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Top Stories
AFP: "US President Barack Obama Saturday signed into law tough new sanctions targeting Iran's central bank and financial sector, in a move that could intensify a brewing Gulf showdown. The measures, meant to punish Iran for its nuclear program, were contained in a mammoth $662 billion defense bill, which Obama signed despite having reservations that it ties his hands on setting foreign policy. The sanctions are meant to hit Iran's crucial oil sector and require foreign firms to make a choice between doing business with Tehran's financial sector and central bank or the mighty US economy and financial sector. Foreign central banks which deal with the Iranian central bank on oil transactions could also face restrictions, sparking fears of damage to US ties with key nations such as Russia and China which trade with Iran." http://t.uani.com/voaTyD
AP: "Iranian scientists have produced the nation's first nuclear fuel rod, a feat of engineering the West has doubted Tehran capable of, the country's nuclear agency said Sunday. The announcement marks another step in Tehran's efforts to achieve proficiency in the entire nuclear fuel cycle -- from exploring uranium ore to producing nuclear fuel -- despite U.N. sanctions and measures by the U.S. and others to get it to halt aspects of its atomic work that could provide a possible pathway to weapons production. Tehran has long said it is forced to seek a way to manufacture the fuel rods on its own, since the sanctions ban it from buying them on foreign markets. Nuclear fuel rods are tubes containing pellets of enriched uranium that provide fuel for nuclear reactors." http://t.uani.com/viZHHn
Reuters: "Iran says it has successfully test-fired a long-range missile during naval exercises in the Gulf, flexing its military muscle to show it could target Israel and US bases in the region. The announcement came a day after Iran claimed to have successfully tested a new medium-range, ground-to-air missile... Iran earlier said it would test-fire two long-range missiles - Qader and another system called Nour (light) - to display its resolve to counter any attack by Israel or the US." http://t.uani.com/rRRdm2
Nuclear Program & Sanctions AP: "Iran's currency hit a new record low to the U.S. dollar on Monday, two days after President Barack Obama signed into law a bill targeting Iran's central bank as part of the West's efforts to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. State radio said the Iranian currency's exchange rate hovered around 16,800 riyals to the dollar, marking a roughly 10 percent slide compared to Thursday's rate of 15,200 riyals to the dollar. The riyal was trading at around 10,500 riyals to the U.S. dollar in late December 2010." http://t.uani.com/vK6aY2
AP: "Iran has proposed a new round of talks about its nuclear program with the United States and five other world powers, the country's top nuclear negotiator said Saturday. The negotiator, Saeed Jalili, said he had formally notified the United States and its negotiating partners: Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. The announcement came a month after the West imposed new sanctions over Tehran's uranium enrichment program, which is a potential pathway to the development of nuclear arms. The last round of negotiations between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany ended in failure last January in Istanbul." http://t.uani.com/vLWJQU
AFP: "Iran is refusing to refuel some European and Arab airlines at its main international airport in a tit-for-tat move over major oil companies denying fuel to Iranian planes abroad, the airport's chief said on Saturday. 'Government directives' ordered the ban, Morteza Dehqan, head of Tehran's Imam Khomeini international airport, told the ISNA news agency. 'In a reciprocal move, we are not giving fuel to the airlines of countries which do not give fuel to our airlines,' he said. He did not say when the decision was adopted." http://t.uani.com/uOLwPE
Reuters: "The European Union expects to reach a decision by the end of January on expanding sanctions against Iran, an EU spokesman said on Sunday... 'We expect a decision (on EU sanctions) to be ready at the latest by the next foreign affairs council on 30 January,' EU foreign policy spokesman Michael Mann said in an email to Reuters." http://t.uani.com/uyt9Oj
Foreign Affairs
WashPost: "Iran is quietly seeking to expand its ties with Latin America in what U.S. officials and regional experts say is an effort to circumvent economic sanctions and gain access to much-needed markets and raw materials. The new diplomatic offensive, which comes amid rising tensions with Washington and European powers, includes a four-nation swing through South and Central America this month by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His government has vowed to increase its economic, political and military influence in the United States' back yard. The visit reinforces recent commitments by Iran to invest millions of dollars in economic development projects for the region, from a mining joint venture in Ecuador to factories for petrochemicals and small-arms ammunition in Venezuela." http://t.uani.com/ufv95v
Reuters: "The United States has signed a $3.5 billion sale of an advanced antimissile interception system to the United Arab Emirates, part of an accelerating military buildup of its friends and allies near Iran... UAE lies across the Gulf from Iran. The announcement of its purchase underlined rising tensions since a November 8 report from the U.N. nuclear watchdog that Iran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end." http://t.uani.com/tld5IP
Reuters: "Iran said on Sunday that it would launch full-scale unilateral development of the disputed offshore Arash gas field in the Gulf if Kuwait does not respond to its offer of joint development, according to the official IRNA news agency." http://t.uani.com/u0l5dC
Opinion & Analysis
Nima Khorrami Assl in The Guardian: "Over the past two decades, imposition of sanctions on Iran has evolved into a dynamic game between Tehran and the international community, with every new round provoking a series of Iranian counter-measures. One of Tehran's weapons in this tussle has been to use its trade policy as a way of discouraging some countries from co-operating with sanctions or aligning themselves too closely with the anti-Iran camp. A highly visible example has been Iran's trade relations with the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. Iran has deliberately expanded its trade and investment ties so as to increase the economic costs for them of joining western-sponsored sanctions initiatives. Since 2000, for instance, GCC exports to Iran have increased dramatically, reaching $13.4bn in 2008-09, and thus the GCC states, particularly the UAE, have enjoyed a sizeable trade surplus with respect to Iran. Simultaneously, Tehran has used trade to discourage the GCC states from forming a united anti-Iranian front headed by Saudi Arabia. This is why it has called for the joint development of its shared gas fields with Kuwait and Qatar but not the Saudis, preferred to trade in UAE dirhams but not other GCC currencies, insisted on regional security arrangements, championed the cause of Shia Muslims in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, maintained friendly relations with Oman where the vast majority of the population resent the Wahhabi/Saudi version of Islam, and given the Qatar Airways the right to operate its domestic flights. Yet recent reports that Iran has blocked imports from the UAE 'as a punitive measure' in response to its support for the US sanctions indicate that Iran's economic co-option strategy has failed. They also point to the catastrophic failure of Tehran's efforts to keep GCC states divided since the UAE is now fully aligned with Saudi policy towards Iran." http://t.uani.com/thkH56
Ilan Berman in IHT: "The past two weeks have seen a dramatic escalation in Iran's war of words with the West. Last Wednesday, Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told Iran's official news agency, IRNA, that new economic pressure currently being contemplated by the West would come at a steep cost. According to Rahimi, 'not a drop of oil' will pass through the Strait of Hormuz - a key strategic waterway that serves as a conduit for as much as a third of the world's oil - if additional sanctions are levied against the Islamic Republic for its nuclear program. Iran's top naval commander, Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, has been even more explicit, warning publicly that his country stands ready to block the strait if necessary... Iran certainly has the ability to do so. As long ago as 2004, the U.S. intelligence community was estimating publicly that the Iranian regime could shut down the strait for brief periods of time, even with a Western military presence in the region. Additional investments in naval capabilities in the years since have only expanded Iran's ability to choke off the flow of Mideast oil. Doing so would have disastrous consequences, not least for Iran itself. The Islamic Republic currently ranks as the second largest producer in OPEC, exporting an estimated 2.4 million barrels of crude daily (mostly through the strait). In turn, oil and natural gas sales account for some 80 percent of the country's hard-currency export earnings. A closure of the strait would be both self-defeating and ruinous for Iran's energy economy. But even as a bluff, Iran's threats have a real impact. They have spooked jittery global markets and created a powerful disincentive for European nations to apply and enforce further economic pressure against Tehran. And while other Middle Eastern energy suppliers (most prominently Saudi Arabia) have pledged to offset any shortages that might result from Iran's actions, those countries are also highly reliant on the strait to bring their crude to market - and would be neutered by its closure. The West, in other words, needs to craft a strategic response to Iran's brinksmanship. To do so, the United States and its coalition partners must convey two distinct messages to Tehran." http://t.uani.com/rqvEth
Yasmin Alem in The National: "The Iranian regime is at a crossroads. The parliamentary elections on March 2, 2012 are arguably one of the most consequential electoral events in the 32-year history of the Iranian theocracy. The legislative poll could serve as a barometer measuring the regime's legitimacy, assessing the state of its internal conflicts and projecting its political future. But what distinguishes this election from previous ones? Part of the significance is timing. The upcoming poll will mark the first election since the uprising that followed the 2009 disputed presidential election. What Iranian leaders often referred to as the 'pillar of the Islamic Republic', the electoral mandate, nearly became the cause of its undoing two years ago. City council elections, slated for the winter of 2011, were postponed as the regime paved the ground to repress dissent, marginalise opponents and ponder the future. It is precisely for this reason that from a security point of view, the 2012 vote is peculiar. Alarmist rhetoric of the ruling elite reveals the stress levels in Tehran. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has openly called the March vote a potential 'security challenge'. His protégé, the minister of intelligence Heydar Moslehi, has described it as the 'most sensitive elections in the history of the Islamic Republic'. The regime is now in a quandary. While it has traditionally boasted about high-voter participation as the symbol of its legitimacy, Tehran is increasingly concerned that an election boycott or turmoil could adversely affect its standing. In the wake of the Arab uprisings, the clerical regime is seeking to project an image of its power and popularity. If the election becomes a dismal affair, however, it will have the reverse effect." http://t.uani.com/srNao4 |
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