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The Times of
London: "Iranian car
manufacturers have begun laying off thousands of workers as production
grinds to a halt, the latest setback to strike an economy nearing
collapse under pressure from international sanctions. The mass
redundancies in one of Iran's biggest industries has added to the sense
of crisis in the country. Inflation is soaring and the rial slumped to an
all-time low against the US dollar last month. Unemployment in some parts
of the country has reached 40 per cent. The Iranian car industry has a
turnover of about $38 billion a year and employs nearly a million people.
Car manufacturing contributes 10 per cent of the country's gross domestic
product and is Iran's most lucrative industrial sector after oil and
gas... Iran was the 13th biggest carmaker in the world last year,
producing 1.6 million vehicles. But as sanctions bite, production has
collapsed this year, down by 66 per cent in September. The country's
exclusion from international capital markets and payment systems has left
businesses unable to purchase raw materials. After months of falling
demand and production, carmakers have bowed to the inevitable and started
cutting jobs. Alongside redundancies, the manufacturers have also reduced
work times. At most plants, three daily shifts have been cut to one. At
some companies, where production lines once operated around the clock,
the remaining staff work a solitary six-hour shift." http://t.uani.com/SvwrUD
NYT:
"Israel's defense minister said Tuesday that the country had
interpreted Iran's conversion of some enriched uranium to fuel rods for
civilian use as evidence that Iran had delayed ambitions to build a
nuclear weapon. The assertion, by Defense Minister Ehud Barak in an
interview with The Daily Telegraph, a British newspaper, amounted to the
first explanation from him as to why he and Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu softened their position in September over the possibility of a
military strike to thwart what they called Iran's drive toward imminent
nuclear weapons capability... Mr. Barak, who was visiting London, was
quoted by the newspaper as saying an immediate crisis had been averted
this summer because Iran had chosen to use a third of its enriched
uranium for use as fuel rods in a medical research reactor. The
conversion of that uranium, which was reported by the International
Atomic Energy Agency in August, makes it much more difficult to use
militarily. The Iranian decision, Mr. Barak said, 'allows contemplating
delaying the moment of truth by 8 to 10 months.'" http://t.uani.com/TT8zGp
WSJ:
"Amid an economy in turmoil, the Tehran Stock Exchange index has
provided Iranians with a rare dose of relief. On Saturday, the stock
market's All-Share-Price Index, or TEPIX, surpassed the 31,000-point
threshold for the first time in its 45-year history. It continued rising
on Tuesday, closing up 0.4% to 31,331.6 points. Conventional wisdom would
assume that a country's stock market mirrors broader macroeconomic
sentiment-even when magnified by speculation. Not in Iran, where the more
the economy worsens, the more the stock market improves. The mood could
hardly be gloomier outside the Iranian bourse. International Sanctions
against Iran's contested nuclear program, which it says is peaceful, have
more than halved oil exports, its largest source of revenue." http://t.uani.com/TtpSS6
Nuclear
Program
AP: "The
U.S. and the European Union said Tuesday they'll press on with sanctions
against Iran, even as they hope the promise of new negotiations could
lead to a diplomatic solution ending the nuclear standoff. Appearing
together at a news conference in the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo before
continuing a joint tour of the Balkans in Serbia and Kosovo, U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and EU foreign policy chief
Catherine Ashton said both diplomacy and pressure would continue until
Iran makes significant concessions over its disputed uranium enrichment
activity... Clinton said the U.S. message to Iran is clear. 'The window
remains open to resolve the international community's concerns about your
nuclear program diplomatically and to relieve your isolation, but that
window cannot remain open indefinitely. Therefore, we hope that there can
be serious good-faith negotiations commenced soon.'" http://t.uani.com/Tmd9wk
Sanctions
Reuters:
"Iranians can no longer export gold without approval by the central
bank, an official was quoted as saying on Wednesday, in a new effort by
the government to restrict outflows of wealth. The move follows media
reports on Tuesday that Iran had banned the export of some 50 basic
goods, as the country moves to secure supplies of essential items in the
face of tightening Western sanctions which have destabilised its rial
currency. 'The export of gold and coins without permission from the
central bank has been banned,' said customs official Mohammad Reza
Naderi, according to the Mehr news agency. 'According to law, (the export
of) coins made from precious metals has until now not needed a permit
from the central bank, but current economic conditions have resulted in a
decision to require a licence from the central bank for the export of
these goods.'" http://t.uani.com/Sk5MHu
Reuters:
"EU sanctions on Iran's natural gas have unintentionally also
brought its exports of liquefied petroleum gas to a near halt, industry
sources say, starving Tehran of yet more dollar revenue and threatening
to push European winter fuel bills yet higher. LPG, which comprises
propane and butane, comes mainly from oil rather than natural gas, but
shippers and insurers are steering clear of Iranian supplies due to
uncertainty over the scope of the new European Union sanctions. 'It's a
grey area if natural gas includes LPG or not,' said one LPG trader. 'Not
many want to take a risk on that.'" http://t.uani.com/TWUU7f
Reuters:
"South Africa suspended all imports of crude oil from Iran for a
fourth month in September, data showed on Wednesday, as Pretoria
continued to steer away from Iranian shipments because of European
insurance sanctions. In May, imports from Iran stood at 285,524 tonnes,
but since June Africa's biggest economy has replaced shipments from Iran
with crude from other suppliers, especially Saudi Arabia. South Africa
used to import a quarter of its crude from Iran but has come under
Western pressure to cut the shipments as part of sanctions designed to
halt Tehran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. The major supplier in
September was Saudi Arabia, with shipments from the Middle East country
at 759,643 tonnes. Other crude imports originated in Angola, Nigeria and
the United Arab Emirates, with shipments totalling 1.76 million tonnes."
http://t.uani.com/V9hVni
AP:
"The Iranian national symphony orchestra has been disbanded for lack
of funds, musicians said Monday, another sign of the effects of Western
economic sanctions. Orchestra members told the semiofficial ILNA news
agency Monday that they have not rehearsed together and have not been
paid for three months... The step is likely tied to heightening economic
woes in Iran because of government mismanagement and Western sanctions
over Iran's nuclear development program. Another key effect of the
sanctions has been the collapse of the Iranian currency... Kamkar said
the shutdown shows that Iran's rulers are not favorable to the orchestra,
because its budget is a 'small portion of Iran's income from oil.'" http://t.uani.com/PkCaf7
AP:
"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he will urge French
leaders to help strengthen sanctions against Iran and efforts to fight
terrorism. Netanyahu is visiting France on Wednesday and Thursday and
will pay homage to a rabbi and three Jewish schoolchildren killed in
France's worst terrorist attack and worst anti-Semitic attack in years.
It is his first visit to France since the March attacks in Toulouse. In
an interview with Paris Match magazine, he is quoted as saying he wants
to talk to French President Francois Hollande about 'concrete ways to
intensify sanctions against Iran. We also need to work together to fight
terrorism.'" http://t.uani.com/PGVWmv
Syrian Uprising
WashPost:
"Among the many global reactions to Hurricane Sandy's impact on the
U.S. East Coast, this one might be the most amusing. Syrian Army News, a
pro-regime Facebook page, announced that anti-Western 'resistance' forces
working under President Bashar al-Assad and under the Iranian government
secretly engineered the natural disaster using 'highly advanced
technology.' It describes the hurricane as a punishment for threatening
Assad's Syria." http://t.uani.com/SvUXUv
Regional
Meddling
WSJ:
"Iranian naval commanders met Tuesday with their counterparts in
Sudan to discuss joint training exercises, in the wake of explosions at a
weapons factory that Sudan blamed on Israeli jets. New before-and-after
satellite images that have emerged following the blast, meanwhile,
indicate an attack there could have targeted a large shipment of arms,
the images' provider said. The Iranian commanders were part of a
delegation from two Iranian warships that docked at Port Sudan on Monday.
The visit and the training exercise were planned, Sudanese officials
said, and the ships departed from Iran in September. But the meetings
take on a new significance after Sudan alleged that Israeli aircraft
bombed a weapons factory in its capital, Khartoum, on Oct. 24." http://t.uani.com/TT6zxJ
Reuters:
"Two Iranian warships left Sudan on Wednesday after a visit that
drew attention to the countries' military ties less than a week after
Khartoum accused Israel of bombing a Sudanese arms factory. Israel
accuses the Muslim East African country of channeling weapons to the Gaza
Strip, controlled by Iran's ally Hamas, via Egypt's Sinai desert - a
charge Khartoum denies. Last week, a fire at the Yarmouk munitions plant
in the south of Khartoum killed four people, and Sudan said an Israeli
air strike was behind the blast. Israel has not commented on the fire.
Two Iranian warships docked in Port Sudan several days after the blast,
triggering speculation the events were related. Sudan denied this, saying
the warships were on a 'routine' visit." http://t.uani.com/RqQKOJ
Human Rights
Economist:
"Following a harrowing three-day hearing at the Peace Palace in The
Hague, the Iran Tribunal delivered its interim judgment on October 27th.
According to the tribunal, which has no legal standing, the Islamic
Republic of Iran committed crimes against humanity and gross violations of
human rights against its citizens during 'the bloody decade' of 1980s.
The tribunal was set up in 2007 by survivors and families of victims
living in exile and comprises leading jurists from around the world. It
heard statements from experts and witnesses on how the Islamic Republic
systematically crushed political and religious dissent in the decade
following the 1979 revolution, executing 20,000 of its citizens. During
the summer of 1988 alone, 5,000 political prisoners were hanged from
cranes or shot by firing squad under a direct fatwa issued by Ayatollah
Khomeini, the supreme leader. The victims were leftists, students,
members of opposition parties and ethnic and religious minorities-many
originally sentenced for non-violent offences, such as distributing
leaflets or taking part in demonstrations." http://t.uani.com/UfQAKE
Domestic
Politics
AP:
"Iran's Supreme Leader has warned government officials and
politicians against turning their disputes into a public discussion,
calling it 'treason' against the state. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments
were a jab at embattled President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who publicly
lambasted Iran's judiciary chief last week for rejecting his request to
visit Evin prison. Ahmadinejad accused the judiciary of 'unconstitutional'
behavior, claiming that as Iran's president he did not need permission to
visit the prison. Judiciary chief Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani fired back,
saying Ahmadinejad does not understand his constitutional powers." http://t.uani.com/TWVuBT
Opinion &
Analysis
Daily
Telegraph Editorial Board: "The suggestion by
Ehud Barak, Israel's Defence Minister, that Iran has pulled back from the
brink of its confrontation with the West over its nuclear programme is
intriguing. In his interview with The Daily Telegraph today, Mr Barak
argues that Iran's decision to consign a proportion of its enriched
uranium stockpile to civilian use has averted a crisis that could easily
have led to Israel launching air strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear
facilities. By converting its enriched uranium to fuel rods used for
medical isotopes, Iran has helped to reassure the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) that its intentions are peaceful. But that is only
half the story. Iran still possesses significant quantities of enriched uranium,
which could be used for a nuclear weapons programme. At a time when the
Iranian economy is under severe pressure from the wide-ranging sanctions
that have been imposed for Tehran's non-compliance on nuclear matters,
the ayatollahs may have decided to give themselves some breathing space
by playing along with the IAEA's demands, with the aim of returning to
their nuclear weapons programme once the international pressure has
eased. But, as Mr Barak makes clear, that would be a grave
miscalculation. The stand-off between Iran and the Western powers is
unlikely to be resolved so long as Tehran fails to provide satisfactory
guarantees that its remaining stockpiles of enriched uranium are for
peaceful purposes, and not for making atomic bombs. Mr Barak believes
that Israel now has the military capability to launch unilateral air
strikes against Iran - and the Jewish state will not hesitate to use them
while its existence remains under threat." http://t.uani.com/YnbGLm
David Albright,
Christina Walrond, William Witt &Houston Wood in ISIS:
"The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on October 19, 2012
titled 'Tick-Tock Tehran,' which referenced our recent ISIS report,
Iran's Evolving Breakout Potential. We would like to point out a central
conclusion of our report, namely that the chance Iran will 'break out'
and build a nuclear weapon in the next year remains low. A
straightforward method to help keep this probability low is to increase
the frequency of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of
Iran's main uranium enrichment plants. In addition, while we did
not explicitly discuss this subject in our report, Iran is unlikely to
build a gun-type nuclear weapon like the type that destroyed Hiroshima.
If Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon, it would not be able to build
a gun-type significantly faster than the other type of crude fission
weapon, an implosion type that was used to destroy Nagasaki and has
already been pursued by Iran, according to evidence assembled by the
IAEA. Our estimates provide the length of time that Iran would need to
produce enough weapon-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon, if Iran decided
to do so. At this time, it is widely accepted that Iran has not made a
decision to actually build a nuclear weapon, although it appears to be
furthering its capability to make them. Our estimate that Iran can
currently break out in as little as 2-4 months provides adequate time for
the United States to both detect and respond to the breakout before Iran
accumulates enough weapon-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon.
Because Iran fears a military response, it is unlikely to breakout.
We assessed in our study that breakout times could reduce to about one
month during the next year. But in all the scenarios we considered,
the breakout would remain detectable to provide time for U.S. action. As
a result, during at least the next year, our estimates support that the
likelihood of an Iranian breakout will also be low. We share the WSJ's
concern for Iran's growing nuclear weapons capability. Because of
significant uncertainties in charting Iran's nuclear progress, we do not
know what additional nuclear capabilities Iran may have in place one year
from now. As a result, we did not estimate breakout times in late 2013 or
afterwards, and statements suggesting that breakout times are bound to
shrink significantly by then are just speculation at this point.
Depending on what technical obstacles Iran encounters, how much of its
enriched uranium it converts to fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor,
and other variables, breakout times may not shrink at all. But we believe
that even if breakout is detectable during the next year in a timely
manner, every effort should be made to improve the speed at which it
would be detected and reduce the time needed for a U.S. response.
Moreover, Iran may decide to improve its breakout capability by
increasing the number of its centrifuges. In either case, one simple way
to improve the chance of detection is to increase the frequency of
inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency at the Natanz and
Fordow centrifuge enrichment sites. The inspectors are the most credible
witnesses to Iran's activities at these sites. Currently,
inspections occur on average about once every two weeks, and some of them
are unannounced. The IAEA can increase the frequency of both
regular and unannounced inspections, improving the likelihood of prompt
breakout detection. If the inspection frequency became weekly-even if the
Iran were to increase its number of centrifuges significantly compared to
current quantities-the chance of detecting a breakout would be at least
as good as, or even better than, it is today." http://t.uani.com/VDq3YT
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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