end to the oil boom. Useful banking tools, such as stress tests,
stimulus packages, and quantitative easing cannot be used by the Iranian
banking system to restore solvency. Several Iranian entities remain
on the sanction lists of the UNSC, the EU, or the United States. It is
strictly forbidden, or there are serious restrictions, to deal with these
listed persons and companies. A famous example is the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of Iran's armed forces with
extensive commercial and banking activities. It is often rather difficult
to ascertain who the owner of a given Iranian company
is... Moreover, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) still
considers Iran a country that supports terrorism. Therefore, financial
institutions have to pay special attention to business relationships and
transactions with Iranian companies to avoid being accused of money
laundering or breaching anti-terrorism laws. The willingness of the
Iranian government to abide by its commitments under the JCPOA is also uncertain... it
appears that there is still a chance that sanctions will apply to
contracts signed prior to "snap back"... While it is true
that many of the sanctions imposed by the EU and United States have been
lifted, significant U.S. sanctions still remain in place. And US
sanctions are characterized by a lack of clarity. This constrains a safe
conduct of business. It should also be remembered that other countries,
such as Australia, Canada, and Japan still have sanctions against Iran in
place. This means that a large-scale return to full trade with Iran is
still a long way off. It will take some time before trade with Iran can
be conducted safely and smoothly." http://t.uani.com/2aHkbjL
John E. Bradley in National Law Review: "Although
touted by the State Department as the 'type of permissible business
activity envisioned' by the JCPOA,9 the Boeing-Iran Air deal has not been
uniformly welcomed in the United States as a JCPOA success story. Almost
as soon as it was announced, the deal was denounced by various think
tanks and political leaders who were previously on record as opposing the
JCPOA... At this time it remains to be seen whether Congressional
blocking efforts will be successful or whether they will survive
Presidential veto. However, given the difficult political and legal
environment through which the deal must inevitably travel, Boeing will be
forced to walk the line between the permissible and impermissible, and
the certain and uncertain, even if the deal is eventually
approved. For starters, unlike Cuba, Iran remains a State Sponsor of
Terrorism in the eyes of the United States government,16 and this fact
sticks out like a sore thumb since the designation carries with it
enhanced sanctions and controls over dual use items such as commercial
aircraft. Optically, it does seem strange that a State Sponsor of
Terrorism, such as Iran, should benefit from a favorable licensing policy
involving commercial aircraft. Indeed, when asked whether the United
States had ever authorized aircraft sales to a State Sponsor of
Terrorism, State Department spokesman John Kirby said that he was not
aware of any precedent. Second, in the complex alignment of nations,
non-state actors, factions and interests in the Middle East, Iran very
much remains an adversary of the United States and its allies,
principally Israel. Third, the JCPOA left in place all U.S. legal
authorities, non-nuclear sanctions, embargoes and export controls involving
Iran, other than those specifically addressed by the JCPOA...
Accordingly, the Boeing-Iran Air deal will be surrounded on all sides by
non-terminated sanctions (as well as any newly imposed sanctions) that
will require skillful maneuvering.
Fourth... any specific license issued in connection with the
Boeing-Iran Air deal will include "appropriate conditions to ensure
that licensed activities do not involve, and no licensed aircraft, goods
or services are re-sold or re-transferred to, any person on [OFAC's list
of Specially Designated Nationals] (the SDN List)... if Iran Air gets
caught violating the terms and conditions under which a specific license
is issued, the United States could presumably undo the deal by revoking
any license previously issued to Boeing; depending on a number of
factors, including timing, such action could result in substantial
financial jeopardy to Boeing and other U.S. interests." http://t.uani.com/2aWXSnI
Sanctions Relief
Reuters: "The United States said on
Friday it would allow foreign airlines to fly U.S.-made aircraft to Iran,
providing greater assurance to aviation companies as Iran tries to
re-establish trade and business links following the lifting of
sanctions. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control on
Friday issued a license allowing U.S.-made planes to have 'temporary
sojourn' in Iran, meaning airlines such as Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines,
or others flying frequently to Iran are expressly allowed to use U.S.-made
planes, or planes with U.S. parts, to fly there... The license
issued on Friday has no impact on the proposed Boeing
deal... Treasury outlined several conditions for its allowance,
including that the planes stay in Iran no longer than 72 hours at a time.
It also only covers fixed-wing aircraft rather than aircraft like
helicopters. Companies are also not allowed to store spare parts in Iran,
among other conditions." http://t.uani.com/2aHbNAC
CNNMoney: "State-run Iran Air signed
an agreement to buy 80 Boeing passenger airplanes [in June], the first
major deal between a U.S. company and Iran since sanctions were lifted
earlier this year. That followed a huge Iran Air deal for 118 aircraft
from Boeing (BA)'s European rival Airbus (EADSF) in January. The
companies and Iran say discussions about the sales continue. But internal
struggles in Iran, a lack of funding, and political opposition in the
United States have put the deals in doubt and are likely to limit the
size of the sales if they eventually go ahead. The U.S. Treasury has
issued a general license for aircraft sales to Iran but still needs to
license each individual deal. Republican lawmakers are trying to prevent
that from happening... the political opposition leaves only a slim
chance that Boeing's memorandum of understanding with Iran can be
converted into a firm contract before the U.S. presidential election in
November, experts say. Iran will also find it difficult to arrange
financing for the deals until the Treasury Department provides more
clarity for banks on their dealings with Tehran. U.S. restrictions
on banking remain in place, including a ban on transactions in U.S.
dollars, and banks are reluctant to finance any deals with Iran until
they have a much clearer idea about what they can and cannot do." http://t.uani.com/2aq18qO
Reuters: "Iran's Oil Minister said on
Monday the oil market was oversupplied but predicted balance between
demand and supply will be restored, Iranian state television reported on
Monday... Since a landmark nuclear deal was reached with major
powers in 2015 leading to lifting of sanctions, Iran has been planning to
raise its crude production to the pre-sanctions level of four million
barrels per day (bpd). To regain the production level, Iran has
sweetened the terms it offers on oil development contracts to draw the
interest of foreign investors. Iran needs $200 billion in foreign money
to reach its goal... The launch of Iran's new oil contracts, the
Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) has been postponed several times as
hardline rivals of pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani resisted any deal
that could end the buy-back system. Iran's top authority Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said last month that no new oil and gas
contracts for international companies will be awarded without necessary
reforms... Oil majors have said they would only go back to Iran if
it made major changes to the buy-back contracts of the 1990s, which
companies such as France's Total or Italy's Eni ) said made them no money
or even incurred losses. Under Iran's buy-back system foreign firms have
been banned from booking reserves or taking equity stakes in Iranian
companies." http://t.uani.com/2aJxqC0
Reuters: "Tekhnopromexport, part of
Russia's state industrial conglomerate Rostec, has become the first
Russian company to win a large, firm contract with Iran after the end of
Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic, the business daily Kommersant
writes... The company will build a thermal power plant with a
capacity of 1.4 gigawatts (1.4 billion watts) in the port city of Bandar
Abbas in about five years... The project is estimated at 1 billion
euros ($1.12 billion) and will be financed through a Russian export
loan... Kommersant cites analysts as saying that Tekhnopromexport
will find it hard to earn on this project and call it a largely political
one... Despite growing political ties between Moscow and Tehran,
economic cooperation between the two nations faces snags on a number of
fronts, including project financing... Iran insists that Russia
issue loans to fund joint projects which include Russian contractors...
Reuters has not verified this story and does not vouch for its
accuracy." http://t.uani.com/2aJhmzL
Foreign Affairs
Al Monitor: "As the recent coup attempt in
Turkey unfolded late on July 15, Iran - and in particular its foreign
minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif -was among the first to react. But what is
the reason for the immediate Iranian support for Erdogan, despite the
serious differences over the region and especially Syria? While the
bilateral trade volume has been declining in recent years, the big
picture is that economic exchanges have overall expanded since Erdogan
and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) first came into
office... The success of the attempted military coup would have
brought about three fundamental problems for Iran. First, it would
have created instability in a neighboring country, and particularly
triggered insecurity in Turkey's eastern Kurdish region. The latter would
have carried the risk of a spillover, potentially causing a crisis within
Iran's borders too. Second, for Iran there are no desirable
alternatives to the AKP... [none of which] have ever had a good or close
relationship with Iran... There is another salient reason for Iran's
backing of Erdogan: Prior to the July 15-16 coup attempt, the Turkish
president had decided to resume relations with Russia, effectively ending
the crisis with Moscow after having apologized to his Russian
counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for the shooting down of a Russian warplane
on the border with Syria. Given the latter, there has been the perception
of the possibility of greater Turkish movement on the Syrian crisis,
which could have a major impact since Syria has turned into the primary
dispute between Iran and Turkey." http://t.uani.com/2aEZkiu
Regional Destabilization
Washington Examiner: "The head of U.S. military
forces in the Middle East said Thursday he has seen no evidence that the
Iran nuclear deal has changed Tehran's support for terror networks in the
region... [Gen. Joseph] Votel then ran through a series of things Iran
has done since the deal was signed one year ago between Iran and six
world powers. Those include Iranian fast boats operating near U.S.
vessels in the Persian Gulf, the regime's support for Hezbollah in
Lebanon, President Bashar Assad in Syria and the Houthi network in
Yemen." http://t.uani.com/2aH9DCK
Haaretz: "Iranian media on Sunday denied
reports that an Iranian general was hurt in an attack by Israeli or rebel
forces while visiting Syria last week. Arab media outlets over the
weekend reported that Brig. Gen. Mohammad-Reza Naghdi, the commander of
the Basij paramilitary organization, was wounded during a highly publicized
visit to southern Syria, near the Israeli border. No Syrian, Iranian
or Israeli official has confirmed the reports." http://t.uani.com/2aWYNEI
Saudi-Iran Tensions
Bloomberg: "Saudi Aramco, the world's
largest oil exporter, lowered the pricing terms for Arab Light crude sold
to Asia by the most in 10 months, signaling Saudi Arabia has no plans to
back down while OPEC rival Iran tries to regain market share amid a
global oversupply. State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. said Sunday it
will sell cargoes of Arab Light in September at $1.10 a barrel below
Asia's regional benchmark. That is a pricing cut of $1.30 from August,
the biggest drop since November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The company was expected to lower the pricing by $1 a barrel, according
to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight refiners and
traders. Iran has boosted crude production 25 percent this year and
aims to reach an eight-year high for daily output of 4 million barrels by
the end of the year. Customers in Asia account for the largest share of
Iran's new sales, according to shipping data... Saudi Arabia has
responded by boosting its crude and refined products exports. 'The market
share battle between them and Iran is back on in a big way,' John
Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York, said... 'This is a
throwdown challenge that I'm sure the Iranians will match.'" http://t.uani.com/2aoKgWK
Domestic Politics
Al Monitor: "Tehran public prosecutor
Abbas Jaffar Dowlatabadi sat down with reporters and divulged new
information about the corruption cases that have rocked Iran in recent
weeks. On the arrests at Bank Mellat, Dowlatabadi said that it was
related to the "movement of 800 billion toman" (approximately
$258 million at today's exchange rate). Reiterating comments by the
judiciary, he added that four people in total have been arrested but a
number of other suspects are outside of the country. The Intelligence
Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently
arrested the former managing director of Bank Mellat, Ali Rasteghar
Sorkhei, and his deputy. IRGC commander Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jaffari
said that Rasteghar Sorkhei was linked to an "organized group of
banking corruption"... Jaffari had previously said 'other officials'
were involved, though it is not clear how deep into the administration the
charges will go. Conservative media have for months been trying to link
President Hassan Rouhani's brother and special advisor, Hossein
Fereydoun, to various corruption allegations. Just after Rasteghar
Sorkhei's removal at Bank Mellat and just before his arrest, Tasnim News
Agency wrote that Fereydoun and Rasteghar Sorkhei were long-time friends
and his appointment at Bank Mellat was at the urging of Fereydoun." http://t.uani.com/2aX1BSk
Opinion & Analysis
UANI
Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen in FDD: "Iran plans to manufacture and
install additional advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility in about
10 years, substantially boosting the country's uranium-enrichment
capability, according to a confidential document leaked last week by the
Associated Press... A number of unknowns remain regarding Iran's
enrichment capacities. One important factor is the total number of IR-2m
centrifuges - not just those dismantled from Natanz but those already
manufactured or ready to be assembled and installed. For the international
community to prevent an Iranian breakout, more detailed reporting from
the IAEA will be indispensable. Unfortunately, since the November 2013
interim agreement and especially since the start of this year, the IAEA
has further reduced the amount of qualitative and quantitative
information in its reports on Iran. In response, a group of Democratic
senators wrote to President Obama earlier this month urging him to make
more information available on the status of the JCPOA's implementation.
If, as stated, the administration believes the nuclear deal provides an
unprecedented level of monitoring and verification of the Islamic
Republic's nuclear program, it should favor greater transparency to prove
it." http://t.uani.com/2au5zku
UANI Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen in Tehran Times: "Implementation
[of the Iran nuclear deal] has started well, but I see some turbulences
during months to come. Therefore, it is essential that the IAEA reporting
is more detailed so that the member states can make their independent
conclusions on the implementation of the agreement." http://t.uani.com/2aUN21I
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment