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Reuters: "The United States plans to sanction Iran's petrochemical industry, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday, seeking to raise pressure on Tehran after fresh allegations it may be pursuing nuclear weapons. The sources said Washington wanted to send a strong signal after the U.N. nuclear watchdog issued a November 8 report saying Iran appeared to have worked on designing an atomic bomb and may still be secretly carrying out related research. The sources, who said the sanctions could be unveiled as early as Monday, said the Washington wanted to find a way to bar foreign companies from aiding Iran's petrochemical industry with the threat of depriving them access to the U.S. market. While European nations typically resent 'extra-territorial' U.S. sanctions on their companies, the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said in this case the Europeans would likely follow suit, though not immediately." http://t.uani.com/vDokZT
WSJ: "The Obama administration on Monday will name Iran, including its central bank, as a territory of 'primary money laundering concern,' say senior U.S. officials, in an effort to further pressure Tehran after recent disclosures about its alleged role in terrorism and nuclear weapons proliferation. The U.S. Treasury Department won't formally sanction Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, as many Republican and Democratic lawmakers are demanding. But U.S. officials said this new action would serve as a warning to governments and businesses in Europe, Asia and Latin America to wind down their ties to Bank Markazi and their purchases of Iranian crude oil, as even tougher actions likely will be coming down the road. 'This allows foreign countries to think about how to protect themselves and wean themselves off Iranian oil in a way that doesn't disrupt the energy markets,' said a senior U.S. official briefed on the new action. 'This says: You should be thinking quite seriously about cutting off your ties to the central bank,' the official said. The Obama administration Monday will also sanction 'dozens' of Iranian companies and organizations that are allegedly involved in supporting Tehran's nuclear program, including its development of centrifuge machines and a plutonium-producing reactor in the city of Arak. The U.S. will further announce new sanctions on the sales of goods and services utilized in both Iran's production of petrochemicals and crude-oil exports." http://t.uani.com/stLYlM
AP: "The U.N. General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution Friday deploring the alleged plot to kill Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States and pointed a finger at Iran. The 193-member world body didn't directly accuse Iran of involvement, but it called on the Islamic Republic to comply with international law requiring protection of diplomats and to cooperate in bringing those responsible for the assassination plot to justice. The United States alleged in October that agents linked to Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard were involved in a plot to kill Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir at his favorite restaurant in Washington. It has charged a U.S. citizen who holds an Iranian passport and an Iranian described as a member of an elite Revolutionary Guard unit, who is still at large. Iran, which has vehemently denied any involvement and called the allegations 'laughable,' tried to have all references to the Islamic Republic removed from the Saudi-sponsored resolution. But it received support from less than a dozen countries, and its attempts to amend the Saudi draft were defeated... U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice hailed the vote, saying it showed that 'Iran is increasingly isolated,' and noting that not one of the eight countries that joined Tehran in opposing the resolution was a predominantly Islamic or Arab nation." http://t.uani.com/txqzjK
Nuclear Program & Sanctions Reuters: "Iran's parliament will review relations with the U.N. nuclear watchdog over its latest report that said the Islamic state's nuclear activities appeared to have military dimensions, speaker Ali Larijani was quoted as saying on Sunday. The 35-nation governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution on Friday voicing "increasing concern" about Iran's nuclear program after an IAEA report saying Tehran appeared to have worked on designing an atom bomb. Iran says it is enriching uranium only for a planned network of civil nuclear power stations, not nuclear weapons, and has rejected IAEA director Yukiya Amano's report as politicized. '(Parliament's) national security and foreign policy committee has been appointed to review the manner of (Iran's) cooperation with the agency and relations with it,' Larijani said, according to the student news agency ISNA. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has played down talk of Iran withdrawing from the IAEA or the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that has become louder since the report, saying Tehran's response would be 'one of patience and vigilance.'" http://t.uani.com/sjrVoX
Reuters: "Iran's trade minister said Monday sanctions were hitting the economy but warned Western countries threatening to tighten the measures that they were harming their own interests. In a change of tone from Tehran's usual line that sanctions have not damaged the economy, Minister of Industry, Mine and Commerce Mehdi Ghazanfari said the West was losing out too. 'Sanctions are a lose-lose game in which both side make a loss. If they don't invest in our oil projects, they will lose an appealing market,' Ghazanfari told a news conference... Ghazanfari reiterated the stance that Iran had found alternatives to Western imports and investments, but did not deny the downside. 'Facing hardship in a fight is inevitable. I admit projects will get harder as our trading costs will go up, delays will hit projects and money transfer will get harder,' he said." http://t.uani.com/sDpoP4
WashPost: "A mysterious explosion at an Iranian military base last week was caused when a test of an experimental intercontinental ballistic missile failed, the brother of a senior Revolutionary Guard Corps commander who was killed in the incident said Saturday. The commander, Gen. Hassan Tehrani Moqadam, was killed Nov. 12, along with 20 other members of the elite corps, at a site 25 miles southwest of Tehran that officials have described as one of the Islamic Republic's main missile bases. At his funeral, Moqadam was called the 'founder' of Iran's missile program. Moqadam's brother, Mohammad Tehrani Moqadam, himself a Guard officer, told the official government newspaper Iran on Saturday that the commander had also founded the missile unit of the Lebanese Hezbollah group, was involved in Iran's space program and had died while conducting a final test on a missile." http://t.uani.com/uIBzr7
AP: "Satellite surveillance has shown an increase in activity at an Iranian site suspected of links to alleged secret work on nuclear weapons, officials tell The Associated Press. One of the officials cited intelligence from his home country, saying it appeared Tehran is trying to cover its tracks by sanitizing the site and removing any evidence of nuclear research and development. Counterparts from two other countries confirmed sightings of increased activity but said they did not have reasons to believe it was linked to such efforts. Their focus is on a structure believed to be housing a large metal chamber at a military site that a Nov. 8 International Atomic Energy Agency report described as being used for nuclear-related explosives testing. Officials from the three IAEA member countries say that recent satellite imagery of the site, at Parchin, southwest of Tehran, shows increased activity, including an unusual number of vehicles arriving and leaving. One of the officials described the movements, recorded Nov.4-5, as unusual and said his country views it as evidence that Iran is trying to 'clean' the area of traces of weapons-related work." http://t.uani.com/upOHfo
WSJ: "The Obama administration pressed Iran to account for a discrepancy of nearly 20 kilograms in its reporting to the United Nations' nuclear agency on how much natural uranium metal it has in its stockpile. U.S. diplomats told a quarterly gathering Friday of the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board that Washington fears this nuclear material could be diverted for use in Tehran's weapons programs. Natural uranium metal can specifically be utilized as a surrogate material to conduct simulated tests of nuclear detonations, according to U.S. officials. It can also be used to produce high-explosive weapons, such as armor-piercing rockets. The IAEA calculated 20 kilos more than Iran had reported. 'It remains to be seen whether this discrepancy could ultimately represent another piece in the puzzle the IAEA is assembling to show Iran's nuclear weapons-related activities,' said Glyn Davies, U.S. ambassador to the IAEA. 'The secretariat and the board should accept no delay in Iran's response.'" http://t.uani.com/rF3Fcw
ABC: "The United States and its British and Canadian allies are preparing to roll out a coordinated set of sanctions against Iran on Monday amid growing concern that Tehran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, sources tell ABC News. U.S. officials familiar with the plans say they target Iran's nuclear sector as well as plugging key gaps that have allowed Iran to work around existing sanctions on its energy and financial sectors. The United Kingdom and Canada are both expected to announce unilateral measures to limit Iran's access to their economies, with the UK essentially cutting off Iran's access to its financial sector. European Union ministers are expected to meet on December 1 to consider their own sanctions." http://t.uani.com/rQ5JL5
Reuters: "The White House said on Saturday that Iran is facing an unprecedented degree of isolation, with major world powers united in their opposition to Tehran getting a nuclear weapon. 'Russia, China and the United States I can tell you share a similar goal, and that is to not seeing the Iranians move toward the development of nuclear weapons,' U.S. national security adviser Tom Donilon told reporters. 'The degree of isolation really is unprecedented,' he said, referring a Friday vote by the United Nations nuclear watchdog IAEA expressing concerns about Iran's nuclear program. President Barack Obama discussed Tehran's nuclear ambitions with Russian and Chinese leaders last week during an Asia-Pacific summit he hosted in Hawaii." http://t.uani.com/rJSxVZ
Domestic Politics
Reuters: "Iranian authorities shut down a reformist newspaper on Sunday after it published a scathing attack by an aide to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the president's rival conservatives, the latest sign of a split in the highest echelons of the Islamic Republic. The aide, media adviser Ali Akbar Javanfekr, was also sentenced to a year in jail and banned from journalism over a separate publication which was deemed to have offended public decency, the semi-official Fars news agency reported. Both incidents spotlighted a feud between Ahmadinejad's camp and others in the conservative establishment that runs the world's fifth biggest oil exporter and faces increasing international pressure over its nuclear activities. Tehran's prosecutor's office ordered the daily Etemad to close for two months for 'disseminating lies and insults to officials in the establishment,' according to Fars." http://t.uani.com/tu79yg
Reuters: "The Iranian army is conducting a four-day training exercise to test its defenses, state TV reported on Saturday, amid rising international tensions over Iran's nuclear program. Press TV said the war games started on Friday and were taking place over 800,000 square km in the east of the country. 'The initial stage of the drills will assess the units' performance in setting up primary and secondary command centers and stationing tactical and swift reaction divisions,' Press TV said. Both Israel and the United States say they do not rule out striking Iran militarily if other means fail to stop the nuclear work that Tehran says is entirely peaceful." http://t.uani.com/vgZQFY
Foreign Affairs
AP: "Israel's defense minister warns that a nuclear-armed Iran will become inevitable in less than a year. Ehud Barak told CNN in an interview aired Sunday he believes that Iran is widening its nuclear program, and it will become impossible to stop it in 'two quarter(s) or three quarter(s)' of a year. He did not say when he expects Iran to actually possess nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/t4kMkj
WashPost: "The Obama administration is investigating whether Iran supplied the Libyan government of Moammar Gaddafi with hundreds of special artillery shells for chemical weapons that Libya kept secret for decades, U.S. officials said. The shells, which Libya filled with highly toxic mustard agent, were uncovered in recent weeks by revolutionary fighters at two sites in central Libya. Both are under heavy guard and round-the-clock surveillance by drones, U.S. and Libyan officials said. The discovery of the shells has prompted a probe, led by U.S. intelligence, into how the Libyans obtained them; several sources said early suspicion had fallen on Iran. 'We are pretty sure we know' the shells were custom-designed and produced in Iran for Libya, said a senior U.S. official, one of several who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the accusation." http://t.uani.com/segsLZ
YnetNews: "The revenues of an Iranian-run global narcotics network is being transferred to terrorist organizations, London-based The Times newspaper quoted former Revolutionary Guard officials as saying on Friday. According to the sources, members of the elite guard took over the Islamic Republic's drug smuggling industry, and are using the revenues - estimated to reach dozens of billions of dollars - to build a solid support base for global crime networks and terror organizations acting against the West. The report noted that hundreds of people are executed in Iran annually for drug smuggling and drug possession, as part of the administration's hard-line policy against narcotics. However, behind the stage, the Revolutionary Guard is engaged in an extremely profitable business that is fueled by the smuggling of heroin, opium and methamphetamines." http://t.uani.com/sIyJrv
Reuters: "Iran could use oil as a political tool in the event of any future conflict over its nuclear programme, Iran's energy minister told Al Jazeera television. Tension over Iran's nuclear programme has increased since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Nov. 8 that Tehran appears to have worked on designing a bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran has warned it will respond to any attack by hitting Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf and analysts say Tehran could hit Western interests by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil passes. 'We don't consider crude oil as a political tool, however if necessary, we'll use it as a tool any way we need to,' Rostam Qasemi said in response to a question in an interview translated into English by the Qatar-based news channel." http://t.uani.com/uLux3N
Opinion & Analysis
Reuel Marc Gerecht & Mark Dubowitz in NYT: "The release last week of the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran's progressing nuclear program has to make one wonder whether more than 30 years of sanctions have helped to thwart - or even stall - the country's nuclear designs. There is no evidence to suggest that economic coercion has ever made Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rethink the risks-versus-rewards calculus for developing atomic weapons. And the truly crippling sanctions that might have more of an effect would never be accepted by Western politicians, who are fearful of higher oil costs and of being seen as too harsh on the Iranian people. But giving up on sanctions is not the answer. Instead, we have to make sanctions smarter, more mutually reinforcing. The sale of oil - about 2.3 million barrels are exported every day - accounts for more than 50 percent of Iran's national budget. Under current American law, the importation of Iranian oil is prohibited, but gasoline refined from Iranian petroleum is not. Sanctions obviously need to hit this industry harder. But they must also avoid causing a significant increase in petroleum prices. If the United States were to impose an international embargo on Iranian crude, the price would skyrocket, providing Ayatollah Khamenei with a windfall profit. Tehran could simply sell less oil and make more money, while American consumers would suffer. When unrest in Libya took its 1.3 million barrels per day of crude off the market, Americans saw a spike in oil prices. But effective energy sanctions don't have to raise oil prices; they can actually do the opposite. Washington just has to learn how to leverage greed. We should bar from operating in the United States any European and most Asian energy companies that deal in Iranian oil and work with the Iranian central bank, Revolutionary Guards or National Oil Company. At the same time, however, we should allow companies from countries that have little interest in Iran's nuclear program, or its pro-democracy Green Movement, and that are willing to risk their access to American markets - mainly Chinese companies - to continue buying Iranian crude in whatever quantity they desire. This would reduce the number of buyers of Iranian petroleum, without reducing the quantity of oil on the market. With fewer buyers to compete with, the Chinese companies would have significant negotiating leverage with which to extract discounts from Tehran. The government could lose out on tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue, loosening its hold on power. This approach may seem distasteful to some, because it does, in a sense, reward bad Chinese behavior. But the objective of sanctions is to cause real economic pain in Tehran, not to make Americans feel moral." http://t.uani.com/rOYudM
Richard Weitz in The Diplomat: "After surprising many observers and voting for an additional round of UNSC sanctions last summer, Beijing and Moscow have both regressed to their mean. While calling on Iran to refrain from developing nuclear weapons and make its nuclear work more transparent, they have been resisting any new sanctions, whether by the UNSC or individual Western governments... Neither China nor Russia want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, but Russian and Chinese opposition to imposing additional sanctions on Iran is unsurprising. Both governments have consistently defended the right of Iran and other countries to pursue nuclear activities for peaceful purposes, such as civilian energy production. China's defense white paper, 'China's National Defense in 2008,' published in early 2009, affirms that, 'China maintains that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved peacefully by political and diplomatic means.' In 2007, then-President Vladimir Putin concisely characterized Moscow's position as follows: 'We have no evidence of Iran's intention to produce nuclear weapons. Therefore, we proceed from the premise that Iran has no such plans. But we share the concern of other partners and believe that Iran's programs must be transparent.' Putin will presumably continue this position after he returns to the presidency next year. Chinese and Russian officials may want to change the behavior of the Iranian regime, but they both fear regime change in Tehran. They are well aware from the 2009 public protests that, should the opposition ever come to power in Tehran, they wouldn't view past Sino-Russian backing for Ahmadinejad that kindly. The protesters were frequently shouting 'Death to Russia' and criticizing China due to Sino-Russian assistance to the Iranian authorities' repression of the peaceful demonstrators. Opposition leaders and bloggers denounced China and Russia for helping the Iranian regime suppress Internet freedoms and suppress public protests. They also objected to the Chinese and Russian governments' rapid congratulations of Ahmadinejad for winning the disputed 2009 presidential ballot. They considered the elections a fraudulent facade in which their votes for opposition leaders were discarded. Economic considerations also shape China's and Russia's response. Throughout the past decade, Chinese and Russian diplomats have repeatedly sought to soften UNSC sanctions, especially those that might constrain their countries' energy and economic collaboration with Iran. Thanks to hard bargaining, they've managed to exempt their main economic interests Iran from existing UN economic sanctions... China and Russia also both have economic and diplomatic interests in Iran's continued alienation from the West. Both countries have benefited from the reluctance of Western companies to invest in Iran due to the numerous unilateral and multilateral sanctions imposed on its government for its nuclear activities, past support for terrorism, and controversial regional polices towards Israel, Lebanon, and other countries. These tensions preserve China and Russia as Iran's major economic partners. In their absence, Iran's economy would likely return to its pre-2000s pattern of trading mostly with Western countries and hosting mostly Western foreign direct investment. Meanwhile, the Iranian-Western confrontations also divert Western diplomatic and military resources away from Europe and Asia, regions respectively more important to Russia and China. Western and Iranian efforts to secure the support of Beijing and Moscow for their positions also enhances Chinese and Russian diplomacy by providing them with leverage over both. They can press Western governments for reciprocal concessions regarding other issues as well as encourage Tehran to prevent Iranians from assisting Islamist terrorists in the South Caucuses or Xinxiang. For these reasons, Chinese and Russian officials may not be overly disappointed by the failure of the Obama administration's outreach efforts to engage Iran." http://t.uani.com/u6AQ9k
Richard Grenell in WSJ: "On Nov. 13, President Obama made some remarkable statements. 'When I came into office,' he said at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Honolulu, 'the world was divided and Iran was unified around its nuclear program.' Now, he said, 'the world is united and Iran is isolated. And because of our diplomacy and our efforts, we have, by far, the strongest sanctions on Iran that we've ever seen.' Mr. Obama added, 'China and Russia were critical to making that happen. Had they not been willing to support those efforts in the United Nations, we would not be able to see the kind of progress that we've made.' This was pure spin. The United Nations Security Council actually began instituting resolutions and sanctions in 2006, agreed to and voted on by all 15 members, that called upon Iran to stop enriching uranium. In its nearly three years in office, the Obama administration has helped pass just one of those resolutions-in June 2009. Only 12 of the 15 members of the Security Council voted in favor of it. Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon did not. The simple fact is that the world is less unified on Iran now than it was under President George W. Bush. True enough, Mr. Obama may hear fewer complaints about hard-charging U.S. foreign policies than his predecessor. But silence is not cooperation. The Bush administration got five Security Council resolutions passed on Iran starting in 2006. Three were sanctions resolutions. The Security Council was unanimous on two of the votes and lost only one country's support (Indonesia) in the third vote in 2008. In total, the Bush team lost the support of one country in its three sanctions resolutions while the Obama team lost the support of three countries in one resolution. Two views are emerging in response to the International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report on Iran's nuclear weapons. While one camp believes the Iranians are close to obtaining nuclear weapons, the other side believes they haven't mastered the technology and that time still remains to work out a diplomatic, non-military solution. The Obama team falls in the second camp. It is calling for more diplomacy and more international pressure-as if U.S. diplomats haven't tried to convince Iran or its neighbors that its pursuit of a nuclear weapon is not a good idea. And that's what's so dangerous about the president's spin. His administration professes that the world is unified in pressuring Iran, but what the international community is really unified about is doing nothing." http://t.uani.com/tjlchm |
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