Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Eye on Iran: Iran's New Ballistic Missile Looks a Lot Like a Modified North Korean One


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Shortly after revealing the new Khorramshahr medium range ballistic missile to the public for the first time, Iran released a never before seen video showing a successful test of the weapon, but did not give a date or place for the footage. The new development will undoubtedly have an impact on whether U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration decide to scrap a deal with Iran over its controversial nuclear program, but it also underscores long-standing concerns that the Iranian authorities have been working with the North Koreans and other allies to skirt their international obligations.


One of the strongest forces holding Iran back from exerting even greater influence in Iraq is the United States and its military presence in the country - some 5,800 troops. But, now that ISIS' presence in Iraq has been beaten back to a few beleaguered pockets, how long will the United States stay, and what does the future hold if the Trump Administration decides to leave?


Iran's recent ballistic missile launch was fake and never took place, U.S. officials told Fox News on Monday. Iran state television claimed that the nation had successfully fired a missile and aired footage of the launch on Friday, but that video was actually of a launch that took place in January, according to Fox News. That missile exploded shortly after launch.

UANI IN THE NEWS


SANCTIONS RELIEF


Iran will persist with exporting its oil to global customers, unfettered by Donald Trump's intensifying offensive against the country, according to the Middle East nation's state-run producer. The OPEC member is shipping a combined 2.6 million barrels a day of crude and the ultra-light oil known as condensate, and expects to export more at the end of 2017, said S. Khoshrou, director of international affairs at National Iranian Oil Co. The country is "not worried" about its ability to send cargoes overseas to Asia and Europe despite rising tensions with the U.S., he said in an interview in Singapore.


The Trump administration wants to ratchet up economic pressure on Iran, but unless it can persuade skeptical governments in Europe and Asia to join the effort, it will be forced to use unilateral measures that would probably prove ineffective at choking Tehran's economy, former officials, diplomats, and experts say.


European banks have begun a fresh wave of investment in Iran, just as Washington launches another attempt at restricting links between the US and Iran. Over the past week, banks in Austria, Denmark and France have announced investment deals with Iran worth a collective €2bn ($2.4bn), while in contrast the White House on September 24 announced a fresh travel ban on the citizens of Iran and seven other countries. The wave of European financing began on September 21, when Austria's Oberbank agreed to extend a €1bn line of credit to 14 Iranian banks. The money will be used for infrastructure projects in Iran. On the same day, Denmark's Danske Bank signing a deal for a €500m line of credit with ten Iranian banks. Since then, French state-owned bank BPI France has said it will also provide a €500m credit line to French companies wanting to invest in Iran. Iran has set up similar arrangements over the past couple of months with Export-Import Bank of Korea for €8bn and with a number of Chinese banks covering $35bn worth of financing.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS  


An economic blockade on Qatar is having the effect of pushing Qatar closer to Iran economically, Qatar's foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told reporters in Paris.  "They said Qatar was now closer to Iran. By their measures they are pushing Qatar to Iran. They are giving Iran, or any regional force, Qatar like a gift," he said on Monday.  "Is that their objective, to push one country, a GCC member state toward Iran? This is not a wise objective," he added.  Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani also stressed that Qatar still had political differences with Iran, including over Syria.

IRAQ CRISIS


The leader of Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region says a controversial vote on independence will go ahead as planned on September 25, despite mounting pressure to call off the referendum. The president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Masud Barzani, said on September 24 that the nonbinding vote will be the first step in a long process to negotiate independence. "The partnership with Baghdad has failed and we will not return to it," Barzani told a press conference in Irbil, urging all Kurds to vote "in peace." The Baghdad government and the international community have opposed the referendum -- including neighboring Turkey and Iran, which themselves have sizable Kurdish minorities.


Iran has closed its border with the Kurdish region of Iraq at the request of Baghdad, a statement from the Iranian foreign ministry has said. Land crossings into Iran were shut to Iraqi Kurdistan on Monday, as Iraq's 8.4 million Kurds lined up at polling stations to vote in a referendum on creating an independent state. The decision follows the closure of both Iranian and Turkish airspace to Iraq on Sunday.


Thousands of Iranian Kurds poured into the streets of Iran overnight and into early Tuesday in support of the Iraqi Kurds' landmark referendum for independence from Baghdad, showing the vote's impact extends beyond Iraq's borders to its nervous neighbors. Authorities in Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish region put turnout at over 70 percent, showing how the nonbinding vote captured the imagination of Kurds who have longed to have a nation to call their own. When colonial powers drew the map of the Middle East after World War I, the Kurds were divided among Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. However, to Baghdad, the vote threatens a redrawing of Iraq's borders, taking a sizeable part of the country's oil wealth with it. For Turkey and Iran, leaders there fear the move would embolden their own Kurdish populations. In Iran, widespread demonstrations took place in the cities of Baneh, Saghez and Sanandaj. Footage shared online by Iranian Kurds showed demonstrators waving lit mobile phones in the air and chanting their support into the night. Some footage also showed Iranian police officers assembling nearby or watching the demonstrators.

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Iran has emerged the main victor in post-Saddam Iraq. Iranian influence permeates all Iraqi political and military institutions, and Iran's Quds Force Commander, Qassem Soleimani, commands a powerful network of Iraqi Shiite militia groups that are not entirely accountable to the Baghdad government. After the 2003 invasion, Tehran's key objective in Iraq was to speed up the withdrawal of U.S. troops and expand its influence through sponsoring militant proxies and supporting Iraqi Shiite politicians close to Tehran.


The weak Iranian nuclear deal, which the former American administration agreed upon, is partially responsible for North Korea's surge in developing its nuclear program. Iran was rewarded with a sum of $150 billion as per the deal and the country managed to retrieve funds withheld since the days of the Shah, with profits. It was also granted massive contracts to develop its technical and manufacturing abilities and most international sanctions against them were lifted. A besieged North Korea has also chosen to blackmail the world because it views this as profitable trade. Just like Iran threatened to burn Israel, North Korea is threatening Japan. Its second nuclear missile test two weeks ago sailed over Japan's skies. There are now no doubts over the threats that North Korea poses. Washington has two options now - either offer North Korean leader Kim Jong-un an agreement similar to Tehran's or to end the agreement with the Iranians and propose new ideas to strip Iran and North Korea off their nuclear capabilities.


No country opposes the Iraqi Kurdish referendum more than the Islamic Republic of Iran. The reason is clear: Iranian leaders fear the precedent that Iraqi Kurds might set for Iran's own restive Kurdish population. With Soviet help, Kurdish nationalists carved the first modern Kurdish state out of the chaos of post-World War II Iran, declaring the self-styled Mahabad Republic on Jan. 22, 1946. It managed to survive for a year before Reza Shah - the father of the Iranian leader ousted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution - rallied his forces and crushed the would-be Kurdish state. Mulla Mustafa Barzani, father of de facto-Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, was one of four generals serving the short-lived republic. Kurds in Iran again sought to assert nationalist claims against the backdrop of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but they were unable to sustain their autonomy against the onslaught of Iranian forces.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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