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TOP STORIES
At a meeting in Washington after Donald Trump pulled out
of the Iran nuclear deal in May, a senior U.S. official told European
diplomats that their efforts to save the deal by protecting EU
investment in the Islamic republic were pointless. "You
can't," the official said, and with just six weeks until the
next wave of U.S. sanctions hits Iran on Nov. 4, European diplomats
acknowledge he was right.
The European Union said late Monday that it would
establish a special payment channel to allow European and other
companies to legally continue financial transactions with Iran while
avoiding exposure to U.S. sanctions.
President Donald Trump will take aim at Iran over its
nuclear program and ambitions in the Middle East in his second
address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday. And he
said he has no plans to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani --
for now.
UANI IN THE NEWS
From the "smiling cleric," to the
"diplomat sheikh," Iran has been home to its fair share of
mullahs masquerading as moderate ministers. These same characters
have used slogans like "dialogue among civilizations" and
"prudence and hope" as diplomatic smoke signals to convey
that Tehran is ready to shred its revolutionary dogma and assume a
more conventional Westphalian existence. But, as the United Nations
General Assembly convenes for the first time since the U.S.
withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the
playbook of Iran's deep state-the supreme leader and the security
services-will be on full display: the weaponization of moderation
through deception and diplomatic doubles.
Mr. Pompeo will focus on two of the administration's
core foreign-policy priorities. He is scheduled to deliver a keynote
address at a Tuesday summit hosted by United Against Nuclear Iran, a
group that is critical of the 2015 nuclear accord. Mr. Bolton also is
scheduled to address the group.
In addition to Trump's speech and the Security Council
session, Bolton and Pompeo will address an event Tuesday afternoon
organized by a group called United Against a Nuclear Iran.
UANI's annual conference will feature policy experts and
senior government officials discussing the threat Iran poses to the
world. The group aims to inform and persuade policymakers that Iran's
nuclear threat should be dealt with by economic sanctions and
diplomacy.
In addition, reports out early Monday indicate that
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will either be sacked or
resign amid a row with the president. "U.S. messaging during
[the General Assembly] will be upended if Rosenstein is gone,"
Jason Brodsky, policy director of United Against a Nuclear Iran,
warned Monday. "It was already on shaky ground given [the
Kavanaugh] confirmation. Talk in New York will shift to disarray in
Washington rather than foreign policy priorities."
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The remaining parties to the Iran nuclear deal on Monday
agreed to keep working to maintain trade with Tehran despite
skepticism this is possible as U.S. sanctions to choke off Iranian
oil sales resume in November.
President Hassan Rouhani of Iran, visiting the United
States for the first time since President Trump exited the 2015 Iran
nuclear accord, said Monday that the only way his country would
consider new talks with Washington is for Mr. Trump to reverse
himself and honor the agreement.
With European companies abandoning Iran in the face of
growing U.S. pressure, European politicians backing Iran are counting
on oil demand from China, India and Turkey to keep the 2015 nuclear
deal alive.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran's currency has hit another record low against the
dollar, six weeks before the United States is due to reimpose
sanctions on Iranian oil exports that are Tehran's main revenue
source.
The United States' strategy of applying maximum pressure
on Iran will not work alone and carries the risk of a regional
escalation, Germany's Foreign minister Heiko Maas said.
Energy trader Vitol will stop doing business with Iran
after the United States re-imposes sanctions on Tehran's oil trade
from Nov. 4, a senior company executive said on Tuesday.
Swedish truckmaker AB Volvo has stopped assembling trucks
in Iran because U.S. sanctions are preventing it from being paid, a
spokesman for the company said on Monday. The sanctions against Iran,
reimposed on Aug. 6 by U.S. President Donald Trump after his decision
to pull out of a nuclear deal with Tehran, have forced companies
across Europe to reconsider their investments there.
Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil has replaced its Iranian
crude oil imports with supplies from other Middle Eastern producers
ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran in November, top company executives
said.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on
Monday that the attackers who killed 25 people at a military parade
were paid by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and Iran
would "severely punish" those behind the attack.
Amid wails and vows of revenge, thousands of Iranians on
Monday attended a mass funeral service for victims of a weekend
attack targeting a military parade that killed at least 25
people.
What the attack does show, however, is that Iranian
opponents of various stripes see this as a "unique
opportunity" to further their cause, according to Sanam Vakil,
an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of International Studies
Europe. "More people are recognizing that Iran is coming under
increasing pressure," she said.
The identity of the assailants remains unresolved, but
precedent suggests Iran could respond by targeting minorities at
home, assassinating oppositionists abroad, or attempting missile
strikes on jihadist areas in Syria or Iraq.
Reporting on Saturday's attack on a military parade in
the Iranian city of Ahwaz is missing a significant angle - oil.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
President Donald Trump enters the United Nations General
Assembly this week with America's closest allies frustrated over
fraying ties and the entire world wary as it awaits critical U.S.
decisions on Iran and North Korea. Again. As a newcomer at the annual
gathering of world leaders last year, Trump delivered a speech
bristling with threats and his repeated insistence that countries
should respect each other's sovereignty.
With oil bubbling higher, the United Nations this week
could provide the next catalyst for prices, with both President
Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani each speaking about
U.S. sanctions on Iran. Trump and Rouhani appear separately at the UN
General Assembly in New York Tuesday, against the backdrop of already
rising oil prices.
Former U.S. diplomat Eric S. Edelman and retired Air
Force Gen. Charles Wald both opposed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action for Iran's nuclear program but they, nevertheless, cautioned
against unilaterally pulling out of the agreement. They have now
co-authored a report for the post-pullout world. They deliver some
tough advice to makers of flabby policy - warning them against
unrealistic expectations and half-measures.
As President Hassan Rouhani is in New York to attend the
73rd session of the UN General Assembly, the Iranian public remains
divided on whether he should meet with his US counterpart, Donald
Trump.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
Soldiers in dress uniform lay prone in the street.
Others, apparently heavily armed, faced the assailants, then threw
themselves to the ground without firing back. Some just ran for their
lives. Captured on video and widely shared on social media, the
attack over the weekend on an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
parade in Iran was a humiliating blow.
An Iranian media outlet close to the country's hard-line
Revolutionary Guard published a video Tuesday threatening the
capitals of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with missile
attacks, further raising regional tensions after a weekend militant
attack on a military parade in Iran.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Monday dismissed
Iran's threats of revenge after Saturday's deadly attack at a
military parade in southwestern Iran and said it was
"ludicrous" for Tehran to allege U.S. involvement.
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards called U.S. President
Donald Trump "evil and adventurous" on Tuesday and accused
him of waging economic war, as Washington's reimposed sanctions
ramped up pressure on Tehran's economy.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
White House national security adviser John Bolton said
Monday that the United States wouldn't be leaving Syria so long as
Iranian forces continued to operate there, suggesting the Trump
administration had embraced an expanded mission in the embattled
country beyond the defeat of the Islamic State.
Hezbollah's weapons have become an issue related to
resolving the Syrian crisis and the situation in the region,
President Michel Aoun said in an interview published Monday.
IRAQ & IRAN
After Iran succeeded in pushing
through its preferred candidate for Iraq's parliament speaker, Tehran
continued its pressure to secure the position of second deputy
speaker, bringing the "score" to 2-0 against the US.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
A senior British official said that the meeting with
Rouhani would discuss consular cases, including that of
Zaghari-Ratcliffe who has been sentenced to five years in jail in
Iran.
President Donald Trump didn't bring up any new areas of
contention in his Monday meeting with French President Emmanuel
Macron, and the two found areas of agreement over Iran and Syria,
French officials said.
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