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Top
Stories
AP:
"Iran is weighing a more confrontational strategy at possible
renewed nuclear talks with world powers, threatening to boost levels of
uranium enrichment unless the West makes clear concessions to ease
sanctions. Such a gambit - outlined by senior Iranian officials in
interviews this week - could push Iran's nuclear program far closer to
the 'red line' set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for
possible military options. But it also suggests that economic pressures
and diplomacy have pushed Iran to the point of considering an ultimatum-style
end game in efforts to seek relief from the U.S. and European sanctions,
which have targeted Iran's vital oil exports and its ability to use
international banking networks. Mansour Haghighatpour, deputy head of
Iran's influential National Security Committee in parliament, told The
Associated Press that the hardline negotiating formula under
consideration would put Western negotiators on notice that failure to
ease sanctions could open the way for uranium enrichment above 20 percent
- currently the highest level acknowledged by the Islamic Republic."
http://t.uani.com/RXFutJ
Reuters:
"An Iranian partner of Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, a Chinese company
that has denied breaking U.S. sanctions, last year tried to sell
embargoed American antenna equipment to an Iranian firm, according to
documents and interviews. The buyer - an Iranian mobile-phone operator -
says it canceled the deal with Huawei when it learnt the items were
subject to sanctions and before any equipment was delivered. Huawei, the
world's second-largest telecoms equipment maker, uses products from a
U.S. company, Andrew LLC, in some of the systems it sells. Documents
reviewed by Reuters show that Soda Gostar Persian Vista, a Tehran-based
supplier of Huawei equipment in Iran, had offered to sell to MTN Irancell
36 cellular tower antennas made by Andrew for 14,364 euros. The equipment
was to be delivered in Tehran on February 3, 2012, to 'Huawei warehouse
ready for installation,' according to a MTN Irancell purchase order dated
November 30, 2011." http://t.uani.com/R19Laf
Reuters:
"Iran's most powerful authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Thursday
accused the United States and Israel of fomenting divisions among Muslims
to undermine 'Islamic uprisings' across the Middle East. 'By exploiting
inattention ... corrupt American, NATO and Zionist agents are trying to
divert the deluge-like movement of Muslim youth and bring them into
confrontation with one another in the name of Islam,' he said in an
annual message to Iranians who have gone to Saudi Arabia for the haj
pilgrimage. 'They are trying to turn the jihad against colonialism and
Zionism into blind terrorism in the streets ... so that Muslims shed each
other's blood.' Officials in Shi'ite Muslim Iran often describe the 'Arab
Spring' uprisings as an 'Islamic Awakening'. Some of those uprisings have
brought Islamists to power, while others, notably in Syria and Bahrain,
have pitted Sunnis against Shi'ites or Alawites, members of an offshoot
of Shi'ite Islam." http://t.uani.com/R1eloI
Video:
UANI's Work Mentioned On Tonight Show With Jay Leno http://t.uani.com/R1hPrB
Nuclear
Program & Sanctions
Reuters:
"ZTE Corp, the world's fourth-biggest maker of mobile phones and
fifth-ranked telecommunications equipment manufacturer, reported a $310
million quarterly net loss, its first since listing in Hong Kong in 2004,
on shredded margins, project delays and accounting changes in China... An
investigation by Reuters earlier this year found that ZTE had sold to
Iran's largest telecoms firm a powerful surveillance system capable of
monitoring landline, mobile and internet communications. Reuters also
reported that ZTE had sold or agreed to sell Iran embargoed U.S. computer
equipment. The company said later it was curtailing its business in Iran
and had stopped looking for new customers there." http://t.uani.com/XlMTaW
BusinessTech:
"David Maynier, shadow minister of defence and military veterans,
has called on the minister of international relations and cooperation,
Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, to urgently explain why Ambassador Yusuf Saloojee
is back at his post in Oman. In July, South Africa suspended Saloojee,
its former ambassador to Tehran, pending an investigation into his ties
to MTN. Saloojee, who was ambassador to Oman at the time of the
suspension, was named in an ongoing Turkcell suit against MTN for
allegedly taking a $200,000 bribe from the SA mobile operator to help it
win an operating license in Iran. The MTN Group allegedly made a payment
to property attorneys, Gildenhuys Lessing Malatji Inc. on 26 April 2007
towards the purchase of a home for the ambassador in South Africa.
'Ambassador Saloojee was suspended, pending the outcome of an
investigation being conducted by Nyameko Goso, a chief director in the
internal audit division of the Department of International Relations and
Cooperation,' Maynier said in a written statement." http://t.uani.com/TCHwF8
Terrorism
Daily Star:
"Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea launched a vehement attack on
the country's security authorities, accusing them of following
Syrian-Iranian schemes being implemented by Hezbollah. 'Lebanese security
services and security officials are going along with Syrian-Iranian plots
that are being implemented by Hezbollah,' Geagea said in remarks
published Thursday by the Saudi newspaper Al-Watan. Geagea said Lebanon's
top intelligence chief Brig. Gen.Wissam al-Hasan, who was assassinated by
a car bombing in Beirut last week, had dealt a blow to the ambitions of
those who sought to drag Lebanon into the conflict in neighboring Syria.
'The pro-Assad regime, alongside Iran, is clearly and directly involved
in the plot to liquidate Brig. Gen. Hasan, [a scheme] being carried out
by Hezbollah,' Geagea said." http://t.uani.com/XYe8rG
AFP:
"Sudan's links to Iran came under scrutiny on Thursday after
Khartoum accused Israel of a deadly missile strike on a military factory
in the heart of the Sudanese capital. The cabinet met in urgent session
late Wednesday after the government said evidence pointed to Israeli
involvement in the alleged attack at around midnight Tuesday on the
Yarmouk military manufacturing facility in southern Khartoum. Sudan
accused the Jewish state of a similar raid 18 months ago... Israel
refused all comment on the Khartoum allegations, but Amos Gilad, a top
Israeli defence official, called Sudan 'a dangerous terrorist state.' ...
'The regime is supported by Iran and it serves as a route for the
transfer, via Egyptian territory, of Iranian weapons to Hamas and Islamic
Jihad terrorists,' he told his country's army radio on Thursday." http://t.uani.com/PS9Emd
Domestic
Politics
Reuters:
"Iran's judicial authorities have again denied a request by
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Evin prison where his top media
advisor is serving time, Iranian media reported on Wednesday, in another
sign the president's power is on the wane. Ahmadinejad's request was seen
as linked to the detention of his press advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr who
was jailed for six months in September for publishing an article deemed
offensive to public decency. The judiciary turned down his first request
to visit on Sunday, saying it was not in Iran's best interests for him to
spend time on such a visit at a time when the country is facing an
economic crisis. Ahmadinejad replied accusing the judiciary of unconstitutional
conduct." http://t.uani.com/RI1ycr
Opinion &
Analysis
Steve Hanke in
the Financial Post: "Since early September,
there has been an accelerated slide in the value of the Iranian rial
(IRR). This slide has been punctuated by dramatic collapses in the demand
for the rial. With each collapse, there has been something akin to a
'bank run' on rials - with a sharp rise in the black-market (read:
free-market) IRR/USD exchange rate. Ironically, Iranians are clamouring
for U.S. dollars. In a land where the signal-to-noise ratio is very low,
the black-market rate represents an important piece of objective
information. It says a great deal about the state of the Iranian economy
and the populace's expectations. On Sept. 8, 2012, the black-market
IRR/USD exchange rate was 23,040. In the course of just under a month,
after two big sell-offs, the rate settled at 35,000. That is a 34.2%
depreciation in the rial. At this 35,000 IRR/USD rate I first calculated
the monthly inflation rate implied by the rial's depreciation - it was
69.6%. Since the hurdle rate to qualify for hyperinflation is 50% per
month, Iran registered what appears to be the start of the world's 58th
hyperinflation episode. With that, the Iranian authorities swung into
action and introduced a new multiple-exchange-rate regime. There is an
official exchange rate of 12,260 IRR/USD, which is available for Iranians
who are importing essential goods, such as grain, sugar, and medicine. In
addition, there is a 'non-reference' rate, which is available at licensed
dealers and can be used by importers of non-essential goods, such as
livestock, metals and minerals. This rate is purportedly 2% lower than
the black-market rate, though it currently (as of Oct. 10) sits at 25,480
IRR/USD - representing a significant discount relative to the
black-market rate. And then, there is the black-market rate that is
available to anyone willing and able to avoid the ever-watchful eyes of
the police. Among other things, the multiple-exchange-rate regime
generates noise in the Iranian economy. Indeed, more than one price for
the same thing creates prices that lie, and lying prices make it
difficult for Iranians to determine the true cost of what they are
producing and ultimately selling, making the multiple-exchange-rate regime
just one more monkey wrench thrown in the wheels of the economy. So, how
does one stop a hyperinflation? In my experience, as someone who has been
involved in stopping 10 of the 57 known hyperinflations, there are two
sure-fire ways: instituting a currency board or adopting a foreign
currency (dollarization)." http://t.uani.com/RXJDO6
Tobin Harshaw in
Bloomberg: "Facing yet more brutal sanctions and a
tanking economy, the Islamic regime in Iran yesterday attempted a little
pre-Halloween scare job on markets by threatening to shut off all its oil
exports. 'If you continue to add to the sanctions, we will stop our oil
exports to the world,' Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said at a news
conference in Dubai. 'The lack of Iranian oil in the market would
drastically add to the price.' Oil markets decided Iran's attempted trick
was more of a treat: The price of the benchmark grade fell $1.98 a barrel
or 2.3 percent to $86.67, the lowest closing price since July 12.
Obviously, markets are fickle -- yesterday's drop was probably caused by
disappointing earnings reports -- and if Iran really made good on the
threat it would cause some price shock. But Iran's leverage is vastly
reduced: Thanks to the U.S.-led sanctions, exports have fallen to about
900,000 barrels a day, down from 2.2 million a day at the end of 2011.
The truth is that if the mullahs really turned off the tap it would be
manageable for the world and life-threatening for Iran itself. Oil is the
backbone of the economy and makes up about 80 percent the nation's
exports. While the ostensible reason for Western sanctions is forcing an
end to the Iranian nuclear effort, a nifty side effect would be the
collapse of the regime itself under domestic pressure. After all, it took
only the self-immolation of a struggling Tunisian fruit-seller to utterly
transform the Arab world. Reeling from riots over the nation's weakening
currency earlier this month, the regime seems to be trying two somewhat
opposing tracks: tough talk on oil and uranium enrichment, and looking to
negotiate one-on-one with the U.S. Either way, the right response for the
West is to keep increasing the pressure. The Barack Obama administration
deserves kudos on the issue, and Mitt Romney was correct to give credit
where credit was due in Monday's foreign policy debate. It looks like no
matter who wins the U.S. presidential race, Iran's leaders will come out
a loser." http://t.uani.com/THS282
Tony Badran in NOW
Lebanon: "Who killed Brigadier General Wissam
al-Hassan? Following the assassination last Friday, Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt blamed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, Jumblatt
refrained from addressing 'whether Hezbollah or any others [were] behind
the assassination, because we would be doing what Assad wants us to do.'
Jumblatt's concern is understandable. His priority is to avoid internal
Sunni-Shiite sectarian tension and to keep the security situation in
Lebanon under control. However, Hassan's assassination reaches far beyond
Lebanon. There's a compelling case to be made that the elimination of the
influential security chief is part of Iran's contingency planning, from
Iraq to Lebanon, to consolidate Tehran's gains, especially in the event
they lose their Syrian ally. Like Jumblatt, both the Lebanese president
and prime minister linked the murder to Hassan's recent arrest of former
minister, and close friend of Assad's, Michel Samaha. The former minister
was caught red handed and charged with plotting terrorist bombings on
orders from Assad. As a result, Hassan received countless, explicit,
death threats from Syria's allies in Lebanon. Therefore, in light of his
role in the Samaha case, it was easy to see Assad's obvious motive.
However, Jumblatt's comment shows he understands that an operation of
this scale strongly suggests Hezbollah involvement. For one, the nature
of the operation required an apparatus with intelligence and logistical
capabilities of the kind Hezbollah alone possesses. Indeed, none other
than Michel Samaha has attested to this fact. In the transcripts of the
surveillance tapes that led to his arrest, the informant recruited by
Hassan reaffirms to Samaha that 'in Lebanon other than the Party [of
God], there's nothing. The rest are a joke.' Samaha replies in agreement,
adding: 'the party and the structure directly around it-the Syrian Social
Nationalist Party (SSNP) and the Baath.' Needless to say, the SSNP and
the Baath are small-time local thugs. It is Hezbollah that controls the
airport and fields its own intelligence network. However, when we speak
of Hezbollah, we're really speaking of Iran. To be sure, Iran shares
Assad's objectives. Still, even as Tehran has marshaled all the
instruments of its national power to ensure Assad's survival, it also has
had to plan for his potential loss. To achieve both goals, Iran has been
on a region-wide drive to consolidate its assets. Effectively, this means
fortifying its position in Iraq and Lebanon." http://t.uani.com/Rii7xR
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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