| For continuing coverage follow us on Twitter and join our Facebook group.
Top Stories
NYT: "The Obama administration is relying on a secret channel of communication to warn Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that closing the Strait of Hormuz is a 'red line' that would provoke an American response, according to United States government officials. The officials declined to describe the unusual contact between the two governments, and whether there had been an Iranian reply. Senior Obama administration officials have said publicly that Iran would cross a 'red line' if it made good on recent threats to close the strait, a strategically crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, where 16 million barrels of oil - about a fifth of the world's daily oil trade - flow through every day. Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this past weekend that the United States would 'take action and reopen the strait,' which could be accomplished only by military means, including minesweepers, warship escorts and potentially airstrikes. Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta told troops in Texas on Thursday that the United States would not tolerate Iran's closing of the strait." http://t.uani.com/wHeuBe
Radio Farda: "Is Jennifer Lopez the long-sought solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis? And can she improve the deteriorating human rights situation in the Islamic Republic? We shouldn't discount the power of music and some Latin hip shaking, but one U.S.-based advocacy group has something else in mind. United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a group that says it is working to prevent Iran from 'fulfilling its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons' -- a charge Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected. It has now called on Jennifer Lopez to end her partnership with the car manufacturer Fiat, if the company refuses to terminate its business with Iran. UANI claims a Fiat subsidiary, Iveco, sells and distributes trucks in Iran, which the group says have been used by the regime to transport ballistic missiles and stage public executions. UANI also says Fiat is reportedly planning to expand its presence in Iran by opening a luxury Maserati dealership in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/wHV8Yk
Reuters: "Having switched production of higher-grade enriched uranium to a new, underground site, Iran is now just a year or so away from having enough such material for a nuclear bomb, a former head of U.N. nuclear inspections said. However, Olli Heinonen wrote in an article published on Thursday that building a stock of some 250 kg of 20-percent enriched uranium - a form that could within weeks be further purified to the 90-percent weapons grade - did not automatically mean Iran could deploy a bomb without further engineering work. Heinonen, a Finn, was deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency until 2010 and is now at Harvard University. He made the prediction days after Iran confirmed the start of 20-percent enrichment inside the Fordow mountain, fuelling Western fears Tehran is seeking atomic arms." http://t.uani.com/wOydpa
Nuclear Program & Sanctions HuffPo: "Jennifer Lopez probably wishes she'd never accepted that ride from Fiat. First, the singer came under fire for filming a New York-centric ad for the automaker on the other side of the country. And now, two months later, a non-profit advocacy group is urging her to end her endorsement of the Italian car company -- or stand accused of supporting Iran's illegal nuclear missile program. In an open letter released Thursday, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) group told Lopez, 'By endorsing Fiat, you are serving as a spokesperson for a company that freely does business with a regime that is developing an illegal nuclear weapons program, financing and sponsoring terrorist groups including al-Qaeda, has killed American and NATO soliders and is recognized as one of the world's leading human rights violators.' A Fiat subsidiary called Iveco sells and distributes trucks in Iran, a portion of which have reportedly been used as a means to relocate missiles and to 'stage gruesome public executions.'" http://t.uani.com/waLjzn
FT: "The US has slapped sanctions on three companies including a large Chinese oil trader for selling refined oil products to Iran, just days after US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner travelled to Beijing to press for Chinese support on Iran sanctions. The measures send a strong warning to energy companies working in Iran. But they also mark a more confrontational approach to China, Iran's biggest trading partner, after the US has spent years lobbying Beijing for closer co-operation on its attempts to isolate Tehran over its expanding nuclear programme... The US state department announced late on Thursday that penalties would be imposed on China's Zhuhai Zhenrong, the Singapore-based oil trader Kuo Oil, and the United Arab Emirates-based independent oil trader FAL. The US state department called the sanctions against the three an 'important' step in convincing Iran to change its behaviour, and highlighted the 'potential connection between Iran's revenues derived from its energy sector and the funding of its proliferation [of] sensitive nuclear activities.'" http://t.uani.com/wADmrD
AFP: "The latest round of American sanctions are aimed at shutting down Iran's central bank, a senior US official said Thursday, spelling out that intention directly for the first time. 'We do mean to close down the Central Bank of Iran (CBI),' the official told reporters on condition of anonymity, while adding that the United States is moving quickly to implement the sanctions, signed into law last month... Foreign central banks that deal with the Iranian central bank on oil transactions could also face similar restrictions under the new law, which has sparked fears of damage to US ties with nations like Russia and China. 'If a correspondent bank of a US bank wants to do business with us and they're doing business with CBI or other designated Iranian banks... then they're going to get in trouble with us,' the US official said." http://t.uani.com/Al1RyI
Reuters: "EU states drawing up details of an oil embargo on Iran have given wide backing to a proposal to allow European entities to continue to receive repayments in oil for debts they are currently owed by Iranian firms, EU diplomats said. The 27 states are also working towards a phased implementation of a ban on imports of oil and petrochemical products from Iran. One diplomat said a consensus was emerging that the oil import ban should come into force after six months and the petrochemical product ban after three -- similar to provisions in U.S. legislation -- but other another stressed more discussion was needed before this issue was finalised." http://t.uani.com/zlo6Xy
NYT: "Pressure on Iran mounted on Thursday, with the United States saying it was determined to isolate the country's central bank, and three of Iran's largest oil customers - Japan, South Korea and China - getting assurances that Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers would help make up any gap in supplies if they curtailed oil purchases from Iran... Delegations from the State, Energy and Treasury Departments are fanning out to Iran's major customers, as well as to rival oil producers, to enlist them in an ambitious project: to effectively cut off one of the world's largest oil producers without driving up oil prices. In the early days of that effort, the administration is getting crucial help from Persian Gulf nations. They have offered assurances to China, Japan and South Korea - which together buy about half of Iran's oil - after each expressed concern that a loss of energy resources could undermine their own economies." http://t.uani.com/zQghPi
AP: "Iran's parliamentary speaker on Thursday said he believed that the standoff over his country's nuclear program can be solved through serious talks. Ali Larijani told a news conference after meeting Turkish leaders in Ankara that Tehran supports the idea of holding further talks in Turkey. Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, recently said he had called on six powers -- the U.S, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- to resume talks. 'I believe all issues can be easily solved through negotiations,' Larijani told a news conference. 'But this time, we want the talks to be serious, it should not be fake.'" http://t.uani.com/zHo4yn
WSJ: "Iran agreed to host a high-level team of United Nation's nuclear inspectors later this month, Western diplomats said, a surprise development that could help to curb building tensions with the West. The diplomats on Thursday said Iran had tentatively agreed to receive a delegation from the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency headed by the agency's chief weapons inspector, Herman Nackaerts. The diplomats, who are based in Vienna, said the visit was tentatively set for Jan. 28. Unclear, said the diplomats, was whether Tehran would let the inspectors visit key nuclear sites and interview the Iranian official the U.S. and the U.N. agency believe may head a nuclear-weapons program." http://t.uani.com/zHo4yn
Foreign Affairs
Reuters: "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Friday wraps up a four-nation tour of Latin America that yielded kind words from ideological allies but no clear offers to help ease Western sanctions against its nuclear program. The limited results from his tour of Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador reinforce the view that Iran will need to rely on diplomatic heavyweights like China or Russia to help stave off sanctions that for the first time threaten its oil income. Latin America's most prominent left-wing presidents, led by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, have defended Iran's right to develop nuclear energy and slammed tightened measures by Washington. But while burnishing their 'anti-imperialist' credentials and showering Ahmadinejad with praise, the bloc of socialist allies offered few signs they can help Iran undercut sanctions with cash or fuel." http://t.uani.com/wpwFyC
WSJ: "Former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, caught up in the conflict between Washington and Tehran, has been portrayed by Iran as a spy, a suspicion fueled by his prior military service and past employment with defense contractors. But Mr. Hekmati's résumé reads like that of many other former service members making a living at the intersection of the defense and industrial establishment through a string of contracting and consulting jobs. Iran announced Monday its Revolutionary Court had sentenced Mr. Hekmati to death on charges including spying for the Central Intelligence Agency. U.S. officials said he didn't work for the CIA and is being used by Tehran as a political pawn. Defense-industry and intelligence experts said Mr. Hekmati's employment history-and his linguistic and cultural skills-would have made him an attractive candidate for government work, but an unlikely intelligence operative." http://t.uani.com/yNh500
Opinion & Analysis
NYT Editorial Board: "With tensions rising over Iran's nuclear program, the Obama administration has now warned the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz would provoke an American response. Earlier this week, international monitors confirmed that Iran has begun enriching uranium at a new underground plant. The United States and Europe are tightening sanctions to choke off Iranian oil revenues. On Wednesday, an Iranian nuclear scientist died in a bomb attack en route to work, and a government newspaper signaled that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps might retaliate. Many officials, experts and commentators increasingly expect some kind of military confrontation. No one should want to see Iran, with its contempt for international law, acquire a nuclear weapon. But a military strike on the nuclear facilities would be a disaster. We don't know whether any mix of sanctions and inducements could persuade Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. There is another option besides force: negotiations with the United States and other major powers over curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for ending sanctions and diplomatic isolation. Iran's fractured leadership so far has not committed to serious talks, but President Obama and his allies have not paid enough attention to that alternative... Economic pressure could be more effective if the United Nations Security Council ratcheted up its existing sanctions. A new round has been delayed by opposition from Russia and China. The United States and Europe have been imposing their own penalties, and Tehran's recent threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, gateway to one-fifth of the world's oil trade, is an obvious sign of its growing economic desperation. A new United States law that would penalize foreign companies that do business with Iran's central bank - which they must do to buy Iranian oil - and an oil embargo that European Union foreign ministers plan to approve on Jan. 23 could have an even bigger impact. The Obama administration and European officials seem likely to phase in these sanctions in a way that limits the damage to the world economy. On Thursday, Japan pledged to buy less Iranian oil, China and South Korea were looking for alternative suppliers, and India's intent was unclear. Tehran is more likely to respond if all the major importers apply pressure together. The Americans and Europeans are working with Turkey to set up a new round of negotiations with Iran in Istanbul. The Iranians need to know that the economic pressure will not let up until they stop the nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/x25QFD
WSJ Editorial Board: "As a supervisor at the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was engaged in building a nuclear bomb in violation of four binding U.N. Security Council resolutions. On Wednesday he was assassinated after a bomb was attached to his car, making him the fifth senior Iranian nuclear scientist known to have been killed in recent years. His death will serve a useful purpose if it convinces a critical mass of his colleagues to cease pursuing an atomic critical mass. That wouldn't be a bad way to bring the confrontation over Iran's nuclear program to a peaceful conclusion. But don't count on it.Opponents of Tehran's nuclear ambitions have been attempting for years to use a combination of diplomacy, sanctions and covert action to persuade the mullahs that they have more to lose than gain from building a bomb. So far, none of it has worked: Diplomacy has mostly allowed the Iranians to play for time. Sanctions so far have been too narrowly targeted to have much effect, though that may change now that the U.S. and Europe are finally targeting Iran's oil trade. As for covert activity, we may someday learn the full story of who did what, how they did it, and what effect it all had. But to judge by last November's report on Iran's nuclear programs by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran is closer than ever to a bomb. That's despite the Stuxnet computer worm, the assassinations, and last year's mysterious explosion at a missile factory. What goes in the cloak-and-dagger world also goes for public diplomacy. Americans can take pride in last week's dramatic rescue by the destroyer USS Kidd of 13 Iranian sailors who had spent 40 days as hostages of Somali pirates. But if the Administration thought that would break the tension following Iran's threats over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran had other ideas. Days after the Kidd rescue, Iran imposed a death sentence on 28-year-old Amir Hekmati, an Arizona-born Iranian-American and former U.S. Marine... Much of the world wants to believe that force won't be necessary to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, but the explosions and killings show that a covert war involving deadly force is already underway. The Obama Administration says Iran plotted to kill a Saudi ambassador in a Washington, D.C. restaurant, and Iran is trying to kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan as it previously did in Iraq. Many more people will die if the world doesn't get serious about stopping this rogue regime." http://t.uani.com/A64zjJ
Michael Burleigh in The Daily Telegraph: "Physics is an unhealthy line of work in today's Iran. A few days ago, 32-year-old Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan died in his car, after two motorcyclists attached a magnetic shaped charge to the door. You can see Roshan among the men in white coats, beaming modestly behind President Ahmadinejad, in a photo taken a few months ago. Roshan was not the first and nor will he be the last casualty of a covert war designed either to dissuade Iran from acquiring a bomb, or to prompt retaliatory mis-steps that will trigger an all-out onslaught by Israel or the US against multiple Iranian nuclear facilities. The identity of the assassins is inherently unknowable - though a good guess would be the dissident Mujahedin-e-Khalq group on behalf of Mossad. The CIA's weak human intelligence presence inside Iran makes Secretary Clinton's categorical denial of American involvement plausible. Why it is happening is far easier to fathom. Israel, although not the world's sole assassin, has historical form in this area. In 1963, Mossad embarked on Operation Damocles to menace and murder former Nazi rocket scientists, who, according to a defecting Austrian, were helping Nasser develop rockets that could be equipped with radiological warheads. They received parcel bombs through the post, while their families back in Germany and Austria were threatened with violence. More recently, in 1990, Mossad shot dead the Canadian Gerald Bull outside his Brussels apartment. Bull was helping Saddam Hussein improve Scud missiles while developing a long-range 'supergun' as a sideline. A similar logic, of degrading one's enemy's scientific and technical human capacity, was evident from the targeted assassination campaign which Israel waged against key Hamas and Hizbollah figures. The victims included Hamas's Yehiya 'The Engineer' Ayyash, whose head was blown off in 1996 by what he thought was his mobile phone, and Imad Mugniyah of Hizbollah, pieces of whom were scraped up from the street in 2008 after he was killed leaving a party at the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Both of these men had a lethal expertise which would be difficult to replace... Today's Iranian physicists can view a nuclear bomb detonating on the internet, and can read about Hiroshima in any number of books, starting with John Hersey's shocking 1945 account. They work for a regime that has explicitly threatened Israel (and by implication many ambient Palestinians) with such a weapon. I shall not shed any tears whenever one of these scientists encounters the unforgiving men on motorbikes, men who live in the real world rather than a laboratory or philosophy seminar. Except that if Israel ventures down this road, I cannot think of much of an argument to prevent Iran following them, and then anyone else who decides to follow." http://t.uani.com/x9JmEA
Olli Heinonen in FP: "On Monday, Jan. 9, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun producing 20 percent enriched uranium at Fordow, a fuel enrichment plant buried deep underground near the holy city of Qom. On the surface, there is little new here: Since February 2010, Iran has been producing 20 percent enriched uranium at Natanz, another once-secret site located about 3 ½ hours from Tehran. Iran disclosed neither the Natanz nor the Fordow site to the IAEA until forced to do so, in 2002 and 2009, respectively, when outside observers discovered and publicized them. Fordow is smaller than Natanz in scale, but better protected from prying satellites and, potentially, a bombing campaign. Worryingly, the plant appears designed to focus on producing higher enrichments. What has raised the world's suspicions is that Iran continues to produce 20 percent enriched uranium despite the fact that this exceeds its civilian needs and, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad acknowledged in September, does not make economic sense. There are serious concerns over the proliferation aspects of Iran's enrichment activities. Increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium, together with studies related to an advanced nuclear weapon design, are building blocks for attaining a virtual nuclear weapon capability. (A state has a virtual nuclear arsenal if it possesses weapons-usable nuclear material and the knowledge and experience needed to design, manufacture, assemble, and deploy nuclear weapons.) So Iran's recent announcement that it plans to increase production of 20 percent enriched uranium is alarming. Over the last few days, Iran has begun operating two enrichment cascades at Fordow. Furthermore, Iran is completing installation of two additional cascades, with their planned operation already announced. Once the four cascades at Fordow, in addition to the two Natanz ones, are operating, Iran will be able to produce 15 kg of 20 percent enriched UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) per month. This process uses as feed 3.5 percent enriched uranium, which is produced currently at a rate of 140 to 150 kg UF6 per month at Natanz. This means that Iran's entire uranium-enrichment program is now being devoted to producing 20 percent enriched uranium... If Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium from 20 percent enriched uranium, it has already technically undertaken 90 percent of the enrichment effort required. What remains to be done is the feeding of 20 percent uranium through existing additional cascades to achieve weapons-grade enrichment (more than 90 percent uranium). This step is much faster than the earlier ones... How can Iran convince the international community that its nuclear program will follow a peaceful track? There are a few ways to go about it. One way would be to suspend the production of enriched uranium and convert the existing 3.5 percent and 20 percent enriched uranium stocks, with the assistance of the international community, to fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, as well as for another modern research reactor that could be provided to Iran. This approach would be good for Iran, as it would give the country a sustainable production of radioisotopes for industrial and medical uses in the shortest time." http://t.uani.com/xCVZim |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment