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WashPost: "Iran dramatically boosted its production of a purer form of nuclear fuel in recent months, with much of the increased output coming from a newly opened plant built inside a mountain bunker, U.N. officials said Friday, further exacerbating worries about Iran's march toward nuclear-weapons capability. The finding, in a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, showed a nearly 50 percent jump since the fall in Iran's stockpile of a kind of highly enriched uranium that is closer to weapons-grade than the type normally used in nuclear power plants. More than a third of the increased output came from a formerly secret installation called Fordow, which began enriching uranium last month from inside a heavily fortified bunker carved into a mountain in northwestern Iran, the IAEA inspectors found. Iran already has enough enriched uranium to build four nuclear weapons, if it decides in the future to do so. The shift to underground bunkers and a larger stockpile of the highly enriched uranium, however, could shorten the amount of time needed for Iran to develop a weapon, U.S. officials and nuclear experts say." http://t.uani.com/w0JaNO
Reuters: "Iran has yet to give an explanation over a small quantity of uranium metal missing from a research site, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said in a report that voiced concern over possible military links to Tehran's nuclear program. The discrepancy found at the research site in the Iranian capital came to light after measurements by international inspectors last year failed to match the amount declared by the laboratory. Experts say the quantity of natural uranium not accounted for is too small to be used for a bomb, but that it could be relevant to weapons-linked tests. The United States has expressed concern the material may have been diverted to suspected weapons-related research." http://t.uani.com/wASUKv
Reuters: "The world's biggest electronic banking system is ready to block Iran's central bank from using its network to transfer funds, a U.S. congressional aide said on Friday after a briefing from the Belgium-based group earlier this week. Such a move by SWIFT, or Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, would prevent Tehran from sending payment orders electronically around the world and give the West another tool in its effort to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Tehran maintains its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes. Under pressure from the United States to stop Iran's banks from using its global network, SWIFT has said it was prepared to block Iranian transactions." http://t.uani.com/z913K5
Nuclear Program
NYT: "Even as the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said in a new report Friday that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment program, American intelligence analysts continue to believe that there is no hard evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb. Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America's 16 intelligence agencies. At the center of the debate is the murky question of the ultimate ambitions of the leaders in Tehran. There is no dispute among American, Israeli and European intelligence officials that Iran has been enriching nuclear fuel and developing some necessary infrastructure to become a nuclear power. But the Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence agencies believe that Iran has yet to decide whether to resume a parallel program to design a nuclear warhead - a program they believe was essentially halted in 2003 and which would be necessary for Iran to build a nuclear bomb." http://t.uani.com/ydWnZx
AP: "Iran's defense minister warned that an Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic will lead to the collapse of the Jewish state, state television reported Saturday, in one of the strongest statements from Iran indicating it would retaliate should Israel attack its nuclear facilities... 'A military attack by the Zionist regime will undoubtedly lead to the collapse of this regime,' Vahidi was quoted as saying by Iran's state-run Press TV. He did not say what type of action Iran would take in such a scenario." http://t.uani.com/A5Z01r
WSJ: "The Pentagon is beefing up U.S. sea- and land-based defenses in the Persian Gulf to counter any attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military has notified Congress of plans to preposition new mine-detection and clearing equipment and expand surveillance capabilities in and around the strait, according to defense officials briefed on the requests, including one submitted earlier this month. The military also wants to quickly modify weapons systems on ships so they could be used against Iranian fast-attack boats, as well as shore-launched cruise missiles, the defense officials said." http://t.uani.com/yO86d5
Reuters: "Iran is still relying on old technology to expand its nuclear programme, in what may be a sign it is having difficulties developing modern machines that could speed up production of potential bomb material. A report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog last week said Iran was significantly stepping up its uranium enrichment, a finding that sent oil prices higher on fears tensions between with the West could escalate into military conflict... But, contrary to some Western media reports in the run-up to Friday's International Atomic Energy Agency report, Iran does not yet seem ready to deploy advanced enrichment equipment for large-scale production, despite years of testing. Instead, the IAEA document showed Iran was preparing to install thousands more centrifuges based on an erratic and outdated design, both in its main enrichment plant at Natanz and in a smaller facility at Fordow buried deep underground." http://t.uani.com/yDria4
AFP: "The UN atomic agency bemoaned on Friday 'major differences' with Iran after two fruitless visits probing suspected nuclear weapons work, adding that Tehran had substantially boosted uranium enrichment. 'An intensive discussion was held on the structured approach to the clarification of all outstanding issues related to Iran's nuclear programme' during two recent visits, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. 'No agreement was reached between Iran and the Agency, as major differences existed,' it said in a new report circulated to member states late Friday and seen by AFP. 'The agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme,' it said, two days after a team led by Herman Nackaerts returned from a visit dubbed a 'failure' by Washington." http://t.uani.com/znB0uM
Sanctions
Sanctions
JTA: "Lawmakers in Indiana passed legislation that would bar companies doing business in Iran from receiving state contracts. The Indiana House of Representatives unanimously passed the legislation on Feb. 21 by a vote of 95-0 after the Senate previously approved the measure by a vote of 49-1. The measure now goes to Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-Ind.) for his signature. Indiana becomes the fourth state in the country to pass legislation barring companies doing business with Iran from receiving state contracts. New York, Florida and California have passed similar legislation. Mark Wallace, the president of United Against Nuclear Iran, called the passage a 'powerful message to companies that continue to irresponsibly do business in Iran. Once Governor Daniels signs this bill into law, these companies will have to make a choice: pull out of Iran, or lose their contracts with the State of Indiana.'" http://t.uani.com/A4OKzI
WSJ: "Angola's Sonangol is pulling out of a $7.5 billion natural-gas project in Iran due to sanctions, a top executive with the African state-oil giant said Friday, as Western pressure on African ties with Tehran scored its most notable success so far. The Angolan disclosure comes as the U.S. and European Union continue to expand sanctions and try to persuade consumers of Iranian oil to find alternative supplies, in order to choke off Tehran's revenue and force it to abandon what the West says is a program to develop nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies." http://t.uani.com/yF9GXs
Reuters: "Japan's customs-cleared crude imports from Iran fell 12.2 percent in January from the same month a year ago, a much sharper decline than for overall imports, as Japan strives to avoid U.S. sanctions, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday. The cuts were much sharper than the fall of 2.1 percent in the nation's total crude imports last month. But crude imports from Iran were higher in January than December, as January and February tend to be the two peak months of imports in the winter season." http://t.uani.com/yuQQ6s
Reuters: "Iran said on Sunday it had not blocked an oil shipment to Greece, denying earlier reports it had done so in retaliation to the EU phasing in a ban on its key export, the Iranian Student's News Agency (ISNA) reported. 'There has been no change in Iran's oil shipment to Greece or any other country. No changes in our shipment schedule,' said Pirouz Mousavi, managing director of the Iranian Oil Terminals Co. Earlier, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said Tehran had refused shipment of 500,000 destined for Greek refiner Hellenic Petroleum, but a Hellenic official denied it." http://t.uani.com/zRxUaa
Domestic Politics
WashPost: "More than two years after massive anti-government demonstrations over a disputed election exposed a rift between Iran's leaders and its urban middle class, their diverging worlds are again set to collide in an upcoming vote for a new parliament. This time, disgruntled opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are unlikely to hold protests, political analysts said, but they may not vote either, denying Iranian leaders the large turnout they seek to reaffirm the legitimacy of their 33-year-old rule. Since crushing the 2009 demonstrations, which erupted when Ahmadinejad claimed a landslide reelection victory, the government has disregarded demands for greater freedom and portrayed the grass-roots opposition as a small band of misguided troublemakers. As a result, the parliamentary elections scheduled for Friday highlight a disconnect between the nation's leadership and the hard-working urbanites - who include bus drivers, business lawyers and university-educated nurses, and who make up the Islamic republic's increasingly self-aware and modern middle class." http://t.uani.com/zORLPG
Opinion & Analysis
WSJ Editorial Board: "What will it take to persuade the U.S. intelligence community that Tehran's nuclear intentions aren't exactly peaceful? Perhaps nothing short of an explosion. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its latest report on Iran on Friday, this time with the cheerful news that the regime has sharply increased its production of 20%-enriched uranium and in much greater quantities than it can possibly need for civilian use. More than a third of the new enrichment is taking place at its Fordow installation, which is inside a heavily fortified bunker carved into a mountain. Stockpiling 20% uranium (reactor-grade is 5%) gives Iran the option to further enrich the fuel to bomb-grade level quickly and with relative ease. And speaking of a bomb, the regime last week forbade IAEA inspectors from visiting a weapons-facility at Parchin, which the Agency suspects has conducted nuclear-weapons design work. If that sounds grim, America's spooks see a silver lining: Tehran may be doing what it can to manufacture the various components of a nuclear weapon, but it has yet to decide to assemble them into an explosive device. That's the public assessment of James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, seconded by CIA Director David Petraeus and Joint Chiefs Chairman Martin Dempsey. Some anonymous intelligence sources go even further: According to a weekend story in the New York Times, they still believe the conclusions of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which argued that Iran put its nuclear weapons-work on the shelf in 2003. Mr. Clapper and friends are drawing a narrow distinction between having the ability to build a nuke and actually building one. In this ever-hopeful analysis, Iran might decide that it is better served possessing enough nuclear capability to keep its options open and its enemies on guard, without having to incur the risks of building and maintaining an actual arsenal. The model here is Japan, another country that could easily build nuclear weapons but chooses not to out of strategic, moral and political considerations. There's a problem with this logic: Japan is not Iran. Democratic Tokyo threatens nobody. Theocratic Tehran never ceases making threats. The idea that Japan could, in theory, field a nuclear arsenal might serve as a deterrent against Chinese military planners, but it doesn't keep ordinary people in Seoul, Taipei or Manila awake at night." http://t.uani.com/AbrB0f
Frederick Kagan & Maseh Zarif in WSJ: "Americans are being played for fools by Iran-and fooling themselves. There is no case to be made that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons capability. There is no evidence that Iran's decision-makers are willing to stop the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions or anything else. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on Friday that it has made no progress in its negotiations with Iran and that Iran continues to accelerate its enrichment operations, which are in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and agreements with the IAEA. Yet the policy discussion in the U.S. is confused. Former Ambassador Dennis Ross writes that the Iranians are ready for talks. Anonymous administration officials refer to one of the most dangerous Iranian nuclear installations, Fordow, outside the city of Qom, as 'a Potemkin facility.' The media are full of comparisons to Iraq in 2003, when suspicions that Iraq was pursuing a covert nuclear program led to war. People are conflating intelligence assessment with policy recommendation. The prospect of war with Iran is so distasteful that people are desperate to persuade themselves that the problem is not serious. IAEA inspectors on the ground at Iran's nuclear facilities reported the following facts on Friday: Iran's inventory of centrifuges enriching uranium isotopes has been steadily expanding, along with the stockpiles of uranium enriched to 3.5% and 20%-important stages on the road to weapons-grade uranium. Iran has installed and run advanced centrifuges in the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. Iran has buried an enrichment facility under a small mountain at Fordow, installed air-defense systems around it, and brought new centrifuges online there. Iran is developing techniques and technologies needed to turn weapons-grade uranium (which it is not yet producing) into an atomic bomb. The IAEA reported that the Iranians 'dismissed the Agency's concerns [about weaponization] . . . largely on the grounds that Iran considered them to be based on unfounded allegations.' The Iranians have denied inspectors access to the facilities that inspectors suspect are being used to work on weaponization. The price of this refusal, including U.N. and international sanctions, has devastated the Iranian economy. Unemployment and popular dissatisfaction with the regime are high. Unprecedentedly harsh sanctions imposed by the Obama administration are driving off customers for Iran's oil... Add it up any way you like: Iran is starting to race to reach a breakout point at which the international community will be unable to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, short of a massive American military strike. The evidence available supports no other conclusion." http://t.uani.com/yUZbWG
Avi Jorisch in CNN: "Last week, one of the most important international banking organizations said it was preparing to ban blacklisted Iranian banks for their role in facilitating illicit financial transactions. Although existing international sanctions have placed significant pressure on Tehran, the United States and the European Union have the ability to render a knockout blow that would significantly curtail Iran's access to the international financial sector. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, also known as SWIFT, is a banking cooperative owned by its member financial institutions. It is used by banks around the world to debit and credit money. The vast majority of global interbank transfers are routed through the SWIFT network, and nearly every bank in the world uses SWIFT to move funds globally. As of January 2011, SWIFT linked more than 9,500 financial institutions, in 210 countries and territories, and facilitated over 17 million transfers daily. SWIFT is headquartered in Belgium and has offices in the world's major financial centers, including a very large presence in New York. Iran relies heavily on SWIFT to move its funds and to finance its nuclear program, proliferate terrorism, and repress its own people. According to the organization's own documentation, all of Iran's domestic banks are connected to SWIFT, and in 2010, they sent 1.16 million messages and received 1.1 million, each of which represents movement of money. As of February 2010, Iranian financial institutions, including branches, departments, and head offices, possessed 675 SWIFT codes, which act as unique identifiers and allows Iran to manipulate the global financial market. As the international community implements robust sanctions against Iran, SWIFT has been in breach of the sanctions regime, along with U.S. and European laws. Beginning in 2007, the UN ordered member states to cease doing business under any circumstances with Iran's Bank Sepah and its affiliates and also placed restrictions on two other Iranian banks, Melli and Saderat. Most recently, the UN designated the First East Export Bank, located in Malaysia, and Australia, Canada, and the EU have published a list of illicit Iranian banks. For its part, the United States has formally desig¬nated those named at the UN, as well as another sixteen Iranian banks for their role proliferating weapons of mass destruction and terrorism. The U.S. also blacklisted every Iranian bank specifically for engaging in money laundering. All of the Iranian banks designated by the U.S. and Europe have SWIFT Codes. SWIFT has even in violation of its own corporate rules, which clearly state that services 'should not be used to facilitate illegal activities.' Furthermore, both the United States and Europe, by blacklisting Iranian financial institutions for their role in terrorism finance and money laundering, have provided SWIFT with sufficient reasons to prevent sanctioned Iranian banks from having access to the international financial sector." http://t.uani.com/A15Z37
Claudia Rosett in Forbes: "As financial sanctions tighten on Iran, a shift has appeared in the shipping patterns of Iran's main cargo fleet, the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, or IRISL. Blacklisted by the U.S. since 2008, IRISL has made an art out of dodging sanctions to stay afloat and keep sailing the high seas. But today, an unusual number of IRISL-linked cargo ships are hugging Iranian ports. Many have been there for weeks. The likeliest explanation is that new sanctions, designed to cut off Iran from the global financial system and bedevil its oil exports, are doing significant damage to its shipping business. Another, more sinister possibility, is that Iran's government is battening down some of its shipping assets, as the showdown escalates over its nuclear program. Or both? Not so long ago, many of these same IRISL-linked ships were far more widely dispersed around the globe, sailing right through a net of sanctions cast by the U.S., European Union and United Nations. Since the U.S. blacklisted IRISL in 2008 for providing services to Iran's military and proliferation ventures, Iran's regime has adapted by camouflaging the bulk of its fleet, renaming and reflagging many of the ships and transferring ownership to front companies with blandly generic names such as Alpha Effort or Melodious Maritime. By last year, this had become a shell game in which the U.S. had blacklisted more than 155 IRISL-affiliated ships, as well as scores of ship-owning front companies, from Hong Kong to Panama. The European Union and sundry other countries were taking similar measures. But the ships themselves kept calling at ports around the globe, from Iran to the Far East, from Malta to Mexico. That's now changed, to judge by a survey this past week of 104 IRISL-linked major cargo ships, a sample that includes roughly two thirds of the total IRISL-linked fleet blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury. Regardless of current names, flags and shell companies, these vessels can be identified by their unique seven-digit hull numbers, known as IMO numbers, which are issued for the lifetime of a ship. Treasury on its web site provides the IMO numbers for blacklisted IRISL-linked ships. At a Washington-based think tank, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with which I am affiliated, there is a ship-tracking project which has compiled the following finding, using information from the ship-tracking database IHS Fairplay, and other shipping industry sources. Out of 104 IRISL-linked cargo ships surveyed, 62 ships, or 60%,of the total sample, are currently in or near Iranian ports. By contrast, in July, 2010, in a pattern that until a few months ago appeared roughly the norm, only 28 of these ships, or 27% of the total sample, were in or near Iranian ports. In other words, over the past 20 months, the number of these blacklisted ships sticking close to Iran has more than doubled." http://t.uani.com/ACljPW
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