|
TOP STORIES
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Thursday threatened a
"swift and decisive" US response to any attack by Iran, in
the latest of a series of escalating statements and actions.
"The regime in Tehran should understand that any attacks by them
or their proxies of any identity against US interests or citizens
will be answered with a swift and decisive US response," Pompeo
said in a statement. "Our restraint to this point should not be
mistaken by Iran for a lack of resolve," he said.
As the leaders of an organization called United Against
Nuclear Iran, we are grateful for the bold change in America's policy
toward Iran that the Trump administration has implemented. By
withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -
commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal - last year,
designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign
Terrorist Organization this year, and steadily increasing U.S.
sanctions to weaken Iran's ability to perpetuate terror, Washington
is leading with clarity and resolve.
European governments rejected Iran's 60-day ultimatum to
help it circumvent U.S. sanctions, saying Thursday they viewed
Tehran's threat to abandon some of its commitments under the 2015
nuclear deal with great concern. The ultimatum leaves Europe with few
options to save the accord, given that its monthslong
efforts to ease U.S. sanctions on Iran have largely come to
nothing.
UANI IN THE NEWS
On May 5, 1979, Iran's new government founded the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Almost from the beginning,
the IRGC had a built-in malleability-one enshrined in Iran's
constitution. Pursuant to Article 150, the IRGC is "to be
maintained so that it may continue in its role of guarding the
revolution and its achievements. The scope of the duties of this corps...
[is] to be determined by law with emphasis on brotherly cooperation
and harmony." Thus the IRGC was birthed with vagueness and
versatility. Forty years later, this structural adaptability has
resulted in a mixed record for the organization
When asked in January if there has to be a regime change
in Tehran, Pompeo replied, "Nope. What there needs to be is
behavior that is like a normal country. These are real threats and
what we're demanding from the Islamic Republic of Iran is very
simple: don't build nuclear weapons, don't continue your nuclear
programs, cease the terror campaign, stop assassination efforts,
behave like a normal country." "Ultimately this is just to
send a message that we won't tolerate these attacks and I think that
it'll end up deterring any such actions," said Jordan Steckler,
a research analyst for the group, United Against Nuclear Iran.
Jordan Steckler is a research analyst for the group,
United Against Nuclear Iran. "There's been some new intel that
Iran had greenlit some of its proxies to possibly begin targeting
American military assets and personnel overseas."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
On Wednesday, one year after the U.S. announcement
of withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) and the resumption of sanctions, Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani announced that Iran would reduce its commitments
but would not withdraw from the nuclear deal. Iran's response was
carefully calibrated and demonstrated considerable restraint.
Highlighting Iran's continued commitment to the deal, Rouhani stated
that Iran would give remaining parties to the deal 60 days to uphold
their end of the bargain before Iran would be forced to walk away.
In the year since the United States withdrew from the
nuclear agreement with Iran, that country has practiced what its
president, Hassan Rouhani, has described as "strategic
patience." But now Iran seems to be giving up on that. On
Wednesday, Mr. Rouhani announced that Iran would stop adhering to
some of the deal's provisions. Iran's goal, though, is not to find a
quick exit - or any exit at all - from the deal, but to signal to the
European countries that also signed it that they can no longer sit by
as the United States imposes sanctions and more generally piles
pressure on Tehran.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is hoping the world
will give him credit for restraint and patience. Iran, he says, has
abided by the terms of the nuclear deal it struck with six other
countries and the European Union for a full year after Donald Trump's
administration pulled out. Now he's issuing an ultimatum: The deal's
other signatories - notably, the Europeans - have 60 days to live up
to their end of the bargain, remove hindrances to the flow of foreign
investment into Iran, and ease the flow of oil out of it.
The European Union will defend the Iran nuclear accord
despite Tehran's decision to backtrack on its commitments in response
to U.S. sanctions, diplomats believe, but European powers expect it
to collapse without a deal to sell Iranian oil to China or
India. Britain, France and Germany, which signed the 2015 deal
along with the United States, China and Russia, are determined to
show they can compensate for last year's U.S. withdrawal from the
accord, protect trade and still prevent Tehran from developing a
nuclear bomb.
EU countries should uphold their obligations in the
nuclear deal with Iran and normalise economic ties despite U.S.
sanctions, its foreign minister said on Thursday, in reaction to an
EU statement that asked Tehran to remain committed to the accord. "Instead
of demanding that Iran unilaterally abide by a multilateral accord,
the EU should uphold obligations - including normalization of
economic ties," Mohammad Javad Zarif said on his Twitter
account.
A year ago, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from
the Iran nuclear deal on the grounds that he wanted a bigger, better
agreement. Criticizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
for its limited scope and scale, Trump has called for a deal that
would impose longer-lasting, more stringent restrictions on Iran's
nuclear work, while limiting Tehran's ballistic missile program and
stemming its interference in neighboring countries.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
U.S. sanctions have targeted Iran's government, its
paramilitary forces and the oil exports that fund them. Now they are
hitting its vital steel, aluminum, copper and iron industries. The
new sanctions, imposed as Tehran announced its partial withdrawal
from its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, seem to be moving ever
closer to directly affecting the country's 80 million people, rather
than the leadership. The metals industry is a major employer and a
rare bright spot for Iran's anemic economy.
Iran's oil shipments tumbled this month after the U.S.
ended sanctions waivers that allowed eight governments to
buy from the Persian Gulf country. So far, not a single ship has been
seen leaving Iran's oil terminals for foreign ports in tanker
tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. China, India, South Korea and
Japan were among those allowed to buy about 1 million barrels a day
of Iranian crude and condensate, a light form of oil extracted from
gas fields, until May 2.
U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell warned
companies that they could be blocked from the U.S. market if they do
business with Iran. "You can do as much business as you want in
Iran, but we have a say with regards to your visa," Grenell, who
has a history of exasperating his Berlin hosts, told Bild newspaper
in an interview. "Because if you do something, we're not going
to agree to let you enter our country."
OPEC is in the dark on the oil supply outlook for the
second half of this year, with Iranian and Russian outages looking
increasingly significant but Saudi Arabia reluctant to pump more due
to fears of a price crash, sources in the organization said. An
oil contamination forced Russia to halt flows along the Druzhba pipeline,
a key conduit for crude into Eastern Europe and Germany, in April.
The suspension left refiners scrambling to find supplies and its
duration is unclear.
U.S. sanctions on Iranian metals are against
international norms, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on
Thursday, warning that Washington would be responsible for Iran's
losses. "This U.S. measure is against the international
commitments of this regime... It is against international norms ...
The United States will be responsible for the caused losses,"
Abbas Mousavi was quoted as saying by the semi-official news agency
ISNA.
China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec Group) and China
National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the country's top state-owned
refiners, are skipping Iranian oil purchases for loading in May after
Washington ended sanction waivers to turn up pressure on Tehran,
three people with knowledge of the matter said. The United
States has not renewed any exemptions from sanctions on Iran, taking
a tougher line than expected on the expiry of the waivers.
Threats by IranOpens a New Window. to
shut down two of the world's most important oil transit routes are
creating one of the most serious geopolitical risks for oilOpens
a New Window. prices in decades. The threats, while they
seem a world away, may have a direct impact on your walletOpens
a New Window. . One year after President Trump withdrew from the
Iranian nuclear agreement and days after his
administration refused to extend the waiversOpens a New
Window. to buyers of Iranian oil, Iran
retaliated with threats against the United States and its
interests.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
The commander overseeing U.S. naval forces in the Middle
East told Reuters on Thursday that American intelligence showing a
threat from Iran will not prevent him from sending an aircraft
carrier through the vital Strait of Hormuz, if needed. Vice Admiral
Jim Malloy, commander of the U.S. Navy's Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet,
did not say whether he would send the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier
strike group into the strategic waterway off Iran, through which
passes a fifth of oil consumed globally.
The Trump administration doesn't want war with Iran,
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday, but he warned Tehran
of a "swift and decisive" US response to any attack. Iran
"has engaged in an escalating series of threatening actions and
statements in recent weeks," Pompeo said in a statement, echoing
Pentagon and unnamed US officials. He provided no specifics about the
nature or scope of that threat, but other US officials have said that
they've observed Iranian forces moving missiles around on boats.
Tanker-tracking firms believe Iran is once
again shipping crude oil to Syria, resuming the illicit trade as
tensions with Washington rise and the Islamic Republic faces
increasing international isolation. An Iranian delivery of approximately
one million barrels of crude was made into the Syrian port of Baniyas
during the first week of May, according to TankerTrackers.com and
ClipperData, two groups that follows oil vessels.
Top Trump administration national security officials
were planning to meet Thursday for discussions on mounting security
challenges posed by Iran and North Korea, according to administration
officials. The meeting comes as tensions have risen between Iran and
the U.S. over growing conflicts between their forces in the
Middle East and over Iran's plans for its nuclear program.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday urged Iran's
leadership to sit down and talk with him about giving up Tehran's
nuclear program and said he could not rule out a military
confrontation given the heightened tensions between the two
countries. At an impromptu news conference at the White House,
Trump declined to say what prompted him to deploy the USS Abraham
Lincoln carrier group to the region over what was described as
unspecified threats.
A deputy head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that
Tehran will not hold talks with its arch enemy the United States and
that Washington "will not dare launch military action against
us", the semi-official news agency Tasnim reported on Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday urged Iran's leadership to
sit down and talk with him about giving up Tehran's nuclear programme
and said he could not rule out a military confrontation given the
heightened tensions between the two countries.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Thursday
that threats from Iran had escalated in recent weeks and he warned
Tehran that any attacks on U.S. interests would prompt a quick
response from Washington. "The regime in Tehran should
understand that any attacks by them or their proxies of any identity
against U.S. interests or citizens will be answered with a swift and
decisive U.S. response," he said in a statement.
B-52 bombers ordered by the White House to deploy to the
Persian Gulf to counter unspecified threats from Iran have arrived at
a major American air base in Qatar, the U.S. Air Force acknowledged
Friday. Images released by the U.S. Air Force's Central Command show
B-52H Stratofortress bombers arriving at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
on Thursday night. Others landed at an undisclosed location Wednesday
in "southwest Asia," the Air Force said.
In a highly unusual move, national security adviser John
Bolton convened a meeting at CIA headquarters last week with the
Trump administration's top intelligence, diplomatic and military advisers
to discuss Iran, according to six current U.S. officials. The meeting
was held at 7 a.m. on Monday, April 29, and included CIA Director
Gina Haspel, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, five of the
officials said.
It is unclear what, if anything, Iran can do to induce
the United States and its regional allies to halt their escalating
war of attrition before it provokes all-out conflict. When Donald
Trump reneged on the UN-ratified nuclear agreement with Tehran
last year, he said he wanted a better deal. Iran must change its
behaviour, he said, and act like a "normal country". This
was always disingenuous. Iran's authoritarian and abusive rulers
certainly need to mend their ways.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranians have harshly criticized the country's deputy
foreign minister after he threatened to expel Afghan refugees from
Iran in retaliation for U.S. sanctions. The semi-official Tasnim news
agency on Thursday criticized Abbas Araghchi, saying: "We wish
you had not made the statement." Some reactions were stronger:
"Firing Araghchi is the minimum response to his huge
mistake," a prominent hard-line political activist, Ali Naderi
tweeted.
The Iranian currency continued its downward trend on
Thursday, May 9 after Iran announced its gradual reduction of
commitments under the nuclear agreement. Iran's rial was reported to
be trading at 156,500 to the U.S. dollar, down almost 10 percent
compared with a week ago. The big drop was on Tuesday as the news
about Iran's impending decision was announced.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
The parliamentary bloc of Lebanese terror group
Hezbollah has blasted the United States over new sanctions it imposed
on Iran, describing them as "unjustified." The bloc said in
a statement Thursday that the US move against Iran shows the Trump
administration's "tyrannical and dictatorial trend."
Hezbollah, which is backed and armed by Iran and sees the destruction
of Israel as its main mission, is represented in Lebanon's cabinet
and parliament and has been under US sanctions for many years.
James Jeffrey, the US Special Representative for Syria
Engagement and the Special Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat
ISIS, said that his country wanted a full Iranian withdrawal from
Syria and would not allow Iran to "fill the void" in the
northeast of the country. In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat,
Jeffrey said Washington would continue to pressure Damascus and its
allies through economic sanctions, a military presence in
northeastern Syria and a halt to Arab and Western normalization until
a "new political government is formed."
GULF STATES, YEMEN & IRAN
Houthi rebels are blocking UN access to an unmaintained
oil tanker described as a "floating bomb" off of Yemen's
Red Sea coast, which officials say is an environmental catastrophe
waiting to happen. The chief of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels is
demanding a share of revenue from the sale of about one million
barrels of oil aboard the FSO Safer.
A massive blast that killed 15 children and injured more
than 100 people in the residential Sawan neighborhood in Yemen's
capital, Sanaa, on April 7, was the result of an explosion in a
Houthi controlled warehouse and not a coalition strike, revealed
human rights organizations. Human Rights Watch and Mwatana for Human
Rights carried on Thursday a detailed report which pointed out that a
Houthi-controlled warehouse that stored volatile material near homes
and schools caught fire and detonated midday resulting in the
devastation and human toll.
IRAQ & IRAN
Iraq has substantially curtailed imports from Iran,
according to an economic daily published in Tehran. The report says
part of the restriction on Iranian imports stem from general bans on
a range of products, while part of it is due to targeted bans on Iranian
imports. The report did not specify what kind of products Iraq has
banned, but previously Baghdad had stopped Iranian cement imports.
Difficulty in payment system caused by U.S. sanctions could be a
major reason for the reduction.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has
declared that Iran would consider asking Afghan refugees to
leave the country if the United States continues
to apply economic pressure in the aftermath of
President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and promises to increase
economic sanctions on the country. Subsequent statements by Iranian
officials hinted that the Afghans would likely then look
toward Europe for refuge.
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment