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TOP STORIES
Hundreds of thousands of Iranians rallied on Friday to
swear allegiance to the clerical establishment following U.S.
President Donald Trump's warning that he had put the Islamic Republic
"on notice", state TV reported... They carried "Death
to America" banners and effigies of Trump, while a military
police band played traditional Iranian revolutionary songs. State TV
showed footage of people stepping on Trump's picture in a central
Tehran street. Marchers carried the Iranian flag and banners saying: "Thanks
Mr. Trump for showing the real face of America." ... "Some
inexperienced figures in the region and America are threatening Iran
... They should know that the language of threats has never worked
with Iran," Rouhani told the crowd at Azadi Square. "Our
nation is vigilant and will make those threatening Iran regret it ...
They should learn to respect Iran and Iranians ... We will strongly
confront any war-mongering policies." The rallies were rife with
anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli sentiment. Some carried pictures of Trump,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and British Prime Minister
Theresa May captioned "Death to the Devil Triangle".
As soon as Iran's nuclear deal with world powers took
effect, Majid Zamani and his partners set up an investment boutique
with the aim of tapping into the flood of foreign business they hoped
would flow into the Islamic republic. Progress was initially sluggish
as overseas investors took a cautious approach to Iran, yet Mr
Zamani, a US-educated former World Bank consultant, remained
confident about Kian Capital Management's prospects. But the election
of Donald Trump and his bellicose rhetoric towards Iran has triggered
a surge of uncertainty and forced him and other Iranian businessmen
to recalibrate their plans. They no longer expect the foreign
investment to flow easily and instead are refocusing on their
domestic market. "The victory of Trump was like a sudden brake
on the wheels of a car which had started moving slowly," Mr
Zamani, Kian's chief executive, says. Mr Trump, who has described the
nuclear deal as one of the "worst ever," launched a string
of verbal attacks on Iran last week, saying it was "on
notice" and "playing with fire"... Tehran-based Kian
has already felt the impact. When it was set up a year ago, it hoped
to attract a foreign partner. But a Middle Eastern investor who was
on the cusp of buying a stake in the boutique pulled out as Mr
Trump's chances of winning the November election became clearer. The
firm has also been advising a foreign client on a deal to buy shares
worth hundreds of millions of dollars in an Iranian company that is
now in the balance. "I understand foreign investors. This is
like playing chess with a gorilla which does not follow any rules and
may eat you up at any moment," says the chief executive of a
households goods company.
The Trump administration's early responses to illicit
Iranian activities signal to Tehran that the nuclear deal is on life
support, a former top diplomat said Thursday. Tensions between the
Trump administration and Iran escalated after the country conducted a
ballistic missile launch in late January. Trump officials condemned
the test-fire as a violation of United Nations resolutions, warned
Tehran that it was "on notice," and imposed two dozen
sanctions on entities linked to the country's ballistic missile
program and support for terrorism. Former U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations John Bolton said that the administration's initial
moves send a message to Tehran that the nuclear deal is on the verge
of collapse. "I don't think it was accidental or just on the
spur of the moment that Mike Flynn made the comment about Iran being
'on notice,'" Bolton said. "Let me give you my
interpretation of what 'on notice' means. I think it means that the
[nuclear deal] is about one heartbeat away from disappearing."
"This is a one-day agreement that we're renewing day-by-day, and
it's that close to disappearing entirely," he said. Speaking
during an event hosted by the Jewish Institute for National Security
Affairs and United Against Nuclear Iran, Bolton said that the deal
could collapse if Iran backs out in response to punitive measures.
"If we designate the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist
organization, which should have happened about 10 years ago, maybe
the Iranians will throw up their arms and say, 'It's an outrage,
we're withdrawing from the agreement,'" he said.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) should
be designated as a foreign terrorist organization, a Republican
member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said on Thursday.
Colorado Senator Cory Gardner made the comment in response to a
question posed by The Algemeiner during a panel discussion on Capitol
Hill - organized by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) and the Jewish
Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) - about the future
of US policy on Iran. In his prepared remarks at the start of the
event, Gardner said President Donald Trump had the support of
Congress "to reject the failed policies of the past and begin
putting pressure on Iran to cease its illicit behavior." The
sanctions announced by the Treasury Department last Friday, Gardner
noted, were a "great start." "We must continue to
impose additional sanctions on Iran related to their illicit missile
tests, support for terrorism and human rights abuses," he said.
Furthermore, Gardner went on to say, "Every global company
should shun this regime as a matter of decent business
practices."
United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI) co-hosted a panel
discussion with JINSA on Thursday afternoon to discuss US policy
towards Iran during the Trump Administration. Meeting on Capitol
Hill, the session featured Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO), former US
Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, former Senator Mark
Kirk (R-IL), and former Assistant Secretary of State for
International Security and Nonproliferation Stephen Rademaker. While
the Colorado legislator advocated for new sanctions at the
international body to condemn Tehran, Bolton noted,
"Diplomatically, it is very difficult to envision multilateral
sanctions being effective again in the short term." Therefore,
the former US envoy called for regime change to stop Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons. At the same time, Kirk called on the
President to declassify the agreement so Congress and the American
public can have a transparent conversation about the controversial
deal.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
President Hassan Rouhani said Thursday Iran's military
power was "purely defensive", after tensions with the
United States over its missile program and a nuclear deal soared
following Donald Trump's inauguration. "The Islamic Republic of
Iran has showed that it doesn't intend to interfere with the internal
affairs of other countries," Rouhani told foreign diplomats in
Tehran, according to the ISNA news agency. "Our military power
is purely defensive," he was quoted as saying. The comments from
Rouhani, a moderate expected to run for re-election later this year,
come after the war of words between Iran and the U.S. spiked
following Tehran's announcement of a ballistic missile test and
Trump's controversial travel ban. "At the current time, we must
not allow some to create an unhealthy climate by conjuring
illusions," Rouhani said, quoted by ISNA.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran marked its national holiday on Friday with
nationwide rallies with far less of the usual burning of United
States flags and other anti-American displays, in what seemed a move
calculated to avoid further inciting President Trump... With the
increase in tensions, many observers had expected Iranian leaders to
take aim at Mr. Trump during rallies celebrating the anniversary of
the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But on Friday, the stacks of posters
handed out by state organizations largely avoided mentions of Mr.
Trump Anti-American slogans, usually printed in English in the past
for the international news media to see, were mostly in Persian. Most
notably, there were no missiles on display, as had been customary in
previous years, to show off Iran's military capabilities. There
were examples of anti-American sentiment on view, however: A large
plastic copy of the American flag was rolled out at the main rally,
as was an Israeli flag, forcing those marching to walk over them. One
man handed out posters showing Mr. Trump being beaten in the face by
an arm with an Iranian flag around it. "Down with U.SA.,"
the accompanying text read. On social media, an image of an Iranian
carrying an effigy of Mr. Trump hanging from a rope made the rounds.
Another showed American and Israeli flags being burned. But given the
size of the rally in Tehran, the usual anti-Americanism was much less
noticeable than in previous years, one analyst noted.
BUSINESS RISK
Iran and Malaysia signed a Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) on Wednesday to study Golshan and Ferdowsi gas fields for a
period of seven months. The MoU was signed between Deputy Managing
Director of the National Iranian Oil Company for Development and
Engineering Affairs Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, and Head of the
Managerial Department of Malaysia's Bukhary International Ventures
(BIV) Shamsul Zahar Abas. The Iranian side provided the meeting with
a report on Golshan and Ferdowsi fields and representatives of the
two countries underlined expansion of mutual cooperation.
Turkish discount retailer BIM says it is exploring
opportunities in Iran for possible opening of stores in a country
which has largely remained closed off for years under sanctions. The
supplier of basic food items and consumer goods says it is about to
be granted authorization to initiate marketing research studies to
determine opportunities and investment potential in Iran's retail
market.
Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS), the world's No.2 buyer of
liquefied natural gas (LNG), would be "interested" in
participating in U.S. shale gas projects, with such investment
curbing any potential trade pressure on South Korea from the U.S.
government... Lee also said that the company could eventually import
LNG from both the United States and Iran without so-called
'destination restrictions', or clauses in contracts that limit
possible buyers for any resales of the cargoes. "When new
suppliers enter, they cannot request destination restrictions ... we
can secure supplies that don't carry destination restrictions,"
he said. Iran, despite having some of the world's biggest natural gas
reserves, does not have LNG export facilities, so shipping its gas to
South Korea would require vast investment and would take many years
to develop.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
President Donald Trump's administration is weighing
whether to list Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist
organization, a decision that would have economic, political and geopolitical
implications because of the enormous might it wields. A move against
the Guards -- the official protector of the Islamic revolution --
would fit with Trump's push to get tough on Iran, which he accuses of
sponsoring U.S.-designated terrorist groups and violating United
Nations restrictions on its ballistic missile program. Iran, which
reached an agreement with six world powers including the U.S. in 2015
to curb its nuclear work, says its missile program is a sovereign
affair and doesn't contravene UN resolutions because it isn't aimed
at conveying atomic weapons. The guards control the ballistic missile
program.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Marine insurers across Europe are turning their backs
on Iranian risks amid fresh fears the Trump administration will look
to hit the country with renewed sanctions. For several years
insurance and reinsurance had been used as a sanctions weapon to
force the Iranian government to halt its nuclear programme. However,
while US firms are still banned from insuring Iranian oil exports
along with certain other risks that have a link to Iranian government
companies and officials, European underwriters have been able to
transact business. The relaxation of the sanctions had led to moves by
the insurance community to put in place new facilities. The biggest
of these was the decision by the International Group of P&I Clubs
to exclude US reinsurers from the group's reinsurance programme to
enable the clubs to write Iranian risks. However, there are growing
fears that President Donald Trump is set to take a hard line with
Iran amid his pledge to crack down on the threat of terrorism linked
to Islamic groups. As such there is an expectation that the Iranian
sanctions will be revisited and reinstated, creating a ban on
insurance and reinsurance. It has posed a significant headache for
the P&I Clubs which have been busy offering cover for Iranian
exports in the run-up to the annual 20 February renewal date.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaves
for his first White House visit with President Donald Trump, a key
goal will be curtailing Iran's financial and military support for
allies in the region that have targeted the Jewish state. Top of the
list is Hezbollah. Netanyahu will urge the U.S. to drive a wedge
between the Lebanese Shiite group and Iran, through harsh sanctions
that will make Tehran think twice about extending support, said
Israel Katz, intelligence minister and a member of Israel's Security
Cabinet. Hezbollah's military wing is considered a terrorist
organization by much of the West. The group also operates as a
political party that's deeply enmeshed in Lebanon's government and
society. "Hezbollah lives off money and advanced weaponry from
Iran," Katz said in an interview. "There need to be
paralyzing sanctions on Hezbollah with a very credible threat of
sanctions on Iran if it doesn't stop doing this." ... Netanyahu
may also discuss with Trump how to cope with the possibility that
Iran could one day pursue a nuclear bomb. Israel will seek to tighten
intelligence-sharing and forge a joint plan on what steps to take
when the deal ends and most limits on Iran's nuclear capabilities
expire, said Michael Oren, a deputy minister in the prime minister's
office. Iran has repeatedly denied that its nuclear program has a
military component. "Iran will soon be in a position to legally
develop their nuclear program," Oren said. "How do you
protect Israel from this deal when it expires? That's something
Netanyahu will want to discuss with Trump."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Donald Trump's bellicose rhetoric towards Iran now
appears likely to help keep President Hassan Rouhani in office for
another term, but will make it harder for the Iranian leader's team
of moderates to govern. With an election due in three months and a
hostile new administration in the White House, Iran's hardliners seem
to have backed off from trying to reclaim the presidency for their
faction, at least for now. No single candidate has emerged as a
potential hardline champion to challenge the relative moderate
Rouhani in the vote. Instead, officials speak of ideological rivals
uniting behind him as best suited to deal with a Trump presidency.
"To protect the Islamic Republic against foreign threats we need
to put aside our disputes and unite against our enemy," said a
senior official speaking on condition of anonymity like other figures
within Iran contacted for this story. "Under the current
circumstances, Rouhani seems the best option for the
establishment." Still, Rouhani's supporters worry that even
though hardliners no longer seem intent on removing him, they will
take advantage of confrontation with the Trump administration to
weaken the president at every turn. "To cement their grip in
power, hardliners will do whatever they can to provoke Trump. From
missile tests to fiery speeches," said a former senior official,
close to Rouhani. "By making Rouhani a lame-duck president, they
will try to prevent any change in the balance of power in Iran."
OPINION & ANALYSIS
The Trump administration is said to be considering
listing a powerful state actor in Iran as a terrorist organization.
Indeed, listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC,
would be unprecedented and would constitute the biggest escalatory
step by Washington against Tehran in years. There is reportedly
plenty of pushback already from senior U.S. intelligence and defense
officials against adding IRGC to the State Department's terrorism
list. Critics fear such a step would do more harm than good to U.S.
interests. Yet irrespective of the decision to officially designate
it or not, a review of the IRGC's actions has its merits. IRGC
leadership seizes every opportunity to flaunt its anti-American
ideological mission in words and in practice. It is explicit in its
core aim of forcing the United States out of the Middle East. For the
sake of American interests in the region, the United States has no
option but to first single out the IRGC before rolling back its
noxious influence... In other words, on key issues that matter most
to the United States -- from Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile
programs to its military interventions across the region -- it is the
words and actions of the IRGC leadership that Washington needs to
first consider as the Trump White House develops its Iran policy. And
simply hinting at possibly listing the IRGC as a terrorist
organization is an important step in the effort to influence the
shadowy organization's behavior. In that regard, it might be a good
idea to stop compartmentalizing America's Iran policy. The Obama
administration's excessive separation of Iranian hardliners in the
ranks of the IRGC from the moderates in the government of President
Hassan Rouhani only helped to muddle Washington's response when the
Revolutionary Guard's actions required swift reaction... There are
already signs that the IRGC bosses believe it is essential that they
reduce provocative actions against the United States, especially as
the Trump team formulates its Iran policy. As one top IRGC general,
Mohsen Rezaei, put it, "there are some sensitive days ahead
between Iran and the American generals."
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