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AFP: "Iran is to hold fresh military exercises in and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz within weeks, the naval commander of its powerful Revolutionary Guards was quoted as saying on Friday. The manoeuvres are to be held in the Iranian calendar month that runs from January 21 to February 19, the Fars news agency quoted Ali Fadavi as saying. They will underline Iran's assertion that it has 'full control over the Strait of Hormuz area and controls all movements in it,' Fadavi added. The announcement -- which narrowed down a timeframe for the exercises the Guards had previously only given as 'soon' -- risked aggravating tensions with the West over the strait." http://t.uani.com/zgAz4u
NYT: "Iranian officials struck a defiant posture on Thursday in response to a proposed oil embargo by the European Union, calling the intensified efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program, including new sanctions by United States, tantamount to 'an economic war.' ... Iran will 'weather the storm,' Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on Thursday, adding that he was 'not concerned at all' about the imminent ban on its oil by the European Union. The economic minister, Shamseddin Hosseini, likened the ban to 'an economic war.' 'Iran, with divine assistance, has always been ready to counter such hostile actions, and we are not concerned at all about the sanctions,' Mr. Salehi said at a news conference in Tehran. 'Just as we have weathered the storm in the last 32 years with the hold of God and efforts that we make, we will be able to survive this as well.'" http://t.uani.com/wgWuLL
AP: "The latest U.S. sanctions on Iran have exposed both the depth of the country's economic pain and new fault lines within the government. In the two days after President Barack Obama approved sanctions targeting Iran's central bank and oil sectors, the value of currency plunged 13 percent. The central bank chief followed that with public criticism of the government for interfering in markets. Adding to the pressure on Iran over its nuclear ambitions, the European Union on Thursday was weighing similar sanctions in tandem with the U.S. Analysts say the new measures may not force the hardline government to back down on its nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at developing weapons while Iran maintains it is for peaceful purposes." http://t.uani.com/yBsnhe
Nuclear Program & Sanctions Reuters: "Iran faced the prospect of cutbacks in its oil sales to China and Japan as new measures to block Tehran's crude exports over its nuclear program appeared to be driving its economy to the wall. The developments in Asia on Thursday followed news 24 hours earlier that EU leaders had agreed to halt European purchases of Iranian crude. China, Iran's biggest trade partner, had already cut its purchases of Iranian oil by more than half this month and would extend the cuts to February, a Beijing-based trader who deals with Iranian oil said. Japan would consider cutbacks in its Iranian oil purchases to secure a waiver from new U.S. sanctions signed into law on New Year's Eve by President Barack Obama, a government source said. Between them, China, the EU and Japan buy about half of Iran's exports of 2.6 million barrels of oil per day." http://t.uani.com/wCzcWj
WSJ: "Japan, under intensifying pressure to join sanctions proposed by the U.S. and Europe, is bracing for the possibility of curbing its imports of Iranian oil, with some refiners seeking other sources. A Japanese government official said Thursday the country will likely have to reduce imports from Iran substantially, though it hopes to avoid an embargo that would completely cut off the country that provided 8.8% of Japan's crude-oil imports over the first 11 months of 2011. Meanwhile, an executive of Japan's petroleum association said refiners are already looking for oil to replace some of what the country now buys from Iran." http://t.uani.com/x6ZDEq
Reuters: "A European Union embargo on Iranian crude oil imports could take a few months to come into effect because of a push by some EU capitals for a delay that they say is necessary to shield their debt-stricken economies, EU diplomats said on Friday. EU capitals have agreed in principle to an embargo on Iranian oil, part of Western efforts to ratchet up pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program. Details of how the ban would be imposed are under discussion in Brussels, with the goal of having a final decision by the end of the month. Diplomats said EU capitals have proposed what's being called a 'grace period' on existing contracts of one to 12 months. Greece, which depends heavily on Iranian crude, is pushing for the longest delay, they said. Britain, France, the Netherlands and Germany want a maximum grace period of three months, the diplomats said." http://t.uani.com/zeFBHH
WSJ: "India may face problems in making payments to Iran for crude supplies because of recent moves by the U.S. and the European Union to curb Tehran's nuclear program, a senior Indian official said Friday... India gets about three-quarters of its crude needs through imports, and Iran is its second-largest supplier after Saudi Arabia... The Indian Express newspaper Friday reported that India held an emergency meeting Thursday to consider ways to ensure uninterrupted crude oil supplies from Iran after indications from Turkey's state-owned Halkbank that it would have to stop settling payments on behalf of Indian companies." http://t.uani.com/ADn3BD
AFP: "The US State Department said Thursday it was mulling a request from US lawmakers to probe whether China's Huawei Technologies and other telecom firms are violating US sanctions on Iran. Last month, six lawmakers sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, urging her to look into press reports that Huawei had sold technology to Iran allowing Tehran to monitor people's locations via their cell phones. 'Such services may be a critical tool for the Iranian government in disrupting and restricting the speech of its people,' said the lawmakers, including senior Republican Senator Jon Kyl. US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland told reporters on Thursday that the State Department had received the letter, dated December 22, and was 'following up on it.'" http://t.uani.com/x325BM
Human Rights
IHR: "Eight prisoners have been hanged in three different Iranian provinces yesterday and today, reported the Iranian state media. According to the official and unofficial reports at least 33 people have been executed in the first five days of January 2012... According to the state run Iranian news agency Fars, three prisoners were hanged publicly in the Azadi (Liberty) Square of Kermanshah, west of Iran." http://t.uani.com/zurktq
Domestic Politics
WashPost: "At a time when U.S. officials are increasingly confident that economic and political pressure alone may succeed in curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, the mood here has turned bleak and belligerent as Iranians prepare grimly for a period of prolonged hardship and, they fear, war. This stark contrast has been evident in the Iranian capital this week as a top military commander declared a 'critical point' in the country's long feud with the West and ordinary Iranians stocked up on essential supplies. Merchants watched helplessly as the Iranian currency, the rial, shed more than a third of its value, triggering huge increases in the prices of imported goods. 'I will tell you what this is leading to: war,' said a merchant in Tehran's popular Paytakht bazaar who gave his name only as Milad. 'My family, friends and I - we are all desperate.'" http://t.uani.com/yBJjmK
Foreign Affairs
WSJ: "Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Thursday reassured Iran that Ankara wouldn't allow Turkish soil to be used for any attack against a neighbor, during a trip to Tehran focused on averting a Sunni-Shia 'cold war' in the region. Mr. Davutoglu's two-day visit highlights Ankara's increasingly delicate position, caught between Iran-a neighbor capable of causing Turkey significant economic and strategic damage-on one side, and Western allies determined to end Tehran's alleged nuclear-weapons program on the other, analysts said." http://t.uani.com/xTud3c
Opinion & Analysis
Alireza Nader & James Dobbins in IHT: "Iran's threats to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to the latest American-led sanctions may be empty posturing. Still, Iran's slow march toward a nuclear weapons capability has dramatically increased tensions between Washington and Tehran. The Obama administration has not taken the option of a military strike off the table, and one must assume that the Iranians have not done so either. In these circumstances, it is important to realistically judge the nature and extent of the Iranian threat. For all its bluster, the Iranian regime is more vulnerable than at any time in its 32-year history. Internally, Iran is constrained by deep political divisions, civil strife and a woeful economy. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has directly challenged the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while Khamenei has spoken of eliminating the presidency. The life of the ordinary Iranian becomes more precarious every day, with rising unemployment, inflation, state repression, and the country's growing international isolation. The regime has maintained a superficial sense of stability through repression... The Iranian regime needs to be persuaded that it will become more isolated, more penalized and more vulnerable to internal unrest if it chooses to test and deploy nuclear weapons. Unilateral U.S. or Israeli action cannot produce this effect. Only a united international front, backed by ever tougher sanctions, and the promise of more to come if Iran crossed such a threshold, can make the regime think twice before doing so. Over the longer term, Iran will be brought into full conformity with its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty only under a new and more moderate regime. The best way for the United States to promote such a development is to support the democratization of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen and Syria, where regimes have fallen or are tottering, and where the United States has the access and the potential influence it lacks inside Iran. While awaiting such a change in Iran, the United States must continue to demonstrate to the regime that crossing the nuclear threshold will only increase its isolation, impoverish its population and further increase its vulnerability to internally driven regime change." http://t.uani.com/x1sHtO
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