Israel
Keeps a Wary Eye on Iranian Entrenchment as Syrian Border Crossing Reopens
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
October 24, 2018
|
|
|
|
Share:  
|
  Be the
first of your friends to like this.
The recent reopening of a border crossing between Israel and Syria holds
the hope of stability as the Syrian war draws to a close. But if Iran,
Hizballah, and allied radical Shi'ite militias have their way, Syria will
be hijacked and turned into a radical Iranian power projection base. Any
hopes for stability would then give way to destabilizing conflict,
terrorism, and new threats to Israel and Jordan.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced
last week that the Quneitra border crossing between Israel and Syria, shut
down in 2014, is back in operation.
Before the Syrian civil war's outbreak, members of the Golan Heights
Druze community – which identifies itself as Syrian, unlike the
Israeli-Druze community – used the crossing to attend family celebrations
in next-door Syria, export apples, and to study at Syrian universities.
The border crossing also served as a key access point for the United Nations
Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), tasked with trying to help keep the
border region peaceful, and help Israel and Syria maintain their 40-year
truce.
All of that fell apart during the bloody years of the Syrian war. The
Assad regime's sovereignty in southern Syria, like many other areas of the
country, collapsed, the UN fled, and armed groups overran the area.
Some parts of southern Syria came under the control of extremist Islamic
State-affiliated forces, while other areas were ruled by more moderate
Sunni groups. Other pockets of land were held by the Assad regime, with the
assistance of pro-regime militias that Iran helped to set up and arm.
Now, southern Syria is officially back under Assad's control, and the UN
is returning to the border. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has retaken the
area, and this has allowed Israel to reopen the Quneitra crossing. These
developments suggest a new stability, but the reality isn't as simple as
putting the chess pieces back in their original positions. The Syria of 2018
– or what is left of it – is not the country that it was before the war,
for it has been thoroughly infiltrated by Iran and its proxies.
Iran has played a major role in the war that led to an estimated 500,000
deaths, and which displaced half of all Syrians, most of them Sunnis. Now
that Iran's client, the Assad regime, has emerged as the victor, Tehran is
looking to 'cash in its chips,' and build itself a war machine in Syria.
One of Iran's goals is to set up a network of terrorist cells to attack
Israel from southern Syria. Such cells would be able to attack with border
bombs, shoulder-fired missiles, ballistic rockets, and cross-border raids.
They could aim for both Israeli military and civilian targets. It is a goal
that Iran has already tried to realize in the past, and failed. Iran has also tried to build missile bases,
drone bases, weapons production sites, and other installations throughout
Syria, an effort that was thwarted by Israel. Iran has flooded
Syria with militant Shi'ite militias that it recruited from across the
Middle East, trained, and armed, giving it access to its own army.
Throughout the war, Syria became an active Iranian military zone.
Assad's role was essentially reduced to granting Tehran permission to
further entrench itself. Assad had little choice in the matter, as the
Iranian assistance he received on the ground, combined with Russia's air
power, saved his regime from destruction.
Hizballah – Iran's forward division in Lebanon – remains active
throughout Syria as well. Although Hizballah has begun withdrawing forces
back to Lebanon, its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, recently signaled that some
of his personnel will be remaining in Syria. "No one can force us out
of Syria," Nasrallah said in September. "We will stay there
until further notice."
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), together with its
international operations unit, the Quds Force, are also staying put. They
have played a critical role in assisting the return of Assad's army to
southern Syria. The IRGC has planned operations and injected
Iranian-controlled militias into the SAA's offensive.
Israeli defense sources have confirmed the presence of embedded Shi'ite
militias among the returning SAA forces.
This year already provided a glimpse into Iran's future plans for the
region. In May, the Quds Force used a truck-mounted rocket launcher to fire
projectiles at Israel, following a string of reported air strikes against
Iranian bases in Syria.
"Numerous reports indicate that the Iranian forces, Hizballah, and
the Shi'ite militias participated in the fighting in southern Syria dressed
in Syrian army uniforms so as to disguise their presence there," the
Middle East Media Research Institute said
in a July report.
Russia's vow to keep Iranian forces 85 kilometers away from the
Israeli border does not appear to be a long-term arrangement on which
Israel can depend. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last Thursday that it was not up to Russia to
convince Iran to pull out of Syria.
U.S. lawmakers and security observers have expressed growing concern over Iran's plan of
entrenchment in Syria. The dangers posed by Iran projecting its radical
power onto Syria are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
The wider picture, then, is that Iran's takeover efforts continue to
cast a dark shadow over Syria's future, as well as the security and
stability of the wider region. Jordan is as threatened by the presence of
Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias on its borders as Israel, due to Iran's
hostile intentions toward this pragmatic Sunni kingdom, which maintains a
peace treaty with Israel, and which wishes to have no part in Tehran's
attempt to become a regional hegemon. Jordan has nothing to gain and much
to lose if Iran succeeds in turning the region into a staging ground of
extremist armed forces that answer to the Islamic Republic.
Jordan blocks the expansion of Iran's regional influence, and is
threatened by the presence of Iranian-backed Shi'ite militias in both Iraq
and Syria. Jordanian commentators have previously warned that the country is prepared to
take military action if necessary to push away Shi'ite militias from its
border with Syria.
Jordan's King Abdullah has, for his part, warned years ago about the formation of a Shi'ite
crescent in the Middle East.
Iran has not given up on its objective of building a war machine in
Syria, both through its own forces, and through its numerous terrorist
proxies.
As long as Iran remains committed to using Syria this way, Israel will
feel compelled to defend itself. The result is a region that is never far
from a potential escalation.
"Even today, Israel is acting against Iran in Syria, and we will
continue to try and push it back," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said on Oct. 15. Netanyahu spoke after concerns were
raised that Russia would seek to limit Israel's actions.
While the opening of the Quneitra crossing is a welcome and hopeful
step, which expresses an Israeli effort to promote stability in the area,
it remains far from clear whether Iran will allow Syria to enjoy such
stability.
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
Related Topics: Yaakov
Lappin, Syrian
civil war, IDF,
Hizballah,
Iran,
Quneitra
border crossing, Druze,
UNDOF,
proxy
armies, Hassan
Nasrallah, Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corp, Quds
Force, Syrian
Arab Army, Jordan,
King
Abdullah, Shi'ite
militias
|
Print
Send
RSS
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment