Monday, September 22, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran Seeks Give and Take on Islamic State Militants, Nuclear Program








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Reuters: "Iran is ready to work with the United States and its allies to stop Islamic State militants, but would like more flexibility on Iran's uranium enrichment program in exchange, senior Iranian officials told Reuters. The comments from the officials, who asked not to be named, highlight how difficult it may be for the Western powers to keep the nuclear negotiations separate from other regional conflicts. Iran wields influence in the Syrian civil war and on the Iraqi government, which is fighting the advance of Islamic State fighters... 'Iran is a very influential country in the region and can help in the fight against the ISIL (IS) terrorists ... but it is a two-way street. You give something, you take something,' said a senior Iranian official on condition of anonymity. 'ISIL is a threat to world security, not our (nuclear) program, which is a peaceful program,' the official added... Another Iranian official echoed the remarks. Both officials said they would like the United States and its Western allies to show flexibility on the number of atomic centrifuges Tehran could keep under any long-term deal that would lift sanctions in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1od0ZXx

NYT: "Over the years, the United States has shown considerable ingenuity in its effort to slow Iran's production of nuclear fuel: It has used sabotage, cyberattacks and creative economic sanctions. Now, mixing face-saving diplomacy and innovative technology, negotiators are attempting a new approach, suggesting that the Iranians call in a plumber. The idea is to convince the Iranians to take away many of the pipes that connect their nuclear centrifuges, the giant machines that are connected together in a maze that allows uranium fuel to move from one machine to another, getting enriched along the way. That way, the Iranians could claim they have not given in to Western demands that they eliminate all but a token number of their 19,000 machines, in which Iran has invested billions of dollars and tremendous national pride. And if the plumbing is removed, experts at America's national nuclear laboratories have told the Obama administration, the United States and its allies could accurately claim that they have extended the time Iran would need to produce enough fuel for a bomb - and given the West time to react." http://t.uani.com/1v8lRDf

WSJ: "The first full round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers resumed Friday in New York after a two-month gap, with Western officials saying the coming days are critical to reaching a deal by the Nov. 24 deadline... 'The Iranians have said over these many days and weeks how reasonable and flexible they are...and about how their current capacity should be acceptable,' the senior U.S. official said. 'But the status quo is not doable for any of us.' The official said the six power group has been offering 'creative solutions' over the summer but that Iran hadn't been immediately responsive. 'There is a unique opportunity over this next week and a half when heads of state, foreign ministers...are gathered in New York,' the official said. 'There is an opportunity to... see whether the outlines, and...the details of a potential agreement begin to emerge.' A second western diplomat said there were signs in bilateral talks this week that Iran realized it must show more flexibility on enrichment. But the official said it remained unclear whether they could 'significantly narrow the gaps' during the New York talks. Friday's talks started with a brief meeting of top negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 at the U.N. There will be a mix of bilateral and multilateral meetings in coming days at expert and senior official levels." http://t.uani.com/XMn6wD


 
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AP: "With Iran refusing U.S. demands that it gut its uranium enrichment program, the two sides are now discussing a new proposal that would leave much of Tehran's enriching machines in place but disconnected from feeds of uranium, diplomats told The Associated Press Saturday... Time is running out before a Nov. 24 deadline and both sides are eager to break the impasse. Ahead of the resumption of talks Friday, the New York Times reported that Washington was considering putting a new plan on the table that would focus on removing piping connecting the centrifuges. That would allow the U.S. leeway on modifying demands that Iran cut the number of centrifuge machines from 19,000 to no more than 1,500. Two diplomats told the AP that Tehran, which would gain an end to crippling nuclear-related sanctions as part of any deal, was initially non-committal at a bilateral meeting in August. But they say the proposal has now moved to being discussed at the talks Tehran is holding with the U.S. and five other powers, and that the Islamic Republic was listening closely." http://t.uani.com/ZBXrZ7

The Hill: "A group of 31 senators warned Secretary of State John Kerry against making any nuclear concessions to Iran that would pose a threat to the U.S. In a letter spearheaded by Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), the senators expressed grave concern over 'troubling' reports that the administration is considering a deal that would allow Iranian nuclear centrifuges to be 'disconnected' instead of 'dismantled.' 'We have learned that the United States and its P5+1 negotiating partners may now be offering troubling nuclear concessions to Iran in the hopes of rapidly concluding negotiations for a deal,' the lawmakers wrote to Kerry. 'Given that a nuclear Iran poses the greatest long-term threat to the security of the United States, Israel, and other allies, we are gravely concerned about the possibility of any new agreement that, in return for further relief of U.S.-led international sanctions, would allow Iran to produce explosive nuclear material.' In a statement Saturday, Kirk said Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and her team 'are getting desperate, floating these so-called creative solutions to hide the fact that they haven't gotten Iran to agree to a single irreversible step to eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons capability.'" http://t.uani.com/1uYPPuh

Reuters: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met his Iranian counterpart for more than an hour on Sunday and stressed the need to make progress in nuclear negotiations this week on the sidelines of U.N. meetings. Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also discussed the threat posed by Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, a senior State Department official said, without elaborating. 'They spent time reviewing the status of the EU-led P5+1 negotiations on Iran's nuclear program,' the official said. 'They discussed both the progress that has been made and the work that still needs to be done,' the official added. 'Secretary Kerry noted that this week is an opportunity to make additional progress and stressed that it is our intention to do so.' The two diplomats met one-on-one before being joined by others, the official said, adding that they agreed to meet again 'as needed' while in New York to advance the talks." http://t.uani.com/XWuQwD

Reuters: "Iran can no longer 'play for time' in nuclear negotiations with six world powers that resumed on Friday, Germany's top diplomat said, two months ahead of a deadline for a deal that would end economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbing its atomic program. 'We are entering the crucial phase of the E3+3 (six powers) negotiations with Iran,' German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters in New York. 'There is no more room for Iran to play for time,' he said. 'We are willing to offer Iran a fair deal. However, for that to happen, Iran will need to move on the core issues.'" http://t.uani.com/1od0gWh

Military Matters

NYT: "Two Chinese warships have docked at Iran's principal naval port for the first time in history, Iranian admirals told state television on Sunday, adding that both countries would conduct four days of joint naval exercises. On Sunday, Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, reported that Chinese Navy ships involved in protecting shipping in the Gulf of Aden stopped at an Iranian port on Saturday for a 'friendly visit.' One of the vessels was the Changchun, a guided-missile destroyer, the report said. The news agency posted images of one of the destroyers docking in the port of Bandar Abbas, where it was given a military welcome. The Iranian and Chinese Navies were scheduled to start joint exercises on Monday, focusing on rescue missions, Iranian news media reported." http://t.uani.com/1rg17ZQ

Sanctions Relief

FT: "When Saeed - an Iranian businessman - saw his imports of printing machines through Dubai dwindling, he moved to Turkey 'to survive' and to bypass sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme. Escaping from tight Emirati customs security checks on any goods bound for Iran, as well as escalating hurdles on banking transactions and trading licence renewals, the importer opened an office in Istanbul in 2011...  Iran's political relations with its western neighbour have been far from cordial and sometimes strained. Tensions came to the fore in recent years over issues including the conflict in Syria - where Tehran supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad while Ankara backed the opposition - and Turkey's hosting of Nato missile defences. But trade ties have largely remained strong, while sanctions have been double-edged - causing fluctuations but also benefits. If the nuclear talks fail, Dubai and Turkey will remain Iran's main windows for trade. Other than physical trade, done mainly via the Bazargan checkpoint, a lot of unofficial financial transactions are done through Hawala - a traditional transfer system which relies on trusted intermediaries... 'Turkey is like a throat to us, which if closed would cut off our connections to the West,' says Jalal Ebrahimi, in charge of the Iran-Turkey trade council." http://t.uani.com/1ux4XxN

Reuters: "Chinese imports of crude from Iran fell nearly 30 percent from a year earlier to the lowest since October 2013, with Tehran's largest oil client reducing shipments from high levels in recent months as at least one regular buyer went through a planned overhaul. China began stepping up purchases from the OPEC member after a preliminary nuclear deal in November last year eased some sanctions on Iran. China has since accounted for the main portion of Asia's higher Iranian oil imports... China's August imports from Iran came in at 1.32 million tonnes, or 311,653 bpd, down 28.6 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Monday. On a daily basis, August imports fell 44.2 percent from July's 558,865 bpd. 'Nothing political behind that, it's due to technical reasons like maintenances at some Chinese plants,' said a trading executive with direct knowledge of the trade flow." http://t.uani.com/1uYMV95

Islamic State

Reuters: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Friday that Iran had a role to play in a global coalition to tackle Islamic State militants who have seized swaths of Iraq and Syria and proclaimed a caliphate in the heart of the Middle East. 'The coalition required to eliminate ISIL (Islamic State) is not only, or even primarily, military in nature,' Kerry told a United Nations Security Council meeting on Iraq. 'It must be comprehensive and include close collaboration across multiple lines of effort. It's about taking out an entire network, decimating and discrediting a militant cult masquerading as a religious movement,' he said. 'There is a role for nearly every country in the world to play, including Iran.' Kerry's remarks appeared to represent a shift away from previous U.S. statements indicating a reluctance to cooperate with Iran to confront the threat of Islamic State." http://t.uani.com/1B1xMVp

Reuters: "U.S. officials hope to prevent two diplomatic challenges with Iran from colliding next week: the Iranian nuclear program and the threat posed by the Islamic State militant group. Their basic dilemma is how to keep Iran from hardening its stance in the nuclear talks out of a belief, which U.S. officials say would be misguided, that Washington might make nuclear concessions in exchange for help against IS. A related problem is how to address the threat from the Sunni militant group without somehow enlisting the help of Iran, which has extensive influence in Iraq and in neighboring Syria. A third difficulty is whether major Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia will be willing to participate in any coalition against the Islamic State group if Shi'ite Iran played any role." http://t.uani.com/1uSbbdH

Terrorism

AFP: "Iran is a cornerstone of stability in the Middle East in the face of the 'terrorists' rocking the region, President Hassan Rouhani said Monday before leaving for the United Nations. 'The peoples of the region are defending themselves, and will continue to defend themselves, against the terrorists,' Rouhani said in a speech marking the anniversary of the start of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. 'The government and armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will help them everywhere,' he pledged. 'Iran is a cornerstone of stability in this sensitive Middle East region... today dominated by unrest, security problems, massacres and fear.'" http://t.uani.com/Z9r1oZ

WashPost: "Discussions of the terror plot were almost always discreet. So when the towers burned that September day, many al-Qaeda operatives didn't know of their group's involvement. Only Osama bin Laden and several top commanders knew the truth. Now, more than 13 years later, one of those commanders is back and perhaps more dangerous than ever. On Sept. 11, 2001, Muhsin al-Fadhli had been barely more than a boy, aged 19. But today the steely-eyed 33-year-old operative is in Syria, leading a group of clandestine al-Qaeda operatives called 'Khorasan,' which some American officials said may be more dangerous in some respects than the Islamic State... Following a stint in a Kuwaiti prison for funding terrorist activities, he landed in Iran, where the Treasury Department said he was soon leading an Iranian al-Qaeda cell. In that position, it said, he 'facilitate[d] the travel of extremists to Afghanistan or Iraq via Iran. ... In addition to providing funding for al-Qaeda activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, [Fadhli's] network is working to move fighters and money through Turkey to support al-Qaeda affiliated elements in Syria.' http://t.uani.com/1shtv15

Reuters: "Kenyan anti-terror police have detained two Iranian men using forged Israeli passports to enter the East African country, on suspicion that they may have been involved in a plan to carry out an attack there, officials said on Friday... Mwenda Njoka, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior and Coordination of National Government, said the two Iranians had passports identifying them as Israeli nationals and had tried to enter Kenya through its main airport on Thursday. 'The Iranians are suspected to be terrorists, either coming here as their final destination or in transit to another destination. The matter is being handled by the anti-terror police and Interpol,' Njoka told Reuters." http://t.uani.com/1qmGlDN

Opinion & Analysis

Eric Edelman, Dennis Ross & Ray Takeyh in WashPost: "As the United States begins its campaign to destroy the Islamic State, many voices can be counted on to call for cooperation with Iran. Among those has been none other than Secretary of State John Kerry, who insisted that Iran's exclusion from the Paris Conference 'doesn't mean that we are opposed to the idea of communicating to find out if they will come on board, or under what circumstances, or whether there is the possibility of a change.' On the surface, this may seem sensible, as both Washington and Tehran have an interest in defanging a militant Sunni group. But we would be wise to bear in mind two points: first, Kerry's proviso on the possibility of change, and second, that the essential axiom of Middle East politics is that the enemy of my enemy is sometimes still my enemy. The ebbs and flows of the war on terrorism should not be allowed to conceal the fact that the theocratic Iranian regime and its attempt to upend the regional order remains the United States' most consequential long-term challenge in the Middle East. The Islamic republic is not a normal nation-state seeking to realize its legitimate interests but an ideological entity mired in manufactured conspiracies. A persistent theme of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's speeches is that the United States is a declining power whose domestic sources of strength are fast eroding. In today's disorderly region, Iran sees a unique opportunity to project its influence and undermine the United States and its system of alliances. In Afghanistan, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the misapprehension was born that the United States needed Iran's assistance to rehabilitate its war-torn charge, and this misbegotten notion has since migrated from crisis to crisis. The tactical assistance that Iran offered in Afghanistan in 2001 was largely motivated by its fear of being the next target of U.S. retribution. Once it was disabused of that notion, Iran proceeded to lacerate U.S. forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan by providing munitions and sanctuary to various militias. In the meantime, Tehran sought steadily to subvert America's allies in the Persian Gulf and to undermine the security of Israel. Today, in the two central battlefronts of the Middle East - Syria and Iraq - Iran's interests are inimical to those of the United States. Iran's stake in Syria has been made clear by its provision of money, oil, arms, advisers and, most important, Hezbollah shock troops to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The United States' interests, meanwhile, strongly argue against working with Iran against the Islamic State in Syria lest we lose the very Sunni support that will be necessary to eradicate the group. By taking a firm stand in Syria against both Assad and the Islamic State, we can send a strong signal to Iran's leaders that the price for its troublemaking is going to rise. Similarly in Iraq, any putative alliance with Iran would undo much of what the United States has attempted to accomplish there - the creation of a pluralistic, unitary state that does not represent a threat to itself or its neighbors and which is not a base for terrorism... During the past decade, and over two administrations, the United States has been effective in estranging Iran from its European and even Asian customers. But Washington has not affected Iran's position in the Middle East to the same degree. Beyond arms sales to Arab states and attempts to assuage Israeli concerns, the United States has not undertaken a systematic effort to isolate Iran in its immediate neighborhood. Instead of pursuing the chimera of cooperation with the likes of Khamenei, Washington should contest all of Iran's regional assets. From the Shiite slums of Baghdad to the battlefields of Syria, Iran should be confronted with a new, inhospitable reality as it searches for partners. The United States and Iran stand at opposite ends of the spectrum of Middle East politics. The Islamic republic's ideological compulsions and sheer opportunism make it an unlikely ally for the West. The coincidence of mutual opposition to a radical Sunni terrorist group should not blind us to the enduring threat that the mullahs represent." http://t.uani.com/1rgafxj

Philip Smyth in FP: "Armed men posing with severed heads, massacres of mosque-goers during Friday prayers, massive reliance on transnational jihadists -- these are crimes that are usually associated with the Islamic State (IS). However, they're also the actions of some of Iraq's growing Shiite militia organizations, which are playing an increasingly prominent role in fighting the Sunni jihadists. These groups, many of which have deep ideological and organizational links to Iran, are sweeping away what is left of any notion of the Baghdad government's authority -- and represent a massive challenge to President Barack Obama's stated goal of working with an inclusive Iraqi government to push back IS. Over 50 Shiite militias are now recruiting and fighting in Iraq. These groups are actively recruiting -- drawing potential soldiers away from the Iraqi army and police and bringing fighters into highly ideological, anti-American, and rabidly sectarian organizations. Many of these trainees are not simply being used to push back Sunni jihadists, but in many cases form a rear guard used to control districts that are supposedly under Baghdad's control. Shiite militias have embedded themselves within the structures of the Iraqi government, which has become far too reliant on their power to contemplate cracking down on them. Together, they have committed horrifying human rights abuses: In early June, Shiite militias, along with Iraqi security forces, reportedly executed around 255 prisoners, including children. An Amnesty International report from June detailed how Shiite militias regularly carried out extrajudicial summary executions, and reported that dozens of Sunni prisoners were killed in government buildings. The militias also played a leading role in the liberation of the besieged Shiite Turkmen town of Amerli. Kataib Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group and direct Iranian proxy, even used Iraqi government helicopters to deliver arms and other supplies during the battle. Just as IS has captured and used U.S.-supplied vehicles, U.S.-made M1A1 Abrams tanks provided to the Iraqi government have flown sectarian Shiite banners and supported Kataib Hezbollah operations. Those tanks are not alone: U.S.-made armored Humvees, which Kataib Hezbollah once targeted during the Iraq War with rocket-propelled grenades (when driven by Americans), have also been taken by the militia and used in operations. Iran has led the way in developing Iraq's Shiite militias. Since May 2013, Tehran has bolstered its network of new and old Iraqi proxy groups to provide a steady flow of fighters to Syria. Some of these Iraqi forces, who had been fighting on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, redeployed back to Iraq and form the nucleus of newer militia groups which are currently fighting the Baghdad government's Sunni enemies. Due to Iran's Syria-focused recruitment efforts, Tehran's proxies also had a leg up on pulling in new fighters for the Iraq front. In April, Iran-backed groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Badr, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq called for fresh recruits to fight in Iraq. Eventually, these calls morphed into Iraqi Shiite militias spinning off popular committee-based militias under their command. While the creation of so many groups may seem unnecessarily complicated, it actually helps create the image of wide-ranging popular support for militias promoting Iran's policies and ideology. Furthermore, it allows established groups to more easily separate new, less-experienced volunteers from career militiamen... The growth of these pro-Iranian Shiite militias, and many more like them, helps demonstrate Iran's goals for the domination of Shiite Iraq. These groups not only benefit from Iran's patronage and organizational capabilities -- they also all march to Tehran's ideological tune. They are loyal to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran's ideology of absolute wilayat-e faqih, which grants the supreme leader ultimate political and religious authority. They also follow the model of Iran's Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, and are intent on executing Iran's will in the region and furthering Iran's 'Islamic Revolution.' Just as IS's stated aim is to erase the borders that were drawn in the Middle East following the end of World War I, Iranian-backed Shiite militias are also taking part in this process. The cross-pollination between Syrian and Iraqi Shiite militias has eroded national boundaries as surely as the Sunni jihadist campaign: From the beginning of their involvement in both conflicts, Shiite militias have adopted a narrative that they will 'defend shrines' or 'defend Shiites,' no matter their geographic location." http://t.uani.com/ZC0MYf

Emily Landau in Times of Israel: "As we move to the November 24 deadline for P5+1-Iran negotiations on a comprehensive nuclear deal, the issue of Iran's past weaponization activities is becoming critical. Iran's most recent stonewalling on the IAEA's outstanding questions regarding what it calls the 'Possible Military Dimensions' (PMD) of Iran's program was evident when Iran missed the August 25th deadline for providing answers (then claiming it never agreed to the deadline). Meanwhile, Iran continued to prevent entry into the military facility at Parchin, where it is suspected of carrying out activities relating to its military nuclear program. A debate has been ongoing over the past year among officials and non-official arms control experts on the importance of confronting Iran on the weaponization issue. In early June, my INSS colleagues Ephraim Asculai, Shimon Stein and I made the case for the need to include the weaponization aspects of Iran's program. In a recent article in Foreign Policy, Jeffrey Lewis claims that making Iran come clean about its past nuclear weapons activities before a deal is secured is 'a terrible idea', potentially devastating for the prospects of a nuclear deal. His piece underscored for me the need to re-emphasize what the real problem is, and why it is truly imperative to press Iran on this issue. Iran must be pressed on its military nuclear activities, not in order to humiliate it, nor to serve the agenda of those Lewis describes who are 'ideologically opposed to any deal at all.' Quite the contrary. Insisting Iran be confronted with the evidence has everything to do with enhancing the prospects of getting a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran. Not just any nuclear deal - a good and effective nuclear deal. A deal that will actually eliminate Iran's ability to quickly move to a military nuclear capability at a time of its choosing. Lewis does concede that Iranian disclosures of past military work might possibly boost the international community's ability to forge adequate verification measures for a comprehensive deal. But that is only part of the story. The more important reason for insisting that Iran admit its past work on a military nuclear program is to dispense with Iran's narrative that it has 'done no wrong' in the nuclear realm. You might be thinking: Iran's narrative? Is this negotiation about narratives or state interests? When considering how negotiations have unfolded over the past decade, the answer is that of course interests are the basis for Iran's desperate attempt to hold on to its breakout capability. But narratives are woven into the negotiations dynamic, and can make a huge difference as far as getting the deal the P5+1 say they want. Iran's narrative plays to its clear advantage. Since 2003, Iran has stuck by its story that it has 'done no wrong' in the nuclear realm; it repeats incessantly that no corroborative evidence has been produced that it has worked on a military program. Iran's ability to hang on to its story is a powerful asset in negotiations, paving the way for the bizarre dynamic whereby the P5+1 negotiators demand that Iran back away from its military ambitions, while Iran denies these ambitions exist. As incredible as it may sound - and even though most officials (and experts) know that Iran has worked on a military program - the narrative has created enormous difficulties for negotiators over the years. The steadfast Iranian claim has effectively undercut the alternative P5+1 narrative, and has considerably weakened the hand of the international negotiators facing Iran. Indeed, for years the question mark floating over Iran's military activities has bolstered those who accuse the West of building a false case against Iran, as it did regarding Iraq's WMD capabilities. Even today, Iran's dogged narrative enables some of the P5+1 parties - most notably Russia - to continue to insist that there is no evidence of military nuclear activity in Iran. Iran's narrative must be discredited, and the charade must end. In fact, if Iran was confronted with clear-cut evidence that it had worked on a military nuclear program for years, the case for taking a harsh international approach would gain considerable traction. It would help the P5+1 tremendously with their demand for significant dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. Today Iran refuses outright to even consider any dismantlement, because, of course, 'it has done no wrong.'" http://t.uani.com/1B1DW7V
  

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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