TOP STORIES
Amazon.com Inc. on
Friday disclosed Iranian business ties that may have violated U.S.
sanctions, warning that it may be penalized after a regulatory review
of the activities. The company said in a regulatory filing that from
2012 to 2016 it "processed and delivered orders of consumer
products for certain individuals and entities located outside Iran
covered by the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act
(ITRA)"... Amazon said Friday it sold a variety of consumer
products to individuals and unspecified groups controlled or owned by
the Iranian government The goods ranged from apparel to software to
pet products and cost $50 to about $2,400, according to the filing.
Amazon said it doesn't plan to sell to these accounts in the future.
Senior U.S.
officials have given assurances to the European Union that the Trump
administration is committed to the Iranian nuclear deal, the bloc's
foreign-policy chief said Friday. The EU's high representative in
charge of foreign policy, Federica Mogherini, speaking to reporters
after meeting with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and other senior
administration officials on Thursday, said the officials told her
they would uphold the nuclear deal... Ms. Mogherini, who also met
with Mr. Flynn and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump's son-in-law and senior
adviser, said the accord isn't a bilateral or multilateral agreement
but "belongs to the international community as a whole"
"For me it was extremely important to stress the need to stick
to the full implementation of the nuclear deal as we see is happening
now," she said "The deal is working." The State
Department declined to provide a readout of the meeting between Mr.
Tillerson and Ms. Mogherini.
Iranians on Friday
marked the anniversary of the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution with
nationwide celebrations and mass rallies that saw people step on
large U.S. flags laid out on the streets while President Hassan
Rouhani called the new American administration "a problem."
This year, the anniversary came against the backdrop of remarks by
President Donald Trump, who has already engaged in a war of words
with Iran's leadership and put Tehran "on notice" over its
recent ballistic missile test. At the Tehran rallies Friday,
demonstrators chanted traditional slogans against the United States
and Israel, and later, hundreds of thousands marched toward the
city's central Azadi Square, where Rouhani addressed the crowds,
telling them that Iran will strongly answer any threat from its
enemies.
U.S.-IRAN
RELATIONS
When he arrived at
Brown University in August 2015, it was the first time Babak
Hemmatian had ever left Iran... Hemmatian, 25, is a Ph.D student in
cognitive science, a beloved only son and a self-confessed nerd. But
he's also gay. In Iran, his sexuality could get him jailed or even
killed, so he kept it hidden. The visa that allowed him to travel to
the United States for graduate school was a ticket to a different
kind of life - an opportunity to be open about who he was... But now
it could all vanish. Under the executive order signed by U.S.
President Donald Trump, citizens of Iran and six other
majority-Muslim countries were barred from entering the United States
for at least 90 days. This includes people like Hemmatian who hold
visas to study or work here... Making matters worse, Hemmatian's
father is battling stage four colon cancer and has only a slim chance
of surviving until Hemmatian's graduation in two years. If the young
man travels home to see his father one last time, he may not be
allowed back to finish his degree.
Iranian official
Ali Akbar Velayati said US President Donald Trump will not risk
getting entangled with an "iron dam" like Iran, saying the
US would suffer an "unprecedented defeat" if he ever wanted
to chance his luck in a war on Iran.
SANCTIONS
RELIEF
Iran's supreme
leader said on Saturday the United States and Western powers are
regarded with suspicion in the Middle East because of their
interference, but that Sweden has a good name among Iranians and is
seen as a reputable economic partner.. [Ayatollah Khamenei said that]
at a meeting with visiting Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven...
During Lofven's visit, the two countries signed initial accords on
cooperation in areas including science and technology, higher
education and research, roads, telecommunications, technology, and
women and family.
Khamenei said many
agreements Iran had signed with foreign countries had not been
realised, however, and he expressed hope that would not also be the
case with Sweden... The Swedish prime minister told Swedish
journalists the subject of human rights was brought up. Among the
issues are the fate of Ahmadreza Djalali, a researcher at Swedish
medical university Karolinska Institutet who is imprisoned in Iran
and at risk of a death sentence, according to Amnesty International.
Lofven, however, gave no details on human rights issues, Swedish news
agency TT reported."
The Swedish
government has defended its decision to have its officials wear
headscarves during a trip to Iran, saying that failing to do so would
have broken the law. Trade Minister Ann Linde led a business team
last week and faced criticism for wearing a headscarf, or hijab.
Sweden says it has the world's first "feminist government".
A prominent Iranian women's rights activist and Swedish politicians
have criticised the decision. "It is ruinous to what is called a
feminist foreign policy" said Liberal party chief Jan Bjorklund,
who said Iran oppressed women through legislation. The Swedish
government should have requested that female members of the
delegation should not have been required to wear a headscarf, he
said, and that if the request were not granted any trade agreements
should have been signed in Sweden or a third country. But Ms Linde
told the Aftonbladet newspaper that she was not willing to break
Iranian law. She said that since the only other option would be to
send an all-male delegation, she was required to wear a headscarf.
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven was also in Iran and said he
raised human rights issues with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani...
Masih Alinejad, an Iranian journalist and activist, posted an image
of Swedish Deputy Prime Minister Isabella Lovin signing a climate
bill surrounded by female colleagues earlier this month next to one
of several female Swedish government officials wearing headscarves
and greeting Mr Rouhani. The image of Ms Lovin was widely seen as
mocking a picture of Donald Trump signing an anti-abortion executive
order surrounded by male aides and advisers. Women in the Swedish
government "should have condemned an equally unfair situation in
Iran," Ms Alinejad posted to My Stealthy Freedom, a popular
Facebook page she runs that encourages Iranian women to post pictures
of themselves without the hijab. "Because if you are feminists
and you care about equality then you should challenge inequality
everywhere," she told the BBC. "They must stand for their
own values."
Poland's second-biggest
oil refiner Lotos is interested in securing a long-term supply deal
with Iran once it completes a new coking unit at its Gdansk refinery
next year, its chief executive said. State-run Lotos wants to
diversify its imports of oil and gas away from Russia, its largest
supplier. It signed an agreement last year with National Iranian Oil
Company and the first tankers carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian
oil arrived in Poland in mid-August. It is now in talks to receive
another 2 million barrels.... Lotos could potentially agree a
long-term contract with Iran after it finishes construction of the
2.3-billion zloty ($570 million) coking unit at its Gdansk refinery
in 2018, he said.
Luxembourg's
Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn will hold key talks in Iran about
ways to improve relations and the latest regional and international
developments. Asselborn plans to meet Secretary of Iran's Supreme
National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani in Tehran on Monday.
The Luxembourgian foreign minister and the SNSC secretary will
exchange views about the development of bilateral cooperation,
particularly in the economic sector, after the implementation of the
2015 landmark nuclear agreement... They will also hold talks on
leading regional and international issues, especially the
developments in the Middle East.. Asselborn paid a visit to Tehran in
November 2015 and held talks with senior Iranian officials...
[Scania s]ays
renews public bus systems in Iran... Says has signed an agreement in
principle with Iranian province of Isfahan and Shahr-e atiyeh
investment company on delivery of 1,350 buses for public transport
for Isfahan and four other Iranian cities... Says he first of these
new buses will be in operation at the end of 2017.
Iran is already one
of truck and bus manufacturer Scania's biggest markets. Now the company's
CEO also wants to export Swedish working values to the Islamic
Republic.. Scania... was one of the companies that chose to remain in
the country during the period of economic sanctions, which led it
having a large part of the Iranian market for trucks and buses. The
company's competitors today are mainly Chinese manufacturers...
Scania's CEO Henrik Henriksson... visited Iran seven times last year
- more than any other country. But doing business with Iran remains
subject to risk, says the CEO. The remaining US sanctions, those
which are not subject to the nuclear agreement, affect financing
options. Most banks do not want to risk US fines and are biding their
time, reports TT. "It is no secret that it is difficult to do
business. Channels must be opened if the market is really to take
off," said Henriksson. The Scania boss believes that his firm
could double its exports, which are expected to reach 3 billion SEK
($336 million) this year, if financing was made easier.
MILITARY
MATTERS
One of the ironies
of the bitter relations between the Iran and the United States today
is that half a century ago they were the closest of allies. The
repressive, secular government of the shah had come to power thanks
to a CIA-orchestrated coup, and was lavished with then latest
American weaponry, including F-14 Tomcat fighters, AH-Cobra attack
helicopters and TOW antitank missiles. So when the CIA asked Iran if
it could conduct aerial spying flights into the Soviet Union, the response
was "How many bases will you need?" and "Can our
pilots ride backseat?" and, even, "Can we buy spy planes
from you to help out?"... With the overthrow of the shah in 1979
and the hostage crisis at the American embassy in Tehran, official
Iranian-American relations were suspended and the spying program was
discontinued. But relations between the Islamic revolutionary Iran
and the atheist Soviet Union only worsened as the latter continued to
supply weapons to Iraq, which invaded Iran in 1980... Unlike the
Soviet Union, Russia does not have any land borders with Iran, though
it can and does conduct trade directly via the Caspian Sea. The two
nations are now cooperating to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad
in the Syrian Civil War, though their objectives in that war-ravaged
country are not entirely in sync. At one point Moscow even bragged
that Tu-22M Backfire bombers were flying air strikes in Syria from
Iranian airbases. The new Trump administration simultaneously desires
warmer relations with Moscow while questioning the nuclear deal with
Tehran, which could complicate relations between all three countries.
For now, though, Iranian pilots no longer have cause to fear Moscow's
jets, particularly as they are flying some of their own-alongside a
large fleet of aging American aircraft acquired when the two
countries were partners in espionage.
An Iranian
semi-official news agency is reporting that a drone belonging to the
Iranian navy has crashed in the southern port town of Jask. The
Sunday report... said thick smoke rose from the crash site in
downtown Jask, some 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) southeast of the
capital Tehran... Jask, a fishing port, hosts an Iranian navy base in
the Sea of Oman.
TERRORISM
Iran has always
extended a hand to Saudi Arabia and countries of the region to
cooperate and maintain the stability of the region, Hezbollah's
deputy head Sheikh Naim Qassem said.
The leader of
Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group says the world will benefit from
having an "idiot" in the White House. Hassan Nasrallah said
in a speech Sunday that his group is much stronger than when it was
created in the early 1980s and should not be concerned about threats
from the West. Referring to U.S. President Donald Trump, Nasrallah
said "we are very optimistic that when an idiot settles in the
White House and boasts about his idiocy, this is the beginning of
relief for the oppressed around the world."
Iranian security
forces have arrested eight hardline Sunni Islamists suspected of
planning attacks to disrupt celebrations for Iran's Islamic
revolution in the past week, Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi
said... [he] said the eight were "Takfiri" foreigners, some
of whom were linked to a "Takfiri" leader who had been
killed in Iran... "Takfiri" is a word used by predominantly
Shi'ite Muslim Iran to refer to hardline, armed, Sunni Islamist
groups... Although Alavi did not identify which country Iran
suspected of guiding the suspects, Iranian officials often accuse
regional rival Saudi Arabia of backing ultrahardline Sunni militant
group Islamic State. Riyadh denies the charges and says Tehran
destabilises the region and sponsors terrorism, an accusation
rejected by Iran.
SYRIA
CONFLICT
Iran has again
allowed Russian planes to use its airspace during recent operations in
Syria, a senior Iranian security official was quoted as saying on
Saturday. In August, Russian aircraft for the first time used an
Iranian air base to conduct strikes in Syria. The Russian military
said its fighters had completed their tasks, but left open the
possibility of using the Hamadan base again if circumstances
warranted... It was not immediately clear if the recent missions were
linked to Russian air strikes on Thursday that accidentally killed
three Turkish soldiers during an operation against Islamic State in
Syria, according to the Turkish military.
IRAQ
CRISIS
Iraq won't take
part in any regional or international conflicts, Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadi told state TV on Saturday. The comment came after
Abadi had spoke in a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump
during which tensions with Iran were mentioned.
HUMAN
RIGHTS
The Italian
government expressed alarm Monday about the fate of an Iranian
academic detained in Tehran for nearly a year and reportedly
sentenced to death for espionage. Ahmadreza Djalali, who used to work
at the University of Eastern Piedmont, was arrested on April 25, 2016
when in the Iranian capital for a conference, according to Italian
media... Stressing his academic links, the ministry sought
information about Djalali's detention - he is reportedly in Tehran's
notorious Evin Prison - and asked "that he be quickly returned
to his family." Djalali's wife, who is living in Stockholm with
the couple's two children, told Corriere della Sera that he faced
"the death penalty for collaboration with enemy states."
DOMESTIC
POLITICS
Power supply has
been restored within hours of an outage in southwestern Iran that hit
crude oil production by 700,000 barrels on Saturday, and efforts are
underway to compensate for the output drop, a senior oil official
said. It was not immediately clear if oil exports would be affected
by the electricity outages, which have been frequent in the
oil-producing Khuzestan province... Iran produces about 3.7 million
barrels per day of crude oil, some 1.5 million bpd of which are used
at home.
OPINION
& ANALYSIS
Trump and Netanyahu
can make progress toward accomplishing several objectives at this
week's meeting. First, they should fashion a diplomatic strategy to
recreate the West's common political resolve to prevent the
ayatollahs from ever getting nuclear weapons. The emphasis should be
on "effective." Strong rhetoric, military maneuvering and
economic sanctions all have their place, but even the now-defunct
sanctions regime had not slowed down Iran's nuclear and missile
efforts. Putting a tough-minded Western coalition against Iran back
together will face heavy going, but it is both vital and urgent.
Second, and to that end, Israel and America must enhance their
intelligence-gathering capabilities and cooperation. We know already that
Iran has significantly shredded the Vienna deal's provisions
regarding heavy-water production and missile testing. Since the
ayatollahs' project to obtain deliverable nuclear weapons has been an
animating desire of their regime since the Islamic Revolution of
1979, we can safely assume they are still at it, likely violating
many other provisions of the Vienna deal... Moreover, we know that
Iran and North Korea, the two leading rogue states, have cooperated
for over 25 years on ballistic missiles, and there is compelling
anecdotal evidence they are similarly cooperating on nuclear matters.
Working with South Korea, Japan and others, America and Israel must
do far more to investigate potential linkages than in the past eight
years. Third, Trump and Netanyahu must address how to eradicate ISIS
without enhancing Iran's influence across the Middle East. Obama's
approach to ISIS, a slow-motion campaign that could take years to
reach its objectives, if ever, actually strengthens Tehran's hand in
the region along with its surrogates and allies, such as Hezbollah,
the Assad regime and the current Baghdad government. Even if ISIS is
ultimately defeated under Obama's approach, Iran will emerge the real
victor.
The Trump
Administration is correct that the U.S. should focus on the significant
threat posed by Iran's misbehavior in the Middle East. Luckily,
history provides a guide on how we can change that behavior. Some say
that the threat from Iran's malign behavior is overstated. Some say
that the malign behavior itself is overstated. Not so. Just
look at the facts... There is good news here, though. Iran has shown
at least three times since the 1979 Revolution that it is willing to
change strategic direction. Each time it has done so, the regime was
under intense pressure. This would suggest that it is possible to
achieve a similar strategic change in Iran's regional behavior -- if
the right pressure is brought to bear. In doing so, we should focus
on what hurts Iran, not on what makes us feel big and strong.
Big difference. We should again focus on raising the
costs to the Iranian economy for the purpose of creating domestic
political pressure on the regime. Sanctions that apply only to U.S.
companies and sanctions that apply only to specific Iranian
individuals or entities do little good. Sanctions need to be broad,
and they are most effective if they interfere with Iran's ability to
sell oil or interact with the international financial system.
The only way for sanctions to achieve our goals is for us to
work with our allies around the world. This means tending to our key
alliances, and encouraging our allies to broaden and deepen sanctions
every time the Iranians misbehave. For those who believe that this is
not possible, realize that the same was said when the Obama
Administration started working to put together the nuclear-related
sanctions. What not to do is as important as what to do.
Most importantly, we should not ignore Iran's behavior in the
region as successive administrations have done. We should also not threaten
Iran militarily because it will cost us the support of our allies -
who will fear that we are going down the Iraq road. Doing so will
strengthen the position of Iranian hardliners and solidify the
political position of the regime at home.
"I love Iran
and its people and that is the very reason why I urge the Swedish
government not to do business with the regime that ruins Iran and
systematically oppresses its people. Being a humanitarian superpower
comes with a responsibility to do the right thing, even when it is
neither economically or politically expedient, and to be a clear and
consistent voice for those who have none of their own."
Trade minister Ann
Linde and other members of Sweden's "first feminist government
in the world" walked past Iranian President Rouhani yesterday as
they covered their hair in compliance with Iran's compulsory hijab
law, despite Stockholm's promise to promote "a gender equality
perspective" internationally, and to adopt a "feminist
foreign policy" in which "equality between women and men is
a fundamental aim"... Linde "sees no conflict" between
her government's human rights policy and signing trade deals with an
oppressive dictatorship that tortures prisoners, persecutes gays, and
is a leading executioner of minors. In doing so, the Swedish female
politicians ignored the recent appeal by Iranian women's right
activist Masih Alinejad, who urged Europeans female politicians
"to stand for [their] own dignity" and refuse to wear the
hijab when visiting Iran.
While the Obama
administration sought to ignore and defuse such tensions with Iran,
the Trump administration appears eager to confront them.... In
contrast to the Obama administration, however, which actively
encouraged global investment in Iran, the Trump administration has
reversed course... While unilateral U.S. sanctions will not be
sufficient to moderate Iranian behavior, they are likely to trigger
an Iranian response, and a process of escalation... The Obama
administration was reluctant to vigorously counter Iran's regional
activities for fear of jeopardizing the nuclear deal; the Trump
administration has expressed no such concerns... The opportunities
for confrontation are multifold. The U.S. and Iran are on opposing
sides of numerous regional military and political disputes... In
contrast to the United States, and other democratic countries, the
Iranian regime's foreign-policy adventurism is far less constrained
by popular opinion... a U.S.-Iran escalation could potentially build
for years before the nuclear deal collapses... History has shown that
Iran only responds to pressure when it is encircled with a united
international front. Unilateral U.S pressure, however significant, is
insufficient if Tehran feels it has escape doors in Europe, Russia,
and Asia... What is the likelihood that Trump himself would authorize
military action against Iran's nuclear sites or military assets? One
of Trump's core beliefs, taught to him by his former lawyer Roy Cohn,
is "When attacked, hit back harder"... How will he react if
Iran continues to defy him despite his repeated taunts and tweets?
Trump's confrontational style is coupled with a core
national-security team that is universally cynical about Iran...
Among the important lessons of the 2015 nuclear deal is that two
policies often thought of as opposites-coercion and engagement-are in
fact complementary... In the aftermath of the nuclear deal, the Obama
administration only employed one aspect of this formula-engagement-to
try to compel Iran to reconsider its longtime regional policies. In
contrast to the enormous costs Tehran endured for its nuclear
intransigence, it has paid little penalty for being the chief
accomplice to a Syrian regime responsible for one of the greatest
humanitarian crises in modern history. While the Trump administration
seeks to counter Iran's regional policies, its strategy is missing
two essential ingredients: multilateralism and U.S. engagement.
Nearly all Iranian economic trade is with countries other than the
United States. For pressure to work it is essential that Washington
closely coordinate with Iran's largest economic and strategic
partners, namely China, Russia, Europe, India, and South Korea.
Trump's derisiveness toward U.S. allies and denunciations of a
nuclear deal most of the world deems necessary for global stability
will make it difficult to compel these countries to forsake their own
commercial and strategic interests with Iran to please Washington.
Despite all the
talk, Netanyahu's expectations for decisive steps against Iran by the
Trump administration should also be kept within realistic bounds.
Despite the militant tone and the promises to make America great
again, Trump has already managed in his just three weeks as president
to retreat from his aggressive statements on China and postpone
indefinitely the plans for moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. For
now, North Korea too provided a challenge for him last weekend when
it announced a ballistic missile test. Given these circumstances, the
question is whether Trump will decide to continue to confront the
Iranians at all, or even take any operative steps against them.
By all appearances,
the Donald Trump administration is preparing to attempt a historic
reconciliation with Russia. In part, the strategy is aimed at driving
a wedge into the long-running strategic partnership between Moscow
and Tehran. With the proper incentives, the thinking goes, it might
be possible to "flip" Russia. "There's daylight
between Russia and Iran, for sure," one foreign official
familiar with the White House's deliberations explained. "What's
unclear is what [Russian President Vladimir] Putin would demand in
return for weakening the alliance." The new president and his advisers
may soon find, however, that precipitating a Russian-Iranian split is
an exceedingly tall order. The past decade has provided ample proof
that the military, political, and economic bonds that Russia and the
Islamic Republic have built over the past quarter-century are
remarkably resilient. And today, there is reason to believe that the
strategic partnership between the two countries is stronger than ever.
But putting Iran
"on notice" doesn't have to mean taking military action against
Tehran, at least not yet. Experts say there is still a range of
economic and diplomatic options at Trump's disposal to deploy against
a regime that grew immensely stronger on Barack Obama's watch. Here
are four ways Trump could follow through on his pledge to put Iran
"on notice." 1. More non-nuclear sanctions... 2. Designate
the IRGC as a terrorist group... 3. Review previously-sanctioned
entities... 4. Strengthening military presence in the region.
The question should
not be whether the Trump administration should designate Iran's Islamic
Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) as terrorists, but why this was not
done long ago. The IRGC's primary objectives are rooted in combatting
the US and the West by conventional and non-conventional methods. Why
should proxies, offshoots and branches of the IRGC be designated
without holding to account the entity that is pulling the strings? If
we claimed that Daesh should be left alone because it might lash out
if we provoked it, we would rightly be laughed at. However, this is
the argument being used by opponents of designating the IRGC. Such
fears are rooted in the knowledge that the IRGC, directly or through
its proxies, will violently retaliate. This is precisely the kind of
entity that counter-terrorism legislation was written for. The IRGC
invented modern terrorism. During the 1980s, its proxies were the
first forces to exploit suicide bombings as a military tactic since
World War II. The mass coordinated attacks, which we today associate
with Daesh, were first perfected by the IRGC.
The Islamic Republic
responded to years of sanctions that undercut its ability to import
advanced weaponry and spare parts by creating a formidable indigenous
military industry. Even after most sanctions have been lifted as a
result of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), Iranian authorities have appeared to invest as much
if not more effort in their domestic arms industry than in simply
purchasing capabilities from abroad. If Iranian firms-in this case
affiliated with Khatam al-Anbia, the economic wing of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-can support manufacture of the
entire supply chain, then Iranian military officials need not worry
about grounding or docking planes and ships for want of replacement
parts. The excerpted article from an IRGC-affiliated publication
suggests that, rather than simply create depth on a few platforms,
the Iranian military is rapidly increasing Iranian capabilities on a
broad range of platforms. As Iran's area of operations has shifted
from the Persian Gulf to areas further afield-the northern Indian
Ocean, the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and perhaps even the
Mediterranean-it has taken pains to bolster its logistical
capabilities and reach. It is in this context that Iran's new
catamaran capability becomes important, if it works. As the excerpt
notes, it can carry troops and helicopters, enabling long range
operations in the ocean. Iran's new catamaran has many of the same
capabilities as the HSV-2, a catamaran that the United States Navy
Military Sealift Command leased in 2003... It is doubtful that the
Iranian navy could operate a ship with more efficiency or greater
capability than the US Navy. Still, any platform which would allow
Iran to carry its helicopters further afield will complicate the
operational environment among all the littoral states of the Middle
East.
A recent piece
published by The Economist is entitled: "Donald Trump is helping
Iran's radicals." It cites the Iranian Supreme Leader's
statement: "Thank you, Mr. Trump, for showing the true face of
America," adding that Mohammad Javad Zarif, "Iran's foreign
minister, has lost his smile. Iran has difficult days ahead."
The article concludes that the extremist wing within the Iranian
regime benefits from Trump's extremist political rhetoric and gives
this wing a chance to rise and strengthen its position at the expense
of the moderate wing. These fears seem logical and reasonable but
when applying them on the political reality within the Iranian
regime, we realize they are not true... During three decades, nothing
happened to prove that there's real competition between radicals and
moderates inside the ruling command. Major events rather confirmed
that the real governing figures were the radical ones while the
moderate ones were just frontmen. Hassan Rowhani, the current
president, and Zarif, his foreign minister, also represent the
moderate face and they succeeded at swaying the administration of
former president Barack Obama and convincing it that lifting
sanctions and encouraging Iran's openness are in the interest of
moderate figures, the region and the world. The nature of the regime
in Tehran is religious and it has a revolutionary ideology. It has a
political agenda that has not changed much since it attacked the
American embassy in Tehran and held diplomats hostage. Trump's
extremist rhetoric is the outcome of the disappointment in Washington
due to Iran's actions after signing the nuclear deal. Things will get
worse unless there is a strict international position against Iran's
adventures and unless Iran is forced to end the chaos which it funds
in the region and the world. Those who know how the Iranian regime
works cannot believe the excuses being made by Iran's friends and which
stipulate that being lenient with Iran can lead to positive things...
The same logic leads us to conclude that Iran will dominate through
using power via its proxies and militias across the region and
through encouraging and supporting the rebellious behavior of certain
local parties in neighboring countries. Iran has not changed much
since it announced it plans to export revolutions to the world. The
only change that happened is that its financial and military
situations improved a lot thanks to the nuclear deal it signed with
the West.
In only 244 words,
National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, a former director of the
Defense Intelligence Agency, listed a series of Iranian
transgressions, including funding global terrorism, flouting U.N.
resolutions on ballistic missile tests and attacking ships in
international waters. He could have also mentioned seizing American
sailors. Flynn ended with: "As of today, we are officially
putting Iran on notice"... The situation is particularly
precarious because after President Barack Obama's numerous empty
threats, the United States has scant credibility as an enforcer,
especially in the Middle East. It will take some time - and perhaps
the use of military force - for a Trump administration to be taken
more seriously... In real estate negotiations and his recent
campaign, Trump has seen unpredictability as a positive bargaining
tool. Sending Flynn out to read carefully from a prepared text - and
take no complicating questions - was a clear sign that Trump will
employ such strategic ambiguity and threats in diplomacy. Let Iran
imagine how bad the consequences might be, starting with renewed
sanctions. A problem with ambiguity, of course, is that a paranoid
opponent might overreact. More importantly, Trump must be prepared to
impose consequences on his "notice." And then be prepared
for the enemy's reaction to those consequences. Westerners have an
expression for someone who talks a lot and does little. They say he's
all hat and no cattle. Trump has that familiar red baseball cap. To
avoid earning the same international reputation as Obama, we'll soon
see whether the New Yorker has any cattle in his diplomatic herd.
Amid concerns about
more U.S. sanctions, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is striving to
beef up public confidence before May's presidential elections by
highlighting economic achievements like decreased inflation.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment