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TOP STORIES
Iran said Wednesday it will stop
complying with some of its commitments under the 2015 nuclear
deal, escalating tensions with the U.S. and moving closer to a
complete breakdown of the landmark accord. The decision comes a year
to the day of President Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear
agreement. Following its exit, the U.S. imposed harsh oil and banking
sanctions on Iran, crippling its economy and severely
limiting its biggest export, oil sales.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo scrapped a visit to
Germany on Tuesday to make an unannounced trip to Iraq, pressing
Iraqi leaders about what he called the increased dangers to Americans
there from Iran's forces and allies. Mr. Pompeo said he also used the
four-hour visit to push what he described as Iraq's need to avoid
dependence on neighboring Iran for power supplies including
electricity. The diversion to Iraq by Mr. Pompeo, who was in the
midst of a four-day European tour, added to what is an escalating
American effort to ostracize Iran, which the Trump administration has
sought to vilify as the chief destabilizing force in the Middle East.
The decision to send an aircraft carrier and a group of
Air Force bombers to the Middle East was based in part on
intelligence indications that Iran had moved short-range ballistic
missiles by boat in waters off its shores, an American official said
Tuesday. The movement, first reported by CNN, was among a range of
recent indications that Iran might be considering or preparing to
attack U.S. forces in the region, said the official, who spoke on
condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive intelligence.
UANI IN THE NEWS
...So who is 62-year-old Qassem Soleimani, the military
mastermind whom Secretary of State Mike Pompeo deems
equally as dangerous at ISIS leader Abu al-Baghdadi? "He is the
individual most responsible for the destabilization and inflammation
of sectarian tensions that Iran has sown throughout the Middle East.
Soleimani is begrudgingly considered by his adversaries to be a
brilliant strategist due to his pioneering of Iran's asymmetrical
warfare doctrine," said Jordan Steckler, a research analyst
with opposition group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran set a 60-day deadline for its nuclear deal
counterparts to abide by their commitments on oil and banking, saying
it will stop observing restrictions on uranium enrichment if they
don't. The move threatens the landmark 2015 accord meant to prevent
Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, and will further ratchet up
tensions with President Donald Trump's administration, which walked
away from the agreement a year ago.
Iran announced on Wednesday it was scaling back curbs to
its nuclear program under a 2015 deal with world powers, and
threatened to do more - including enriching uranium to a higher level
- if countries did not shield it from U.S. sanctions. A year
after Washington pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran, President
Hassan Rouhani unveiled measures that do not appear to violate the
deal's terms yet, but could do so in the future if Iran were to
persist on the course he set out.
China's foreign ministry said on Wednesday the 2015 Iran
nuclear agreement should be fully implemented and all sides have a
responsibility to ensure it happens. Foreign ministry spokesman
Geng Shuang made the remarks during a daily briefing. Earlier
on Wednesday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Iran will resume
high level enrichment of uranium if world powers did not protect its
interests against U.S. sanctions.
Iran has announced it will no longer fully comply with
the landmark nuclear deal it signed with the United States and five
other nations in 2015, following Washington's own reneging on the
agreement and increased diplomatic and military pressure on Tehran.
Iran's partial withdrawal from the deal, which took years of
negotiation, could be a potentially dangerous development in one of
the Middle East's most complex issues.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Iraq is close to signing a $53 billion, 30-year energy
agreement with Exxon Mobil and PetroChina, Prime Minister Adel Abdul
Mahdi said on Tuesday, denying any link between the mega-project and
U.S. permission for Iraq to do business with Iran. Iraq expects
to make $400 billion over the 30 years the deal will be in effect,
the prime minister said.
The United States said on Tuesday that European powers
are unlikely to live up to a pledge to prevent their conduit for
trade with Iran being used to launder money or finance terrorism,
raising the prospect of further U.S. sanctions. France, Britain
and Germany have set up the special purpose vehicle called Instex, a
conduit for barter-based trade with Iran, in an effort to protect at
least some of Iran's economy from sweeping U.S. sanctions and keep
alive a big-power nuclear deal that Washington is about to quit.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told
Russian news agency RIA on Tuesday that Iran was close to an oil sales
deal with the European Union, despite the sanctions which have been
re-imposed by the United States. "Iran and the EU are on
the brink of agreement, which, despite the return of unilateral
American sanctions, will make Iranian oil sales possible," he was
quoted as saying.
Brent oil held steady near $70 a barrel on Wednesday as
record Chinese imports and tighter global supplies eased concerns
about a deepening trade spat between the United States and
China. U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela as
well as supply cuts by OPEC and Russia also supported prices.
Brent crude futures were at $69.78 per barrel by 0902 GMT, down 10
cents or 0.14 percent. U.S. crude futures were at $61.47 per
barrel, up 7 cents or 0.1 percent.
U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry told CNBC on Tuesday
that Saudi Arabia is increasing its oil production to meet needs
arising from sanctions on Iran. "Our allies, Saudi Arabia
for instance, are increasing their production to meet these needs
relative to the Iran sanctions," Perry said in an interview with
CNBC, adding that the message for U.S. allies around the world is to
not do business with Iran.
Iran's rial currency extended its fall on Tuesday,
hovering around a seven-month low against the U.S. dollar, foreign
exchange websites said, as tensions rose and Washington said it was
sending an aircraft carrier and bombers to the region. The rial
plunged to 154,000 to the dollar on the unofficial market on Tuesday,
compared to 150,500 rials on Monday, the currency's lowest value
since early October 2018, according to Bonbast.com.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
In response to Iran's increasingly bellicose foreign
policy, which extends from military operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan to civil war in Yemen, terrorist attacks on regional
American allies to supporting Hamas in dropping 600 rockets on Israel
this week, the Trump administration has squeezed the Iranian economy.
Team Trump first exited Obama-Biden-Kerry's stillborn nuclear deal,
which gave the West a deadened, one-sided, unenforceable promise to
end nuclear research - which Iran did not do - in exchange for
planeloads of cash. That was a year ago.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described Iran as a
growing regional threat during an unannounced visit to Iraq, where he
underscored U.S. warnings to Tehran while offering support to allied
officials in Baghdad. Tuesday's visit came days after the Pentagon assigned
an aircraft carrier group and U.S. bombers to the region, citing
intelligence that officials said shows Iran or its proxies were
planning attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and possibly Syria,
Kuwait and near Yemen.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an unannounced
visit to Baghdad on Tuesday and met Iraq's prime minister and other
top officials to discuss the safety of Americans in Iraq and explain
U.S. security concerns amid rising Iranian activity. The visit
came two days after U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said
the United States was deploying the aircraft carrier USS Abraham
Lincoln and a bomber task force to the region because of a
"credible threat by Iranian regime forces".
Iran on Wednesday will announce its suspended conformity
with the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement. This reflects Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei's embrace of a more adversarial foreign policy.
The signs are clear. Supreme Leader Khamenei offered a thinly veiled pledge on
Monday to escalate against the U.S. As Khamenei put it, "If God
assists a nation but they fail to appreciate it, they will be
slapped. Today there is no option but to stand against the devils,
tyrannies and disbelievers."
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
The U.S. military said on Tuesday that B-52 bombers will
be part of additional forces being sent to the Middle East to counter
what the Trump administration says are "clear indications"
of threats from Iran to U.S. forces there. White House national
security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday that the United States
was deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the
Middle East. Captain Bill Urban, a spokesman for U.S. Central
Command, said that the bomber task force would consist of B-52
bombers.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's
appearance over the weekend on CBS's Face the Nation showed him
trying to convince someone - his minders at home, perhaps - that Iran
is a moderate, trustworthy, and terror-fighting country. The
designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a
terror organization and the end of oil waivers, he said, would
"show the Iranian people that the US is not worthy of being a
negotiating partner" and the Trump administration is
"squeezing the Iranian people, not the government."
Videos published on social media in recent days showing
children dancing to the music of a famous pop star in a few schools
in Iran has outraged conservatives. Sasy Mankan is a pop singer who
left Iran a decade ago and resides in the United States, but his
music was played during some school events and students began dancing
to the tune of his popular song "Gentleman."
Iran's radical regime is stepping up its efforts to
prevent the spread of Christianity within its borders. Earlier this
month, the Islamic Republic's Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud
Alavi disclosed publicly that his agency had deployed operatives and assets
to counter "advocates of Christianity" active throughout
the country. The ministry is also increasing its efforts to
intimidate prospective converts, and has "summoned"
individuals who have expressed an interest in learning more about the
Christian faith for invasive interviews and intimidating
interrogations.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weaponry,
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday, reiterating a
long-held Israeli position after Tehran announced it was scaling back
some of its commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal. "This morning,
on my way here, I heard that Iran intends to pursue its nuclear
program," Netanyahu said in a speech marking Israel's Memorial
Day.
A leader of the Islamic Jihad said in a televised
interview that he expects war with Israel to break out by next
summer. Speaking to Al Mayadeen, a Lebanese news channel, on Tuesday
night, Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziad al-Nahala described the
most recent escalation against Israel as "just preparation for
the greater battle."
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