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TOP STORIES
President Trump must decide by Thursday whether to once
again waive economic sanctions on Iran, a task imposed on him by a
deal he holds in contempt and appears to be preparing to ditch. But
despite his concern that Iran is an international threat, Trump is
expected to waive sanctions on Iran's oil and banking sectors for the
second time since taking office. If not, the United States will be in
breach of the landmark 2015 deal that is a legacy of the Obama administration.
The House adopted measures on Wednesday to prevent sales
of commercial aircraft to Iran, despite warnings from some Democrats
that it would undermine the international accord to curtail the
country's nuclear weapons program. Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) offered
two amendments to a 2018 government spending package that would
specifically prohibit the use of funds to authorize financial
transactions for the sales and prevent the Office of Foreign Assets
Control from clearing licenses to allow aircraft sales. Roskam said
that the U.S. should refrain from selling the aircraft to Iran given
the country's history of using commercial aircraft to transport
resources, like weapons and troops, to support President Bashar Assad
in Syria.
The 148th Foreign Ministers' ordinary session at the
Arab League Council's inauguration, today, Tuesday, September 13, was
not a peaceful juncture. The Qatari Minister of State for Foreign
Affairs, Sultan bin Saad al- Marikhi, provoked the four boycotting
countries with his statements. Marikhi justified Qatar's relations
with Iran referring to it as "an honorable country"..
Responding to Marikhi, Saudi Ambassador to Egypt and delegate to the
League of Arab States, Ahmed Kattan, said Qatar will regret its
relations with Iran, referring to the Iranian conspiracy against the
Gulf states.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The Iranian nuclear deal is "bad" and needs to
be fixed or canceled, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said
ahead of a visit to the United States, where he is expected to meet
President Trump and push for changes. An Israeli official, who spoke
on the condition of anonymity ahead of the discussions, said the
Israeli government's main concern is the "sunset clause,"
which sets expiration dates on limits imposed on Iran's nuclear
program.
Washington's European allies are urging the Donald Trump
administration to stick with the Iran nuclear deal, while offering to
collaborate on other ways to address outstanding issues such as
Tehran's support for militant proxy groups in the region and its ballistic
missile program.
British Prime Minister Theresa May stressed the
importance of a 2015 international agreement on Iran's nuclear
program to U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Thursday during a
brief meeting at her London office.
Iranian state TV says President Hassan Rouhani will
attend this year's U.N General Assembly meeting in New York and
address the assembly on Sept. 20. His upcoming visit to the U.N.
headquarters, reported Wednesday, comes as the future of Iran's
landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers is in doubt
BUSINESS RISK
Iran will take any necessary steps to ensure the
stability of the oil market, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on
Wednesday after meeting Venezuelan counterpart Eulogio Del Pino in
Tehran, according to SHANA, the news site of the Iranian oil
ministry. "We are prepared for any action that will help
the stability of the oil market," Zanganeh said. Zanganeh said
compliance by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries with an agreement to curb oil output had been about 98
percent in the past eight months and would improve in the future.
Zanganeh discussed a possible extension of the OPEC supply cuts
until June 2018 with Del Pino, SHANA reported. Talks will be held
with other OPEC members about extending the cuts at an Oct. 4 meeting
of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Moscow. Separately, the
managing director of the Oil Industries Engineering and Construction group,
Behzad Mohammadi, said 4 million barrels of oil had been extracted
from the Azar oilfield, which is shared with Iraq.
IRAQ CRISIS
Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, the newly appointed
chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, visited Iraq recently, fueling
speculation about his political agenda. His meetings indicate that he
most likely was seeking to unify Shiites ahead of the 2018 elections,
although he doesn't appear to have succeeded. Shahroudi, who is a
dual Iranian-Iraqi citizen and was a senior leader in the Islamic
Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq before he became
involved in Iranian politics, was warmly welcomed by those two
groups, but later in his weeklong visit, he found himself snubbed by
others.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The chairman of the BBC has called on Iran to stop the
"harassment" of the corporation's journalists.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
The perhaps most prominent of the
grandsons of the founder of the Islamic Republic has lately adopted a
new demeanor on the Iranian political stage. Although he is generally
viewed as close to the Reformist camp, he has lately been sending
signals that hint at his interest in the rival Principlist tent.
Seyyed Hassan Khomeini is widely seen as a protector of the legacy of
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Although he has never run for elected
office, he has generally supported Reformist candidates in their
campaigns and has thus been the target of attacks from Principlists.
However, this seems to have changed following the January death of
Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
The notion that the U.S. should be restrained by the
JCPOA ignores the fact that the accord is a deficient agreement whose
permissive technical provisions have to be revisited. The notion of
rigorously enforcing the agreement only means upholding an accord
that puts Iran on a steady and legal path to the bomb. In the end,
Iran today enjoys deterrence on the cheap. Terrorism and the JCPOA
have shielded it from real costs. A wise policy should start with the
obvious: the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. is a conflict
between a superpower with global reach and a local regime detested by
its public and distrusted by its neighbors. The Islamic Republic
retreats only when confronted with resolution and strength. For the
Trump administration to succeed in the Middle East, it has to not
just destroy the Islamic State. but defang the Islamic Republic.
Is Iran complying with the nuclear deal? The Trump
administration has twice certified to Congress that Tehran is indeed
in compliance-or so the news media has reported. In reality, the
administration has made no such certification, but a classified and largely
ignored government report would better illuminate whether Iran is
adhering to its obligations. The executive branch should declassify
this document so that Americans can know more about Iran's
compliance-or noncompliance-with the agreement.
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