Eye on Iran: Powers and Iran Fail to End Nuclear Deadlock in Almaty

For continuing coverage follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.    Top Stories Reuters: "World powers and Iran failed again to end the deadlock in a decade-old dispute over Tehran's nuclear program in talks that ended in Kazakhstan on Saturday, prolonging a standoff that could yet spiral into a new Middle East war. No new talks were scheduled but big power negotiators, who earlier this year were insisting that time was running out, were at pains to say the diplomatic process would continue... With a presidential election due in Iran in June, scope for a breakthrough at the two-day meeting in Almaty was slim. European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the powers' chief negotiator, said long discussions had not bridged the differences between the two sides. 'It became clear that our positions remain far apart,' Ashton, who represents the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany in talks with Iran, told a news conference. In the meeting, the powers were asking Iran to suspend its most sensitive uranium-enrichment work in return for modest relief from international sanctions, an offer Iran did not accept. 'The Iranians indicated readiness to take some steps but they were small,' one Western diplomat said." http://t.uani.com/14464wf AFP: "Iran was asking for too much for too little in return during its nuclear negotiations with world powers that wound down Saturday in Kazakhstan, a senior US official said. 'It is fair to say that Iran is willing to take very limited steps on its nuclear programme while expecting very significant results in return,' the senior US official told reporters on condition of anonymity. 'They put forward some minimal ideas but expected a great return and a quite disproportionate return,' the US official said... The US official said these talks differed from four previous sessions held in the past two years because they were much more substantive and involved give-and-take by both sides. 'The quality of the discussion was different in the sense that we were talking about all the topics of the confidence-building measure,' said the official. 'We didn't do our set pieces. It was really a lot of give and take -- quite different from the last times. But you still have to get to the substance. The substance is not there yet.' ... Yet the official expressed confidence that the change in the substance of the discussion meant that certain progress was being made. 'There may not have been a breakthrough. But there was also no breakdown,' the senior US official said." http://t.uani.com/Y9AlGq NYT: "North Korea is more than 2,500 miles from the resumed nuclear negotiations that got under way here Friday between Iran and the six big powers, but North Korea's nuclear-arms bombast and the cautious foreign response are hanging over the negotiations in unsettling ways. For the first time since Iran and the six powers restarted their dialogue a year ago after a long lapse, North Korea, which had held similar talks in the 1990s that collapsed in betrayal and mistrust, is simultaneously demonstrating an outcome that Iran may find enviable, nonproliferation experts said. North Korea's arsenal of nuclear weapons, however small, has nonetheless emboldened it to challenge the United States and other nuclear-armed powers, which have responded with caution and - from North Korea's vantage point - some degree of respect. 'I do feel as if Iran has inevitably been drawing lessons from how the world is dealing with North Korea,' said Valerie Lincy, executive director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, a Washington-based research and advocacy group. 'I would imagine the lessons they're drawing are not the ones the Western powers would like: That you can weather sanctions, and renege on previous agreements, and ultimately if you stand fast, you'll get what you're looking for.'" http://t.uani.com/14Qcgac   Nuclear Program AFP: "The United States' top diplomat warned Iran on Sunday that time is running out on nuclear negotiations between the Islamic republic and world powers. 'This is not an endless process. ... You can't just talk for the sake of talking,' Secretary of State John Kerry told a news conference in Istanbul. Iran and six world powers -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- have failed to break the deadlock over Tehran's nuclear drive. After two days of talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear programme, chief negotiator Catherine Ashton, the European Union's top diplomat, said on Saturday that the sides were still 'far apart.' And no new date was agreed for the resumption of negotiations. 'This is not an interminable process ... we hope that out of Almaty will come a narrowing of the differences,' Kerry said." http://t.uani.com/11HgIoU AFP: "With North Korea issuing apocalyptic threats of nuclear war in recent weeks, Western powers have been reminded of what could happen if they fail to find a solution to Iran's disputed nuclear programme, experts say. World powers 'are now even more anxious not to have with Iran a situation like the one we have with North Korea,' Oliver Thraenert, head of the Centre for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, told AFP... 'The P5+1 will be even more mindful of the need to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis before it gets to the stage of North Korea and possessing a nuclear weapon, which would make the situation in Iran ever so much more complicated and dangerous,' said Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)... 'The North Korea situation will surely confirm the view in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to produce nuclear weapons. And that whatever it takes should be undertaken to prevent that,' Fitzpatrick said." http://t.uani.com/12xfAqv AFP: "Iran is 'far short' of what is required to achieve a breakthrough in talks with world powers over its disputed nuclear programme, Britain said after negotiations ended without resolution Saturday... 'The UK went to Kazakhstan ready with our partners to negotiate in good faith with Iran,' Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement. 'Lengthy discussions took place on some issues, but a wide gap remains between the parties. Iran's current position falls far short of what is needed to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough. We look to Iran to consider carefully whether it wants to continue on its current course, and face increasing pressure and isolation from the international community, or to enter into meaningful negotiations.'" http://t.uani.com/144bHKJ AFP: "Israel's strategic affairs minister on Sunday called on the international community to slap Iran with a firm ultimatum of 'a few weeks, a month' to stop enriching uranium or face a possible military strike. Speaking to army radio, Yuval Steinitz, who also holds the intelligence portfolio, said the latest inconclusive round of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers proved that the Islamic republic was stalling. 'The Iranians are playing games and laughing all the way to the bomb,' he said. 'It is time to present the Iranians with a military threat or some kind of red line, an unequivocal ultimatum from the entire world, (which must be delivered) by the United States and the West,' Steinitz said. He said the international community should give Tehran 'a few weeks, a month' in which to cease enriching uranium, but did not elaborate on what should be the consequence of non-compliance. 'As it makes progress with enriching uranium, Iran is likely to become a threshold state and that must be stopped now,' Steinitz said." http://t.uani.com/10LAITm AP: "A top Iranian lawmaker declared Sunday that Iran will never halt its nuclear development program, a day after the latest round of international talks failed to reach agreement on the issue. Alaeddin Boroujerdi said the talks were 'considered effective and a step forward,' but he added, 'the Islamic Republic of Iran will never stop uranium enrichment activities.' Boroujerdi, who heads a parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy, said the talks should continue. He was quoted by the ISNA news agency... 'If one day the (Iranian) administration decides to close down Fordo, the parliament will oppose the decision, definitely,' Boroujerdi was quoted as saying." http://t.uani.com/10JlbpQ Terrorism WashPost: "She was just 21, visiting the city's main Jewish community center with her mother, when a suicide bomber detonated a rental van loaded with explosives. Paola Czyzewski and 84 others were killed in the July 18, 1994, bombing, which was considered the bloodiest attack against Jews since World War II. Although Iran was widely believed to be responsible for the attack, Argentina bungled the investigation for more than a decade, and no one has been convicted in connection to the case. As if things couldn't get worse, said Czyzewski's father, Luis, Argentina's government is forming what it calls a 'truth commission' to investigate what happened - in a deal with Iran. Czyzewski and his wife, Ana Maria Blugerman, who survived the bombing, said they believe the partnership will only ensure that the people who devised and planned the attack elude justice." http://t.uani.com/ZsYUjA Foreign Affairs Reuters: "Egypt has halted commercial flights from Shi'ite power Iran until mid-June, days after the first such flight in 34 years between the countries provoked protests from hardline Sunni Islamists in Cairo. That first commercial flight, from Cairo to Tehran, took off on March 30 in the latest step towards normalizing ties broken after the 1979 Iranian revolution, when Egypt gave sanctuary to the deposed shah of Iran. But hardline Sunni Islamists who accuse Iran of trying to spread the Shi'ite faith in Sunni countries objected and about 100 people demonstrated in front of a senior Iranian diplomat's residence in Cairo on Friday. 'Talks were held and there was an agreement to postpone the arrival of (Iranian) visitors to mid-June,' Rasha Azaizi, the tourism ministry spokeswoman told Reuters on Monday." http://t.uani.com/17mH2Y9 Opinion & Analysis Scott Peterson in CSM: "Two days of Iran nuclear talks in Kazakhstan have exposed the depth of division and scale of mismatched expectations between Iran and six world powers, as they spar over ways to limit Iran's most sensitive nuclear work. The talks were unprecedented in both their intensity and depth, say officials from both sides, and even included a direct 30- to 40-minute exchange between the top American and top Iranian diplomats across the negotiating table. Yet instead of narrowing a chasm that has bedeviled five rounds of talks in a year between Iran and the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany), this round appeared to illustrate like never before the magnitude of the diplomatic challenge ahead. The P5+1 demands that Iran give up enriching uranium to 20 percent - a few technical steps away from bomb-grade - and disable one deeply buried facility, in exchange for a partial lifting of crippling sanctions. That proposal would be a first step toward a broader deal to ensure Iran will never make a nuclear bomb. Iran says it needs to know that final deal will guarantee its 'right' to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes and an end to sanctions; Iranian officials indicated that they counter-proposed exchanging 20 percent enrichment for a lifting of all unilateral sanctions. That disconnect and 'mutual misperceptions' now risk damaging the diplomatic process, says Ali Vaez, the senior Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group, who spoke to delegates on both sides at the talks in the Kazakh city of Almaty. 'The P5+1 expected instant gratification of its meaningful - but modest - offer of sanctions relief, while Iran saw an opportunity to devise a road map toward recognition of its rights to enrichment,' says Mr. Vaez. Differences now remain 'as wide as the distance between the first step and the end game,' says Vaez. 'Still, there is a real cost in declaring failure and as prospects of a deal narrow, the temptation of more coercive alternatives grows. The ironic end result of years of mutual escalation is that both parties are now loathe to use the leverage they have sacrificed so much to acquire.'" http://t.uani.com/14ZdW1t Bryan Prior in The National Interest: "Economic experts say the West's sanctions on Iran are serving to 'cripple' the Islamic Republic's economy. Yet, as the recent P5+1 talks in Kazakhstan remind us, talks are only likely to serve as a stalling tactic for Iran. Sanctions may have set back Iran's economy, but they have failed to alter its decision to pursue a nuclear program and are unlikely to do so. On the other hand, while the central goal of the Iran sanctions is to end its nuclear program, this needn't be the only goal. Another could be to erode Iran's non-nuclear national-security capabilities. Press and policy makers often lose sight of Iran's continually expanding, and now global, Qods Force network and its military's ever improving anti-access/area-denial capabilities. These abilities to project power can be used to pressure neighbors. And sanctions can continue to blunt these lethal arms of Iran's foreign policy while further isolating the regime. Iran's economic or societal tipping point, like many events in history, likely will hinge on unpredictable waves of momentum against the regime, over which U.S. policy makers can have little impact. History indicates that, until Iran reaches that point, it is unlikely to reverse its nuclear program. Thus, as the next round of talks in Kazakhstan comes and goes, U.S. policy makers should remain patient and place confidence in the other ways in which sanctions are working-namely, in thwarting Iran's goal of regional hegemony while demonstrating to the world the costs of attempting to cross the nuclear threshold. Consider just the economic impact of the sanctions. Since 2012 Iran's inflation has exceeded 100 percent; food prices have soared, doubling in some cases; its foreign-exchange reserves are depleted; unemployment, reported officially at 15.5 percent, is much higher, probably reaching close to 35 percent in the industrial sectors. Iran's occasional economic mismanagement hasn't helped, but sanctions have largely contributed to its current situation. Since the EU's oil sanctions went into affect in July 2012, Iranian oil exports have fallen 40 percent. Given 80 percent of Iran's economy is based in petroleum exports, not surprisingly GDP growth dropped 8 percent, and its economy will likely remain flat in 2013. As Iran's GDP has contracted, so have the government's revenues. In October, President Ahmadinejad acknowledged that Iran's budget was under pressure and parts of it were being cut by 25 percent or even zeroed out. And such budget reductions inevitably undercut Iran's overarching goal of projecting influence in the region. Ahmadinejad's October announcement was one of the few instances in which details of Iran's budget cuts have been revealed. Fortunately, analysts tracking Iran can deduce budgetary effects from what Iran does not say-notably, the lack of boisterous military exercises or publicized progress of weapon systems. Large-scale military exercises such as Velayat and Noble Prophet were intentionally ostentatious until July 2012, but since their scale has tapered off... The lack of announcements on Iran's military advancements also suggests major delays or cancellation of weapons programs... Sanctions also have degraded Iran's soft power. Iran's sanctions-induced economic downturn has made it increasingly reliant on the limited number countries purchasing its oil (e.g., China, India, South Korea, Japan, Turkey). This undercuts Iran's ability to leverage economic soft power against them while rendering it vulnerable diplomatically to economic pressure. For example, Iran proved powerless to alter Turkey's course in the ongoing Syrian civil war or to thwart its decision to accept NATO Patriot missile batteries. Meanwhile, efforts to isolate Iran economically have resulted in Iran's diplomatic and informational isolation. France, Hong Kong and Spain banned several Iranian satellite channels and radio stations this winter, limiting Iran's ability to project influence through its state-controlled media... History tells us that sanctions directed at an antagonistic regime generally achieve only modest policy goals. They rarely force major policy changes, especially against adversarial, undemocratic regimes. In fact, the Peterson Institute's survey of 174 sanction case studies failed to find a single example dating back to 1914 in which sanctions caused an antagonistic regime to adopt major policy changes. But sanctions forced modest behavioral changes from rival regimes in 13 percent of the cases and disrupted militaries in 40 percent. If the United States and its partner nations accept more modest policy objectives, then they already are succeeding-even if Iran ultimately becomes a nuclear power. This is not to say the United States should abandon its aim of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But that needn't be the only purpose of sanctions. The U.S. should campaign diplomatically for even greater sanctions against Iran at least to delay a nuclear Iran while also curbing various other forms of nefarious activity. That could serve three purposes: ensure an ongoing sanctions regime against Iran even in the event that it acquires a weapon (economic); preventing the enhancement of Iran's conventional capabilities (military); and further isolating Iran as a pariah state (political). Regionally, such measures will help assure Arab allies in the Gulf that their energy infrastructure will remain unthreatened. Globally, it will demonstrate to future nations seeking nuclear weapons that such ventures come at a major cost economically, militarily and politically." http://t.uani.com/10yI4fG Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.