Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Eye on Iran: Rouhani Struggles to Lift Iranians' Prosperity at His Own Risk






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Bloomberg: "The villas along the Caspian Sea at Mahmoudabad in northern Iran fill at weekends as well-off families drive up from Tehran. The lawns and flower beds that await them are tended by men like Morteza, who works 13-hour days starting at dawn for $510 a month. A gardener to the privileged, he says his income barely covers living expenses for his family of four, and explains why he supported Hassan Rouhani for the presidency in 2013. Come May's election, he'll be switching his vote. 'Rouhani didn't stand by the promises he made,' said Morteza, 35, who asked for his family name to be withheld. 'He said he would create jobs, invest in the provinces. But we're not feeling any change since the nuclear deal. I voted for him the first time around but won't in the next elections.' Frustration is rising in Iran as the jobs and better pay the government said would swiftly follow implementation of the July 2015 nuclear accord are yet to arrive. That's a problem for Rouhani as he prepares to contest for a second term, and a concern for the international community that sees him as the best hope for an Iran that's open for business and collaborative in foreign policy." http://t.uani.com/2aFOljz

Bloomberg: "Iran has gradually improved its offensive cyber abilities and developed more advanced ballistic missiles since signing an accord last year to curb its nuclear program, the U.S. Defense Department said. The Islamic Republic now has a 'substantial inventory of missiles capable of reaching targets throughout the region, including U.S. military bases and Israel,' according to an unclassified summary from a Pentagon assessment of Iran's military prowess. The annual report, mandated by Congress, is the first issued since the U.S. and five other world powers signed the accord with Iran in July last year to curtail its nuclear ambitions in return for ending sanctions. The full report, which includes classified details, was submitted May 31 to congressional defense committees. While the summary includes only one line on Iran's cyber capabilities, the findings echo a recent report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Michael Eisenstadt, who found that Iran's cyber operations have evolved 'from a low-tech means of lashing out at its enemies to a pillar of its national security concept.'" http://t.uani.com/2b39LIA

Bloomberg: "Iran expects foreign oil companies to sign deals valued at $25 billion over the next one to two years under the terms of a new contract model approved last week, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co. said. The state energy producer plans to tender contracts over a period of six months to a year to develop several oil and gas fields, the oil ministry's news service Shana reported Tuesday, citing Ali Kardor. NIOC has identified 34 foreign companies as suitable bidders, he said. NIOC is also seeking investments under existing models, he said. Iran approved the new contract model on Aug. 3 in a push to bring foreign investment and technology to rebuild its energy industry, the largest sector of the economy. The government hopes foreign companies will invest as much as $50 billion a year in Iran's oil industry. Major European oil companies such as Italy's Eni SpA and France's Total SA have expressed an interest in developing Iran's oil and gas fields. NIOC has identified 12 to 13 fields as a priority for the first round of investment, Kardor said, without naming the fields. Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh last week said Iran's priorities would be jointly owned oil and gas fields, and producing assets where recovery rates could be improved." http://t.uani.com/2biCDwZ

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program

Reuters: "Iranian security forces may have pressured nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, hanged last week for spying for the United States, to admit to crimes he did not commit, his mother said in an interview this week. Amiri leapt to the global spotlight in 2010 when he claimed first that U.S. agents had abducted him and then that he was in the United States of his own free will. The same year, he returned to Iran where he was welcomed as a hero but then detained and tried on charges that he divulged nuclear secrets. 'When I was saying goodbye to him before his execution, he told me not to be sad as he had done nothing wrong,' Marzieh Amiri told Reuters in a telephone interview. 'He asked me to tell everyone that he was innocent. He was saying his conscience was clear,' she said. Her son's closed-door trial was unfair and he was not properly represented, she said. She did not know the full name of the lawyer, who as a result could not be reached for comment. 'They should have held a public trial,' she said." http://t.uani.com/2aLi4KR

Congressional Action

The Hill: "Three Republican senators are demanding Secretary of State John Kerry hand over details on the $400 million cash payment made to Iran earlier this year. Republican Sens. Mark Kirk (Ill.), David Perdue (Ga.) and Johnny Isakson (Ga.) sent a letter to Kerry about the money, which opponents of a separate nuclear agreement are calling a ransom payment. 'We question the timing - concurrent with the release of five American hostages - as well as the method and lack of disclosure of the payment,' they wrote. 'We are concerned that this payment, along with the swap for seven Iranian prisoners detained in the U.S., has and will continue to encourage further hostage-taking of Americans by Iran.' The letter, which was sent Monday but released Tuesday, comes after The Wall Street Journal reported new details of the payment, made in January, including that it was made in cash... the three GOP senators outlined more than a dozen questions they want Kerry to answer about the payment, including how it was shipped, why more information was not given to lawmakers, and why the administration agreed to make the payment when Tehran still owes Americans money. They also want to know whether the payment was linked to the release of the American hostages, whether the money will be used to support terrorism, and whether administration violated sanctions by making the payment. 'This administration must uphold the letter and spirit of U.S. sanctions policy towards Iran and hold the government in Tehran accountable for its actions,' they added." http://t.uani.com/2aJYQCk

Washington Examiner: "Iranian officials increased their defense budget [by] 'exactly the same amount' as the recently-negotiated U.S. settlement payment, according to a trio of GOP senators who want President Obama's team to explain a shipment of cash to the country that was widely viewed as a ransom for several American hostages." http://t.uani.com/2b815F0

Sanctions Relief

Bloomberg: "India's state-run Chennai Petroleum Corp., in which Iran has a stake, plans to spend about 200 billion rupees ($3 billion) for a ninefold capacity boost at one of its refineries to quench the South Asian nation's increasing thirst for fuel. The unit of the nation's biggest refiner, Indian Oil Corp., seeks to expand capacity at the Nagapattinam plant in the southern state of Tamil Nadu to as much as 180,000 barrels a day from the current 20,000 barrels, according to Gautam Roy, the managing director of Chennai Petroleum. 'We will complete studying the expansion plan by early next year and then seek approval from the board,' he said in an interview in New Delhi. 'We have land available at the refinery site for expansion.' ... Indian Oil owns 51.9 percent of Chennai Petroleum, while Naftiran Intertrade Co., an affiliate of state-run National Iranian Oil Co., holds 15.4 percent." http://t.uani.com/2aRRcJP

Reuters: "Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina on Monday signed a memorandum of understanding to conduct preliminary studies on two Iranian oilfields, a step closer to the company's first investment in the Middle Eastern country's upstream sector. Under the agreement, Pertamina has six months to look into Iran's Ab-Teymor and Mansouri oilfields, which are located onshore and contain an estimated total reserves of more than 5 billion barrels. 'Iran is one of Pertamina's priorities. We're serious about investing in Iran's upstream oil and gas, which will help Iran to increase its oil production,' said Pertamina CEO Dwi Soetjipto in a statement... Pertamina also said it would import its first shipment of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) from Iran in September. Pertamina in May agreed to purchase 600,000 tonnes of LPG from state-owned marketer National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC)." http://t.uani.com/2beO6hT

Reuters: "Turkey's trade with Iran has increased 30 percent since the lifting of sanctions, Turkey's customs minister said Wednesday. Customs Minister Bulent Tufenkci also said Iranian and Turkish companies were working on joint investments in other countries. Tufenkci made the comments at an appearance in Ankara." http://t.uani.com/2aM0kh6

Terrorism

AFP: "A judge is seeking to revive an investigation into former President Cristina Fernandez over an alleged cover-up on behalf of Iranians suspected in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina's capital. Judge Claudio Bonadio asked a fellow judge, Daniel Rafecas, to turn over the case file and the latter consented, the state news agency Telam reported Tuesday. Rafecas had refused just days earlier to reopen the case against Fernandez, which he had closed in 2015. The case against Fernandez, a left-of-center politician who governed Argentina in 2007-2015, was compiled by the late prosecutor Alberto Nisman. He was found shot in the head 19 months ago in his apartment just hours before he was to present the case to Congress. His mysterious death remains unsolved. Nisman had alleged in a stunning accusation that Fernandez reached a secret deal with the Iranian government to cover up the role of several Iranian officials suspected in the bombing, which killed 85 people." http://t.uani.com/2bfxrwu

Saudi-Iran Tensions

Bloomberg: "Saudi Arabia and Iran are showing no let up in their market share war, just days after OPEC announced an informal meeting to discuss ways to stabilize falling prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced on Monday it will hold informal talks on the sidelines of a conference in the Algerian capital next month. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, told OPEC that it boosted oil output to a record 10.67 million barrels a day in July, two people with knowledge of the data said. Iran's output is up to 3.85 million barrels a day, Fars news agency reported, citing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. That's the highest since 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 'It only gives one signal to the markets that the Saudis are not here to scale back, especially in the face of Iranians bringing more oil to the market,' Abhishek Deshpande, an analyst at Natixis SA in London, said in a Bloomberg television interview. 'I doubt there's going to be any concrete agreement despite there being talks.'" http://t.uani.com/2b82co2

Human Rights

Reuters: "British Prime Minister Theresa May raised concerns on Tuesday with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani over several cases involving dual British-Iranian nationals, including imprisoned aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, her office said. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 37, who was detained in early April as she tried to leave Iran after a visit with her two-year-old daughter, is accused by Iran's Revolutionary Guards of trying to overthrow the Iranian government. Her husband, Richard Ratcliffe, has dismissed the Revolutionary Guards' accusation. During a telephone call, May, who took office last month after Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union, and Rouhani agreed their two countries should seek to advance their relationship. 'The prime minister raised concerns about a number of consular cases involving dual nationals, including that of Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, and stressed the importance of resolving these cases as we worked to strengthen our diplomatic relationship,' a spokeswoman for May's office said." http://t.uani.com/2biC1aq

Reuters: "The son of Iran's deposed shah has appealed to Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to intervene to help an Iranian activist jailed in Italy, saying he risks execution if he is extradited. Reza Pahlavi, whose late father was toppled by the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, wrote to Renzi on Monday, two days after Mehdi Khosravi was arrested in a hotel in Lecco, near Lake Como in Italy's Alpine north. Lecco police said in a statement they had carried out an international arrest warrant issued by the Iranian government which aimed to have the 37-year-old extradited 'for the crime of corruption'. Pahlavi posted the letter, written from his Paris office and addressed to Renzi personally, on a Twitter account where he describes himself as an 'advocate of secularism and parliamentary democracy in Iran'. 'Any attempt to force Mr Khosravi's return to Iran will lead to his incarceration, torture and possible conviction and execution as a political and human rights opposer of the regime,' the letter said. Pahlavi said Khosravi had been living in Britain as a political refugee since fleeing the Islamic Republic shortly after 'the 2009 demonstrations and uprising' surrounding disputed elections." http://t.uani.com/2aLtTDH

Amnesty: "Iranian authorities have intensified their repression of women's rights activists in the country in the first half of this year, carrying out a series of harsh interrogations and increasingly likening any collective initiative relating to women's rights to criminal activity, Amnesty International said today. The organization's research reveals that since January 2016 more than a dozen women's rights activists in Tehran have been summoned for long, intensive interrogations by the Revolutionary Guards, and threatened with imprisonment on national security-related charges. Many had been involved in a campaign launched in October 2015, which advocated for increased representation of women in Iran's February 2016 parliamentary election. 'It is utterly shameful that the Iranian authorities are treating peaceful activists who seek women's equal participation in decision-making bodies as enemies of the state. Speaking up for women's equality is not a crime. We are calling for an immediate end to this heightened harassment and intimidation, which is yet another blow for women's rights in Iran,' said Magdalena Mughrabi, Interim Deputy Middle East and North Africa Programme Director at Amnesty International." http://t.uani.com/2b3dMg9

FP: "The email arrived on the afternoon of March 9, 2016, and it appeared to bring news from an exile's most feared bureaucracy: the U.S. immigration service. 'You received this email because you do not have a Permanent Residence, your Permanent Residence Status needs to be adjusted or you need to renew/replace your Permanent Residence Card,' the email read. Sent from a dhs.gov mailing address, containing links to the relevant forms, and ending with a cheerful sign-off - 'With Best Regards' - the email had the look of a legitimate piece of correspondence from the U.S. government. It wasn't: The email had actually been sent from a hacker likely working on behalf of the Iranian government. The links to the requested forms contained malware designed to spy on its recipients - a human rights activist and likely others in the Iranian diaspora - on behalf of Tehran. The email wasn't an isolated attack against a potential dissident. Tehran is increasingly turning the tools of computer espionage against both exiles abroad and potential dissidents at home. Western researchers have found evidence that Iranian hackers have targeted the regime's perceived opponents by hacking into their computers to install spy software, mapped out the millions of Iranian users of the encrypted messaging service Telegram, and targeted journalists for espionage." http://t.uani.com/2aLrBEN

Domestic Politics

AFP: "Iran said on Tuesday it would auction off property owned by billionaire Babak Zanjani, who was sentenced to death for corruption earlier this year. A number of luxury villas and apartments, shops and other properties will be sold, reported the Mizan Online newspaper, which is close to the judiciary. Bidders must make their offers in sealed envelopes by August 20, it added. Zanjani, 41, was sentenced to death for fraud and other financial crimes in March after a lengthy trial during which he was accused of fraudulently pocketing $2.8 billion." http://t.uani.com/2aVjz73

Opinion & Analysis

Eli Lake in Bloomberg: "Since the beginning of his presidency, Barack Obama has expressed his wish for Iran to join the community of nations. Taken in the abstract, this is not objectionable. If Iran changes its behavior, Western countries should try to meet it half way, so the theory goes. But when understood in the particular, it is dangerous statecraft. Consider the recent fate of Mehdi Khosravi, an Iranian opposition figure who received refugee status in 2009 from the U.K. On Saturday, Khosravi was arrested by Italian police in Lecco at the request of a court in Tehran. If Iran was a normal nation, this would not be controversial. Countries fulfill extradition requests all the time. But Iran is more like Russia under Vladimir Putin, which also uses the extradition process to target its political opponents. Ask William Browder, the American investor whose lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, died in prison as he was investigating the theft of tax revenue. Last year, the Russians issued a 'red notice' with Interpol for Browder's arrest. On Monday, a press attaché at the Italian embassy in Washington sent me a notice from the Lecco police district. It said the authorities had executed Khosravi's 'international arrest warrant issued by the Tehran Court (Iran) for the crime of corruption for the purpose of extradition.' An Italian court is expected to hear the case in the coming weeks. The fact that it's gone this far is outrageous. Khosravi is not a well-known activist, but he was enough of a political opponent of the regime that the U.K. took him in after the 2009 purges that followed Iran's rigged presidential election. Today he works with a group headed by Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's deposed Shah, that advocates for free and fair elections in Iran. Khosravi's lawyer, Sahand Saber, told me there is nothing to the corruption charges. 'Mehdi today writes articles and blogs about democracy and the need for a separation of powers in Iran,' he said. Saber said he believes the arrest may represent an effort on the part of some Italian government officials to curry favor with the Iranians after last summer's nuclear deal. 'I think the Italian government wants to work economically with the regime,' he said. 'Maybe the Italian government has been asked to do this.' ... If Saber's theory is correct, it suggests another dark consequence of the Iran nuclear deal. When U.S. officials first sold the pact, they emphasized that only the sanctions against Iran's nuclear program would be lifted in exchange for Iranian concessions. If European countries are beginning to honor Iran's extradition requests, then this is another consequence of a diplomatic arrangement Obama insisted was a narrow nuclear one only a year ago." http://t.uani.com/2aVoFjr
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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