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AP:
"Edging toward a historic compromise, the U.S. and Iran reported
progress Monday on a deal that would clamp down on Tehran's nuclear
activities for at least 10 years but then slowly ease restrictions on
programs that could be used to make atomic arms... 'We made progress,'
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said as he bade farewell to members of
the American delegation at the table with Iran. More discussions between
Iran and the six nations engaging it were set for next Monday, a senior
U.S. official said. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said
the sides found 'a better understanding' at the negotiating table... The
core idea would be to reward Iran for good behavior over the last years
of any agreement, gradually lifting constraints on its uranium enrichment
and slowly easing economic sanctions... The U.S. initially sought
restrictions lasting up to 20 years; Iran has pushed for less than a
decade... One variation being discussed would place at least a 10-year
regime of strict controls on Iran's uranium enrichment. If Iran complied,
the restrictions would be gradually lifted over the final five years. One
issue critics are certain to focus on: Once the deal expired, Iran could
theoretically ramp up enrichment to whatever level it wanted." http://t.uani.com/1w7qSMl
Reuters:
"Iraq is a mainly Arab country. Its citizens, Shi'ite and Sunni
Muslims alike, have long mistrusted Iran, the Persian nation to the east.
But as Baghdad struggles to fight the Sunni extremist group Islamic
State, many Shi'ite Iraqis now look to Iran, a Shi'ite theocracy, as
their main ally... In particular, Iraqi Shi'ites have grown to trust the
powerful Iranian-backed militias that have taken charge since the Iraqi
army deserted en masse last summer. Dozens of paramilitary groups have
united under a secretive branch of the Iraqi government called the
Popular Mobilisation Committee, or Hashid Shaabi. Created by Prime
Minister Haider al-Abadi's predecessor Nuri al-Maliki, the official body
now takes the lead role in many of Iraq's security operations. From its
position at the nexus between Tehran, the Iraqi government, and the militias,
it is increasingly influential in determining the country's future. Until
now, little has been known about the body. But in a series of interviews
with Reuters, key Iraqi figures inside Hashid Shaabi have detailed the
ways the paramilitary groups, Baghdad and Iran collaborate, and the role
Iranian advisers play both inside the group and on the frontlines." http://t.uani.com/1acIyla
Reuters:
"German exports to Iran jumped 30 percent last year to 2.4 billion
euros, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Tuesday,
bolstered by the easing of Western sanctions amid progress in talks on
the country's nuclear programme. Germany is traditionally Iran's biggest
trading partner in Europe and last year's increase, the sharpest in a
decade, was driven by sales of machinery, agricultural and pharmaceutical
products, the Office said. It did not say which companies had benefited.
German firms that had been forced to reduce their activities in Iran when
the sanctions were tighter include Siemens . Others with business
interests there include Bayer and utilities RWE and E.ON. 'At the start
of 2014, some of the sanctions were eased so insurance for ship transport
and the delivery of car and aircraft parts were allowed,' said Volker
Treier, of Germany's DIHK chambers of trade and commerce." http://t.uani.com/1A3jySf
Nuclear
Program & Negotiations
NYT:
"Limits on the number of centrifuges Iran would be allowed, and for
how long, are only part of an enormously complex negotiation. 'The number
in the abstract is meaningless,' Antony J. Blinken, the newly appointed
deputy secretary of state, said at the Aspen Institute in Washington on
Monday. Warning time, he added, depends on a number of other factors,
including how the centrifuges are configured, whether new or more
efficient centrifuges would be used for enrichment, and how much nuclear
fuel Iran would be allowed to stockpile in the country. Part of an
agreement would require Iran to ship much of its stockpile to Russia, but
it is not clear yet how much. The key, Mr. Blinken said, is getting an
accord 'that gives you plenty of time to do something' if Iran races for
a bomb. He said that he could not predict whether an agreement was
possible, but that any deal would have to 'cut off all pathway for Iran
to get to a nuclear weapon,' including the covert path. That would
require highly intrusive inspections, Mr. Blinken said, the details of
which were still up for negotiations. 'What has to result from any
agreement is the strongest, most intrusive inspection and access program
that any country has ever seen, because Iran has forfeited the trust of
the international community,' Mr. Blinken said." http://t.uani.com/1zzxgxk
AFP:
"Russia voiced confidence on Tuesday that world powers and Iran
would be able to reach a comprehensive accord over Tehran's disputed
nuclear programme by a June 30 final deadline. Moscow's chief nuclear
negotiator said after the latest round of talks between US Secretary of
State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad in Geneva
that tangible progress was being made. 'We are satisfied to see every new
meeting achieve further progress,' the RIA Novosti news agency quoted
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying. 'There is a
growing confidence that an agreement will be reached by the assigned
deadline -- in other words, June 30,' Ryabkov said in the Swiss
city." http://t.uani.com/1wjVjof
Reuters:
"Iran's nuclear negotiator promised speedier cooperation with the
International Atomic Energy Agency on Tuesday, days after the U.N.
watchdog said Tehran was continuing to stall parts of an investigation
into its nuclear programme. 'We agreed ... to move faster and in a better
sense (in cooperating with the IAEA),' Abbas Araqchi told reporters after
meeting IAEA head Yukiya Amano in Vienna. The U.N. investigation is
happening in parallel with talks between Iran and the United States,
Russia, Britain, China, France and Germany aimed at reaching a framework
deal by an end-March deadline over Iranian nuclear energy work that the
West fears is a cover for a weapons programme... The IAEA described
Tuesday's meeting as useful but reiterated previous calls on Iran to
speed up its cooperation with the investigation into whether work it
conducted in the past was linked to nuclear weapons development." http://t.uani.com/1DOasAt
Terrorism
Asharq Al-Awsat:
"Iran has been coordinating with Al-Qaeda and its affiliates since
2007 with the aim of carrying out terror attacks against US targets in
Dubai and Saudi Arabia, informed sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Speaking under condition of anonymity, the sources said coordination
between Iran and the global terrorist organization was mainly taking
place through Saudi citizen Saleh Al-Qarawi, a senior member of the
organization who is on the Kingdom's most-wanted lists and is the founder
of Al-Qaeda affiliate the Abdullah Al-Azzam Brigades. The sources
contend Qarawi is the main Al-Qaeda figure coordinating operations from
inside Iran, where they say he has been moving freely for a number of
years and from where he has been recruiting other Saudi citizens for the
organization and coordinating their movement into Iran from the
Kingdom." http://t.uani.com/1zD66Wf
Syrian Conflict
Reuters: "Having lost control of its oil wells, Syria has been
forced to import crude. Iranian support has remained solid, despite the
decline in world oil prices which are around half the level they were at
last June, said Safiyeh. 'The import of petroleum products did not stop
because of the fall in the oil price. It continued, with the Iranian
credit line, and continues until now,' [the Syrian minister of internal
trade and consumer protection Hassan] Safieh said. He did not give
numbers. 'There is an Iranian credit line. The truth is there are
excellent (credit) facilities, and also Russia stands with us and the
BRICs are standing with us in any matters requiring the provision of
necessary supplies,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1vsbzms
Human Rights
IranWire:
"An influential cleric has called for increased censorship, bans on
concerts and greater solidarity among hardliners. Iran's cultural
environment was currently in 'chaos,' Mohammadali Movahedi Kermani
announced to an audience at the closing ceremony for the Islamic Student
Association conference at Mash-had Ferdosi University in mid-February. He
urged Ministry of Culture officials to practice restraint when granting
permits for publications and complained that there were not enough
'useful' books presented at fairs and conferences. 'Under the present
conditions, authorities should initiate a jihadist movement,' he said,
according to Rasanews. He emphasized the need for censorship and called
for 'obscene concerts' to be banned." http://t.uani.com/1GoFb5n
Foreign Affairs
Sydney Morning
Herald: "Julie Bishop is to become the first senior
Australian government figure to visit Iran in more than a decade and only
the second senior Western leader over that same period, when she travels
to Tehran in April. The trip is being viewed as a potential game-changer
in the fight against the Sunni-extremist Islamic State organisation, but
it could also help unlock lucrative economic opportunities for Australia
- reviving a once booming trade in education, wheat, meat, and other
areas. It is understood the rare visit by a senior US-aligned government
figure has received the enthusiastic backing of the White House, which
hopes Australia might provide a conduit for a new constructive dialogue
between Washington and Tehran given the common enemy currently rampaging
through Iraq, Syria, and now Libya. It follows a specific invitation by
the country's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. The Australian
Foreign Minister's Middle East foray will take place in April, less than
two months before the US and Iran hit a self-imposed deadline for a
comprehensive nuclear energy deal." http://t.uani.com/1w7ncdt
Opinion &
Analysis
Eli Lake &
Josh Rogin in Bloomberg: "For anyone hoping a
nuclear deal with Iran might stop the Tehran government from
destabilizing the Middle East or free its political prisoners, the Obama
administration has some bad news: It's just an arms control agreement. As
details of a proposed pact leaked out of the Geneva talks Monday,
administration officials told us they will ask the world to judge any
final nuclear agreement on the technical aspects only, not on whether the
deal will spur Iranian reform. 'The only consideration driving what is
part of any comprehensive agreement with Iran is how we can get to a
one-year breakout time and cut off the four pathways for Iran to get
enough material for a nuclear weapon, period,' said State Department
spokeswoman Marie Harf. 'And if we reach an agreement, that will be the
basis upon which people should judge it -- on the technical merits of it,
not on anything else.' When asked if the State Department would argue the
benefits of any deal in part by saying it would help Iran's president,
Hassan Rouhani, against his country's hard-liners and therefore promote
reforms, Harf said: 'This is absolutely ridiculous.' This is a long way
from the grand aspirational sentiments expressed by President Barack
Obama back in 2009, when he announced his intention to engage Iran.
Obama, speaking on the Persian new year celebration of Nowruz, said he
wanted 'the Islamic Republic of Iran to take its rightful place in the
community of nations.' Back then, many advocates for engagement argued
that the nuclear deal could unlock the key to moderating Iran's rogue
behavior. Iran, however, spurned Obama's outstretched hand. A few months
after the Nowruz message, the regime conducted widespread arrests of
people who had protested a presidential election they claimed their
country's supreme leader had stolen. And in 2011, Iran stuck with Syria's
dictator, Bashar al-Assad, as he declared war on his own people with
barrel bombs and chemical weapons. This year, Iran's fingerprints are all
over the overthrow of the pro-American government in Yemen and violent
Shiite militias unleashed in Iraq. Given that track record, it's easy to
understand why the Obama administration would now focus on the
nonproliferation benefits of an Iran deal alone. A senior official told
us that the White House's arguments would not suggest a 'broad
rapprochement' with Iran, and would 'make clear that any deal will not
lessen in any way our concerns about Iran's regional policies.' Yet many
of the White House's allies will make a markedly different case for an
Iran deal, should one come about. Several advocates told us Monday that
one of the advantages of an accord is that any phased lifting of
sanctions, combined with a decrease in hostility between Iran and the
country its leaders call 'the great Satan,' could help the country's
moderates and over time lead to reforms in the world's leading state
sponsor of terrorism." http://t.uani.com/1EMI92v
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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