Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Eye on Iran: Trump Will Call for Action on North Korea, Iran in First UN Address


   EYE ON IRAN
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President Donald Trump will call on world leaders to confront North Korea and Iran in his first address to the United Nations on Tuesday, seeking a broad alliance against the two countries his administration considers the world's gravest threats. With his remarks, Trump will emphasize that the peril posed by North Korean and Iranian weapons programs is too great for any country to remain on the sidelines, according to two U.S. officials who previewed themes of the address on Monday.


Asked by reporters whether he would withdraw [from the Iran deal], Mr. Trump said, "You'll see very soon. You'll be seeing very soon." He added: "We're talking about it constantly. Constantly. We're talking about plans constantly."


"We will destroy the Zionist entity at lightning speed, and thus shorten the 25 years it still has left," Iranian media quoted [Seyyed Abdolrahim Mousavi, an Iranian military officer currently acting as the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army] as saying in reference to a recurring threat by Iran and its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take down the State of Israel in the next quarter century. "I warn the [Zionist] entity not to make any stupid move against the Islamic Republic of Iran," he threatened. "Every [such] stupid act will [make us] turn Tel Aviv and Haifa into dust."

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL


NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR H.R. MCMASTER: Well, we have to see what live with it means, right? Live with can't be giving this regime cover to develop a nuclear capability. And so, a lot of things have to happen immediately, rigorous enforcement of that agreement. It is under-enforced now. We know Iran has already violated parts of the agreement... the IAEA has identified and we've identified some of these breaches that Iran has then corrected. But what does that tell you about Iranian behavior? They're not just walking up to the line on the agreement. They're crossing the line at times... [W]e have to recognize the fundamental flaws in this deal. It is -- as the president said -- it is the worst deal. It gave all these benefits to the Iranian regime upfront and these benefits now they are using to foment this humanitarian catastrophe in the greater Middle East.


Lawmakers on the Senate Intelligence Committee are hinting at still-secret details related to Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal that the president could use to back up a potential October decertification. Trump is required by law to report to Congress every 90 days on Iranian implementation of the nuclear deal. If he decertifies compliance on or before October 15, Congress then has 60 days to debate reimposing sanctions lifted under the agreement-some of which Trump waived this week. 


France on Monday gave a staunch defense of the Iran nuclear deal, suggesting there could be talks to strengthen the pact for the post-2025 period but that allowing it to collapse could lead Iran's neighbors to seek atomic weapons.


The United States and Iran quarreled over how Tehran's nuclear activities should be policed at a meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Monday, in a row sparked last month by Washington's call for wider inspections. Key U.S. allies are worried by the possibility of Washington pulling out of a 2015 landmark nuclear deal under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions against it being lifted.


Iranian Vice President Ali Akbar Salehi on Monday accused the U.S. of violating the spirit and letter of the 2015 nuclear deal, escalating a clash between the two countries at the start of a crucial week of talks on the accord's future. 


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Monday that America will pay a "high cost" if US President Donald Trump makes good on his threats to scrap the Iran nuclear deal... He said any riposte from Iran would come "quite swiftly" and "probably within a week," adding that "if the US wants to increase the tensions it will see the reaction from Iran."


With President Trump's disdain for the 2015 agreement on limiting Iran's nuclear program threatening the pact's survival, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is likely to focus much of his time at the U.N. General Assembly this week with one main goal in mind: defending the controversial agreement. During his highly anticipated speech to the General Assembly on Wednesday--along with several other planned meetings--Rouhani will likely argue that Iran has complied with the terms of the deal.


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will suggest "concrete ideas" to US President Donald Trump during their meeting in New York on Monday to either change or scrap the Iranian nuclear deal, sources in the Prime Minister's entourage said on Sunday. The meeting comes amid a debate in Washington over whether the US should walk away from the deal and what ramifications that move would create.


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lay out a comprehensive case against Iran in his speech Tuesday at the United Nations, "connecting the dots" between the nuclear deal and Tehran's desire to establish itself militarily on Israel's northern border, Israel's ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said Sunday. Netanyahu will make plain that in Jerusalem's view the Iran nuclear pact must not be left intact, Danon said.


The French government will use meetings at the UN this week to try to persuade Donald Trump not to abandon the nuclear agreement with Iran, warning that the deal's collapse would trigger a "spiral of proliferation" in the Middle East, the French foreign minister said. Jean-Yves Le Drian said that Iran was abiding by the terms of the 2015 deal, and that verification measures were being "strictly implemented" by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

SANCTIONS RELIEF


As Iran's economy tries to rebound from years of harsh international sanctions, producers of black caviar - that salt-cured delicacy associated with the rich and famous, with a price tag to match - are also eyeing a comeback. Once among Iran's most famous exports, the industry nearly collapsed because of trade restrictions and an international clampdown on the capture of sturgeon from the Caspian Sea.


Less than two years after it returned to the international oil markets, Iran is quick to embrace the alternative of oil: renewable energy sources. The country's Deputy Energy Minister, Houshang Fallahatian, told media that Tehran plans to add 1,000 MW of new renewable power capacity every year over the next five years. Revenues from renewables should reach US$60 billion if the plan succeeds.

EXTREMISM  


Iran's army chief warned Monday that his country would immediately lay waste to Israel's commercial capital of Tel Aviv should Israeli leaders make any mistakes. The threat came just a day before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to take the stage to deliver a U.N. General Assembly speech widely believed to center on Iran's growing influence in the Middle East. Israel's traditionally dismal relationships with other countries in the majority-Muslim region have shifted, with some Gulf Arab states reportedly moving away from a decades-long boycott established after Israel's founding in 1948 and the subsequent expulsion and exodus of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS  


Like two catty girls whose favorite thing to do when getting together is talk smack about the weird kid in class, it seems when the US and Israel meet - or rather their leaders do - all they want to dish about is Iran, and not their own fetch bilateral relations or peace efforts. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, and slated to see US President Donald Trump on Monday, Israeli concerns about Iran are, in the words of Yedioth Ahronoth's headline, "Back on the table."

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar will pay separate visits to Iran in the coming days amid rising tension over the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) bid to hold an independence referendum on Sept. 25 and continued efforts to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria. President Erdoğan and Iranian President Hasan Ruhani will preside over the Fifth Turkey-Iran High Level Strategic Council meeting that will be held in Tehran on Oct. 4.

IRAQ CRISIS


Iran warned on Sunday that independence for Iraqi Kurdistan would mean an end to all border and security arrangements with the regional government.

YEMEN CRISIS


The top American admiral in the Middle East said on Monday that Iran continues to smuggle illicit weapons and technology into Yemen, stoking the civil strife there and enabling Iranian-backed rebels to fire missiles into neighboring Saudi Arabia that are more precise and far-reaching.

HUMAN RIGHTS


President Donald Trump will give special attention to the Iranian people during his speech Tuesday to the United Nations General Assembly - signaling that he sees them as not only separate from their Islamist government, but as a threat to its survival, a senior administration official said.


Iran's imprisonment of Xiyue Wang, a naturalized United States citizen from China who is a Ph.D. candidate in history at Princeton University, has left his family, colleagues and supporters despondent and outraged... The Iranian judiciary said this July that he had been sentenced to a 10-year term for espionage. His wife, Hua Qu... [said]... ["]Over all, he's doing poorly there. He has health problems and hopes to get access to medical treatment and to get home as soon as possible. That is probably the only way to solve his health issues, his depression. It's very difficult.["]


Iranian filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof has been ordered to attend a court hearing in Tehran after his passport was confiscated at the border before the weekend. Rasoulof, who won the Un Certain Regard award at Cannes this year for his film A Man of Integrity (also known as Lerd), was returning to Iran from Colorado's Telluride Film Festival when he was stopped at Tehran Airport on Friday. No reason was given for the confiscation of his passport, and he was subsequently ordered to appear at a "culture and media" court in the Iranian capital, Kaveh Farman a co-producer on A Man of Integrity told The Hollywood Reporter.


Mahvash Sabet, one of the leaders of Iran's Baha'i community jailed by authorities, has been released after serving her 10-year-prison sentence. Sabet, 64, and six other Baha'i leaders were arrested in 2008 and convicted of espionage and spreading propaganda against the clerical establishment... "Although the news of the release of Sabet after the completion of her sentence is a welcome development, it does not signal the end of the persecution of the Baha'is in Iran," Bani Dugal, the representative of the Baha'i International Community to the United Nations in New York, said.

OPINION & ANALYSIS


Team Trump is facing up to the fact that Iran is regularly cheating on the Obama administration's nuclear deal - even if it's not yet clear what they'll do about it... Why keep the deal when Iran is simply cheating its way into the nuclear club?


As world leaders converge on New York this week for the U.N. General Assembly, a U.N. body is set to publicly call for the release of two Iranian Americans imprisoned unjustly in Tehran. That creates an opportunity for the Trump administration to make good on its promise to ramp up efforts to bring American hostages home. With Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif present with him in New York, President Trump is expected to focus on the future of the Iran nuclear deal, Iranian military expansion in the Middle East and the regime's human rights abuses. But the subject of American hostages is also a stated priority of the Trump White House. The question is whether the president will give it equal billing or put the fate of the U.S. prisoners on a back burner.


[I]f the US president is hell-bent on needling Iran, he should at least needle them on the right topic: human rights... Freedom of speech and the right to protest would energise young Iranians who crave the opportunities their peers have in the West. The problem is the US shows itself barely interested in backing waves of dissent that would help to boot religion out of government in Iran... So what should Trump do as he attends his first UN General Assembly as President? Easy. Approach Federica Mogherini, the EU's high representative on foreign affairs - she has the ear of the Iranians like no one. Just like General Zod used Lois Lane to get Superman's attention, Trump should implore Mogherini to pile pressure on Iran's foreign minister Zarif - who denies Iran even has a human rights problem - to push his government about the plight of innocent people in the country's jails and outside, and those in judicial limbo having paid a paralysing amount of money for bail.


As Prime Minister Netanyahu rightly pointed out during our meeting, the greatest threat to Israel is the expansion of the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism and a regime that openly calls for the annihilation of the Jewish State - Iran. The Iranian threat has increased exponentially due to an influx of billions of dollars to the regime that resulted from the Obama administration's flawed nuclear deal that provided sanctions relief to a tyrannical regime. 


It is hard to tell what [Secetary of State Rex Tillerson] thinks or even if he speaks for the president, who has said he wanted to nix the deal months ago... [A]re these guys recommending Trump find Iran in breach or not? You got me. The haphazard way in which this is playing out - without a single clear message, without consultation with our allies or Congress, and with no plan for what happens if Russia and China (at the very least) don't go along with existing sanctions and nix sanctions on non-nuclear activities - is distressing... Does anyone think this administration is remotely capable of comparable finesse in managing the consequences of a pullout from the JCPOA? Tillerson cannot even get through a polite interview without sowing confusion and consternation.


Israel's formidable military capability-for which the Russians (and Assad) have a healthy dose of respect-can become a major factor driving a wedge between Russian and Iranian designs. Ever since Russia's military intervention in Syria began in September 2015, it has been made repeatedly and abundantly clear to Moscow that Israel will act decisively to prevent Syria from becoming a conduit of strategic supply to Iran's proxy Hizballah or a base of operations for that organization's further expansion. Interestingly, Putin's response has been not summarily to show Netanyahu the door but instead to suggest mechanisms of "deconfliction": another way of saying that Israel's concerns are understood and will be honored. This is hardly to suggest that the Russians will relinquish their cooperation with Iran. But they are quite capable of telling Assad, discreetly but effectively, not to put himself, let alone what Moscow has invested in his survival, at risk. 


Despite President Donald Trump's disapproval of the JCPOA agreement with Iran, which he promised during his election campaign to "rip up," he has been persuaded by his advisers to recertify it. He has also, however, gotten the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran as a penalty for developing nuclear missiles, supporting terror, and undermining international order. The Iranian leadership responded with a threat to quit the JCPOA and renew uranium enrichment at a high level. Though the IAEA has not yet determined that Iran has violated the agreement, Western experts view Iran's behavior as problematic. They fear Iran could break the rules and renew its nuclear weapons program, and that it will be encouraged to do so by North Korea's provocative stance toward the US.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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