Sunni
States' Military Spending Sprees Could Fall to Radical Islamists
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
February 7, 2017
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 Faced with an array
of developing threats to their stability and survival, Sunni Arab states
have gone on an unprecedented military spending spree, buying up some of
the very best capabilities the West has to offer. This development holds
the potential for danger should these states be overrun by radical
Islamists.
As long as the Sunni governments, guided by concerns over Iran, ISIS and
other extremist actors, remain firmly in power, possessing high quality
Western weapons in such large quantities will serve their goals of
defending themselves.
But should the Sunni countries disintegrate into failed states, or
undergo an Islamist revolution – an unfortunate yet distinct possibility in
the 21st century, chaotic Middle East - Israel and the West
could face an explosively dangerous development.
An organized Islamist rise to power would see the military forces of
such states come under the command of belligerent decision makers.
Alternatively, a failed state scenario would mean that military bases in
these countries could be looted, and deadly platforms taken over.
Either way, the scenario of jihadists seizing game-changing military
capabilities is real enough for Israel to acknowledge that it is planning
ahead for it as a necessary precaution
Outgoing Israel Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel spoke
explicitly of this danger on Jan. 24 at the Institute for National Security
Studies in Tel Aviv.
His air force must know how to act as a precise surgeon, Eshel said,
able to conduct pinpoint strikes based on fine intelligence. But it also
must be able to operate like a "big hammer" able to deal with
large-scale threats. In the tumultuous Middle East, he said, it seems
unreasonable to believe that the current situation will remain as it is.
"In five, 10, or 15 years, states can fall," he warned.
Eshel was referring to pragmatic Sunni states that, like Israel, are
deeply threatened by Iran's expanding radical Shi'ite axis, and by Salafi
jihadist Sunni groups that are bent on destroying all countries that do not
fit their vision of an extremist caliphate.
"Even if we have shared regional interests [with these Sunni
countries now], we do not know what will happen in the future. Western
military sales to these countries have reached $200 billion. This is state
of the art weaponry. It is not just about the quantity," Eshel said.
It is the Air Force's responsibility to assume that "something will
collapse."
Most of the Arab countries' spending spree has gone into their air
forces and surface-to-air missiles. The Israel Air Force must ensure it can
deal with these capabilities, he added, in the event of future jihadist
revolutions.
In the same week that Eshel spoke, the U.S. State Department announced the first weapons sales to Gulf states under
the Trump administration, pending approval by Congress.
The sales reportedly include $400 million worth of helicopter gunship
parts and air-to-air missiles to Kuwait, and $525 million for
intelligence balloons to Saudi Arabia. ISIS has already built and deployed
its own armed drones, according to reports, and if its goal of seizing
control of state assets were realized, it could try to use some of the
means on the battlefield.
Gulf Arab countries continue to break records in their rush to purchase
military hardware. As part of its bid to deter Iran and boost its ability
to hit the Islamic Republic's capital, Tehran, Saudi Arabia modernized its
missile arsenal in recent years, purchasing Chinese medium-range
surface-to-surface missiles from China, in a deal reportedly facilitated by the CIA.
More recently, the Saudis, who are leading a coalition against
Iran-backed Houthi Shi'ite rebels in Yemen, spent $179.1 billion on weapons
in 2016, and intend to spend $190 billion in 2017.
Saudi Arabia in recent years has replaced Russia as the third largest defense spender in
the world. Salafi jihadists would like nothing more than to topple the
Saudi royal court, which they see as a Western puppet, and take control of
Islam's holiest sites, Mecca and Medina.
Last September, the U.S. approved $7 billion worth of fighter jets (F-15s and
F-18s) to Kuwait and Qatar, and more than $1 billion in F-16 sales to
Bahrain.
Egypt, too, has joined the shopping rush, becoming the world's fourth largest defense importer in
2016, buying up arms from the U.S. and France, as well as submarines from
Germany.
Egypt, which is in a state of deep civil conflict with the Muslim
Brotherhood, is also fighting a stubborn ISIS jihadist insurgency in its
Sinai province. ISIS' terror campaign has claimed many lives among Egyptian
security forces, and threatens to spread to other areas of the country.
After the fall and disintegration of Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, the idea
that the Middle Eastern map will remain unaltered in the coming years is
far from certain.
Had Israel, according to international media reports, not bombed Syria's
nuclear weapons production facility in Deir Al-Zor in 2007, the area, now
filled with ISIS, could have seen nuclear weapons fall into the hands of
genocidal jihadists.
Should Sunni states begin their own nuclear programs in response to
Iran's own future nuclear efforts, the danger of atomic bombs falling into
Islamist hands would increase.
There is no alternative but to plan for such contingencies in the
current unpredictable regional environment, where today's rational states
could be replaced by sinister forces tomorrow.
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
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