Saturday, September 20, 2014

Eye on Iran: A Year Later: Iranian Nuclear Talks Go from Promise to Doubt








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LAT: "Hassan Rouhani won world leaders' warm embrace a year ago when he arrived at the United Nations General Assembly in New York as Iran's new president, speaking of reconciliation and offering a new era in relations between his nation and the West. But when Rouhani arrives next week for this year's U.N. session, diplomats will be pondering a different question: What went wrong? A year after that auspicious beginning, tensions with the West are as high as ever, and 10 months of negotiations over the toughest issue in the relationship - Iran's nuclear program - are at an impasse. Now Western leaders want to know Iran's intentions and if Rouhani is even calling the shots in Tehran on the nuclear issue and overall foreign policy... But in recent months, signs suggest the staunchly anti-Western Khamenei is directly managing the negotiations. He appears determined to sharply increase the country's uranium enrichment capability in seven years, and not roll it back, as the West demands. Rouhani, who has lost a series of domestic political battles to conservatives, has taken a harder line on the nuclear talks. In a news conference two weeks ago, he expressed doubt that the U.S. has enough 'goodwill' to negotiate an end to the standoff... Gary Samore, Obama's former top advisor on nuclear proliferation, said Khamenei 'seems to be very stubborn and very confident that he can retain his enrichment capability.' While the Iranian leader may be wrong, 'what matters is what he believes,' said Samore, who is now with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government." http://t.uani.com/XnV2iW

Reuters: "Zarif, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, complained about what he described as unreasonable demands by Western powers in the nuclear talks but added that Tehran was committed to resolving the decade-long nuclear stand. 'We are committed to resolving this issue, we want to resolve this issue,' he said, though he said later that Iran is 'totally distrustful of the United States'. Iran, diplomats close to the talks said, appears unwilling to reduce the number of its centrifuges to below 10,000. But that would be an unacceptable for the six powers, who diplomats say are aiming to have a deal in place that leaves Iran in a position where it would need at least one year to produce enough high enriched uranium for a single bomb - the so-called 'breakout' capacity. 'On the question of enrichment we have practically made no progress,' a senior Western diplomat said. 'The six want that in case the agreement is broken and the nuclear activities restart towards a military objective, that we have a breakout capacity of a year.' Diplomats said a breakthrough in the New York negotiations was unlikely. 'Things remain blocked,' the senior Western diplomat said. 'New York will be vital to see if we can break the impasse.' Depending on how the negotiations among senior foreign ministry officials go in the coming days, another Western diplomat said foreign ministers might join the talks late next week 'if good progress is being made or if there's a blockage.'" http://t.uani.com/1tnxvM3

Reuters: "Western powers told Iran on Thursday it must step up cooperation with a U.N. watchdog investigation into suspected atomic bomb research if it wants to get a broader nuclear deal that would ease sanctions on the oil producer... A report by the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency in early September showed Iran had failed to answer questions about what the IAEA calls the possible military dimensions of the country's nuclear program by an Aug. 25 deadline. The EU said it was disappointed with the 'very limited progress' in that investigation in a statement at a quarterly meeting of the IAEA's board of governors. 'The EU underlines that resolving all outstanding issues (between Iran and the IAEA) will be essential to achieve a comprehensive, negotiated long-term settlement,' it added... U.S. envoy Laura Kennedy echoed the EU's message, telling reporters outside the IAEA meeting: 'We do remain concerned ... about the pace of progress in addressing the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program.' ... 'We urge Iran to intensify its engagement with the agency,' Kennedy, the U.S. envoy, said. 'Concerns about the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program must be addressed as part of any comprehensive solution.' 'Only when this happens will it be possible to have confidence that Iran's nuclear program is and will remain exclusively peaceful,' she said." http://t.uani.com/1uWtc8T


 
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "The No. 2 and 3 U.S. diplomats will hold bilateral talks with Iranian officials about Tehran's nuclear program on Wednesday and Thursday in New York, the U.S. State Department said. 'Deputy Secretary of State William J. Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs Wendy R. Sherman, and Senior Advisor Jacob J. Sullivan will travel to New York for consultations with Iranian officials September 17-18,' it said in a statement... 'Following these bilateral meetings, Under Secretary Sherman will participate in the comprehensive nuclear negotiations of the P5+1 and European Union with Iran beginning September 18,' the State Department added in its statement." http://t.uani.com/1r3Ip7D

AFP: "Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Wednesday accused Washington of being 'obsessed' with sanctions as a new round of high-stakes bilateral nuclear negotiations opened in New York. 'We are committed to resolving this issue,' Zarif told a US think-tank, as a State Department official confirmed to AFP that the two sides had resumed talks here late Wednesday. But Zarif argued part of the problem blocking a deal was the US 'infatuation' with sanctions... 'Sanctions have become an end in themselves. Sanctions do not serve any purpose,' he argued, saying during the time that the Iranian economy has been slapped with Western measures the number of the country's centrifuges has soared from 200 to 20,000." http://t.uani.com/1BPU4vt

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Indian imports of Iranian oil rose by nearly half to 271,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January-August from a year ago, when refineries cut purchases due to worries about insurance coverage for processing crude from Tehran, data from trade sources shows... India, the Islamic state's top client after China, had boosted imports in the first quarter of this year to make up for the cuts in 2013 and to hit its target of importing 220,000 bpd from Iran in the fiscal year to March 31. India shipped in 273,500 bpd of Iranian oil in August, up 30 percent from the previous month and about 81-percent higher than a year ago, the data showed. Shipments in August were bolstered as Indian Oil Corp., the country's biggest refiner, bought Iranian oil after a two-month gap, shipping in nearly 2 million barrels. State-run IOC is not a regular buyer of Iranian oil as it has a deal to buy only 24,000-25,000 bpd, or about 9 million barrels, from the country in 2014/2015." http://t.uani.com/1p2lG8A

Iraq Crisis

Guardian: "Iran has intensified its criticism of the US-led coalition against the Islamic State (Isis), with key officials saying they doubt Washington intends to destroy the terrorist group and the president calling it 'ridiculous'. Following Iran's exclusion from an international conference in Paris aimed at confronting Isis, senior figures in the Islamic Republic have said the US-led coalition will do little against the group and is doomed to fail. Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, described the US-led coalition against Isis as 'ridiculous' in an interview with NBC News on Wednesday. 'Are Americans afraid of getting casualties on the ground in Iraq?' he asked. 'Are they afraid of their soldiers being killed in the fight they claim is against terrorism?' Senior government and military officials in Tehran have in recent days argued the US's Isis strategy is intended to deliver it a greater military presence in the Middle East." http://t.uani.com/1r3KIYn

Human Rights

WashPost: "A senior Iranian official said Wednesday that Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter detained in Tehran nearly two months ago, is being interrogated on unspecified charges by judicial authorities. 'He is facing interrogation in Iran for what he has done as an Iranian citizen,' Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in an interview with NPR. Zarif did not say why Rezaian, a dual American and Iranian citizen, was arrested or what charges he may be facing. He said Iran's judiciary has 'no obligation to explain' any charges to the United States. 'His lawyers know. He knows his charge. I'm not supposed to know, but he knows his charge,' Zarif said, adding that the judiciary operates independently." http://t.uani.com/1r25EjJ

Daily Telegraph: "The six Iranian singers who were arrested for appearing in a viral video dancing to Pharrell Williams' song 'Happy' have been sentenced to six months in prison and 91 lashes.  The group became famous in May when their music video for the hit song circulated on YouTube, racking up more than 150,000 views before attracting the attention of Iranian authorities... Authorities arrested the group for contravening Iran's strict vulgarity laws, which prohibit public displays of dancing, and paraded the six on state television, forcing them to express remorse for their behaviour. The Islamic Republic condemned the video as a 'vulgar clip which hurt public chastity' and in a trial on Wednesday sentenced the participants to a suspended sentence of six months in prison. The director of the video was handed a suspended sentence of one year, while the whole group was told they would receive 91 lashes each. 'A suspended sentence becomes null and void after a certain period of time,' their lawyer, Farshid Rofougaran, told Iran Wire. 'When it's a suspended sentence, the verdict is not carried out, but if during this period a similar offense is committed, then the accused is subject to legal punishment and the suspended sentence will then be carried out as well.'" http://t.uani.com/XKXxwg

IHR: "The execution wave continues in Iran. According to the official and unofficial reports, in the last 30 days at least 95 people have been executed in different Iranian cities... Five people were hanged publicly in the cities of Shiraz and Sardasht (Province of Fars, Southern Iran) early Thursday morning September 18, reported the Iranian state media." http://t.uani.com/1wsyR7Y

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "In a press conference yesterday, Sept. 17, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohamamd Ali Jaffari, spoke about relations with the administration of President Hassan Rouhani, Iran's support for Iraqi groups in Amerli and Iran's position on the US-led coalition against Islamic State group (IS). In regard to relations between the administration and IRGC, Jaffari said, 'Although there were doubts in the beginning, the officials from the administration also reached the conclusion that [the IRGC's] ability in construction cannot be ignored. At the moment, there is good cooperation and interaction between [the IRGC] and the administration.' When Rouhani took office in August 2013, one of his goals was to decrease the economic and also political role of the IRGC." http://t.uani.com/YV3ZSy

Opinion & Analysis

Frederic Hof in FT: "As John Kerry, US secretary of state, works to build a coalition to defeat Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, the piratical jihadi group presiding mainly over desert straddling Iraq and Syria, he faces demands from Syria, Russia and Tehran itself to include Iran. But if Tehran desires to join others to defeat the bogus caliphate, it must first reverse policies in Iraq and Syria that keep Isis in business... The US and its coalition partners - Europeans and regional states alike - see the creation of an inclusive and competent government in Baghdad as the key to stability, legitimacy and the erasure of Isis in Iraq. Not Iran, though. One would think its interests would centre on a loosely unified, if militarily marginal, Iraq, and that it would avoid sectarian policies alienating Arab Sunnis and encouraging Kurds to secede from a terminally broken, permanently dysfunctional Iraq. Either way, it is entitled to its own calculation; the salient fact is that its current approach in Iraq opposes the interests of the US and its partners. Concerning Syria, the administration of President Barack Obama has rightly said the negligence, brutality and grotesque sectarianism of the Assad regime is the single most important factor in the ascent of Isis. Indeed, Mr Assad and the caliphate are collaborating - at least in a de facto manner - in trying to eliminate the nationalist opposition to both parties in western Syria.  The Obama administration has made clear that collaboration with Mr Assad would be immoral and self-defeating: that as long as his regime runs part of Syria, Isis cannot be eliminated. Tehran, however, remains firmly committed to the survival of its client-employee in Damascus. Whatever his value to Isis's recruiting campaign, he serves Iran's pursuit of power in western Syria and Lebanon. In sum, Iran has helped build the ersatz caliphate. So what role could it play in a coalition dedicated to the ultimate defeat of Isis? Continue to back Iraqi Shia militia as they cleanse Baghdad of Sunni Arab residents? Suggest the west and regional partners sweep under the carpet the war crimes of the Assad regime, and sell to Syria's people the outrageous proposition that their president can save them from terrorism? Iran can join the anti-Isis coalition when it adopts and implements policies consistent with the grouping's mission. Every effort should be made diplomatically to persuade it to do so. But unless and until it behaves in ways contrary to the interests of Isis, Iran should be regarded as it is: a dangerous and destructive adversary." http://t.uani.com/Zrxf3t

ICHRI: "Ahead of President Rouhani's visit to New York next week, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran released a video today, bringing into sharp focus the disconnect between Rouhani's rhetoric on domestic affairs and the reality on the ground. The Campaign urges diplomats, the international media, and experts who will meet Rouhani during his visit to express their serious concerns regarding Iran's continued abysmal human rights record. The video, Rhetoric and Reality: One Year of Rouhani's Presidency, contrasts Rouhani's many pledges to usher in a new era in which the fundamental rights of Iranians would be protected, with the repression that remains firmly in place in Iran, more than one year after Rouhani assumed office. The record of the past year speaks for itself. The number of executions continues to distinguish Iran as the highest state executioner in the world on a per capita basis. Freedom of expression, assembly, and association remain highly restricted. Iran remains the second largest prison for journalists in the world. Gender policies aiming to exclude women from public life, particularly in higher education and employment, have increased. Hundreds of political prisoners remain behind bars, many imprisoned following the disputed 2009 election. The extra-judicial house arrest of the 2009 presidential candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, together with Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, is nearing its fourth year." http://t.uani.com/1uWAxp7
  

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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