Thursday, April 11, 2013

Eye on Iran: Failure of Nuclear Talks with Iran Jumpstarts Push in Congress for Tougher Sanctions








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AP: "The failure of negotiations between six world powers and Iran over its disputed nuclear program has jumpstarted the congressional push for even tougher sanctions aimed at crippling the economy in Tehran... The stalled negotiations - there were no plans for new talks - gave fresh impetus to bipartisan legislation in the House to impose new sanctions on Iran while Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., was putting together a package of penalties likely in the next week or so, according to congressional aides and sanctions experts. The penalties are certain to draw strong bipartisan support as lawmakers, fearful of Iran's ambitions and worried about its threat to Israel, have overwhelmingly embraced past sanctions legislation. The latest effort would mark the fifth time since June 2010 that Congress has slapped penalties on Iran. 'I'm concerned Tehran is only using talks as a delaying tactic - in the same way North Korea used a similar tactic to develop its nuclear arsenal,' Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. 'Rather, the bipartisan legislation I've introduced further increases economic pressure on Iranian leaders to give up their nuclear weapons program. Congress will continue to turn up the pressure; it is our best chance to succeed.' Royce and Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, the top Democrat on the committee, introduced legislation in February that would broaden sanctions on Iran by expanding the list of blacklisted Iranian companies and moving to cut off Tehran's access to the euro." http://t.uani.com/ZA685k

Reuters: "Iran said on Tuesday operations had begun at two uranium mines and a milling plant and that Western opposition would not slow its nuclear work, days after talks with world powers made no breakthrough. Iran opened the Saghand 1 and 2 mines in the central province of Yazd and the Shahid Rezaeinejad yellowcake plant in the town of Ardakan in the same region to mark the country's National Nuclear Technology Day, state news agency IRNA said. Yellowcake can be further processed into enriched uranium to make fuel for nuclear power plants, Iran's stated aim, or to provide material for atomic bombs if refined much more, which the West fears may be the Islamic Republic's ultimate goal... Western nations have 'tried their utmost to prevent Iran from going nuclear, but Iran has gone nuclear,' Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech at Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation on Tuesday. 'This nuclear technology and power and science has been institutionalized ... All the stages are in our control and every day that we go forward a new horizon opens up before the Iranian nation.'" http://t.uani.com/10JsCfq

WashPost: "The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said Monday that his agency cannot rule out the possibility that Iran was actively seeking nuclear weapons technology, citing intelligence on suspicious research by Iranian scientists that occurred as recently as a few years ago. Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said it is crucial that Iran come clean on its nuclear past, granting full access to Iranian facilities and documents as well as key scientists believed involved in the work... 'We have credible information that Iran continued its activities beyond 2003,' Amano told an audience of nuclear and arms-control experts at the annual Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. Officially, 'we do not know' whether the research remains active, he said." http://t.uani.com/10OIddS
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Nuclear Program

Reuters: "World powers believe there are enough grounds to keep talking to Iran about its disputed nuclear program, a senior Western diplomat said on Monday, even though the latest round of negotiations made little apparent progress. 'There is enough substance for these negotiations to continue,' the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters. 'I would not expect a breakdown.' At a meeting in the Kazakh city of Almaty on Friday and Saturday, the six nations - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - tried to persuade Iran to give up its most sensitive uranium-enrichment work to allay concerns that Tehran is seeking the means to make atom bombs. Iranian negotiators did not accept the offer - coupled with a pledge of modest relief from crippling economic sanctions - and the two sides failed to even agree to meet again." http://t.uani.com/12EVCq4

BBC:
"A 6.3 magnitude earthquake has struck in south-west Iran, not far from the country's only nuclear power station, the US Geological Survey (USGS) says. Initial reports on state media say three people have died... The USGS said the quake struck at 11:52 GMT at a depth of 10km (6.2 miles), some 90km from Bushehr city, near to the power plant... The Russian contractor which built the Bushehr plant says it has not been affected by the earthquake, says Russian news agency Interfax. Staff at the complex felt the jolts but continue to work as usual, while radiation levels have not changed, an unnamed Atomstroyexport official told Interfax." http://t.uani.com/151BT8o

Sanctions

Bloomberg:
"A group of U.S. lawmakers is proposing to intensify the economic pressure on Iran over its disputed nuclear program by drafting the harshest penalties to date on a nation whose income from oil exports has been cut in half by sanctions since 2011. A draft Senate bill, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News from a congressional office, would penalize foreign countries that do business with any Iranian entity controlled by the government. It also would bar Iran from using earnings from oil exports to purchase anything other than food and medicine. The draft measure, which is expected to be finalized and introduced this month, also would require the Islamic Republic to release political prisoners, respect the rights of women and minorities and move toward 'a free and democratically elected government' before Iranian government-controlled entities could be removed from the U.S. sanctions list... The draft Senate legislation, which would have to pass both houses of Congress and be signed by President Barack Obama, would target Iran's foreign exchange holdings by cutting off its access to hard currencies, including the euro, and restricting its use of money exchange houses. In an effort to stop Iran from evading existing sanctions on oil exports, the bill also would penalize companies that provide ship insurance and reinsurance for Iran and punish entities involved in vessel-to-vessel transfers of Iranian oil." http://t.uani.com/YasljT
  
Reuters: "Iran's April crude exports will rebound to above 1 million barrels per day (bpd), industry sources said on Friday, after falling in March to the lowest level seen since the West imposed sanctions to reduce the oil flow in 2012. U.S. and European Union sanctions aimed at choking the flow of oil money into Iran and forcing Tehran to negotiate curbing its disputed nuclear programme have cut around a million barrels per day from Iran's crude exports. Iran is expected to export 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in April, preliminary data obtained by Reuters showed, up from the 810,000 bpd that was scheduled to load in March and close to export levels of around 1.1 million bpd in February. The volumes are based on preliminary loading plans and final export volumes may vary." http://t.uani.com/10KTLis

Syrian Uprising


AFP: "Iraq on Tuesday grounded and inspected a second Iranian aircraft bound for Syria in as many days, but found only humanitarian material, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's spokesman said. The back-to-back searches come after Baghdad said last month it would step up such inspections, after US Secretary of State John Kerry publicly accused Iraq of turning a blind eye to Iranian flights which Washington says carry military equipment for the Damascus regime. 'Iraqi authorities inspected an Iranian cargo plane operated by the company Mahan Air, but only found humanitarian goods,' Maliki's spokesman Ali al-Mussawi told AFP. On Monday, a flight operated by the same private Iranian airline was stopped and searched, with inspectors finding only medical supplies... Iraq previously announced two inspections of aircraft, both in October. But the New York Times reported that Iran appeared to have been tipped off by Iraqi officials as to when searches would be conducted, helping Tehran avoid detection." http://t.uani.com/XpUNRF

Human Rights

Fox News: "The Iranian-American Christian pastor jailed in Iran for his faith again has been denied bail as he awaits proper medical treatment for serious injuries and internal bleeding sustained from brutal prison beatings, according to the family's attorneys. Saeed Abedini, the 32-year-old U.S. citizen imprisoned in Iran since September, purportedly was taken to an external hospital, but he was not admitted for treatment, according to sources close to the pastor who report that the medical specialist who was supposed to examine him was not in. Instead of seeing a different doctor, Abedini was returned to Evin Prison without receiving any medical treatment. 'This is yet another example of psychological abuse,' said Jordan Sekulow, executive director of the American Center for Law and Justice, the organization representing Abedini's U.S.-based family." http://t.uani.com/17oGcKl

Opinion & Analysis

WashPost Editorial: "The latest round of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program was, by all accounts, a disappointment. Tehran's negotiators did not spell out a full response to a proposal by the United States and five partners for limiting its enrichment of uranium, and what they did say revealed a wide gulf between the two sides. In essence, the international coalition is offering Iran a partial lifting of sanctions in exchange for a freeze on the production of medium-enriched uranium, while Iran wants a complete lifting of sanctions in exchange for token steps that would leave its nuclear work unfettered. The meetings left the diplomatic process in limbo; the Obama administration and its allies rightly refused Iranian requests to schedule further meetings. Yet for now, at least, there is no crisis: Neither Israel nor the United States is under pressure to consider immediate military action against Iran, and there is time to wait and see if Iran's position will soften following a presidential election scheduled for June. For that, proponents of diplomacy over war with Iran can thank a man they have often ridiculed or reviled: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Mr. Netanyahu's government is not a participant in the talks with Iran, of course; Iran won't parley with a nation it aspires to 'wipe off the map.' But the Israeli leader's explicit setting of a 'red line' for the Iranian nuclear program in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly in September appears to have accomplished what neither negotiations nor sanctions have yielded: concrete Iranian action to limit its enrichment... Mr. Netanyahu's red line is only a partial and temporary check on the Iranian threat. The ongoing installation of a new generation of faster centrifuges could soon make it obsolete by providing a new means for Iran to quickly produce bomb-grade uranium. But the lesson here is twofold: The credible threat of military action has to be part of any strategy for preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, and clear red lines can help create the 'time and space for diplomacy' that President Obama seeks. Mr. Obama, who last year stiffly resisted pressure from Mr. Netanyahu to spell out U.S. red lines, ought to reconsider." http://t.uani.com/11O9U90

Jonathan Adelman in CNN: "Despite the rhetoric of the Obama administration and tougher sanctions, hard realities suggest a likely American policy of not attacking Iran but seeking to contain it. For Iran, the benefits of nuclear weapons are significant: becoming the ninth member of the world's exclusive nuclear club, spurring nationalist ardor at home, potentially dominating the Middle East, enhancing its leadership of the world's neutralist bloc, offsetting the likely loss of their main Arab ally Syria and deterring an American attack. America's desire to stop Iran, meanwhile, is constrained by many factors: withdrawal of an aircraft carrier battle fleet from the Persian Gulf, $80 billion in Iranian hard currency reserves, opposition from Russia and China, foreign efforts to help Iran evade international sanctions, American war weariness, economic malaise, Congressional hyper partisanship and the Obama policy of leading from behind. Trying to contain a nuclear Iran avoids an unpopular military strike, regional war and harsher sanctions. And most appealing of all, containment succeeded for 40 years with the Soviet Union, culminating in its dissolution in 1991. There is only one critical problem with the alluring temptation of containment -the Islamic Republic of Iran is no Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was a global superpower, with a vast military-industrial complex and Red Army whose World War II victories helped defeat Nazi Germany. During the Cold War the Soviet Union had several thousand strategic nuclear weapons capable of destroying the United States. The Red Army dominated Eastern and much of Central Europe and threatened Western Europe. By contrast, Iran is a second rate military and economic power. It reactivated its nuclear program in 1984 and has still not exploded its first atomic bomb. In the 1980s, even after eight years, it could not defeat Iraq, a task that the United States accomplished in three weeks in 2003. With only several hundred atomic scientists, Iran relies heavily on foreign help for its nuclear project.  It possesses a modest missile force, weak army and no modern navy. Iran lags far behind Israel, with its strong air force and 100 to 200 atomic bombs, and NATO stalwart Turkey. Iran's $13,000 GNP/capita lags far behind the United States ($49,000), United Arab Emirates ($49,000) and Israel ($32,000). Second, Iran lacks Soviet global political influence and ideological clout. Moscow was the center of international communism that embraced one third of the world's population.  Iran's Islamic fundamentalism resonates only among 2 percent of the world's population (mostly 100+ million Shiites). It has few state allies (Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Iraq?) and only two non-state actors (Hezbollah and Hamas). Third, the Soviet Union was largely rational in its foreign policy. When the Berlin Blockade (1948), Cuban missile crisis (1962) and invasion of Afghanistan (1979) failed, it withdrew its forces. It maintained embassies in enemy countries and a hot line with Washington after 1962. Moscow conducted prolonged negotiations with the West that resulted in several treaties. Iran does not have embassies or hot lines with its 'enemies,' supports international terrorism, conducts cyber attacks on Western targets and often talks recklessly of destroying Israel. Fourth, the Soviet nuclear threat was remote, many thousands of miles away, and slowed by liquid fueled rockets that took hours to fire. Iranian rockets, on the other hand, are solid fuel and only hundreds of miles from their targets. Finally, there is the nature of leadership. The Soviet elite were dominated by secular college graduates, heavily engineers, who had a rational international perspective. The Iranian elite are dominated by radical mullahs with a limited world view. Containment of a nuclear power under any circumstances is a risky business. Containment even of the relatively rational Soviet Union almost led to a nuclear war over Cuba in 1962. Imagine what could happen in trying to contain an Iran lacking many of the rational aspects of the Soviet Union." http://t.uani.com/12Duwn5

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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