Friday, April 29, 2011

Eye on Iran: In Shift, Egypt Warms to Iran and Hamas, Israel's Foes































































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Top Stories


NYT: "Egypt is charting a new course in its foreign policy that has already begun shaking up the established order in the Middle East, planning to open the blockaded border with Gaza and normalizing relations with two of Israel and the West's Islamist foes, Hamas and Iran. Egyptian officials, emboldened by the revolution and with an eye on coming elections, say that they are moving toward policies that more accurately reflect public opinion. In the process they are seeking to reclaim the influence over the region that waned as their country became a predictable ally of Washington and the Israelis in the years since the 1979 peace treaty with Israel... Egypt's shifts are likely to alter the balance of power in the region, allowing Iran new access to a previously implacable foe and creating distance between itself and Israel, which has been watching the changes with some alarm." http://t.uani.com/jJl4ZJ

WSJ: "India is looking at using Turkish banks to pay Iran for crude oil, a senior Indian oil-ministry official said Wednesday, as a U.S. official said Turkey's commercial banks should avoid transactions with Iranian banks the U.S. has identified as conduits for financing of Tehran's nuclear program. The oil-ministry official's remarks came as the U.S. Treasury proposed regulations that would require U.S. financial institutions to divulge information about foreign bank customers that do business with Iran. Asked about the Indian proposal, David S. Cohen, acting U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, said he was unaware of the Indian proposal and therefore was unable to comment. But he said that in general, Turkey's cooperation with sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran was 'critical.' Mr. Cohen was in Istanbul, where he was meeting with senior government officials and banking executives... India imported 21.2 million tons of crude oil from Iran in the year ended March 31, 2010, about 13% of its total crude imports. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., which imports about 7.6 million tons of crude annually from Iran, said earlier this month that it is defaulting on payments for about two shipments every week from Iran." http://t.uani.com/eb6eCg

UPI: "When Iran, beset by international sanctions, had its annual oil and gas expo this month, there was no sign of the big Western oil companies and even less of the large-scale investment the Islamic Republic's energy industry desperately needs. And all the while, historic rival Iraq, its oil industry growing again after decades of decline, is threatening Iran's influence in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. When the 16th International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition opened April 19 in Tehran, Iranian officials claimed that 10 U.S. companies had defied U.N. and U.S. sanctions imposed in June 2010 to attend. But none could be found. 'Oil analysts believe the claims of U.S. attendance, whether or not a bluff, are an illustration of the country's desperation for Western investment and technology to develop and maintain its oil and gas fields,' the Financial Times observed." http://t.uani.com/kEW3Pz


Iran Disclosure Project



Human Rights

Radio Farda: "Family and supporters of jailed Iranian union leader Mansour Osanlu have renewed appeals for authorities to let him out for medical treatment, saying his health condition has worsened, RFE/RL's Radio Farda reports. Osanlu, the leader of Tehran's municipal bus service union, is serving a five-year prison term for acting against 'national security' in a case widely condemned by rights groups and international labor organizations. The International Transport Workers' Federation said today it had received news that Osanlu's heart condition has worsened and that he urgently needs surgery." http://t.uani.com/lyjBIj

Domestic Politics

Haaretz: "A senior Iranian cleric on Friday warned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to overestimate his power. Ahmadinejad is reportedly involved in a dispute with the country's clergy for allegedly having ignored the orders Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the dismissal of the intelligence chief. According to the Iranian constitution, Khamenei has the final say on all state matters and can even veto decisions by the president on certain cabinet matters. 'The president should know that the majority vote for him was not absolute but conditional on his obedience towards the orders by the supreme leadership,' the influential Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami said at the Friday prayer ceremony." http://t.uani.com/jFm0kC

Bloomberg: "Iran's foreign debt stood at $22 billion by the end of December, the state-run Mehr news agency reported, citing central bank figures. The amount comprised $10.6 billion of short-term and $11.4 billion of mid- and long-term debt, according to the report, published late yesterday." http://t.uani.com/mh81C9

Foreign Affairs


WashPost: "Still, the new openness between Egypt and Iran is a striking departure for two governments that have long disliked each other. Egypt gave asylum to the shah of Iran after the 1979 Iranian revolution, and he is buried in Cairo's al-Rifai Mosque. A main street in Tehran is named for Khalid Islambouli, one of Sadat's assassins. That enmity has been replaced by cautious flirtation. Diplomats and analysts in Cairo have said they do not expect full relations to resume immediately, but they view an eventual exchange of ambassadors as inevitable. 'There's no question that the foreign minister, both publicly and privately, wanted to sound like Egypt is open to this idea' of resuming relations with Iran, said a Western diplomat in Cairo who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss private diplomatic conversations. For weeks, circumspect overtures have been taking place via the state-owned media of each country. Last week, Iran's state-run Press TV reported that an ambassador to Egypt had been named, then quickly retracted the story. Elaraby, Egypt's new foreign minister, has said he wants to reset relations with Iran." http://t.uani.com/kviOg8

Opinion
& Analysis

Mea Cyrus in Tehran Bureau: "Iran seems to have benefited from the Arab revolts and regime changes in Africa and the Middle East. It is already enjoying a better relationship with Egypt -- gaining access to the Suez Canal for its warships and moving closer to an exchange of ambassadors, both for the first time since the immediate aftermath of the 1979 Revolution. However, Tehran is greatly concerned about losing Syria to the same trend of popular uprisings. Syria has been Iran's most important regional ally since the Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88. Syria has been Iran's main platform from which it has built formidable influence over the Arab-Israeli conflict, setting up Hezbollah in Lebanon and supporting Palestinian groups, mainly Hamas in Gaza. Tehran officials are beginning to wonder what their alternatives are in ensuring the maintenance of the status quo with Israel... Iran's policy towards the domino revolutions has been selective: support those that Tehran approves and reject or remain silent about those the ayatollahs do not look on favorably, as with Syria. The Iranian government and state-controlled and -aligned media have been loud in drawing attention to what is happening in Yemen and Bahrain. But when it comes to Syria, the silence is deafening. In the Syrain case, the policy, according to the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, becomes to step aside and leave the unrest as 'an internal affair.' ... A stable Syria is key to Iran's ability to keep Israel and the West under pressure regionally, as well as to maintain a strong posture internally. The 25 Bahman demonstrations aside, the Iranian opposition seems to have been unable to take advantage of the Arab uprisings to revive the call for protests, a wave triggered by the 2009 presidential elections. One wonders what might have happened in Iran if the post-election protests had not taken place and the pent-up energy was suddenly released under the effect of the Arab domino revolts. By the time Arabs took to the street, the Iranian government had managed to get a firm grip on the situation, the demonstrations this February notwithstanding. The Iranian government felt comfortable in dealing with the Arab domino effect simply by putting opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and their wives under house arrest, which did not lead to significant further protests by their followers and the general public. But now with the unrest in Syria yielding a bloody crackdown, Tehran is concerned that there might be some surprises at home as well. Depending on the outcome of events in Syria, it is possible that protests inside Iran might be reinvigorated, due to the close ties between Tehran and Damascus. Such concerns must have been why the Iranian regime scrambled to bolster Assad's rule. There are reports of Iran helping the Syrian government in many ways, including passing along well-tested tricks in how to suppress large crowds and cut off the main arteries that fuel mass protests." http://t.uani.com/iHZzSq






















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