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AP: "Diplomats on Monday confirmed a report that Iran has begun uranium enrichment at an underground bunker and said the news is particularly worrying because the site is being used to make material that can be upgraded more quickly for use in a nuclear weapon than the nation's main enriched stockpile. The diplomats said that centrifuges at the Fordo site near Iran's holy city of Qom are churning out uranium enriched to 20 percent. That level is higher than the 3.5 percent being made at Iran's main enrichment plant and can be turned into fissile warhead material faster and with less work... Fordo's location increases concerns. The facility is a hardened tunnel and is protected by air defense missile batteries and the Revolutionary Guard. The site is located about 20 miles (32 kilometers) north of Qom, the religious nerve center of Iran's ruling system. The semiofficial Mehr news agency quoted Iran's nuclear chief, Fereidoun Abbasi, as saying Sunday that 'the enemy doesn't have the ability to damage it.'" http://t.uani.com/wIFnVS
NYT: "Iran's top nuclear official announced this weekend that the country was on the verge of starting production at its second major uranium enrichment site, in a defiant declaration that its nuclear program would continue despite new international sanctions restricting its oil revenue... The imminent opening of the enrichment site - the Fordo plant, near the city of Qum - confronts the United States and its allies with difficult choices about how far to go to limit Iran's nuclear abilities. The new facility is buried deep underground on a well-defended military site and is considered far more resistant to airstrikes than the existing enrichment site at Natanz, limiting what Israeli officials, in particular, consider an important deterrent to Iran's nuclear aims. When the existence of the Qum facility was first disclosed by President Obama and his counterparts in France and Britain in the fall of 2009, American officials expressed doubts that Iran would ever go forward with the facility. But once it goes into operation, the chances of disabling it, in the words of one former top Israeli official, 'diminish very dramatically.'" http://t.uani.com/xPQkpq
AP: "An Iranian court has convicted an American man of working for the CIA and sentenced him to death, state radio reported Monday. Iran charges that as a former U.S. Marine, Amir Mirzaei Hekmati received special training and served at U.S. military bases in Iraq and Afghanistan before heading to Iran for his alleged intelligence mission. The radio report did not say when the verdict was issued. Under Iranian law, he has 20 days to appeal. Hekmati, 28, was born in Arizona. His family is of Iranian origin. His father, who lives in Michigan, said his son is not a CIA spy and was visiting his grandmothers in Iran when he was arrested. The U.S. State Department has demanded his release." http://t.uani.com/xcsHZR
Nuclear Program & Sanctions AP: "Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says Iran is laying the groundwork for making nuclear weapons someday, but is not yet building a bomb and called for continued diplomatic and economic pressure to persuade Tehran not to take that step. As he has previously, Panetta cautioned against a unilateral strike by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities, saying the action could trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces in the region. 'We have common cause here' with Israel, he said. 'And the better approach is for us to work together.' ... The comments suggest the White House's assessment of Iran's nuclear strategy has not changed in recent months, despite warnings from advocates of military action that time is running out to prevent Tehran from becoming a nuclear-armed state." http://t.uani.com/wVOhkl
LAT: "Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned Iran on Sunday that any attempt to carry out its threat to choke off the world's oil supply by closing the Strait of Hormuz would draw a quick U.S. military response. 'We made very clear that the United States will not tolerate the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz,' Panetta said. 'That's another red line for us and that we will respond to them.' Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that the Iranians could block tanker traffic 'for a period of time' in the narrow strait that is a key artery through which about one-fifth of world's oil supply flows. 'We've invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that,' Dempsey said. 'But we would take action and reopen the strait.'" http://t.uani.com/xu3Y65
Reuters: "Iran announced on Friday new military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, but the West has readied plans to use strategic oil stocks to replace almost all Gulf oil lost if Iran blocks the waterway, industry sources and diplomats told Reuters. They said senior executives of the International Energy Agency (IEA) discussed on Thursday an existing plan to release up to 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of government-owned oil stored in the United States, Europe, Japan and other importers. This rate of release could be kept up for a month, offsetting most of the 16 million barrels a day of crude passing through the world's most important shipping lane that could be halted by an Iranian blockade." http://t.uani.com/zH4PAc
Bloomberg: "A European Union embargo on Iranian oil will probably be phased in to protect countries with the greatest reliance on imports from the country, according to an EU official familiar with the talks. EU foreign ministers are likely to agree to block Iranian oil imports at a meeting in Brussels on Jan. 30, and working groups are negotiating the details of how the embargo will be imposed, said the official, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. Countries with the biggest dependence on Iranian oil, including Italy, Greece and Spain, have raised concerns over how existing contracts should be treated when the embargo is imposed, the official said. Phasing in the sanctions would help to ensure that Iran, rather than the European countries, loses out as a result of the embargo, he said." http://t.uani.com/x8odv8
Reuters: "An Iranian oil official has confirmed that Iran owes Italian energy major Eni some $2 billion worth of oil that Rome is concerned could be put at risk by a European Union embargo on crude imports from the Islamic Republic. Mohsen Ghamsari, head of the international affairs office at the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), told the semi-official Mehr news agency the debt would be settled in accordance with existing contracts. 'Based on the buyback contracts, this amount will be paid off to this Italian company,' he was quoted as saying." http://t.uani.com/xxq3Ns
Reuters: "Indian refiners and oil ministry officials are meeting on Monday to discuss alternative methods to pay for Iranian oil imports should an existing mechanism via Turkey's Halkbank be halted under U.S. sanctions against Tehran. Financial sanctions signed into law by President Barack Obama on New Year's Eve make it difficult for pay for Iranian oil. The European Union is expected to announce tough measures of its own at the end of the month. 'The meeting is on finance related matters as far as supplies from Iran are concerned. We think Halkbank will soon stop helping us because of sanctions,' an industry source said on condition of anonymity." http://t.uani.com/zwC1ql
WSJ: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner headed to Asia Sunday to seek support from China and Japan for boosting financial pressure on Iran in an effort to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. But winning their help could be complicated, coming shortly after the U.S. publicly chastised both countries for their currency policies and amid escalating trade tensions with Beijing. The Obama administration is attempting to squeeze Iran's government by curtailing its oil revenue." http://t.uani.com/wnsXQo
Domestic Politics
Reuters: "A senior Central Bank of Iran official has denied rumors that the bank's governor has resigned, the ISNA news agency reported Saturday, in a week when the currency hit a record low amid rising inflation and concerns about tighter economic sanctions. 'Mr (Mahmoud) Bahmani will remain firmly in his job and whoever has published this false report has made a mistake,' ISNA quoted a deputy central bank governor, Ebrahim Darvishi, as saying." http://t.uani.com/y1nrAm
Reuters: "Iran's parliament cracked down on unofficial money traders Sunday after new U.S. sanctions helped trigger a currency crash as Iranians rushed to buy dollars. The rial lost about 20 percent of its value against the dollar before the central bank intervened last week to try to stem further losses by injecting hard currency into the market. At a special parliamentary debate on the currency crisis, lawmakers passed a measure imposing legal penalties on touts who sell foreign currencies outside official exchange offices and banks where rates can be subjected to government controls." http://t.uani.com/xCHkRb
Foreign Affairs
NYT: "Senior Iranian military officials this week bluntly warned an American aircraft carrier that it would confront the 'full force' of the Iranian military if it tried to re-enter the Persian Gulf. On Friday, Fazel Ur Rehman, a 28-year-old Iranian fisherman, had a warmer greeting for the carrier task force. 'It is like you were sent by God,' said Mr. Rehman, huddled under a blanket in this vessel's stern. 'Every night we prayed for God to rescue us. And now you are here.' In a naval action that mixed diplomacy, drama and Middle Eastern politics, the aircraft carrier John C. Stennis broke up a high-seas pirate attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, then sailors from an American destroyer boarded the pirates' mother ship and freed 13 Iranian hostages who had been held captive there for more than a month." http://t.uani.com/wrObW4
WSJ: "Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad began a four-day tour of Latin America on Sunday, hoping that meetings with anti-American leaders like Venezuela's Hugo Chávez can provide some moral support at a time when Iran faces growing international isolation over its nuclear program. The Iranian leader was arrived late Sunday in Venezuela, before heading to Nicaragua on Tuesday to attend former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega's inauguration for his second term as president. Mr. Admadinejad ends the visit with brief stops in Communist Cuba and Ecuador. The visit comes amid growing international pressure for Iran to drop its nuclear program, which the U.S. and Europe say is aimed at building nuclear bombs." http://t.uani.com/zyMiME
Opinion & Analysis
Meir Javedanfar in The Diplomat: "How will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei react? This is surely the question Western policymakers are asking themselves over the latest standoff between Iran and the United States. With tensions rising in the Strait of Hormuz following Iran's threat to blockade the waterway, and the U.S. insistence that this won't be allowed to happen, it's clear that unless Iran's supreme leader achieves a quick victory through a sudden spike in oil prices, something which would likely pressure Barack Obama to cancel new sanctions on Iran, he could be compelled to act on the country's threats. With Iran's currency tumbling, and a rise in oil prices uncertain, the likelihood of an Iranian backlash can't be ignored. Certainly, the recent standoff with the United States has damaged Iran's deterrence posture. In less than a week, Khamenei challenged Obama twice and lost out on both occasions. First there was the threat that 'not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz' if new sanctions are imposed by the U.S. and others. But sanctions were imposed anyway, with no apparent consequences. This move was followed by another threat, with the Islamic Republic this time vowing to take action 'if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier into the Gulf.' Within hours, though, the U.S. government met that challenge by stating that it would keep sending carrier strike groups through the Persian Gulf regardless of the threats. But while the potential international fallout of all this has been discussed, there's been virtually no comment on the domestic implications of Khamenei's loss of face. The reality is that the Iranian regime needs to show muscle abroad. Failure to do so could be interpreted as a sign of weakness by its opponents at home, and could even create division among the leadership's supporters. The supreme leader is keen to avoid either of these things, not least because in two months' time the government will be hosting a new round of parliamentary (Majlis) elections. These polls will be the first elections since the tumultuous presidential elections of 2009. And Khamenei has no choice but to go ahead with them - canceling isn't an option. The postponement of last year's city council elections to 2013 (they will now take place alongside the next presidential elections) has already been interpreted as a sign of regime insecurity. To do the same with the upcoming Majlis elections, which are far more important, would give the opposition an even bigger boost. Hardliners within the regime would never forgive him for it. With this in mind, then, the supreme leader has already started to take action to mitigate the risks. The imprisonment of former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi for eight years, and the jailing of Ayatollah Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh for six months, are part of the preparations. Both were critics of the events surrounding the 2009 elections, and both have their own supporters. Should the new Majles elections face criticism as fraudulent as well, the regime would have felt under significant pressure. Better, then, to lock them away to keep them from making trouble. But the reality for Khamenei is that flexing his muscles at home is unlikely to be enough. And, in terms of targets abroad, Israel surely could be at the top of Khamenei's wish list. After all, striking the United States would only rally support around any Obama election year response, something Khamenei is surely desperate to avoid. Of course, Arab targets are another possibility, but one would imagine that Iran is loath to do something that would see Tehran further isolated in the region." http://t.uani.com/winwrx |
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